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The Long-Term Catcher Dilemma Poll!
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 14, 2015 0:17:42 GMT -5
The descriptions of the options are just too long to fit in the poll form!
Obviously, if Vazquez struggles with his elbow coming back, that changes everything. Some degree of struggle would, for instance, turn Option A into Option B. Please assume he makes a good recovery.
If you pick a keep-them-both-for-a-while options (Group 2, Options F through I) and already know which one you'd trade if it doesn't work out, you can note that here; otherwise we'll assume that you'll decide that when the time comes, which only seems logical.
If you want to make Swihart into a 3B, OF, or molecular research biologist, pick "Other" and explain yourself!
Otherwise, comments about the catcher situation should continue in the existing thread, or else we'll all go nuts. Comments about the poll results are of course fine.
Assuming Vazquez recovers well, what's your long-term C plan?
Group 1: I'm fairly committed to trading one of them when and if Vazquez is healthy, and ...
A) I'm fairly committed to trading Swihart and keeping Vazquez. A lot would have to happen in the next year or two, performance-wise, to make me change my mind.
B) I'm leaning towards trading Swihart and keeping Vazquez, but what happens in the next year or two might make me switch.
C) I want to trade one and keep one, but I really don't know who stays and who goes yet.
D) I'm leaning towards trading Vazquez and keeping Swihart, but what happens in the next year or two might make me switch.
E) I'm fairly committed to trading Vazquez and keeping Swihart. A lot would have to happen in the next year or two, performance-wise, to make me change my mind.
Group 2: I want to try a two-catcher solution for at least a year or two, maybe even three, after Vazquez returns (i.e., through 2017 and probably 2018), playing Swihart as much at 1B as his bat allows. If Swihart hits well enough to be an above-average regular 1B (first-division starter), obviously I keep them both and have Swihart double as the backup C. That's the dream!
However ...
F) I'd still want to keep them both long-term, even if Swihart's bat never develops enough to play at 1B at all.
G) Swihart only needs to hit well enough to back up 1B for me to keep them both. If he doesn't, I'd trade one TBD.
H) Swihart only needs to hit well enough to be a regular 1B (although not a first-division starter) for me to keep them both. If he doesn't, I'd trade one TBD.
I) I'm only keeping both if that optimum scenario materializes: Swihart hits well enough to be an above-average regular at 1B. If he doesn't, I'd trade one TBD.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 14, 2015 7:13:40 GMT -5
I went with B. A lot would have to change for me to think Swihart is going to be an above average defensive catcher. I tend to believe B-ref's defensive ratings (below average) of him more than Fangraphs' based on watching every game he has caught. I also don't see enough of a bat to get excited about. His speed is awesome and he'll probably hit for average, but he doesn't walk enough or hit for enough power to be like Varitek or Posey. Because of Vazquez' defense, I think his floor is much higher than Swihart's. If Vazquez hits like an average catcher, it might be impossible for Swihart to be better. I personally think he'll end up hitting like Hanigan which would be enough for him to be one of the best catchers in baseball. Yes Swihart is young and will continue to improve, but there's just too far for him to go for me to think it's likely. I'd definitely hold onto both next year and make sure that Vazquez' arm comes back and doesn't get worse as a hitter. Swihart's pitch framing is just average at best so far which is another tip in Vazquez' direction.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 14, 2015 7:19:09 GMT -5
I hate these options. How about an option for: I want to keep both long enough to have more information on the various questions surrounding each and then make a decision from there. That could be next trade deadline or after next season, but does not appear to be this offseason.
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Post by waterview on Sept 14, 2015 7:28:02 GMT -5
I really like both of these guys, but CV is more valuable to the RS (if fully healthy) due to his astonishing defense. You don't trade a young Molina, especially one who seemed to be showing signs of figuring out the offensive part too. Swihart -- whom I also like a lot -- is such a valuable trade chip that in the long term we're likely to need what he brings back more than keeping him along with with CV. We obviously don't consider a trade this winter; everything is predicated on CV showing he is back to full health.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 14, 2015 7:31:29 GMT -5
l . Keep both until it is determined that Vasquez is healthy and able to handle the rigors of catching on a semi regular basis. See which one will emerge as No. 1. Wait for the offers to come in even if it takes a year, then pull the trigger on a trade for a SP. I wouldn't consider Swihart for 1B as he could develop into an elite catcher. |
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Post by mandelbro on Sept 14, 2015 8:49:32 GMT -5
Voted C.
