SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox acquire Craig Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra +
|
Post by brockholtsuperstar on Nov 13, 2015 19:57:22 GMT -5
I don't feel good
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Nov 13, 2015 19:57:33 GMT -5
Tells me that DD has a bead on getting his starting pitcher in the FA market. Say goodbye to the #12 draft pick.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 13, 2015 19:57:30 GMT -5
Hurts at first glance but 100% improves the team without touching its top young prospects. I mean, couldn't we have at least gotten Chapman if we were gonna do this? Kimbrel is a better get than Chapman, we have him under control for 3 more seasons: 2016 - $11M 2017 - $13M 2018 - $13M
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Nov 13, 2015 19:57:51 GMT -5
Hurts at first glance but 100% improves the team without touching its top young prospects. Huh?
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 13, 2015 19:58:32 GMT -5
About to post this transaction on SoxProspects. Going to hurt clicking the "publish" button.
|
|
ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
|
Post by ianrs on Nov 13, 2015 19:58:47 GMT -5
This is actually the Andrew Bailey deal, except 100 times worse. This is an absolute embarrassment and just destroyed any faith I had in Dombrowski. Its over. Just a horrific, panic move. Padres didn't even take any money! Couldn't even get Cashner or something. I think the most embarrassing part is somehow Margot and Guerra not being enough and Preller asking to throw in Asuaje and Allen too. Just terrible, terrible, terrible. I am actually sick to my stomach and do not want to believe this.
|
|
|
Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 13, 2015 20:00:55 GMT -5
Hurts at first glance but 100% improves the team without touching its top young prospects. Huh? Dave didn't trade Moncada, Espinosa, Devers, AB, or any of our young MLB players.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Nov 13, 2015 20:01:55 GMT -5
Tells me that DD has a bead on getting his starting pitcher in the FA market. Say goodbye to the #12 draft pick. Not if it's Price, which I think is most likely. I think ownership has said enough and is willing to bite the bullet
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Nov 13, 2015 20:02:56 GMT -5
Tells me that DD has a bead on getting his starting pitcher in the FA market. Say goodbye to the #12 draft pick. Agreed on the first part, but Price and Cueto are possible enough to not say goodbye yet.
|
|
|
Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Nov 13, 2015 20:03:53 GMT -5
Dave didn't trade Moncada, Espinosa, Devers, AB, or any of our young MLB players. Sure he didn't do that but if there is another trade where is the talent coming from? It is going to be one of those guys. Unless this was the big trade and he goes signs David Price, O'Day and calls it a day it doesn't seem like a great use of resources. I figured Margot and Guerra would be gone I just thought it would be at least a starter coming back.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2015 20:04:35 GMT -5
Either that source is wrong, or that's an unbelievably bad deal.
Kimbrel's bWAR: 2.4, 3.3, 3.3, 2.5, 1.3.
Figure they've acquired 2.5 x 3 = 7.5 WAR of value. It would be 6 fWAR, and we know that fWAR undervalues elite relievers by as much as 1.7 WAR per year, yielding a max of 11, so I'm comfortable boosting the 7.5 to 9.
We're paying for about 4.5 WAR of value, so he has about 4 to 5 WAR of excess value.
So you lose the deal if either Margot or Guerra has any kind of adequate MLB career.
I might trade Guerra even-up for Kimbrel. Geeze.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2015 20:04:36 GMT -5
Posters were saying they could live with trading Owens and JBJ for a cost controlled Chapman. This is a cost controlled Kimbrel for less than that. I would have liked to have seen those players used differently, myself. Margot could conceivably get the team that younger pitcher who's yet to break out, but those aren't easy to identify.
