SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by xanderdu on Nov 19, 2015 13:42:54 GMT -5
What is the value of a hit stolen seemingly every 2nd game? I ask because that value never seems to find a place in the JBJ calculus. Is it a 1 stolen hit equals 1 offensive hit of equal value? I don't know, and I'm hoping smarter heads than my own can clue me in. Just seems to me this is a value that places JBJ that much higher on the overall value scale; obviously not enough to overcome his 2014 offensive woes, but one that should make his 2016 that much more valuable, even if he just matches the 2015 numbers.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 13:59:28 GMT -5
I think you're talking simply about defensive value. It doesn't need to correlate to offensive value. Everyone believes JBJ is an everyday player even if he hits .235/.300/.385
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 19, 2015 14:06:10 GMT -5
That's a tough one. Win probability allows us to figure out how the tenor of a game was changed given some event. A relief pitcher comes on with one out, guys on 2nd and 3rd, and retires the next two batters. Historical statistics, that good old data mining we can do these days, means we can get a very accurate differential between that, and what has typically happened probalistically through the baseball ages. Add that up for any given player, and for every pitching or hitting opportunity they had over a season and you have a very high level metric for their value.
For defense, we'd have to be able to figure out what that sort of hit (line drive, pop-up, grounder through the hole and so on...) at that location (shallow, deep, intermediate, in the gap...) has typically meant in terms of bases, who was on at the time, and how that affected the game state. That would allow for that win probability differential calculation to take place. Field/fx may give us that, but it hasn't been released yet and I have no idea where you'd get historical statistics to build the empirical probability distribution you'd need.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,656
|
Post by gerry on Nov 19, 2015 14:19:09 GMT -5
I think you're talking simply about defensive value. It doesn't need to correlate to offensive value. Everyone believes JBJ is an everyday player even if he hits .235/.300/.385 Yes, an everday player who: 1. Is as likely to become an asset at the plate as not. The numbers in 13 and 14 must be minimized because of the circumstances at the time 2. Is likely to continue contributing to the aggressive and highly effective baserunning culture which dominated the kid's second half. Rusney/Swihart/JBJ/Mookie/Pedey/XB/ Brockatar pose a constant threat to pitchers, catchers and infielders, enhancing tbe run scoring environment, like KC. 3. Is a perpetual GG candidate in CF, RF, LF, not just taking away hits but preventing runners from advancing and scoring; and pilig up Aasists. 4. He is too valuable to trade and is not easily or reasonably replaced. 5. His reasonable contract allow DDo to spend in areas of genuine need. 6. .Juat aign a top FA TOR.and a solid 4th OF. 7. If his hitting becomes a black hole (unlikely), Benitendi is too close to clog the OF with high priced, long term replacements like Gordon or Haywaed, as good as tbey are.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 14:27:41 GMT -5
I think you're talking simply about defensive value. It doesn't need to correlate to offensive value. Everyone believes JBJ is an everyday player even if he hits .235/.300/.385 Yes, an everday player who: 1. Is as likely to become an asset at the plate as not. The numbers in 13 and 14 must be minimized because of the circumstances at the time 2. Is likely to continue contributing to the aggressive and highly effective baserunning culture which dominated the kid's second half. Rusney/Swihart/JBJ/Mookie/Pedey/XB/ Brockatar pose a constant threat to pitchers, catchers and infielders, enhancing tbe run scoring environment, like KC. 3. Is a perpetual GG candidate in CF, RF, LF, not just taking away hits but preventing runners from advancing and scoring; and pilig up Aasists. 4. He is too valuable to trade and is not easily or reasonably replaced. 5. His reasonable contract allow DDo to spend in areas of genuine need. 6. .Juat aign a top FA TOR.and a solid 4th OF. 7. If his hitting becomes a black hole (unlikely), Benitendi is too close to clog the OF with high priced, long term replacements like Gordon or Haywaed, as good as tbey are. I like JBJ. But if he's the lynchpin for a big time starter, then I'm buying his plane tickets for him. Also, I don't think we can think of Benintendi as all that close yet. He played 19 games in Greenville. We can pump the brakes a little bit. If he rockets up to AA quickly next year, then I'll be convinced. But we have to factor things in like proper development, and also proper conditioning to get through the much longer seasons in professional baseball.
