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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 7, 2012 14:30:30 GMT -5
Of course, he was on a team with Joe Nathan closing, Mike Adam as the setup man, and Alexi Ogando and Robbie Ross also available for key middle innings. But that said, following his meltdown following his trade to Texas in 2011 (remember the playoffs??), he hasn't really been trusted like a setup man.And yet Ron Washington is still allowed to manage games.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 7, 2012 14:58:46 GMT -5
Of course, he was on a team with Joe Nathan closing, Mike Adam as the setup man, and Alexi Ogando and Robbie Ross also available for key middle innings. But that said, following his meltdown following his trade to Texas in 2011 (remember the playoffs??), he hasn't really been trusted like a setup man.And yet Ron Washington is still allowed to manage games. I remember that Verlander was also really bad that series.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 18:38:54 GMT -5
I'd say it also raises his risk. As we all know there three ways of getting hitters out, (velocity, movement, and command). If I have a choice I'd rather have a pitcher get outs with velocity. For players who get outs the other two ways, all it takes is a small downturn in stuff and the pitcher is a zero. For this reason, I would fully expect that when Uehara's decline comes it will be steep and he'll end up going from one of the top relievers in baseball to a non-major league player over a very short period of time. Obviously Uehara gets closer to that cliff every year the older he gets.
That said I like the signing. Betting $4.5M that this is not the year Uehara falls off the cliff is a decent gamble and I'll say that even if the gamble doesn't turn out well.
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Post by welovewally on Dec 7, 2012 23:15:10 GMT -5
I wonder how many other teams had any interest in Uehara. Why did the Red Sox sign him, he's not a Starter.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 7, 2012 23:51:57 GMT -5
I wonder how many other teams had any interest in Uehara. Why did the Red Sox sign him, he's not a Starter. Same reason you sign a veteran CF. You're about to deal from the stack of talent in that particular pile.....
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 23:59:16 GMT -5
I wonder how many other teams had any interest in Uehara. Why did the Red Sox sign him, he's not a Starter. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a lot of teams that automatically eliminated him because of his age and velocity. I would imagine that 2/3 of teams won't sign a pitcher who throws in the 80s. The Red Sox signed him because of his consistent track record and that they were able to get him on a one year deal at reasonable money.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 8, 2012 8:43:18 GMT -5
I wonder how many other teams had any interest in Uehara. Why did the Red Sox sign him, he's not a Starter.Having the best K/BB rate in the history of baseball isn't enough? Geez, tough crowd.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 8, 2012 8:47:47 GMT -5
I think this was a terrific signing. One major issue last year was the tendency of starters to run out of gas in later innings (another tendency was to get lit up in the first inning, but that's another story). To be able to potentially stack the back half of the bullpen with Bailey, Tazawa and Uehara (wiithout even speculating on Miller, Bard, Carpenter, Morales, et al) means less outs needed from starters.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 8, 2012 12:53:29 GMT -5
I wonder how many other teams had any interest in Uehara. Why did the Red Sox sign him, he's not a Starter. Same reason you sign a veteran CF. You're about to deal from the stack of talent in that particular pile..... The Round Table Decision Makers are on a roll
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Post by klostrophobic on Dec 8, 2012 20:03:40 GMT -5
This almost makes up for losing Olmsted and Fields, but not really. Top-5 reliever they've had since Foulke left?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 8, 2012 21:09:12 GMT -5
This almost makes up for losing Olmsted and Fields, but not really. Top-5 reliever they've had since Foulke left? Paplebon??
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 9, 2012 9:16:53 GMT -5
This almost makes up for losing Olmsted and Fields, but not really. Top-5 reliever they've had since Foulke left? Paplebon?? And Daniel Bard?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 9, 2012 10:45:02 GMT -5
Probably just Papelbon, really. Looking at the years Bard was a reliever (09-11), among the qualified relievers, Bard ranks thirty-eighth in FIP. In those same years, Uehara was ranked eighteenth, Papelbon thirteenth. Remember when you actually wanted the opposing team's starter to leave the game? I feel like today you're praying he comes back out for the seventh because every team has like four completely unhittable relievers these days.
