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Acquiring an Ace: FA or Trade?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 8, 2015 15:13:15 GMT -5
Gotta wonder how long it will be until Jose Fernandez changes teams. I can't see the Marlins paying both he and Stanton. He'd be a better pick than Sale if we're gonna have pipe dreams.
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Post by brendan98 on Oct 8, 2015 15:36:35 GMT -5
It’s going to take an overpay to get a pitcher like Sonny Gray, my question is what would an overpay look like? I do not think there is any doubt that if the Sox were throwing around names like Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Swihart, Benintendi, Espinoza they could get Gray and would have a very good chance of trading for anyone they wanted, but is there a deal to be made without those top tier guys? Would the following package be enough of an overpay from Billy Beane’s perspective to land the Sox Sonny Gray?
Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, Brian Johnson, Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra for Sonny Gray
I think for us, the prospects are repetitive enough that you could deal them without too much pain, and Miley and Kelly are valuable, but no brainers if the return is Sonny Gray.
On the flip side, this deal would give the A’s 2 or 3 pitchers to slot in their barren rotation next year, all with multiple years of control, at a combined cost not too far off of what Gray will likely earn over his arbitration years. Looking at the A’s rotation as is, Kelly would represent a high upside possibility to front the rotation, Miley a dependable innings eater to slot behind him, and Johnson a close to MLB ready rookie with some projectability. Margot is a potential 5 tool prospect with a relatively low floor, and Guerra (though less advanced) is also very projectable also with a high floor due to excellent defense at a premium position.
Am I delusional to think Beane would make this deal? Does anyone think that another team would make a better offer?
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Post by telson13 on Oct 8, 2015 15:42:14 GMT -5
To your first point-you're basically saying that, if a pitcher was once his team's best starter, he's a #1 for life. No, no he's not. There are also starters (Grienke, for example) who pitch like legitimate #1s but are stuck behind other pitchers. RJ/Schilling, Halladay/Lee, etc. That doesn't make them #2-quality starters. If you want to use the semantic argument based solely on rotation position for all 30 teams, that's fine...but you're saying Clay Buchholz is a #1 while Zack Grienke is a #2. And it's true, in a literal sense. But it's a useless point when it comes to using rotation position assignment paradigms to discuss statistics and performance. As for your second point, after Clay's half-season (which basically was averaged out with Peavy's...since both pitched half-seasons with the Sox), you've got a couple of 2/3 quality starters there (exactly what I said), and you didn't even bother to mention Doubront and Dempster, who combined pitched about 80% as many innings as Lester/Lackey...because they were mediocre to awful. You listed four pitchers, the first and last of whom pitched half-seasons. So really, you listed the equivalent of 60% of the rotation, but it looks like you tried to pawn it off as the top 4 starters. So tell me again how that rotation was "stacked"?? I contend that the current rotation borders on similar capability as the 2013 version. Rodriguez is primed to do his best Lester impression, and Porcello certainly has the ability to match Lackey's 2013. 2013 Doubront and Dempster-level performances shouldn't be hard to come by (Miley and Kelly did about as much this year). So basically, this team would be OK if they could get someone to repeat the combo of Clay-Peavy, or a high-2s/low-3s ERA, 190-220 IP, etc. if they can trade from excess (without tapping into Espinoza, Moncada, Devers, Benintendi or Margot) and get a SP who's #2 caliber (Raisel Iglesias is intriguing to me, given Cincy's many needs, previous drafting of Marrero, and bandbox ballpark), I'm all for it. If they can stretch for a 1a/future 1, or get a cheap deal on a rental like Strasburg, even better. Or sign a FA if the price isn't prohibitive (though it very well may be). The only route I don't like is emptying the farm for a legitimate #1, because the cost/benefit there is too high. It's just not worth it, given how this team played from August 1st on. Obviously being a one time ace does not make you an ace for life. Obviously it's posible to have 2 on a staff, Pedro and Schilling.You read what I write and reach absurd conclusions. Or you're using dubious arguments to support absurd conclusions. Maybe you're trying to communicate something different from what you wrote, but 2013 Lester (the #1) and Lackey (#2 after Buchholz got hurt) put up 3.5 and 2.4 fWAR respectively, with ERA- tallies of 90 and 84. Their FIP/xFIP numbers were pretty much in line with their ERAs. Those are second-division #2/first-division #3 starter numbers. You avoided mentioning Doubront's (2.2, 103, or first-division #4) and Dempster's (0.5/109, a reasonable #5) performances. But, you did bring up Dempster's 6-year prior career season as evidence of how good he was. You also used Buchholz's *half*-season and