|
|
|
Post by xanderdu on Nov 19, 2015 14:46:21 GMT -5
I think you're talking simply about defensive value. It doesn't need to correlate to offensive value. Everyone believes JBJ is an everyday player even if he hits .235/.300/.385 But we know simple defensive metrics don't accurately capture basic performance. JBJ is in another Rheem in his ability to take away hits. I also wonder what his placement on defense does to opposing hitters? Do they adjust their swing based on where JBJ is playing. In other words, do slap hitters try to jack it over him because he's taking their sweet spot away, and alternatively, do power hitters level out and hit line drives because JBJ will track down gap and warning track struck balls. I think there are some significant intangibles to having a lifetime fielder at a key position like CF. I also wonder if DDo has a sense of that value, and hence his reluctance to trade him.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Nov 19, 2015 14:55:32 GMT -5
My guess is that JBJ has more "value" or "worth" to the Red Sox than to another team, unless one or two teams fully project his bat to develop into an above average skill set. Thus, I don't really see him being traded. I certainly don't see him as the lynchpin to a deal for an elite player, and if they can keep a cost controlled 2+ WAR player then do so. I'd guess his arbitration $'s will be low given that his value doesn't come from the offense, and with so many other big contracts, and potentially big arbitration #'s from Bogaerts, Betts, etc., JBJ is a great piece to have so long as he is a competent hitter
|
|
|
Post by xanderdu on Nov 19, 2015 15:10:11 GMT -5
That's a tough one. Win probability allows us to figure out how the tenor of a game was changed given some event. A relief pitcher comes on with one out, guys on 2nd and 3rd, and retires the next two batters. Historical statistics, that good old data mining we can do these days, means we can get a very accurate differential between that, and what has typically happened probalistically through the baseball ages. Add that up for any given player, and for every pitching or hitting opportunity they had over a seasonm and you have a very high level metric for their value. For defense, we'd have to be able to figure out what that sort of hit (line drive, pop-up, grounder through the hole and so on...) at that location (shallow, deep, intermediate, in the gap...) has typically meant in terms of bases, who was on at the time, and how that affected the game state. That would allow for that win probability differential calculation to take place. Field/fx may give us that, but it hasn't been released yet and I have no idea where you'd get historical statistics to build the empirical probability distribution you'd need. Good reply. You got pretty far to where I was hoping the discussion would go. I assume the team's have proprietary data that would get closer to real value. From my own experience playing ball for 40 years, few plays could turn a game like robbing a hit at a key point in the game. I've learned enough from metrics to know not to trust my gut feeling, and that's why I'm hoping someone can provide that deeper insight.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
|
Post by nomar on Nov 19, 2015 15:35:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind a Wheeler JBJ swap.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 19, 2015 15:54:57 GMT -5
I'm sure you wouldn't. The Mets should laugh at us though.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 19, 2015 15:55:18 GMT -5
Is anyone else's time stamp all messed up?
|
|
|
Post by kman22 on Nov 19, 2015 15:56:54 GMT -5
I'm sure you wouldn't. The Mets should laugh at us though. Didn't he almost go for a banged up Carlos Gomez?
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 19, 2015 16:01:42 GMT -5
No he almost went for one of the best all around players in baseball then was pulled back when they felt he was banged up.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 16:08:45 GMT -5
My guess is that JBJ has more "value" or "worth" to the Red Sox than to another team, unless one or two teams fully project his bat to develop into an above average skill set. Thus, I don't really see him being traded. I certainly don't see him as the lynchpin to a deal for an elite player, and if they can keep a cost controlled 2+ WAR player then do so. I'd guess his arbitration $'s will be low given that his value doesn't come from the offense, and with so many other big contracts, and potentially big arbitration #'s from Bogaerts, Betts, etc., JBJ is a great piece to have so long as he is a competent hitter Sure. I also don't think the Sox FO is evaluating players based on their "value" or "worth" in a vacuum. I think their main goal is building an optimized team while not losing too much future performance. They view something like the present value of Kimbrel as paramount, because their business is slightly lagging due to poor performance, but they also see a multitude of young affordable talent appearing and the idea of contention is coming into view. There is no sense in evaluating prospects in a vacuum, or trying to determine a players value as a universal. Value's range heavily depending on system, other players in system, and things like ballpark factors. Javier Guerra in a vacuum is a really decent prospect. Slick glove, cannon arm, interesting bat. To the yankees, for whom he'd play 81 games, he could be extremely valuable given his dead-pull stroke to right field which would be conveniently aimed at that short porch. 81 games at Fenway however would be much less kind to his potential homer totals. JBJ is worth a lot more in Petco or AT&T Park, than he is in say, Great American Ballpark. We really need to stop pretending like all our estimated values of players exist in a vacuum and don't fluctuate heavily based on the needs of seller and buyer, and the time-sensitive atmosphere of the market. edit: and I don't mean to insist you mrredsox89 were insinuating anything different, just ranting and going off on a tangent
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 19, 2015 17:08:23 GMT -5
No he almost went for one of the best all around players in baseball then was pulled back when they felt he was banged up. Going by BR, Bradley and Gomez were worth about the same even though Bradley played in 41 fewer games. He's also four years younger.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2015 17:50:27 GMT -5
The Mets don't really need a center fielder (Lagares is a very similar player), but I don't think Wheeler is worth that much more than Bradley. Both under team control through 2019, both players with a sizable risk profile (Wheeler coming off TJ, Bradley's offensive ups and downs), both have flashed above-average MLB potential. Wheeler's probably a little more valuable since there's this perception that he's a future ace while Bradley gets dinged because the bulk of his value comes from his defense, but I don't think the gap is (or should be) that large.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2015 18:11:56 GMT -5
Have to say that I think Wheeler and Bradley have roughly the same value. Bradley is highly undervalued in some peoples eyes because it took him 600 major league AB to figure things outs. Most players struggle when the reach the majors and the Red Sox handled him about as poorly as any team could have. Looking at Bradley's minor league numbers as I've now said for almost 2 years he should be a .250 to .260 hitter with close to a .350 obp at worst. Now he seems to be a very streaky player, but he could also be a much better hitter then I am given him credit for. So I don't think he's an all D guy where his bat hurts you, at worst it's a wash, more likely it helps the team. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he had a few season as one of the better hitting CF's in the game. What could really hurt his value is Betts playing CF long term and Bradley's bat being compared to corner OF bats.