This poll seems to have been constructed on the premise that Vazquez is a cornerstone backstop going forward, and that the only uncertainty remaining is whether or not Swihart is one as well. A premise that I would not take for granted.
Swihart has a lot of learning to do defensively, and needs to at least prove his offensive success so far is not a mirage. Vazquez has to recover from injury (at a position where that represents a real caveat) and establish himself as more than a black hole offensively. I'm not convinced either establishes themselves as the answer in 2016, much less both doing so and presenting us with a neat trade one/keep one scenario.
I say wait and see. Once I'm ready to roll with one of Vazquez/Swihart for 120 games a year, then I'm trading the other guy. And I'll gladly risk 'trading lower' for the assurance that I'm coming out of the whole process with a catcher.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 14, 2015 8:54:24 GMT -5
I hate these options. How about an option for: I want to keep both long enough to have more information on the various questions surrounding each and then make a decision from there. That could be next trade deadline or after next season, but does not appear to be this offseason. Most of the options assume to wait and see what happens in the next year or two, but answers where you're leaning now. Everyone should have some kind of bias at this point in time regarding which and how much they prefer each catcher with caveats while allowing the possibility of changing your mind in the future. I see no problem with this poll. There was no option for trading anyone right now. |
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Post by soxcentral on Sept 14, 2015 9:00:30 GMT -5
Catching is too difficult to replace, too important to the success of a team, and takes too long to develop to rush sending one of them out at the first sign they're both healthy. I went with Option G, and am excited about the prospect of having high-caliber depth there for at least a couple years.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 14, 2015 9:08:37 GMT -5
I lean toward keeping CV. Love his D depending on the elbow of course. But I would only move BS for a top of the rotation pitcher to front the rotation.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 14, 2015 9:32:47 GMT -5
I am keeping both , unless I get blown away but I am not actively shopping them. To ma catchers take a beating you can go from having a backup to looking for a catcher off the scrap heap. Especially having two cheap catchers for almost 6 years is too good to be true.
Imagine if Swihart's bat picks up having a catcher that can pitch hit. I am actually dying to see Vasquez catch again.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 14, 2015 9:34:19 GMT -5
I went with I for now, but I reserve the option to change it to B. As others have noted, I don't think we have the needed information as of now. The question in my eyes is, what is Swihart worth on the trade market. It's always something that is tough to estimate, and when you do the estimates are commonly wrong. If the situation presents itself where you could turn Swihart into a #1-#2 pitcher with some team control, and go with Vazquez who still should be a really good catcher, I think you take it.
As of now, if Vazquez comes back healthy next year, I would go with Vazquez and Hanigan on the 25 man, and start Swihart in AAA. We are fairly top heavy when it comes to our catching depth, after Swihart, Vazquez, and Hanigan there isn't a ton there. We've seen that bite us in the butt this year. Could be a reason to keep them both.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 14, 2015 9:49:22 GMT -5
A trade would be a lot easier to stomach if the Sox had a potential backup catcher somewhere in the system. A FedEx or Exposito or someone. That's probably one of the things the Sox would want back in a trade.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Sept 14, 2015 11:22:34 GMT -5
I hate these options. How about an option for: I want to keep both long enough to have more information on the various questions surrounding each and then make a decision from there. That could be next trade deadline or after next season, but does not appear to be this offseason. Isn't this basically Option C...? |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 14, 2015 12:22:04 GMT -5
I hate these options. How about an option for: I want to keep both long enough to have more information on the various questions surrounding each and then make a decision from there. That could be next trade deadline or after next season, but does not appear to be this offseason. Isn't this basically Option C...? Sort of. But I think there is still a pretty solid chance that one of the two doesn't make it as a starting catcher, in which case keeping both might make sense. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 14, 2015 12:35:06 GMT -5
I'm in between choices D and E. I don't believe that Swihart will be Posey, Jr, but I do believe he'll be a strong defensive catcher who will hit like a younger version of Jason Varitek. I'm not convinced that Molina will hit that much, but I'm not overly convinced that he won't be an asset with the bat, either. That's to be determined. I certainly like Swihart's odds and ceiling offensively a lot better.
I know pitch framing is important but I don't know that it overrides the difference in their offense, which to me, is easier to quantify.
So....if I were a betting a man, which I'm not because I'd lose way too often, I'd bet on Swihart over Vazquez and would prefer to deal Vazquez. Of course if Vazquez's offense comes to the point where he's much more than a bottom of the order hitter, then it can be reconsidered.
