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Evaluating Ben Cherington
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Post by larrycook on Dec 14, 2012 13:38:26 GMT -5
It's true that fewer elite players are reaching free agent when they're still at their peak, but those opportunities will still exist and the Red Sox want to position themselves to take advantage when they arise (for instance, So in two years when Dempster, Ghomes, Ortiz and others contracts come off the books our choices for the front office are to continue to overpay for mid level talent or hope and pray some of the youngsters have developed to the point where they can step into the lineup. I think in the future the front office would be willing to go big with a long term contract, but it has to be an ideal situation. Our advantage over other teams drooling over these type players is that we will have more financial flexibility to get that deal done than the other guys.
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Post by soxcentral on Dec 14, 2012 13:46:21 GMT -5
It's true that fewer elite players are reaching free agent when they're still at their peak, but those opportunities will still exist and the Red Sox want to position themselves to take advantage when they arise (for instance, So in two years when Dempster, Ghomes, Ortiz and others contracts come off the books our choices for the front office are to continue to overpay for mid level talent or hope and pray some of the youngsters have developed to the point where they can step into the lineup. I think in the future the front office would be willing to go big with a long term contract, but it has to be an ideal situation. Our advantage over other teams drooling over these type players is that we will have more financial flexibility to get that deal done than the other guys. I'm not sure that point is entirely fair. Right now we have a greater than normal amount of uncertainty regarding our younger players that COULD make an impact. WMB Lavarnway Iglesias Xander Rubby Webster Barnes JBJ That group could represent 1/2 of your everyday lineup and 2/5 of your rotation in 2 years, or it could be a failed crop that requires an elite talent infusion. Current decisions are being made in the context of where the organization is today, and I think they have at least shown they are willing to change direction philosophically over the years as conditions warrant.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 14, 2012 13:47:21 GMT -5
Just want to highlight a point jmei made that isn't mentioned enough: payroll flexibility is for current players, too. Maybe Lester puts it back together and/or Ellsbury puts together another monster season, plus the Sox have to do something about Pedroia after 2014 ... all of these guys could command large contracts in the next 2 offseasons.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 14, 2012 14:43:55 GMT -5
If he doesn't sign Dariel Alvarez I'm gonna go back to the "BC is puppet" camp.
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Post by jdb on Sept 12, 2013 9:35:43 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 9:37:59 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 12, 2013 10:12:50 GMT -5
Great stuff. Keri is one of the better baseball analysts. His take on this version of the Red Sox is right on, with a detailed look at each of the acquisitions. While it's true that just about everything had to work out this year for the team to be where they are, the new guys are a big part of it.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 12, 2013 11:13:32 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 12, 2013 11:49:36 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold. That's the thing about the Internet: institutionalized memory. SoxProspects never forgets. Words and thoughts immortalized forever. Add: I know most around here questioned the offseason and I for one never saw this coming. I was in the boat that thought we weren't nearly as bad as the 2012 record but 95+ wins? No way.... Don't feel like the Lone Ranger. I was an "optimist", with a projection of 85 wins, give or take a few. As I've written before, all their bad luck seems to have regressed to good luck. Ellsbury has returned somewhat to form, Ortiz is having another bang-up year, Pedroia is Pedroia, Saltalamacchia continues to advance. Iglesias early, Middlebrooks late, Nava, the acquisitions - every roll of the dice has come up seven, it seems. So it could have been very different, and we need to acknowledge that. With all that said, the front office is deserving of all the credit it will get. If any of us would have dared to guess 95+ wins this year, we would have been laughed off the board.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 12, 2013 11:52:57 GMT -5
Might be one of the finest pieces written regarding the Sox this season.
Remember when the dust was settled was happy with all, except for Gomes, who STILL remembered his 0-20 streak with the Rays way back with 17K's and figured would not help much to replace Cody Ross and am glad Gomes has been a good 4th OF/PH and the worst sign? Dempster who have always seen as a NL only pitcher, who like Kyle Lohse belongs in the NL and never should have been signed by any AL team.
