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Post by barney27 on Aug 8, 2016 5:50:48 GMT -5
Good topic. Got lots of juices flowing. The sox are in a good place overall. Certainly could be better in the standings, but have lots of excellent young players in the bigs. They have several players in the farm system that get everyone worked up about where they go and when they play in the bigs. My greatest fear is that dd wrecks it all with LOTS more trades giving the farm away for one player. It appears right now that dd will not trade away 4 or 5 of his prospects and young players to get one player like a sales. I will give dd his one kimbrell trade but no more. You have to give something to get something. Kimbrell appears to be a quality reliever and margot is a quality young outfielder. The 2 infielders had several people ahead of them and the pitcher was a low level prospect throw in. But no more. This year's draft appears that they have 3 or 4 excellent looking prospects. Maybe a pitcher. hooray. Peace brother and enjoy the riches we have.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 8, 2016 6:06:15 GMT -5
The White Sox aren't doing a 1-for-1 for Sale. And yeah I do not understand at all why so many people are so hot to trade JBJ. If it weren't for the success of Betts and Bogaerts not one person would be advocating for trading Bradley. That's the point, it depends on the trade. I'm certainly not hot to trade him. I've been advocating for him, even through the miserable times. Repeatedly, to people blathering on about what a bust he was and how they should DFA him. The White Sox won't do a 1-for-1? Then for me the trade doesn't happen. Simple as that. Which is why the trade probably won't happen, because the White Sox would ask for too much (Bradley alone might be too much). I simply commented on the reasonableness of the idea, not its viability. Trading position players for pitchers is always a dicey proposition. But, based on resource scarcity (#1 starters vs. 5-WAR OFs), and the Sox's minor league system, that trade addresses a high-end need while potentially having an internal solution. It's a fair trade in a vacuum and it makes some sense from a Red Sox perspective, yes. But Bradley only has one more year of control than Sale, and if he keeps performing at this level, or even close, his arbitration salaries might even surpass Sale's money. That deal would make zero sense for Chicago. They may not be in total rebuild mode, but if they are trading Sale they are going to want several assets who will be under their control for years beyond he is.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 8, 2016 14:26:05 GMT -5
That's the point, it depends on the trade. I'm certainly not hot to trade him. I've been advocating for him, even through the miserable times. Repeatedly, to people blathering on about what a bust he was and how they should DFA him. The White Sox won't do a 1-for-1? Then for me the trade doesn't happen. Simple as that. Which is why the trade probably won't happen, because the White Sox would ask for too much (Bradley alone might be too much). I simply commented on the reasonableness of the idea, not its viability. Trading position players for pitchers is always a dicey proposition. But, based on resource scarcity (#1 starters vs. 5-WAR OFs), and the Sox's minor league system, that trade addresses a high-end need while potentially having an internal solution. It's a fair trade in a vacuum and it makes some sense from a Red Sox perspective, yes. But Bradley only has one more year of control than Sale, and if he keeps performing at this level, or even close, his arbitration salaries might even surpass Sale's money. That deal would make zero sense for Chicago. They may not be in total rebuild mode, but if they are trading Sale they are going to want several assets who will be under their control for years beyond he is. I agre that from Chicago's standpoint, they *may* want to do a blow-up rebuild. My original post wasn't about whether they could get a better deal elsewhere, but whether the proposal was fair, and made sense. Bradley will make much less in his last pre-arb and first two arb years. He might exceed Sale's last year salary in his final arb, when he'll probably be around $13-15. Remember that arb depends solely on old-school stats (BA, HR, RBI) and defense is irrelevant. So unless he's hitting .320/25/110, he's not getting stratospheric compensation. It gives Chicago an extra year to squeeze value from Quintana/Abreu/et al., and one more year for some of their younger players like Anderson to develop. In general, I agree with you, because Fullmer doesn't look like he's going to slot into the rotation to fill Sale's shoes, and Rodon probably is a low-end 2 at best. For both teams, it's one of those "fill a hole, create one" trades that people often propose on here, and I shake my head at. I would argue, however, that the Red Sox appear to be capable of filling the giant void JBJ would leave, internally, by putting Moncada in RF and moving Mookie to CF. The issue is that it would probably hurt, defensively (how much/how long, it's tougher to say). I'm less convinced that Chicago can replace Sale. The question is if they would really need to, or if they could find a #3 and try to emulate the 2015 Royals, with a better offense but not as good a bullpen (depending on Fullmer's final place). My point was that as challenge trades go (and those, if involving good players, always hurt *a lot* to make), it's actually reasonable.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2016 14:00:06 GMT -5
It's very easy to identify JBJ's hot and cold streaks. So here are his 8 way splits: Hot / Cold, Home / Road, and LHP / RHP. The number is wOBA and it starts from his installation as a regular last July 29, and this year is weighted 3 versus last year's 2.