The good news is the Sox don't have to make that decision this offseason. They don't know how Vazquez will come back. There's still time to see how both develop before making the decision.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 14, 2015 12:40:42 GMT -5
For a young catcher who was ticketed for a full season of AAA, I am very impressed with Blake Swihart. For those of you down-grading his defense, he is 23 with a few years of experience behind the plate. For those of you who are not impressed with his offense, have you missed the last 6 - 8 weeks?
This kid is very valuable. This kid has made so much improvement in the last 4 months it is pretty amazing. He has, IMO, never came across as feeling out of his element or over his head.
His defense has improved greatly, and in another year he may be (well) above average. As for his offense, a switch hitting catcher who has the ability to hit 30 doubles with 10 homers a year is exceptional.
CV may pull a Wieters this spring and we definitely can't move either at this time. CV may be outstanding, but I'm surprised more of you don't like Swihart better!
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Post by oldfan on Sept 14, 2015 14:03:21 GMT -5
Will both have 1 year AST at the end of 2015 and both be FA in 2021?
Not sure how complete year on DL affects AST - I assume it counts if on MLB roster ?
If so "C" lots of time.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 14, 2015 14:10:25 GMT -5
Isn't this basically Option C...? Sort of. But I think there is still a pretty solid chance that one of the two doesn't make it as a starting catcher, in which case keeping both might make sense. Well, there's no chance worth considering that a healthy Vazquez is not a starting-caliber catcher, given his defense. (That we wait until we get a reading of his health (which might render the problem moot) is a given. The clock on the decision starts when he hits 90% of where you expect him to end up.) So, you're saying, you'd rather hang on to them both until Swihart demonstrates that he's essentially a bust, and is just a backup? No, you wouldn't. You'd much rather trade him as soon as his stock started heading downwards, before it went any further. So that's option C. I constructed the poll the way I did because I wanted to know how many people think a medium-term two-starting-catcher solution makes sense. You either think it does or think it doesn't. A lot depends on what you think the odds are of Swihart being a good enough hitter to be a combo 1B and backup C, and how you weigh the positives of that eventual solution versus the negatives of waiting around trying to see if it does. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 14, 2015 14:35:48 GMT -5
I think your assumptions are way, way, way too strong on Vazquez.
A) I don't care how good his defense is, if he's hitting a Sandy Leon line, even just with the optics, it'd be hard to start him. Leon was tolerated because he was a stopgap while Hanigan got healthy. But that's a much harder thing to do if we're talking "long-term, 6-year player."
B) Then of course, there's the fact that you're assuming his defense will be as otherworldly at the major league level as you think it is. It's entirely possible after missing a year to Tommy John, his arm just never is the same, his mechanics don't come back, he isn't as agile, etc etc.
Seriously, for me, my answer to the question in the poll is, "IDFK, ask me again in a year when we've got a year of data on Vazquez post-injury and Swihart post-actually-being-ready-for-the-majors-in-theory and then I'll tell you whether they should keep one or both." This also depends on what trades become available, doesn't it?
And yes, I think you may miss out on the chance to trade Swihart for his peak value by doing this, but to find out whether you have a potential long-term solution at catcher, I think that's absolutely worth it.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 14, 2015 14:38:58 GMT -5
Sort of. But I think there is still a pretty solid chance that one of the two doesn't make it as a starting catcher, in which case keeping both might make sense. Well, there's no chance worth considering that a healthy Vazquez is not a starting-caliber catcher, given his defense. (That we wait until we get a reading of his health (which might render the problem moot) is a given. The clock on the decision starts when he hits 90% of where you expect him to end up.) So you're saying there is a chance, because we can't be sure Vazquez will be healthy. That is the point. And yes, I do believe that chance is worth considering. Despite your confidence that his pitch framing will carry him - and as much as I appreciate the work you've done on that - I am not completely sold that the value you have determined it to have is accurate. I still think there are questions as to whether Vazquez will hit enough - even with defense and pitch framing - to be an above average starting catcher. And I understand that with the value you have assigned to pitch framing that is preposterous, but again, I don't think your valuation is infallible. I also think there are questions with Swihart and how his defense and pitch framing will develop and whether his bat will make up for it. Of course that is not what I'm saying. I'm saying that you hold this off season and see how it plays out. The reason I said "Sort of" is because I'm not sure the ultimate end-game is trading either of them. Of course if we knew which one would bust, we could pick to trade that one, but as of right now you can't trade Vazquez, because he would be way undervalued coming off TJ and you can't trade Swihart because going into next year with Vazquez as your starter is less than ideal. If each guy has a 75% chance of becoming a star, then the probability is only a little more than 50% that they both do. I think it would be foolish to try and pick which one it will be. So I think you hold for now and a year from now there is a somewhat better than 50% chance you're trading one of them. See - I don't really have a ton of confidence in Swihart as a medium term 1B option, but I think the other questions still make it better to hold both then to sell now. |