The guy probably has more up his sleeve when it comes to acquisitions and trades. It's going to be a ride, and not one without bumps.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 13, 2015 20:04:24 GMT -5
About to post this transaction on SoxProspects. Going to hurt clicking the "publish" button. The SP Server hates the move too.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
|
Post by jimoh on Nov 13, 2015 20:05:21 GMT -5
The way that this could make sense is if they just don't care if they blow past the tax threshold for a few years, so you don't mind paying Kimbrel, you'll get a starter for just $, and you don't losing possible low-cost major leaguers for 2-4 years from now.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 20:06:24 GMT -5
Well, it turns out the dombrowski skeptics have been proven correct - absurd price to pay for a reliever (coming off his worst season no less)
|
|
|
Post by bigpupp on Nov 13, 2015 20:06:09 GMT -5
Either that source is wrong, or that's an unbelievably bad deal. Kimbrel's bWAR: 2.4, 3.3, 3.3, 2.5, 1.3. Figure they've acquired 2.5 x 3 = 7.5 WAR of value. It would be 6 fWAR, and we know that fWAR undervalues elite relievers by as much as 1.7 WAR per year, yielding a max of 11, so I'm comfortable boosting the 7.5 to 9. We're paying for about 4.5 WAR of value, so he has about 4 to 5 WAR of excess value. So you lose the deal if either Margot or Guerra has any kind of adequate MLB career. I might trade Guerra even-up for Kimbrel. Geeze. The source is the Red Sox. They have already announced the deal.
|
|
|
Post by Jonathan Singer on Nov 13, 2015 20:06:42 GMT -5
Bad value trade. While we needed arms in the pen trading 4 prospects for a closer is insane. I could live giving up Margot if it was with another prospect only like Guerra or Asuaje alone but trading those 4 is not good business.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 20:06:56 GMT -5
Ian, chill dude. I have always known that DD would trade young kids in the minors without a thought. He did that in Detroit so it won't be different. But let's look at this like this, over simplified. They just traded a AA outfielder who's a very good but not great prospect, a LOw A short stop who's a B prospect, a Low A starter who's a B-/C prospect and we really aren't worried about Asuaje are we?
They got a controllable reliever who's arguably the top closer in the game and has been. Kimbrel may have slipped slightly from his first couple years that were all tile great years but he's still phenomenal.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
|
Post by jimoh on Nov 13, 2015 20:08:30 GMT -5
5 hits and 13k per nine.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 13, 2015 20:08:40 GMT -5
What are we even supposed to do now in terms of trading for a young ace? Is he gonna look to sign a top FA now? Or are we gonna have to prepare to lose our absolute top prospects? This sucks.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 20:10:39 GMT -5
Either that source is wrong, or that's an unbelievably bad deal. Kimbrel's bWAR: 2.4, 3.3, 3.3, 2.5, 1.3. Figure they've acquired 2.5 x 3 = 7.5 WAR of value. It would be 6 fWAR, and we know that fWAR undervalues elite relievers by as much as 1.7 WAR per year, yielding a max of 11, so I'm comfortable boosting the 7.5 to 9. We're paying for about 4.5 WAR of value, so he has about 4 to 5 WAR of excess value. So you lose the deal if either Margot or Guerra has any kind of adequate MLB career. I might trade Guerra even-up for Kimbrel. Geeze. WAR is a terrible way to rate a reliever it's flawed in my opinion. Chris posted a fangraphs article on it that I think still under values the affect a reliever has on a team. It at least acknowledges that WAR isn't an accurate way to compare a reliever to other players
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 20:11:31 GMT -5
Is this trade real or are we watching the movie (The Town)
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 20:11:32 GMT -5
What are we even supposed to do now in terms of trading for a young ace? Is he gonna look to sign a top FA now? Or are we gonna have to prepare to lose our absolute top prospects? This sucks. Prepare to have the system gutted over the next couple years because this is what he does.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 20:12:34 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 13, 2015 20:12:42 GMT -5
What are we even supposed to do now in terms of trading for a young ace? Is he gonna look to sign a top FA now? Or are we gonna have to prepare to lose our absolute top prospects? This sucks. Prepare to have the system gutted over the next couple years because this is what he does. I was expecting this, but for a starter... not just a reliever. I'm scared.
|
|
|