JBJ Hot
PA RHP LHP Home 163 60 Away 101 49 wOBA RHP LHP Home .506 .568 Away .471 .381 JBJ Cold
PA RHP LHP Home 124 61 Away 167 85 wOBA RHP LHP Home .262 .214 Away .286 .193 The first thing you notice is that he's been hotter much more often at home than on the road. How much of that is real and how much is random is unclear (geekage at the end, if you're interested), but for practical purposes, it's moot. You almost always know whether he's hot or cold, and you know whether you're at home or not, and you can platoon him based on that.
When he's hot, he actually has a reverse split at home. That's consistent with a lot of good LHH loving Fenway. His home / road splits, and his platoon split on the road, are unsurprising.
When he's cold, he's actually somewhat better versus RHP away from Fenway. That may or may not be random.
The obvious take-home here is that JBJ should be platooned whenever he's slumping, but only then. That would be close to 30 games a year at his current ratio of hot to cold (53% cold in 2016). That's rather too much, and of course it's a defensive downgrade. If you sat him only when slumping, against the 75% of LHSP with the biggest platoon splits, that would be 140 GS, and that sounds perfect. And if he did sit against all but the mild-and reverse-split LHP whenever he was slumping, you might end up improving the hot / cold ratio, either because of the extra rest or because of reduced frustration.
Why the correlation of hot to home may be partly random: only in the last few months does he show any pattern of going from cold to hot while at home, or from hot to cold when on the road. In 2015, for instance, he started his ridiculous hot streak in game 6 of an 8 day road trip and eventually turned ice cold starting with the last 2 games of a 9-game homestand. And it's hard to pass the two games off as noise when he was 0/7, BB, 3 SO after going 4/4, 2B, HR in the last game of the empirical hot streak, and then continued to hit poorly. He ended up with a big split because there were 17 road games and 9 home games left when he turned cold, and because the hot streak happened to be mostly in two home stands sandwiched around a short road trip.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 19, 2016 0:43:39 GMT -5
We may learn a little more under the potential pressure of this road trip. But Camden Yards should make him a happy LHB camper
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 8, 2017 6:51:04 GMT -5
Who would have guessed that the leading OPS on the Sox would be JBJ? The Sox patience paid off big with him. Should they try to extend him with a reasonable deal or is he getting to that point of stardom where FA or a big deal is in order?
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 8, 2017 7:16:48 GMT -5
Who would have guessed that the leading OPS on the Sox would be JBJ? The Sox patience paid off big with him. Should they try to extend him with a reasonable deal or is he getting to that point of stardom where FA or a big deal is in order? Worth a shot. But, if I remember correctly he has Boris as his agent, so that probably won't happen. This site has been tough on him. But, he is a gold glove type centerfielder, who sometimes hits like Ted Williams and other times hits like Cindy Williams from happy days. I like him. He seems like a real good guy.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 8, 2017 8:46:22 GMT -5
He has fans on the site. It's not going to be possible for the team to keep every player who came out of their system, but I'd like to see them make a good offer to Bradley.
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 8, 2017 9:49:01 GMT -5
He has fans on the site. It's not going to be possible for the team to keep every player who came out of their system, but I'd like to see them make a good offer to Bradley. With out a doubt. I think they will make a very good offer, the question becomes how crazy the other teams get?
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 8, 2017 10:36:06 GMT -5
Who would have guessed that the leading OPS on the Sox would be JBJ? The Sox patience paid off big with him. Should they try to extend him with a reasonable deal or is he getting to that point of stardom where FA or a big deal is in order? Worth a shot. But, if I remember correctly he has Boris as his agent, so that probably won't happen. This site has been tough on him. But, he is a gold glove type centerfielder, who sometimes hits like Ted Williams and other times hits like Cindy Williams from happy days. I like him. He seems like a real good guy. He has definitely had his light hitting days but over his last 1000 AB's his OPS is well over 800. Yes also in the past he has pushed his numbers up to that level over short periods of extreme production combined with some Sally like months but it seems like he has become a bit more consistent this year. Either way he is one of my favorite players and would love to see him out in CF for the next 5/7 years.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2017 15:38:00 GMT -5
I'm have reservations about how well JBJ will age. A lot of his value is tied up in his defense. If we're talking about a 8 year deal or something, I'm shying away from that.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2017 16:43:03 GMT -5
I'm have reservations about how well JBJ will age. A lot of his value is tied up in his defense. If we're talking about a 8 year deal or something, I'm shying away from that. I love the guy but Mookie's the one I try to lock up til he's at least 30 first and foremost, which should be doable since it gives him another bite at the Free Agent apple after his age 30 year. JBJ I wouldn't extend past age 30 and would even - and I hate saying this - continue to explore trades for top talent in the off season while his value is at his peak.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2017 17:18:19 GMT -5
On the other hand, JBJ's game is not built on speed so maybe I'm wrong about how he'll age.
