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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 13, 2015 20:27:52 GMT -5
Kimbrel's contract is pretty much equal to Miller's remaining contract - they could have just signed him This was my thought exactly. They just paid what free agent elite closers were getting last year. The only difference is this year maybe you tack on 1-2 million and add two years. At the end of the day we did get an ELITE closer without giving up our truly elite talent or any of this teams young core.....but still, I hope this isn't a sign of things to come in terms of giving up talent.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 13, 2015 20:27:57 GMT -5
I am definitely shocked at the total value for San Diego. Having a moment to think about it three years of Kimbrel was going to cost. I think my problem is with the addition of Guerra or Allen as an extra piece. If it was Kimbrel for Margot and Allen (Asuaje is minimal loss) it would sting but be the cost of a top closer. Adding Guerra takes this over the top for me. I'd rather it been Guerra, Allen and Asuaje with a reliever added on like Light. Leaving Margot out all together. This also tells me the price of Chapman for one year while less was still likely to cost a prospect like Margot leaving DD to move on to a longer term controlled asset.
I also believe DD will go after a high end free agent pitcher and I lean towards Greinke as my preferred target. Give him 5 and 160/165. The other alternative is to trade JBJ and another two pieces for a younger high end arm and instead sign a Gordon or Heyward for the OF.
I expected a bit of a wild off season and its living up to that for better or worse.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 13, 2015 20:27:42 GMT -5
On the bright side, Dombrowski seems to have addressed his building bullpens that meltdown in the playoffs issues. That, at least, doesn't seem like something we'll have to worry about.
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ericmvan
Veteran
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2015 20:27:43 GMT -5
Some starting pitchers who, last year, were roughly as valuable as Kimbrel might be for us, somewhat optimistically:
Tyson Ross J.A. Happ Colin McHugh Scott Kazmir Kyle Gibson Michael Wacha Mike Leake
And that is including a bump for secret elite-reliever value. Excluding that, an and excellent comp is ... Wade Miley. In fact, the difference in value between Miley and Kimbrel over the next three years is entirely whatever reliever value bWAR cannot measure.
The problem with this deal is not that they traded Margot and Guerra to get an elite player. The problem is that elite closers are just not worth what elite position players and starting pitchers are. As others have noted, it's the Cherington trade strategy mistake, written in ALL CAPS.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 20:29:17 GMT -5
Can you imagine what they want for Sale or Gray? See you later top ten. The scarier thought is what DD would be willing to give up for them.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 13, 2015 20:29:19 GMT -5
Ian, chill dude. I have always known that DD would trade young kids in the minors without a thought. He did that in Detroit so it won't be different. But let's look at this like this, over simplified. They just traded a AA outfielder who's a very good but not great prospect, a LOw A short stop who's a B prospect, a Low A starter who's a B-/C prospect and we really aren't worried about Asuaje are we? They got a controllable reliever who's arguably the top closer in the game and has been. Kimbrel may have slipped slightly from his first couple years that were all tile great years but he's still phenomenal. I think this is a fair observation. Margot was expendible in a system with Betts, JBJ, Castillo and Benintendi and he needed to be added to the 40-man this year to start his clock. Guerra and Allen were both sell-high candidates, and Asuaje was a throw-in. The hope would have been to save Margot and Guerra for two separate deals, but such was not to be. Again, this tells me that the SP will come from the FA ranks. I'd also guess that Benintendi will be pushed quickly.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 20:29:51 GMT -5
I feel bad for the front office guys. I bet a lot of them are rethinking their decision to stay. That's just ridiculous. What do you think the chances of this deal being made with Ben as the GM would've been?
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 20:30:30 GMT -5
In what world is Guerra a major piece to a trade for a top starter? I realize this site has him number six but that is the product of a system that has virtually no real prospects in the upper minors. The single A to AA jump is huge and Guerra has only played in low A. Does anyone remember Derrick Gibson or Angel Beltre. Let's chill on Guerra he was never a major trade chip this offseason low A glove first short stops With limited ceilings don't carry that much weight
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 13, 2015 20:31:19 GMT -5
I don't understand why we need to buy and contend so quickly. Why does no one have any patience?