|
|
|
Post by jiant2520 on Nov 19, 2015 18:17:21 GMT -5
I love Bradley, but I'm not sold that he has figured it out at the plate... yet. This coming year should tell a lot.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
|
Post by nomar on Nov 19, 2015 18:22:35 GMT -5
No he almost went for one of the best all around players in baseball then was pulled back when they felt he was banged up. That's not even true. Gomez was hurt all year long. You have no clue why the trade didn't go through. If you think the two are really that far off in trade value I don't know what to tell you, because they aren't...
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
|
Post by jimoh on Nov 19, 2015 19:52:14 GMT -5
But we know simple defensive metrics don't accurately capture basic performance. JBJ is in another Rheem in his ability to take away hits. I also wonder what his placement on defense does to opposing hitters? Do they adjust their swing based on where JBJ is playing. In other words, do slap hitters try to jack it over him because he's taking their sweet spot away, and alternatively, do power hitters level out and hit line drives because JBJ will track down gap and warning track struck balls. [...] I don't think there is even any anecdotal evidence that anyone in the major leagues has ever tried to do this, or could. Right?
|
|
|
Post by xanderdu on Nov 19, 2015 20:47:25 GMT -5
But we know simple defensive metrics don't accurately capture basic performance. JBJ is in another Rheem in his ability to take away hits. I also wonder what his placement on defense does to opposing hitters? Do they adjust their swing based on where JBJ is playing. In other words, do slap hitters try to jack it over him because he's taking their sweet spot away, and alternatively, do power hitters level out and hit line drives because JBJ will track down gap and warning track struck balls. [...] I don't think there is even any anecdotal evidence that anyone in the major leagues has ever tried to do this, or could. Right? I have nothing! I think the new hit tracker tool may be capable of providing greater insight. They tease us by releasing exceptional catches, and JBJ was featured prominently in those snippets. By tracking break time, the fielders line to the ball, the distance to the catch, are a great start to understanding the value I'm seeking. On one of the catches, his break time was measured at minus 0.23 seconds, meaning he broke nearly a quarter second before the ball was struck. His route efficiency was 98% to the perfect line. I'm thinking it was the catch versus the Yankees with him in LF, when he tracked one down the line. Sure wish they'd make those tools available to the public.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Nov 19, 2015 20:56:22 GMT -5
What is the value of a hit stolen seemingly every 2nd game? I ask because that value never seems to find a place in the JBJ calculus. Is it a 1 stolen hit equals 1 offensive hit of equal value? I don't know, and I'm hoping smarter heads than my own can clue me in. Just seems to me this is a value that places JBJ that much higher on the overall value scale; obviously not enough to overcome his 2014 offensive woes, but one that should make his 2016 that much more valuable, even if he just matches the 2015 numbers. According to fWAR he has been worth 21.4 runs defensively in 1862inning. That works out to saving a run more often than every 10 games. Or single handedly dropping team era 0.10. And this didn't even account for the intangibles.
|
|
|
Post by xanderdu on Nov 19, 2015 21:46:36 GMT -5
What is the value of a hit stolen seemingly every 2nd game? I ask because that value never seems to find a place in the JBJ calculus. Is it a 1 stolen hit equals 1 offensive hit of equal value? I don't know, and I'm hoping smarter heads than my own can clue me in. Just seems to me this is a value that places JBJ that much higher on the overall value scale; obviously not enough to overcome his 2014 offensive woes, but one that should make his 2016 that much more valuable, even if he just matches the 2015 numbers. According to fWAR he has been worth 21.4 runs defensively in 1862inning. That works out to saving a run more often than every 10 games. Or single handedly dropping team era 0.10. And this didn't even account for the intangibles. Converting that fWAR value to runs per game, and its ERA impact is getting closer to what I'm seeking. Thank you.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Nov 20, 2015 7:15:05 GMT -5
Value's range heavily depending on system, other players in system, I agree completely, even though I don't know why you are talking about football in this part of the forum.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 20, 2015 9:44:50 GMT -5
I love Bradley, but I'm not sold that he has figured it out at the plate... yet. This coming year should tell a lot. I mentioned this on another post.....I think we need to sell high on him....I would trade him for Giles who is under team control till 2020....The bullpen is such a weapon. We don't know if Koji is going to continue to succeed at his age. Looking @ the WS this year, the games were over in the 6th inning if they had a lead. This forces the opposing managers' to make decisions in the middle innings he normally wouldn't make. JBJ is an elite defender, his bat should be ok, but what he goes back to hitting his weight? Someone like Giles is more of a sure thing. Chris Young/Gerardo Parra platoon for LF + Giles > JBJ & no Giles.
|
|
|