But of course, Mookie is the one you can't let go. He'll also be by far the most expensive.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2017 18:04:12 GMT -5
The real question is how long of a leash they should have for him. When do they just give up and move on? I mean, he was terrible for something like 500 PA, can we really trust the last 1000+? He's so streaky too...
Maybe we can trade him for some relief help?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2017 21:21:17 GMT -5
I like JBJ and think he's a fine player. I don't see much point in trying to trade for him. It's not like the Red Sox have a major prospect looking for an outfield job. Brannen is many years away if ever. Mars and Matheny project to back backup OF, and I wouldn't push JBJ out of the way to see if Brentz has finally figured things out.
JBJ is great as the Sox CF through 2020. After that, though, I would not try to re-sign him. There's only so much money to go around, and if the Sox want to try to extend Chris Sale and Mookie Betts, and maybe Xander Bogaerts, well that's a lot of money.
And add to it by 2020 JBJ is 30 and probably nearing the end of his elite CF days and perhaps nearing his CF days altogether. He's a good offensive player, but it's not hard to see his BA dipping by 2020 or soon afterward.
Frankly, I'd hope that the money gets spent on Otani, if that's a possibility as he's the only free agent I'd want the Sox to go crazy for, although he might not be available the way we'd imagine as a free agent.
So I can imagine a .240ish hitter with a decent OBP and SA but declining defensive skills, and that's not somebody I'd want to give $200 million to.
I'd prioritize Betts, then Sale, and that might be about it. Xander probably won't be a SS by then, so unless he moves to an OF corner to replace JBJ or slides over to 3b if Devers is needed at 1b or DH, I don't know that even committing to Xander is the greatest idea, but even if he's worth it, I'd prioritize him 3rd after Betts and Sale, with Betts' skills set being something that I'd want to build around, and if Sale stays reasonably healthy and effective, I'd take the gamble on extending him as his K/BB ratio is pretty amazing and could stay pretty amazing, the way Schilling's did.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 9, 2017 12:37:31 GMT -5
I like JBJ and think he's a fine player. I don't see much point in trying to trade for him. It's not like the Red Sox have a major prospect looking for an outfield job. Brannen is many years away if ever. Mars and Matheny project to back backup OF, and I wouldn't push JBJ out of the way to see if Brentz has finally figured things out. JBJ is great as the Sox CF through 2020. After that, though, I would not try to re-sign him. There's only so much money to go around, and if the Sox want to try to extend Chris Sale and Mookie Betts, and maybe Xander Bogaerts, well that's a lot of money. And add to it by 2020 JBJ is 30 and probably nearing the end of his elite CF days and perhaps nearing his CF days altogether. He's a good offensive player, but it's not hard to see his BA dipping by 2020 or soon afterward. Frankly, I'd hope that the money gets spent on Otani, if that's a possibility as he's the only free agent I'd want the Sox to go crazy for, although he might not be available the way we'd imagine as a free agent. So I can imagine a .240ish hitter with a decent OBP and SA but declining defensive skills, and that's not somebody I'd want to give $200 million to. I'd prioritize Betts, then Sale, and that might be about it. Xander probably won't be a SS by then, so unless he moves to an OF corner to replace JBJ or slides over to 3b if Devers is needed at 1b or DH, I don't know that even committing to Xander is the greatest idea, but even if he's worth it, I'd prioritize him 3rd after Betts and Sale, with Betts' skills set being something that I'd want to build around, and if Sale stays reasonably healthy and effective, I'd take the gamble on extending him as his K/BB ratio is pretty amazing and could stay pretty amazing, the way Schilling's did. I agree 100% on Betts/Sale, and Otani frankly. I'm of a mind to keep Bogey, because he's a terrific baserunner and an above-average hitter, but who knows (as you say) if he can stick at SS or if his bat can play at a more offensively-minded position. The power is still locked in there somewhere. Baserunning isn't exactly coveted on the market either (at least, as a major draw), and I'm curious to see where his arb #s go. He may be less costly than we think. JBJ is an interesting case. He's not a particularly speedy guy...his defense is largely instinct, precise routes, good jumps, and a fantastic arm. That's the sort of skillset that will age well in CF. He's got a good eye, is a solid baserunner, hits lefties, has some pop, and *may* get less streaky with age. Not a guy I'd want to sign for more than 5 years, but an extension through age 34-35 at reasonable cost (could they get him for $18-20M now?) preserves their tremendous OF.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 10, 2017 3:51:19 GMT -5
I'm guessing that by the end of 2018 or maybe NEXT years' trade deadline somebody is going to get traded to make room for Chavis in LF. JBJ makes the most sense as of now but things change.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 10, 2017 4:05:03 GMT -5
I don't see any of the outfielders getting traded within the next three years at all. Hopefully Benny and Mookie are lifers here with the Sox (or spend the their whole bulk of their best years here).