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Post by station13 on Dec 9, 2012 11:54:52 GMT -5
Probably just Papelbon, really. Looking at the years Bard was a reliever (09-11), among the qualified relievers, Bard ranks thirty-eighth in FIP. In those same years, Uehara was ranked eighteenth, Papelbon thirteenth. Remember when you actually wanted the opposing team's starter to leave the game? I feel like today you're praying he comes back out for the seventh because every team has like four completely unhittable relievers these days. I doubt there are much more valuable reliever than Bard from 09-11. you're basing it entirely on FIP. Are we watching the same games? Geez Bard has quieted so much rallies from opposing teams by getting more than 3 outs in CRUCIAL situations. That's how I judge the values of a reliever. Not how cleaner their FIP are (BB/HR/HBP). If you're going to try and tell me Paps was a more valuable in that same span, I wholeheartedly disagrees. Bard pitch more innings+games from 2010-2011 than any AL reliever as well. T
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2012 12:05:53 GMT -5
2010 was really the only year Bard was better than Papelbon, and it was really the only non-excellent season of Pap's career. His usage might have been sub-optimal as a three-out closer, but his pitching certainly wasn't.
It's worth pointing out that Papelbon has a 192 career ERA+. Bard has one season where he had an ERA+ better than 130. Granted, it was a 227, and he may well have been the the best reliever in the game (non-Rivera divition ) in 2010, but his three year stretch doesn't even measure up to Okajima's 2007-09.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 9, 2012 12:09:04 GMT -5
Probably just Papelbon, really. Looking at the years Bard was a reliever (09-11), among the qualified relievers, Bard ranks thirty-eighth in FIP. In those same years, Uehara was ranked eighteenth, Papelbon thirteenth. Remember when you actually wanted the opposing team's starter to leave the game? I feel like today you're praying he comes back out for the seventh because every team has like four completely unhittable relievers these days. I doubt there are much more valuable reliever than Bard from 09-11. you're basing it entirely on FIP. Are we watching the same games? Geez Bard has quieted so much rallies from opposing teams by getting more than 3 outs in CRUCIAL situations. That's how I judge the values of a reliever. Not how cleaner their FIP are (BB/HR/HBP). If you're going to try and tell me Paps was a more valuable in that same span, I wholeheartedly disagrees. Bard pitch more innings+games from 2010-2011 than any AL reliever as well. T The best setup guy the Red Sox have had was Billy Wagner for that brief stretch of 2009. In 2011, Bard was lights out for June and July. For the rest of the season, April, May, August September, he was far from a dominant reliever. In fact, he was absolutely atrocious in September 2011. In 2010, Bard was better than Papelbon, but that had more to do the fact that Papelbon was having his worse season ever.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 9, 2012 12:57:13 GMT -5
In 2011, Bard was 9th in baseball in WAR per Fangraphs. The only reason his numbers aren't better is because, as bluechip says, he collapsed with the rest of the team in September. So I guess not "top 5," but I'd still argue he was better than Uehara that season. I'm not really trying to make an argument about anything, but I guess I just didn't get the comment that Uehara is the best reliever the Sox have had since Foulke. ------------ As I've said, Uehara is a nice acquisition and I'd sign him to that deal 10 times out of 10, but I'm not entering this with crazy high expectations.
I looked a bit further into his usage last year. He was hurt from June 9 through August 26, so that might skew the following a lot. Anyway, in the first part of the season, he made 20 appearances.
- He was never used with Texas up 1 or 2 runs. - He was used in one tie game, but that only in extra innings. - He was used twice with Texas up 3 runs, both in the 8th. - He was used once with Texas down 1, in the 7th. - He was used twice with Texas down 2, both in the 8th.
His numbers from this time were quite good, but again, they weren't leaning on him too heavily with Nathan, Adams, Ogando and Ross around.
