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Post by amfox1 on Dec 7, 2012 15:37:08 GMT -5
Below is my initial AAA projection, based on the following assumptions for the parent club:
Red Sox starters - Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, Morales (if a FA starter is signed, Morales goes to the bullpen)
Red Sox bullpen - Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Miller, Breslow, Mortensen, Melancon (Aceves traded, Bard begins in AAA; if a FA starter is signed, Morales becomes the long man in place of Mortensen)
Red Sox lineup - Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Gomes, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Victorino, Iglesias (Saltalamacchia traded)
Red Sox bench - Ciriaco, Sands, D.Ross, Nava
2013 Pawtucket roster (age as of 3/30/12):
(SP) De La Rosa* (23), Webster* (23), Pimentel* (22), Wright* (28), Godfrey (28) (trade), Doyle (27) (signed as MLFA) (The Red Sox have seven starters for five spots. I moved Hernandez to the bullpen. It is possible that De La Rosa, Webster and/or Pimentel could get pushed to AA for 6-8 weeks if everyone is healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if Pimentel was traded.)
(RP) C.Carpenter* (26), Beato* (25), A.Wilson* (25), Bard* (24), C.Hernandez (23), Huntzinger (23), Villareal (31) (signed as MLFA), De La Torre (26) (re-signed as MLFA), Carter (26) (signed as MLFA) (R5: Fields (26)) (It is possible that Beato will not be on the 40-man roster by spring training, which would mean that one of Villareal/De La Torre/Carter would make the roster, with another making the "taxi squad". I favor DLT over the other two. I assume Fields will not be back and I see Kurcz starting the year in AA.)
(OF) Brentz (23), Kalish* (24), Hassan* (23), Hazelbaker (25), Linares (27) (With Kalish likely starting the year in AAA, Bradley likely starts in AA, with both being promoted by Memorial Day. I could see Linares being cut in spring training or being on the "taxi squad".)
(IF) Gomez* (27), Henry (27) (trade), DeJesus (25), Sutton (29) (signed as MLFA), Maier (30) (signed as MLFA), T.Thomas (26), Hee (25), Dent (23) (With Gomez likely starting the year in AAA, Maier likely makes the team as DH because of his LH bat. Only one of Thomas, Hee and Dent make the team, with another being on the "taxi squad". I could see Dent going back to AA for the third time.)
(C) Butler* (25), Spring (27) (re-signed as MLFA), Rosario (26) (signed as MLFA) (Assuming Salty is traded, Spring and Rosario compete to be Butler's backup, with the loser going on the "taxi squad".)
* On 40-man roster
Feel free to discuss. I note that my projection should not be confused with the official SP.com projection, which may be found under the "Player Index" pulldown on the top of the screen.
I will post my AA projection in a week or two.
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 7, 2012 16:35:41 GMT -5
We lost fields in the rule 5 draft.... so assuming he is gone is accurate since he was selected first
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Post by elguapo on Dec 7, 2012 17:24:29 GMT -5
We lost fields in the rule 5 draft.... so assuming he is gone is accurate since he was selected first He is a good bet to stick but could be returned as early as spring training.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 7, 2012 18:43:23 GMT -5
Great list Adam, just a couple things I'd like to hear peoples opinions on.
1) I sure as hell hope you are wrong in regards to Chris Hernandez moving to the bullpen, a move that I believe diminishes most of his value. Am i missing something here? Chris Hernandez, 23 year old who's consistently succeeded at each level, can log innings, and has something to prove w/ all his doubters. Yet he would get moved to the pen for Graham Godfrey, 28 year old who is 1-6 w/ a 5.89ERA in MLB appearances. I just don't see the benefit in moving Hernandez to the pen in favor of Gorfrey or Doyle. I don't know if the FO views them as "SP depth", but I view them as "Tony Pena Jr's"
2) Is Lavarnway basically a lock to make the 25-man? Obviously we will find out depending on what they do with Saltalamacchia, but what do you all think? I'm not 100% on it. It sounds weird for a fairly solid prospect to still be in AAA while approaching the age of 26, but in Lava's case I could see it. Obviously different players in completely different situations, but it's happened before with certain catchers, AJ Ellis (30), David Ross (26), Ryan Hanigan (29) all got their first significant at-bats at those respective ages. It's more than just that though. Lavarnway was exposed at the MLB level last season, obviously interior fastball ate up his long swing, and he looked mismatched. He needs to shorten his swing, while developing his power, a hard task for Lavarnway, but one I believe he can accomplish with his work ethic. Then you have all the defensive inconsistencies that people point out. The point is, I would love to see Ryan break camp with Boston next season, but I wouldn't be 100% surprised if he started off in AAA. What does everyone else think?