Overall, with so many people brought in and how many have produced.. As bad as Cherrington drafted in 2012? It was a surprise he did so well over the season and hoping learned a lesson. Both over the winter and with that 1 miserable draft.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 12, 2013 11:56:34 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold. I looked to see if I had any crazy comments. Thankfully, I stayed out of this one. Mainly, because I always felt Valentine was a Lucchino hire not BC.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 12, 2013 12:29:17 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold. I looked to see if I had any crazy comments. Thankfully, I stayed out of this one. Mainly, because I always felt Valentine was a Lucchino hire not BC. And to this day I still think that Valentine was a strategic hire to get rid of the dead weight that was clogging the system and stopping us from coming a playoff contender all along. History may show that this was the truth weather we believe it or not! Here Here, Long Live the Valentine Strategy
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 12:39:54 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold. One of my guilty pleasures is re-reading old posts and seeing bad-to-terrible predictions and declarations. This is a particularly good one.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2013 12:44:04 GMT -5
I thought the Sox would be terrible. I hated the idea of free agent shopping from the middle tier. I prefer to see elite free agents signed or fish out of the bargain bin.
I feel if a player is average or just above average to begin with signing him to a free agent deal in his 30s is a good way to capture his decline years while overpaying for them.
It's been such a strange year that almost everything worked out as well as could be imagined.
I thought the Sox would win between 75 - 85 games, but really I was thinking 75.
I hated the Victorino signing the most. I figured the Sox were getting a declining player who lacked power to be a corner OF. And I figured they got to pay $39 million for priviledge of signing said player.
Instead Victorino has hit very well, has showed decent power, still runs the bases well, and has played the most amazing RF defense since a young Dwight Evans - he's been THAT good out there. Don't know about his next couple of seasons - I can see where injuries can take their toll on him, but for 2013 he's actually been a bargain. Never thought that would happen.
I liked the Napoli signing although I was worried about him declining. But with the way the contract got restructured, it's win-win for the Sox.
I was ok with Drew and alright with Dempster. Wasn't expecting anything great, although Drew has played better than I thought he would, particularly on defense. Dempster is what I thought he'd be. A body who's better than the typical replacement level pitcher.
Didn't care for the Gomes signing. Didn't see the need to pay a platoon DH 10 million and give him 2 years. Of course, now I see a guy I want up in clutch situations no matter which arm the pitcher throws with, and I actually think he's a pretty good Fenway LF. And spiritually I think he is the Kevin Millar of this team. I know the "this guy is a winner" thing is bunk, but I'm not convinced that it's a total accident that his teams happen to gel and happen to win. He strikes me as somebody who unites the team, and could one day in the future find himself in the manager's seat.
I did like the Koji signing a lot, but I had no idea he'd be THIS amazing.
During the winter I was cool with moving Lester for Wil Myers and I was even OK with dealing Ellsbury for Trevor Bauer (good thing that didn't happen). Those moves would have been consistent with a 75 win team.
I had hoped the Sox would get Hamilton on a 3 year deal. Once it got to 5, I felt the Angels could have him. Thankfully a 3 year deal was never on the table and Cherington knew better. When you agree with Nick Cafardo, then you KNOW you must be wrong.
I did like the Carp signing. When he was released I hoped the Sox would be all over him and Ben came thru.
I think Cherington has been great. I think the one regretful move was the Hanrahan deal. I was alright with it because I figured they had plenty of RH relief depth that they could afford to deal Melancon, but I felt it was quite possible that he'd be better than Hanrahan in 2013, and sure enough as it turned out Melancon is the one guy that the Sox could truly use for the pen. Imagine Melancon setting up Uehara.
Of course the other big Ben move was the Iglesias/Peavy, etc deal. I think the Sox will ultimately miss Iglesias's glove and I do think he'll hit well enough to be a regular shortstop, but I do like Peavy and I think the Sox did well to get him.
And I really like the shape the farm system is in.
So there, I'm not afraid to admit it - I was WRONG on a lot of stuff, and very happily so. I still am not a big fan of free agent shopping for middle tier free agents, but Ben made sure that 1) these deals weren't long-termed deals, and 2) that they didn't have to lose any draft picks as compensation.