Cole Brannan is the best candidate to take over in CF in 3-4 years if JBJ isn't retained imo.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 10, 2017 5:42:52 GMT -5
I don't see any of the outfielders getting traded within the next three years at all. Hopefully Benny and Mookie are lifers here with the Sox (or spend the their whole bulk of their best years here). Cole Brannan is the best candidate to take over in CF in 3-4 years if JBJ isn't retained imo. Cole Brannon is in the GCL. He's not the best candidate for anything in the major leagues. Especially in 3-4 yrs. Lowell, Greenville, Salem, Portland, Pawtucket, Boston - that's 5-6 years for the typical 18 year old progression who makes it all the way. Sure there's Mookie, but I wouldn't count on that.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2017 12:19:35 GMT -5
I like JBJ and think he's a fine player. I don't see much point in trying to trade for him. It's not like the Red Sox have a major prospect looking for an outfield job. Brannen is many years away if ever. Mars and Matheny project to back backup OF, and I wouldn't push JBJ out of the way to see if Brentz has finally figured things out. JBJ is great as the Sox CF through 2020. After that, though, I would not try to re-sign him. There's only so much money to go around, and if the Sox want to try to extend Chris Sale and Mookie Betts, and maybe Xander Bogaerts, well that's a lot of money. And add to it by 2020 JBJ is 30 and probably nearing the end of his elite CF days and perhaps nearing his CF days altogether. He's a good offensive player, but it's not hard to see his BA dipping by 2020 or soon afterward. Frankly, I'd hope that the money gets spent on Otani, if that's a possibility as he's the only free agent I'd want the Sox to go crazy for, although he might not be available the way we'd imagine as a free agent. So I can imagine a .240ish hitter with a decent OBP and SA but declining defensive skills, and that's not somebody I'd want to give $200 million to. I'd prioritize Betts, then Sale, and that might be about it. Xander probably won't be a SS by then, so unless he moves to an OF corner to replace JBJ or slides over to 3b if Devers is needed at 1b or DH, I don't know that even committing to Xander is the greatest idea, but even if he's worth it, I'd prioritize him 3rd after Betts and Sale, with Betts' skills set being something that I'd want to build around, and if Sale stays reasonably healthy and effective, I'd take the gamble on extending him as his K/BB ratio is pretty amazing and could stay pretty amazing, the way Schilling's did. If Otani is actually posted - and I still can't figure out why his team would do this unless the owners are getting a duffel bag of cash on the side from MLB - it will be a fixed $20M posting fee that does not count against the luxury tax and an extremely affordable annual salary capped by MLB (I believe about $6M to start). So that's basically the cost of a grade B or C free agent or a very good seventh or eight inning reliever. Bottom line: This isn't an either-or choice. The hardest thing would be convincing Otani to sign with Boston over LA, SF, NYY or Texas (if they retain Darvish, who is reportedly close with Otani).
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2017 12:21:59 GMT -5
I'm guessing that by the end of 2018 or maybe NEXT years' trade deadline somebody is going to get traded to make room for Chavis in LF. JBJ makes the most sense as of now but things change. I'm as bullish on Chavis as anyone else, but it remains to be seen if he can even hit AA pitching.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 16, 2017 22:50:07 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 16, 2017 22:50:20 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 16, 2017 22:50:49 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 17, 2017 7:49:13 GMT -5
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