-A couple guys I view as sleepers. Drew Sutton, came through when they needed him too, and I could see him in Boston by midseason due to injury of some sort. Also Aaron Kurcz, you have slated for the AA pen again. I got to see him last season and came away very impressed, touching 94 on the gun, blowing away opponent hitters, and pitching multiple innings. I could see him in AAA sooner than later, very underrated prospect in my opinion.
3) Anyone have any sleepers in AAA that you believe will make an impact in Boston?
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 7, 2012 18:51:37 GMT -5
I don't think he's a sleeper Charlie but I think De La Rosa will be in the rotation some time in 2013.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 7, 2012 20:04:48 GMT -5
Comments below in red/bold: Great list Adam, just a couple things I'd like to hear peoples opinions on. 1) I sure as hell hope you are wrong in regards to Chris Hernandez moving to the bullpen, a move that I believe diminishes most of his value. Am i missing something here? Chris Hernandez, 23 year old who's consistently succeeded at each level, can log innings, and has something to prove w/ all his doubters. Yet he would get moved to the pen for Graham Godfrey, 28 year old who is 1-6 w/ a 5.89ERA in MLB appearances. I just don't see the benefit in moving Hernandez to the pen in favor of Godfrey or Doyle. I don't know if the FO views them as SP depth;, but I view them as Tony Pena Jr's; Hernandez is ticketed to the bullpen, based on the scouting reports I've seen. He does not have the stuff to be a major league starter (there's a reason he's the #37 ranked prospect). It makes sense to begin giving him two inning stints now, especially with Rubby, Webster, Pimentel and Wright in the rotation. Godfrey and Doyle may top out as AAAA guys but maybe not, so it makes sense to give them a chance to show their wares, whereas the organization already likely knows where Hernandez is ending up.2) Is Lavarnway basically a lock to make the 25-man? Obviously we will find out depending on what they do with Saltalamacchia, but what do you all think? I'm not 100% on it. It sounds weird for a fairly solid prospect to still be in AAA while approaching the age of 26, but in Lava's case I could see it. Obviously different players in completely different situations, but it's happened before with certain catchers, AJ Ellis (30), David Ross (26), Ryan Hanigan (29) all got their first significant at-bats at those respective ages. It's more than just that though. Lavarnway was exposed at the MLB level last season, obviously interior fastball ate up his long swing, and he looked mismatched. He needs to shorten his swing, while developing his power, a hard task for Lavarnway, but one I believe he can accomplish with his work ethic. Then you have all the defensive inconsistencies that people point out. The point is, I would love to see Ryan break camp with Boston next season, but I wouldn't be 100% surprised if he started off in AAA. What does everyone else think? If Salty is not traded, Lavarnway will start in AAA (if he is not traded). I assumed Salty would be traded, as it makes the most sense to get a pitcher or upgrade the bench. I think late last year is too small a sample size to get worked up about.-A couple guys I view as sleepers. Drew Sutton, came through when they needed him too, and I could see him in Boston by midseason due to injury of some sort. Also Aaron Kurcz, you have slated for the AA pen again. I got to see him last season and came away very impressed, touching 94 on the gun, blowing away opponent hitters, and pitching multiple innings. I could see him in AAA sooner than later, very underrated prospect in my opinion. I don't see Sutton as a sleeper; he's a capable major league bench player, if needed. I would expect him to be in Boston at some point next year. Kurcz was impressive last year but could use another year to improve his pitch quality.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 8, 2012 4:10:29 GMT -5
Good points all around, but regarding Hernandez, you say that " Godfrey and Doyle may top out as AAAA guys but maybe not, so it makes sense to give them a chance to show their wares". I guess that's where we disagree. i could counter by saying that Hernandez could top out as an AAAA starter, but maybe not, so why not give him a chance? I understand your point, but I just don't see the point in automatically relegating Hernandez to the bullpen. He threw 42 inning in Pawtucket last season and put up descent numbers. It's only December, he's got time to adjust to certain aspects of AAA in the remaining month, so why already count him out now? My point is, there's nothing to lose by throwing him out there every 5 days for at least a couple of weeks. Worst case scenario, he struggles, and is sent to the pen permanently.