And I applaud Ben for having his vision work and restore the Sox back to prominence and away from the runaway circus they had become.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 12, 2013 13:22:54 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold. One of my guilty pleasures is re-reading old posts and seeing bad-to-terrible predictions and declarations. This is a particularly good one. Think you just stuck a dagger into a few was hoping would be avoided.. You trying to get this good topic moved to the throwback section now
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 13:25:09 GMT -5
I still am not a big fan of free agent shopping for middle tier free agents, but Ben made sure that 1) these deals weren't long-termed deals, and 2) that they didn't have to lose any draft picks as compensation. Why do you think that? I actually think this is the one segment of the free-agent market where a smart team can grab a lot of surplus value, especially for a team like the Red Sox that combines (a) deep pockets and (b) a deep farm system with lots of potential replacements. Every year there are mid-tier free agents coming off mediocre-to-bad contract years that end up bouncing back with authority-- guys like Victorino or Drew for the Red Sox, or Russell Martin, James Loney, Brandon McCarthy, and Fracisco Liriano. Sometimes those contracts flop (just off the top of my head: Dan Haren, Lance Berkman, Kevin Youkilis), but if they do so for the Red Sox, the deep farm system can usually offer up an above-replacement-level backup and the contract will be for short years and non-crippling AAVs. As an aside, some free agents in that buy-low category this offseason I'd look at include: C: Carlos Ruiz, Kurt Suzuki 1B: Mike Morse, Corey Hart UTIL: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes, Alex Gonzalez OF: Nelson Cruz, Curtis Granderson, David Murphy
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 12, 2013 13:29:01 GMT -5
Also the first couple of pages of this thread are gold. So in his first off-season Cherrington did not make the team better than they were the year before (which in pro sports means you got worse). 2/3s of the way through that season he makes "The Deal" jettisoning huge amounts of salary. More is eliminated with the departure of DiceK and a few other sagging contracts. Second off-season the team is not "finished" yet but payroll is already back up near $140M yet the team looks like it will finish between 4th and 5th in the AL East. This is competence? Any of us perform like this in our jobs we get fired (unless we work for the federal government; then we're promoted to cabinet secretaries). Unfortunately, Ben Cherrington doesn't operate in your fantasy world where a team can realistically get 25 wins better in a single offseason. He's improved the roster, he's kept the financial commitments to a minimum (yeah, 140m next year, but next year isn't what matters-- long term, the team still has plenty of financial flexibility), and he's protected both the farm system as well as next year's draft picks. In other words he's building for the long haul, not some kamikaze run in 2013. I'd say that's almost the definition of competency.
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Post by jdb on Sept 12, 2013 13:32:49 GMT -5
Overall, with so many people brought in and how many have produced.. As bad as Cherrington drafted in 2012? It was a surprise he did so well over the season and hoping learned a lesson. Both over the winter and with that 1 miserable draft. Still early to judge that draft. Marrero's D alone could make him a starter, Johnson pitched pretty well after his injury (limited upside though) and Callahan and Buttrey are good arms at the lower levels. We might not have a first division starter there but could have several trade chips and two guys with higher floors in Marrero and Johnson.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 12, 2013 13:38:21 GMT -5
Also, it would be excessively cruel to quote the people who wanted to sign Josh Hamilton. But you know who you are.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 12, 2013 13:54:12 GMT -5
I'm happy to say that I was very supportive with the offseason signings when they happened, and I thought Cherington had put together one of the top offenses in the AL. I definitely wouldn't have predicted 95+ wins though, and I think I went with something like 89 wins.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 12, 2013 14:06:53 GMT -5
We may need a new definition of middle tier. Aside from whatever defensive value he may have, Napoli is third, by both wins and OPS, in the AL list at first-base. He's given the team good value and, along with Carp, gives them one of the better left-right combos in MLB.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 12, 2013 14:14:46 GMT -5
I'll go with both Buttrey and Callahan. It was the 1st 3 picks and especially both Marrero and Johnson that were terrible. Marrero, at 24th overall being one of the higher picks they gad had in years and giving him 250k over slot to boot. Don't buy the "he was ranked higher" either. People drop all the time, Denney this year just 1 example.