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Post by larrycook on Nov 13, 2015 20:31:30 GMT -5
I'm guessing it mostly involved making sure DD coffee stayed filled while he was on the phone with Preller. why listen to Hazen, when you have Wren as consigliere? Ha! Ha! Now that is funny! I love that we got Kimbrel. I hate we gave up Allen, but was ok giving up the other 3. In a way his trade could take some innings off of Tawaza next season.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Nov 13, 2015 20:31:37 GMT -5
At that price, if DD trades for a good starter, our farm team might look more like the Angels system than our own.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 13, 2015 20:31:54 GMT -5
I'm guessing it mostly involved making sure DD coffee stayed filled while he was on the phone with Preller. why listen to Hazen, when you have Wren as consigliere? Well Wren was in Atlanta at the same time as Kimbrel wasn't he? I can definitely see DD leaning on Wren's thoughts here.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 20:32:19 GMT -5
In what world is Guerra a major piece to a trade for a top starter? I realize this site has him number six but that is the product of a system that has virtually no real prospects in the upper minors. The single A to AA jump is huge and Guerra has only played in low A. Does anyone remember Derrick Gibson or Angel Beltre. Let's chill on Guerra he was never a major trade chip this offseason low A glove first short stops With limited ceilings don't carry that much weight Right. And he was the only prospect we gave away in this deal, right? Oh, wait...
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 13, 2015 20:32:32 GMT -5
Kimbrel's contract is pretty much equal to Miller's remaining contract - they could have just signed him ...not helping.
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Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 20:33:14 GMT -5
Isn't Guerra projected as a preseason top 100 prospect?
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 20:33:41 GMT -5
Forget Wren, I'm starting to think Amaro might have been involved on this one.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Nov 13, 2015 20:33:58 GMT -5
This was a horrendous deal. Logan Allen shouldn't have just been a throw-in either. He got paid like a 2nd round pick and performed very well in our system thus far. Guerra, Asauje, and something else fungible, fine. Like others said, we could've just signed Robertson or Miller last off-season and been left with a similar result.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 13, 2015 20:34:06 GMT -5
After a trade like this, we better keep that #12 pick in this years draft. We need it to restock the farm.
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sdl
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Post by sdl on Nov 13, 2015 20:34:54 GMT -5
Bad value trade. While we needed arms in the pen trading 4 prospects for a closer is insane. I could live giving up Margot if it was with another prospect only like Guerra or Asuaje alone but trading those 4 is not good business. Sounds like a deal another former Expo GM who later became a Sox GM would make...Dan Duquette.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2015 20:36:50 GMT -5
Isn't Guerra projected as a preseason top 100 prospect? Seriously, can we please stop with this "We're overrating our own guys!" bullshit. There are literally five million prospect rankers on the internet today and none of them are beholden to Red Sox for any reason. We know how guys are rated by objective sources and what value they have (roughly). Come up with a better argument or leave the thread.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 13, 2015 20:37:15 GMT -5
I don't understand why we need to buy and contend so quickly. Why does no one have any patience? Because you don't live in John Henry's world. He transfers millions from third world peasants into his own bank account in virtually no time on a regular basis. He has no comprehension of the time it takes to actually build something as opposed to making millions through arbitrage. And now that Larry Lucchino is no longer there to explain it to him . . .
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Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 20:38:05 GMT -5
The thing is, it's all predictable (and predicted). The blame rests with Henry, and I'd love to know what he's thinking now (and whether he was even asked for his input)
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 13, 2015 20:39:43 GMT -5
So how many deep is the line of you jumping off the Tobin right now? Take a number and stand in line long? Or lemmings off a cliff quick?
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Post by thursty on Nov 13, 2015 20:40:22 GMT -5
Isn't Guerra projected as a preseason top 100 prospect? Seriously, can we please stop with this "We're overrating our own guys!" bullshit. There are literally five million prospect rankers on the internet today and none of them are beholden to Red Sox for any reason. We know how guys are rated by objective sources and what value they have (roughly). Come up with a better argument or leave the thread. What? I'm assuming that's not directed at me.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 13, 2015 20:42:15 GMT -5
I actually moved right near Fenway and would love to see the team become good again while im living there but to ruin our entire system because if impatience is so stupid.
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