You haven't made this comparison, but if he transitions to the bullpen, Hernandez would be taking a similar path to Alex Wilson. Effective starter all the way to AAA, then moved to the pen. The only difference is that Wilson has the ceiling of a 7th-8th inning pitcher, while Hernandez is looked at in relief as a "situation guy". I'd value a 7th-8th inning reliever over a situation guy any day. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, but I fully understand your point of view.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 8, 2012 8:31:08 GMT -5
Good points all around, but regarding Hernandez, you say that Godfrey and Doyle may top out as AAAA guys but maybe not, so it makes sense to give them a chance to show their wares. I guess that's where we disagree. i could counter by saying that Hernandez could top out as an AAAA starter, but maybe not, so why not give him a chance? I understand your point, but I just don't see the point in automatically relegating Hernandez to the bullpen. He threw 42 inning in Pawtucket last season and put up descent numbers. It's only December, he's got time to adjust to certain aspects of AAA in the remaining month, so why already count him out now? My point is, there's nothing to lose by throwing him out there every 5 days for at least a couple of weeks. Worst case scenario, he struggles, and is sent to the pen permanently. You haven't made this comparison, but if he transitions to the bullpen, Hernandez would be taking a similar path to Alex Wilson. Effective starter all the way to AAA, then moved to the pen. The only difference is that Wilson has the ceiling of a 7th-8th inning pitcher, while Hernandez is looked at in relief as a situation guy. On your first point, I am not "counting" Hernandez out, but I am making a 2013 projection. With seven potential starters, one has to make decisions and the decision I made was to move Hernandez into a bullpen role because (1) he is the only lefty on the projected staff and (2) he ulimately projects into a bullpen role, so why not begin using him in shorter (1-2 inning) stints. If the Red Sox sign Rich Hill to begin the year in AAA, then perhaps they find a different role for Chris. They could also decide to start Pimentel, Webster or Rubby in AA or the bullpen, but my decision was to move Hernandez. I think you are underestimating Doyle and Godfrey. I favor our prospects and am a fan of promoting from within, but IMO both Doyle and Godfrey have higher ceilings and, other than handedness, higher floors than Hernandez. Doyle was an excellent get as a MLFA (he was the #2 pick in last year's Rule 5 draft and has been very good throughout his career); he's a guy I could see fitting into a major league pitching staff. Godfrey is a little more fringy but he projects as a solid bullpen arm at least. Both have major league options. Finally, on your Hernandez/Wilson comparison, it is the Red Sox way to keep prospects starting as long as possible and then switch them over (see Wilson, Huntzinger, Papelbon, etc). Therefore, it would be normal, even expected, for Hernandez (and perhaps Rubby and Pimentel) to switch over at some point. With two inning stints, he could easily build back up to be a starter, if injuries/trades occur. I'm not giving up on Chris; I'm merely reflecting the reality that the Pawtucket pitching staff is stacked. Literally, every single one of the currently projected PawSox pitchers (Rubby, Webster, Pimentel, Wright, Godfrey, Doyle, C.Hernandez, C.Carpenter, Beato, A.Wilson, Bard, Huntzinger) has or will likely pitch in the majors at some point.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 8, 2012 10:25:49 GMT -5
Pimentel could be moved to the bullpen instead of Hernandez. You never know what are getting when Pimentel is on the bump.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 8, 2012 10:55:01 GMT -5
I think it's time for Stolmy to go to the pen. He has one option remaining and he has to " live an arm" to waste it. He hasn't developed in time as a starter - it's not worth the gamble using another year on it. Give him the best chance to succeed in the pen by properly preparing him for that leading up to the year. If Britton doesn't improve greatly as a starter this year then the same is true for him next offseason.
I know I'm in the minority on the value of bullpen arms. It's hard to quantify with numbers so new age stat heads think of bullpen arms as dime a dozen but the best teams have great bullpens and a great pen can make an average team or rotation that much better. Especially, young, cost controlled - power arms. Those early 2000 LAA teams were good in large part due to their bullpen. The Mariners of the 90s weren't because of a crapy pen,. Braves of the 90s only won once because their bullpen wasn't good.
Yes there can be variances year to year and free agency can be risky. All the more reason to have young power arms from your own system.
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Post by jmei on Dec 8, 2012 11:21:23 GMT -5
Yeah, I think Stolmy goes to the pen given his option status. It's just about put up or shut up time for him, and I don't think he'd ever stick with the major league team as a starter. I think most observers have him pegged as a bullpen piece anyways, and maybe a move to that role helps his command or gives him a tic more velocity.