Peavy's *one-third*-season with the Sox as evidence, too. So, again, explain to me again how a team led by two 2/3 starters, that got a fantastic **first half** performance from Buchholz and had two back end starters performing exactly as back-end performers should, was "stacked." Maybe that term means something different to you. Frankly, when the crux of your argument is that 3 of 5 starters were once their team's #1 (including Dempster on some awful Cubs/Marlins teams), "making them a #1 at least," I see a huge false equivalency. Maybe if their 2007 versions had all shown up, but not their 2013 versions. Regardless, I maintain that if this team obtains a pitcher who can reproduce the combo of 2013 Buchholz/Peavy, they'll have as good a rotation as 2013, if not better. More depth, too. I think that's feasible either through FA, or a trade from excess without selling the farm.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 8, 2015 15:44:08 GMT -5
It’s going to take an overpay to get a pitcher like Sonny Gray, my question is what would an overpay look like? I do not think there is any doubt that if the Sox were throwing around names like Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Swihart, Benintendi, Espinoza they could get Gray and would have a very good chance of trading for anyone they wanted, but is there a deal to be made without those top tier guys? Would the following package be enough of an overpay from Billy Beane’s perspective to land the Sox Sonny Gray? Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, Brian Johnson, Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra for Sonny Gray I think for us, the prospects are repetitive enough that you could deal them without too much pain, and Miley and Kelly are valuable, but no brainers if the return is Sonny Gray. On the flip side, this deal would give the A’s 2 or 3 pitchers to slot in their barren rotation next year, all with multiple years of control, at a combined cost not too far off of what Gray will likely earn over his arbitration years. Looking at the A’s rotation as is, Kelly would represent a high upside possibility to front the rotation, Miley a dependable innings eater to slot behind him, and Johnson a close to MLB ready rookie with some projectability. Margot is a potential 5 tool prospect with a relatively low floor, and Guerra (though less advanced) is also very projectable also with a high floor due to excellent defense at a premium position. Am I delusional to think Beane would make this deal? Does anyone think that another team would make a better offer? There's no way I'd make that trade. If that's what it takes, forget it.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 8, 2015 15:51:18 GMT -5
Gotta find the next Jake Arrieta, not gut the farm for Sale. Hard to believe the Orioles traded Rodriguez and Arrieta and wound up with nothing to show for it at all. It's hard to quantify, but some piece of this has to be with the improvements the organization makes. You can't definitively say that if the O's held onto Arrieta he would still be the pitcher he's become in Chicago. Same with E-Rod, it clicked for him in the Red Sox minor league system once he started throwing his changeup harder. Who knows, maybe if Kelly went to the Pirates he would be competing for the Cy Young.
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Post by jmei on Oct 8, 2015 15:56:14 GMT -5
Gotta find the next Jake Arrieta, not gut the farm for Sale. Easier said than done, though. They've certainly tried-- the acquisition of Joe Kelly was almost certainly motivated by his upside, for instance, and the extension for Porcello was driven by the idea that he was capable of taking that next step. Webster and De La Rosa had that sort of potential as well. But not all of them (usually very few of them, in fact) work out, and it's tough to rely on that alone as your rotation-building philosophy. I would agree with those who argue that they don't need an ace. They need to upgrade the team as best they can with the resources they have available, and the fact that their starting pitching is one of the weaker areas of the team suggests an improvement there would be prudent. But it's not ace or bust; if the high-end guys are getting too expensive (in trade or free agency) but you can get a mid-end guy at a reasonable cost, maybe you do that and invest the rest of your resources in the bullpen or in the outfield or at 1B/3B. Dombrowski needs to be flexible and read the market. That's the one area where I think he's a big upgrade over Cherington-- those decades of GM experience come in handy when you have to balance a couple dozen potential scenarios and figure out which way to go.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 8, 2015 15:58:41 GMT -5