But when he came back, he was leaned on much more heavily. In 14 appearances, he recorded all four holds he notched on the year. - He was used three times ahead 1, twice in the 8th and once in the 9th. - Used once ahead 2, in the 8th. - Used twice in a tie, 1x 8th, 1x 7th - Used four times down 1, twice in the 9th, 1x each in 8th and 7th. Someone who followed the Rangers more closely than I did may be able to speak better to his usage relative to others, and possibly their tendency to be in closer games later in the year, but at the very least, he was throwing in tighter situations in the second part of his season. Makes me feel a bit better about the fact that his leverage index is behind the four mentioned above, Scheppers, and Michael Kirkman among Rangers RP with 20 IP.
(By the way, going back and looking at the numbers again, I'd forgotten just HOW good Papelbon was. Cue Joni Mitchell.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2012 12:19:30 GMT -5
[ I doubt there are much more valuable reliever than Bard from 09-11. you're basing it entirely on FIP. Are we watching the same games? Geez Bard has quieted so much rallies from opposing teams by getting more than 3 outs in CRUCIAL situations. That's how I judge the values of a reliever. Not how cleaner their FIP are (BB/HR/HBP). If you're going to try and tell me Paps was a more valuable in that same span, I wholeheartedly disagrees. Bard pitch more innings+games from 2010-2011 than any AL reliever as well. T Well, if we go by WPA (winning percentage added, which does account for leverage), Bard was 10th overall from 09-11. Rivera was first overall, Papelbon was second, Uehara was 29th. That said, I'm not crazy about measuring relievers this way, because relievers aren't in control of when they pitch. Is it fair to give Bard extra credit because Francona leaned on him, or ding Uehara because Ron Washington can't run a bullpen to save his life (or to win a World Series for that matter)? Anyway, Uehara has been very good and I'm glad he's on the team. Even if he's not the guy you call in a tie game with with two on, none out in the eighth or whatever, it's not like they're paying him to be that guy.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2012 12:26:03 GMT -5
(By the way, going back and looking at the numbers again, I'd forgotten just HOW good Papelbon was. Cue Joni Mitchell.) There was a time when he was the absolute best part of watching the Red Sox, at least for me. Back in '07-'08, that fastball/splitter combo was just... unfair. Unethical.
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Post by gatortough on Dec 10, 2012 12:52:43 GMT -5
There was a time when he was the absolute best part of watching the Red Sox, at least for me. Back in '07-'08, that fastball/splitter combo was just... unfair. Unethical. Agreed. Watching him climb the ladder for strike three was the best part of my day. Hitters knew it was coming and still couldn't touch it. That late explosion was a thing of beauty.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 18, 2012 12:07:09 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 18, 2012 15:01:45 GMT -5
I understand that Saltalamacchia has been in the trade rumor mill lately. But, with the uncertainty of the Napoli situation, I'd be reluctant to move him at this point.
And, why Aceves? Is Pedro Beato more valuable to this franchise?
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Post by remember04 on Dec 18, 2012 15:05:27 GMT -5
And, why Aceves? Is Pedro Beato more valuable to this franchise? Because he's a couple of sandwiches shy of a picnic? I think he has value in a long relief role though. Ultimately I think it winds up being whoever they can get the best return for.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 18, 2012 15:28:03 GMT -5
I understand that Saltalamacchia has been in the trade rumor mill lately. But, with the uncertainty of the Napoli situation, I'd be reluctant to move him at this point. And, why Aceves? Is Pedro Beato more valuable to this franchise? Because Beato had no trade value? I'm not saying we can't DFA Beato, but trading him won't get us something of value. A combination of Salty and Aceves might net a valuable piece though.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 18, 2012 15:31:42 GMT -5
He may be a few sandwiches shy, but he packs a lot into the picnic basket. Kid's got a good arm, terrific "stuff", and a competitive attitude. He's been a closer (and a very effective one for a few months), a long releiver and a spot starter.
If you're just looking to free up a roster spot for J.D.'s brother, you don't just dump a valuable asset like Aceves.
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