Granted, given that two starters need to be converted to the bullpen, I think either Hernandez or Godfrey goes to the bullpen as well, and at this point I'm leaning Hernandez. The thing with Hernandez is not just that he's a soft-tossing lefty, but that his peripherals are all pretty mediocre as well. It's not like he's striking a lot of guys out or doesn't walk anyone and maybe he can maintain those rates at the major league level. It's tough to project him as more than a Zach Stewart-esque emergency starter unless he either significantly tightens up his command or significantly alters his pitch repertoire.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2012 12:21:21 GMT -5
I have to say, the Sox really erred putting Stolmy on the 40-man so long before he was ready. He's burned two options without mastering Double-A and they've had to play quite a few roster games the last two years with all the injuries to avoid designating him.
Addressing the Pawtucket roster, I think I'd lean toward Stolmy in the pen and Hernandez in the rotation, with Doyle as the swing man.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 8, 2012 13:44:00 GMT -5
This is a good discussion and perhaps we ought to keep an eye at spring training on the usage and potential roles for all three of Pimentel, Doyle and Hernandez (assuming, of course, that Stolmy is not traded in the interim).
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 8, 2012 17:53:43 GMT -5
Definitely, I'll also have an eye on the OF jam. Assuming Kalish starts the year in AAA, you'll have 5 players that you can legitimately consider prospects, plus Bradley knocking on the door in early June.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 9, 2012 16:24:36 GMT -5
It is going to be very interesting how the ML bullpen, the pawsox pitching staff and the pawsox of all shake out.
But a few other points to mention: 1. The Red Sox need to get a strong LH bat, some speed, a first baseman and a plus defensive OF from their two bench OF spots (would also be nice to get a backup 3B in there). I don't think sands makes much sense as he can only fill one of those rolls
2. That ML rotation could be quite good - or it could be scary bad. A dependable starter is a major need right now (i advocate overpaying Edwin Jackson on a short deal)
3. Brentz may be good fit to get some 1b time as he would be able to help more on the ML roster in 2014.
My sleeper would have to be Linares. His contact and fielding both appear to be plus tools and his power is solid. If he can stay healthy i think he will be a second division starter for several years.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Dec 10, 2012 0:07:04 GMT -5
Objection, your honor. WC is right about Linares as a keeper. Hee is a must. A fan favorite at McCoy.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2012 9:59:00 GMT -5
I'm all about player flexibility but not sure I'd put Brentz at 1b just yet. Hassan, I would in a heartbeat. It just comes down to player value. I don't want to mess with Brentzs development in any way. There are very few scenarios in which he'd be used there by the big club any time soon.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Dec 10, 2012 23:36:28 GMT -5
Sox got Rosario again .... bet that he goes on waivers again very soon. he is within an inch of clearing waivers. he Cleared the entire NL in Oct when FLA waived him. ANd in NOv, he cleared 12 or more AL teams before OAK got him.
I think he only has to clear NY & Det. Unless somebody changes their mind. Or FLA or OAK re-claims him, yet again.
The bloom is off the Rosario. Almost.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 11, 2012 13:50:44 GMT -5
It 2. That ML rotation could be quite good -or it could be scary bad. A dependable starter is a major need right now (i advocate overpaying Edwin Jackson on a short deal). It looks like Cherrington is trying to get a FA starter on a short deal. He tried Dempster for 2 years and now that Dempster has declined, he will probably move on to offer another starter a two year deal. I would not be opposed to Jackson on a two year deal.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 27, 2012 22:36:56 GMT -5
Below is my second AAA projection, based on the following assumptions for the parent club:
Red Sox starters - Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Lackey, Doubront (Morales to the bullpen, per my initial comments)
Red Sox bullpen - Hanrahan, Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Morales, Miller, Breslow (Hanrahan and Morales added, Mortensen dropped, assumes Aceves is traded and Bard begins in AAA)
Red Sox lineup - Ellsbury, Drew, Pedroia, Ortiz, Gomes, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Gomez, Victorino (Drew added, assumes Saltalamacchia is not traded and Napoli is not signed)
Red Sox bench - Ciriaco, Lavarnway, D.Ross, Nava (Sands traded, added Lavarnway)
2013 Pawtucket roster (age as of 3/30/12):
(SP) De La Rosa* (23), Webster* (23), Wright* (28), Godfrey (28) (trade), Doyle (27) (signed as MLFA) (With Pimentel's trade (as suggested by my initial comments), the Red Sox have six starters for five spots. I moved Hernandez to the bullpen. It is possible that De La Rosa and/or Webster could get pushed to AA for 6-8 weeks if everyone is healthy.)