It’s going to take an overpay to get a pitcher like Sonny Gray, my question is what would an overpay look like? I do not think there is any doubt that if the Sox were throwing around names like Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Swihart, Benintendi, Espinoza they could get Gray and would have a very good chance of trading for anyone they wanted, but is there a deal to be made without those top tier guys? Would the following package be enough of an overpay from Billy Beane’s perspective to land the Sox Sonny Gray? Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, Brian Johnson, Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra for Sonny Gray I think for us, the prospects are repetitive enough that you could deal them without too much pain, and Miley and Kelly are valuable, but no brainers if the return is Sonny Gray. On the flip side, this deal would give the A’s 2 or 3 pitchers to slot in their barren rotation next year, all with multiple years of control, at a combined cost not too far off of what Gray will likely earn over his arbitration years. Looking at the A’s rotation as is, Kelly would represent a high upside possibility to front the rotation, Miley a dependable innings eater to slot behind him, and Johnson a close to MLB ready rookie with some projectability. Margot is a potential 5 tool prospect with a relatively low floor, and Guerra (though less advanced) is also very projectable also with a high floor due to excellent defense at a premium position. Am I delusional to think Beane would make this deal? Does anyone think that another team would make a better offer? I still think Gray is a solid #2, maybe a 1a at best, outside of the Coliseum. That seems like an awful lot to give up, and it creates some depth issues. What if Gray gets injured? What if an OF goes down, or JBJ regresses...Margot is probably MLB-ready defensively, if not offensively. And he's a fair bet to be MLB-ready by early 2017. What if Bogaerts won't sign an extension? Guerra is on track to be MLB-ready a year before Bogaerts can walk. Miley was worth 2.6 WAR, with FIP/xFIPs about 0.3 higher than Gray, who was worth 3.8 WAR. That's a huge talent outlay (with real long-term $ cost due to loss of control years for Margot/Guerra) for just over one win. Even if Gray pitches to 5 WAR, you're still eking out less than two and a half wins. I'm not sure it's worth it.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 8, 2015 16:10:40 GMT -5
Gotta find the next Jake Arrieta, not gut the farm for Sale. Easier said than done, though. They've certainly tried-- the acquisition of Joe Kelly was almost certainly motivated by his upside, for instance, and the extension for Porcello was driven by the idea that he was capable of taking that next step. Webster and De La Rosa had that sort of potential as well. But not all of them (usually very few of them, in fact) work out, and it's tough to rely on that alone as your rotation-building philosophy. I would agree with those who argue that they don't need an ace. They need to upgrade the team as best they can with the resources they have available, and the fact that their starting pitching is one of the weaker areas of the team suggests an improvement there would be prudent. But it's not ace or bust; if the high-end guys are getting too expensive (in trade or free agency) but you can get a mid-end guy at a reasonable cost, maybe you do that and invest the rest of your resources in the bullpen or in the outfield or at 1B/3B. Dombrowski needs to be flexible and read the market. That's the one area where I think he's a big upgrade over Cherington-- those decades of GM experience come in handy when you have to balance a couple dozen potential scenarios and figure out which way to go. And they look like they succeeded somewhat with Rodriguez. Maybe they can go after a guy like Tyler Skaggs.
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Post by dillard on Oct 8, 2015 16:14:19 GMT -5
Beane will require one of Bogaerts, Betts or Swihart to start. He would need one of Devers, Moncada and Beni. He would need Kelly or Miley. Too much in my opinion.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 8, 2015 17:55:39 GMT -5
We need to look in all corners and see who has upside, somewhat young, had a slightly down season.....and has dominant stuff. A guy like Cashner in San Diego for example. He still threw 95 this year comin back from an injury in 2014 (only 19 starts) to throw 186 innings this year. Now his WHIP for the 1st time was around 1.4, but take a look at his numbers in 2013 and 2014. May be a good buy low candidate who can bring it.
Now Cashner is just an example, but maybe DD would consider someone like that if the numbers get too big.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 8, 2015 18:19:11 GMT -5
This forum hypes Gray up so much it's crazy. He's got similar peripherals to McHugh, and he's worse than someone like Quintana, yet people group him in with Harvey, Fernandez, Sale, DeGrom, etc.
ESPN may love him because he keeps his ERA nice and pretty in Oakland, but I'd stay away from him at this point because he's got the connotation of a monster when he's no more valuable than guys like Swihart who we talk about trading in a package for him.
And Andrew Cashner would be absolutely terrible in the AL East. Like Porcello before the all star break bad, except it would never end. He has upside but he's about to be 30 and I see little reason to believe he improves much more.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 8, 2015 18:27:55 GMT -5
Beane will require one of Bogaerts, Betts or Swihart to start. He would need one of Devers, Moncada and Beni. He would need Kelly or Miley. Too much in my opinion. You have no Beane will require. See Donaldson, Josh.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 8, 2015 18:39:21 GMT -5
David Price now 0-6 in the postseason. Are you proponents still sure you want to sign him for 7yrs @ $210 million (or more)?