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 14, 2015 14:54:02 GMT -5
Will both have 1 year AST at the end of 2015 and both be FA in 2021? Not sure how complete year on DL affects AST - I assume it counts if on MLB roster ? If so "C" lots of time. Welcome oldfan. Your name means: 1) you've been a fan for many, many years, or 2) you are over 90? I'm gathering since you are using a computer, you have just been following the Sox for a looooooooonnnnnng time! I remember Tony C fondly.....so no problem either way. |
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Post by mandelbro on Sept 14, 2015 15:27:31 GMT -5
I think your assumptions are way, way, way too strong on Vazquez. A) I don't care how good his defense is, if he's hitting a Sandy Leon line, even just with the optics, it'd be hard to start him. Leon was tolerated because he was a stopgap while Hanigan got healthy. But that's a much harder thing to do if we're talking "long-term, 6-year player." B) Then of course, there's the fact that you're assuming his defense will be as otherworldly at the major league level as you think it is. It's entirely possible after missing a year to Tommy John, his arm just never is the same, his mechanics don't come back, he isn't as agile, etc etc. Seriously, for me, my answer to the question in the poll is, "IDFK, ask me again in a year when we've got a year of data on Vazquez post-injury and Swihart post-actually-being-ready-for-the-majors-in-theory and then I'll tell you whether they should keep one or both." This also depends on what trades become available, doesn't it? And yes, I think you may miss out on the chance to trade Swihart for his peak value by doing this, but to find out whether you have a potential long-term solution at catcher, I think that's absolutely worth it. Basically where I'm at in my thinking. We don't know if either guy is a 'long-term, 6-year player' at this stage. We could keep both and find out that in 2016 our primary catcher is Ryan Hanigan. The problem with this poll is it that it can be summarized as such: Assuming Christian Vazquez is a superstar, what would you do with Blake Swihart? But the real debate to be had here is whether or not Christian Vazquez is a superstar. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2015 16:29:35 GMT -5
It cracks me up the number of people who want to trade Swihart. The pitching staff has done well with him receiving. He can hit. And, he's got wheels. He's the best thing I've seen at the hardest position in baseball to fill since Buster Posey. But, yeah sure, let's go ahead and shoot ourselves in the foot and up regretting it for the next decade.
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Post by m1keyboots on Sept 14, 2015 17:14:43 GMT -5
I'm LeaNing towards B. People are ridiculing wanting to trade Swihart but he's never shown the type of Power Posey has, at any level. His bat is developed more, but if Vasquez arm strength is bsck to where it was. How can you not want the Elite of the elite back there hitting 250 with a little gap pop and strike zone control?. Swihart to me hasn't shown he can develop the type of defense Cv has. This is subject to changet if Swihart mashes esrly next year. I just would like an ace and Swihart is the only guy I'd be willing to trade for an ace/cost controlled solid 2.
Edit. Im a firm believer that our staff would do better with CV behind the plate not just with his framing skills. Also, did anyone think CV was a plodder? I found him to be a guy whose not a liability on the bases. Sure it's fun to see Swihart run a little faster and mayne steal 10 bags, but are their lines any different? CV had a little more time in AAA and I'm basing this on I think we know more of what CV is than what Swihart is. Swihart COULD be a star, he'll never hit 330 with 30 homeruns, unless he starts showing something he has never shown. If we could have gotten Hamels for a deal packaged around Blake, imagine his value now that he got a little hot and pushed his ops over 700. This is my thinking is CVs arm returns. I'm a big believer that his defense is of the elite level and his contact skills alone will never allow him to be a Sandy Leon (who can't do anything but throw anyways)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 14, 2015 17:30:47 GMT -5
@eric: I think you're relying too much on the accuracy of framing WAR in your evaluation of CV.
There are only a few people I'd trade Swihart for this offseason. I could get behind involving him in a Archer, Sale or Fernandez trade, all of which are improbable. Realistically, I would think keeping him makes the most sense, at least for one more season as CV gets re acclimated and gets the chance to prove he can hit and still has a cannon.
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