(RP) C.Carpenter* (26), A.Wilson* (25), Bard* (24), C.Hernandez (23), Huntzinger (23), two of Beato (25), Villareal (31) (signed as MLFA), De La Torre (26) (re-signed as MLFA), Carter (26) (signed as MLFA) (R5: Fields (26)) (Two of Beato/Villareal/De La Torre/Carter would make the roster, with another making the "taxi squad". I favor Beato/DLT over the other two. I assume Fields will not be back and I see Kurcz starting the year in AA.)
(OF) Brentz (23), Kalish* (24), Hassan* (23), Hazelbaker (25), Linares (27) (With Kalish likely starting the year in AAA, Bradley likely starts in AA, with both being promoted by Memorial Day. I could see Linares being cut in spring training or being on the "taxi squad".)
(IF) Maier (30) (signed as MLFA), Holt* (24) (trade), Iglesias* (23), Sutton (29) (signed as MLFA), Henry (27) (trade), one of T.Thomas (26), Hee (25), Dent (23) (Maier likely makes the team as 1B with Gomez in Boston. Only one of Thomas, Hee and Dent make the team, with another being on the "taxi squad". I could see Dent going back to AA for the third time.)
(C) Butler* (25), Spring (27) (re-signed as MLFA), Rosario (26) (signed as MLFA) (Spring and Rosario compete to be Butler's backup, with the loser going on the "taxi squad".)
* On 40-man roster
Feel free to discuss. I note that my projection should not be confused with the official SP.com projection, which may be found under the "Player Index" pulldown on the top of the screen.
I will post my AA projection next week.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 27, 2012 23:49:55 GMT -5
Tough time to make projections, because it looks like the team has built depth at multiple spots (C, RP, SS) in what one could logically conclude to be a preparation for a significant trade. I do have a question about Salty, Lavarnway, and Ross all being on the roster? That situation and the fact that seeing Mauro Gomez on any lineup making me cringe keep pointing me towards something larger happening in the next few weeks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 28, 2012 1:01:14 GMT -5
Tough time to make projections, because it looks like the team has built depth at multiple spots (C, RP, SS) in what one could logically conclude to be a preparation for a significant trade. I do have a question about Salty, Lavarnway, and Ross all being on the roster? That situation and the fact that seeing Mauro Gomez on any lineup making me cringe keep pointing me towards something larger happening in the next few weeks. All that needs to happen is the Napoli signing. The projection has Gomez starting. I don't think Napoli's a 100% certainty at this point, but I don't think it's dipped below 85% yet. Once he signs, it bumps Lavarnway down to Triple-A (excepting trades of course) and one of Rosario or Spring is either cut or in Portland.
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Post by jmei on Dec 28, 2012 1:21:10 GMT -5
The logjam of outfielders in Pawtucket to start the season only makes the Hassan Rule 5 decisions all the more perplexing. If he hadn't been added to the 40-man roster, he'd be one of the outfielders I'd think would be in danger of either starting in AA or being cut from the roster. Linares and Hazelbaker both have higher ceilings and more likely futures as bench players, right? Not to mention JBJ pushing for a spot with Pawtucket by May/June. That decision continues to confuse and irritate me.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 28, 2012 13:36:19 GMT -5
The logjam of outfielders in Pawtucket to start the season only makes the Hassan Rule 5 decisions all the more perplexing. If he hadn't been added to the 40-man roster, he'd be one of the outfielders I'd think would be in danger of either starting in AA or being cut from the roster. Linares and Hazelbaker both have higher ceilings and more likely futures as bench players, right? Not to mention JBJ pushing for a spot with Pawtucket by May/June. That decision continues to confuse and irritate me. I will not be surprised to see Hassan take some time at first base. He has the physical profile (defensively, at least) and it will increase his versatility.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 28, 2012 19:57:24 GMT -5
The logjam of outfielders in Pawtucket to start the season only makes the Hassan Rule 5 decisions all the more perplexing. ... Linares and Hazelbaker both have higher ceilings and more likely futures as bench players, right? Hassan isn't as good a bet for backup OF but I think (it seems the Sox think so, and I was impressed when looking at the numbers trying to figure out why) that he has a shot to be a starting corner OF with strong on-base ability and decent fielding. He's a year younger than Hazelbaker who didn't really progress in his 2nd year at AA and 4 years younger than Linares, who didn't need to be added yet. And he put up better numbers than Brentz at the same age in AA. Hassan started last season with a dreadful 0-fer-15, but got on a very productive roll until his injury. We should see this year whether he is for real.
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