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 8, 2015 19:17:12 GMT -5
David Price now 0-6 in the postseason. Are you proponents still sure you want to sign him for 7yrs @ $210 million (or more)? Given that it's currently a 1 game sample size in four of the past 5 seasons, I'm not sure I read much into it. His regular season numbers if anything have been getting better recently, and I'll stick to the bigger sample size. Kershaw's playoff numbers suck as well, and though he's even a step above Price in his current production and three years younger, you could argue the same point. Setting up a team that it poised to win the division with a fallback of the WC should be the goal for the team. If you win the division, and your "ace" doesn't have a great game and you lose, you are still well in it. Slip into the WC, and cya
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 8, 2015 19:49:40 GMT -5
This forum hypes Gray up so much it's crazy. He's got similar peripherals to McHugh, and he's worse than someone like Quintana, yet people group him in with Harvey, Fernandez, Sale, DeGrom, etc. ESPN may love him because he keeps his ERA nice and pretty in Oakland, but I'd stay away from him at this point because he's got the connotation of a monster when he's no more valuable than guys like Swihart who we talk about trading in a package for him. And Andrew Cashner would be absolutely terrible in the AL East. Like Porcello before the all star break bad, except it would never end. He has upside but he's about to be 30 and I see little reason to believe he improves much more. Totally disagree. And I said I was (we are) looking for someone who may be on the cusp. It is very easy to name the usual 7 or 8 pitchers you'd want in a trade. It is not easy for Dombroski and guys to find someone under the radar and less expensive.....who may give them an above average 30 starts. Lets stop naming the same guys and come up with some potential rotation pieces who could maybe be dominant for a year or two.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 8, 2015 21:10:24 GMT -5
This forum hypes Gray up so much it's crazy. He's got similar peripherals to McHugh, and he's worse than someone like Quintana, yet people group him in with Harvey, Fernandez, Sale, DeGrom, etc. ESPN may love him because he keeps his ERA nice and pretty in Oakland, but I'd stay away from him at this point because he's got the connotation of a monster when he's no more valuable than guys like Swihart who we talk about trading in a package for him. And Andrew Cashner would be absolutely terrible in the AL East. Like Porcello before the all star break bad, except it would never end. He has upside but he's about to be 30 and I see little reason to believe he improves much more. Totally disagree. And I said I was (we are) looking for someone who may be on the cusp. It is very easy to name the usual 7 or 8 pitchers you'd want in a trade. It is not easy for Dombroski and guys to find someone under the radar and less expensive.....who may give them an above average 30 starts. Lets stop naming the same guys and come up with some potential rotation pieces who could maybe be dominant for a year or two. Can you give me any reason to believe Cashner would be good here? He wouldn't be any better than Miley. He would eat innings, that's it. He has a home run problem in San Diego and in the NL West. He doesn't get an impressive amount of swings and misses either. We don't need a guy like him, hes not a big enough upgrade over Miley or even Kelly to warrant giving up anything of value IMO.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 8, 2015 22:30:44 GMT -5
David Price now 0-6 in the postseason. Are you proponents still sure you want to sign him for 7yrs @ $210 million (or more)? Yes let’s use a sample of 47 IP to evaluate a guy instead of his other sample of 1,442 IP!!!!! Makes perfect sense.
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Post by mandelbro on Oct 8, 2015 23:01:28 GMT -5
This forum hypes Gray up so much it's crazy. He's got similar peripherals to McHugh, and he's worse than someone like Quintana, yet people group him in with Harvey, Fernandez, Sale, DeGrom, etc. ESPN may love him because he keeps his ERA nice and pretty in Oakland, but I'd stay away from him at this point because he's got the connotation of a monster when he's no more valuable than guys like Swihart who we talk about trading in a package for him. And Andrew Cashner would be absolutely terrible in the AL East. Like Porcello before the all star break bad, except it would never end. He has upside but he's about to be 30 and I see little reason to believe he improves much more. Agreed on both counts. Casher gets hit hard, velocity and all. At least with Kelly he's a converted outfielder and has some excuses to be raw at his age. What is Cashner's excuse? Injuries? The last thing we need is yet another reclamation project.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 8, 2015 23:07:51 GMT -5
Obviously being a one time ace does not make you an ace for life. Obviously it's posible to have 2 on a staff, Pedro and Schilling.You read what I write and reach absurd conclusions. Or you're using dubious arguments to support absurd conclusions. Maybe you're trying to communicate something different from what you wrote, but 2013 Lester (the #1) and Lackey (#2 after Buchholz got hurt) put up 3.5 and 2.4 fWAR respectively, with ERA- tallies of 90 and 84. Their FIP/xFIP numbers were pretty much in line with their ERAs. Those are second-division #2/first-division #3 starter numbers. You avoided mentioning Doubront's (2.2, 103, or first-division #4) and Dempster's (0.5/109, a reasonable #5) performances. But, you did bring up Dempster's 6-year prior career season as evidence of how good he was. You also used Buchholz's *half*-season and Peavy's *one-third*-season with the Sox as evidence, too. So, again, explain to me again how a team led by two 2/3 starters, that got a fantastic **first half** performance from Buchholz and had two back end starters performing exactly as back-end performers should, was "stacked." Maybe that term means something different to you. Frankly, when the crux of your argument is that 3 of 5 starters were once their team's #1 (including Dempster on some awful Cubs/Marlins teams), "making them a #1 at least," I see a huge false equivalency. Maybe if their 2007 versions had all shown up, but not their 2013 versions. Regardless, I maintain that if this team obtains a pitcher who can reproduce the combo of 2013 Buchholz/Peavy, they'll have as good a rotation as 2013, if not better. More depth, too. I think that's feasible either through FA, or a trade from excess without selling the farm. You've convoluted this so much I don't understand the point. Reading some of your post is like listening to a Glen Ordway on the radio, you make a point on 1 side of the fence then the other and back and forth until you no longer no what your real point is.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2015 1:57:29 GMT -5
Gotta wonder how long it will be until Jose Fernandez changes teams. I can't see the Marlins paying both he and Stanton. He'd be a better pick than Sale if we're gonna have pipe dreams. I knew I was forgetting someone; I grabbed everyone with 15 or more GS and meant to look at those with fewer who were so good that they should be considered anyway, and then forgot. There's no one who combines quality with likelihood of being available like Fernandez does; he's Pedro 1998 in lower case font. One strategy would be get a young cost-controlled #2 this winter, and then deal either him or ERod with Swihart, etc. to get Fernandez the next winter. (I actually suggested this strategy a while ago in the Swihart trade thread, without naming Fernandez specifically.)
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 9, 2015 7:36:26 GMT -5
Totally disagree. And I said I was (we are) looking for someone who may be on the cusp. It is very easy to name the usual 7 or 8 pitchers you'd want in a trade. It is not easy for Dombroski and guys to find someone under the radar and less expensive.....who may give them an above average 30 starts. Lets stop naming the same guys and come up with some potential rotation pieces who could maybe be dominant for a year or two. Can you give me any reason to believe Cashner would be good here? He wouldn't be any better than Miley. He would eat innings, that's it. He has a home run problem in San Diego and in the NL West. He doesn't get an impressive amount of swings and misses either. We don't need a guy like him, hes not a big enough upgrade over Miley or even Kelly to warrant giving up anything of value IMO. I agree nomar. I'm trying to find potential upgrades that won't cost us a contract of 7 years and $210 million. He is a buy low pitcher. He DOES have some upside. He has been effective when healthy. He won't cost much in prospects. Instead of saying no way, give me some of your buy low potential upside pitchers. It is entirely possible that Henry and Dombroski are going to stay away from the high price aisle. I personally do not agree with this anymore. But I'm looking at alternatives....that is all. Cashner, as an example, has a high velocity arm, but so did someone by the name of Arrieta who the Orioles gave away. No one saw him being an ace....certainly not Duquette, Showalter, or the highly over rated Rick Peterson.
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 9, 2015 8:12:32 GMT -5
I know he is not an "ace," but James Shields seems like the perfect guy to target to bolster the rotation this offseason. He is durable, he has experience in the AL East, and not only will he not cost anything of value, but the Red Sox can also probably dump some salary in exchange for him. Moreover, his lackluster performance in the pitching Nirvana that is Petco strikes me as fluky - there seems like a chance for a rebound performance there.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 9, 2015 9:33:58 GMT -5
Honestly, as Lou Merloni said, I wouldn't feel too uncomfortable running out the same starters this year & concentrate on the bullpen....Don't want to give Price 7/210...don't trust Zimmerman @ 6/120 + loss of high draft pick....don't like Cueto @ what, 7/180....Did anyone but me watch games in the second half & have our OF run down flyball after flyball & say to myself, there is no way Hanley/Craig/Nava gets to that....How many outs, long innings & extra runs did they save....It was all a trickle down effect...shorter outings from starter....bullpen overload, ect...The only FA I would even consider would be Greinke (shorter deal).
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Post by awall on Oct 9, 2015 9:39:15 GMT -5
Given his struggles, is Fister a potential "buy low" option this off season?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 9, 2015 9:47:14 GMT -5
Given his struggles, is Fister a potential "buy low" option this off season? Definitely. Not an ace, but if healthy, a solid 3 or a poor man's 2. For 1 year, I'd be all over him (if healthy).
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