Johnson nearly as bad and Light? 1 pitch pitcher. The team would have been better off just drafting high upside high schoolers in the 1st 5 rounds and trying to sign them. It was a painful draft to watch and was like amateur hour unfolding.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 12, 2013 14:54:51 GMT -5
Also, it would be excessively cruel to quote the people who wanted to sign Josh Hamilton. But you know who you are. Yeah, but I called him a fruit loop. Ha! I did stick up for Victorino. I'm going to push for Ruiz if we don't keep Salty or sign McCann. That Philly team was a heckuva team. 5 straight div. titles and made it two series. And, they weren't even their two best teams. Somehow they lost to SF in 2010 and St. L in 2011. All you heard about was their starting pitching Utley and Howard. They had position players who just ground out games like Shane. Ruiz was like that. Their pitchers loved throwing to him and he didn't coddle them either. If they weren't into the game, he let them hear it.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Sept 12, 2013 15:22:52 GMT -5
I'll go with both Buttrey and Callahan. It was the 1st 3 picks and especially both Marrero and Johnson that were terrible. Marrero, at 24th overall being one of the higher picks they gad had in years and giving him 250k over slot to boot. Don't buy the "he was ranked higher" either. People drop all the time, Denney this year just 1 example. Johnson nearly as bad and Light? 1 pitch pitcher. The team would have been better off just drafting high upside high schoolers in the 1st 5 rounds and trying to sign them. It was a painful draft to watch and was like amateur hour unfolding. This has been debated to death but I suppose I’ll give it one last try: Look at the guys who were drafted around Marrero and Johnson. How many of them look like actual prospects? Not many. That draft class was really weak, Marrero and Johnson are actually doing better than a great many of the guys selected around the same time. High ceiling high school players with actual skills typically don’t last until the end of the first round. High ceiling high school students with limited skills miss the vast majority of the time. I recall the only guy who got was on the board that I was actually excited about was Joey Gallo. Gallo is one amazingly fun prospect to follow, but I’m not sure we missed on a major league starting position player on him, either.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2013 16:40:47 GMT -5
I still am not a big fan of free agent shopping for middle tier free agents, but Ben made sure that 1) these deals weren't long-termed deals, and 2) that they didn't have to lose any draft picks as compensation. Why do you think that? I actually think this is the one segment of the free-agent market where a smart team can grab a lot of surplus value, especially for a team like the Red Sox that combines (a) deep pockets and (b) a deep farm system with lots of potential replacements. Every year there are mid-tier free agents coming off mediocre-to-bad contract years that end up bouncing back with authority-- guys like Victorino or Drew for the Red Sox, or Russell Martin, James Loney, Brandon McCarthy, and Fracisco Liriano. Sometimes those contracts flop (just off the top of my head: Dan Haren, Lance Berkman, Kevin Youkilis), but if they do so for the Red Sox, the deep farm system can usually offer up an above-replacement-level backup and the contract will be for short years and non-crippling AAVs. As an aside, some free agents in that buy-low category this offseason I'd look at include: C: Carlos Ruiz, Kurt Suzuki 1B: Mike Morse, Corey Hart UTIL: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes, Alex Gonzalez OF: Nelson Cruz, Curtis Granderson, David Murphy I should rephrase it my feelings about middle tier free agents. I don't like seeing multi-year deals on middle tier free agents. My feeling is that most of these guys are in their 30s, on the decline, and you can probably get somebody off the bargain bin for cheaper who can do almost as effective a job for far less money thus putting a team in a position to have money saved for when a rare elite talent does become available. In retrospect what was useful about these deals for the Sox is that these players replaced black holes on the roster so even if they were average their value over replacement players was significant . Basically put another way the Red Sox took their black holes and turned them into average players without overly tying up their future budget and without losing draft picks (something normally associated with free agency). The gain from terrible to average was huge and put the team in a position where they weren't really weak at any position, and since there were no elite free agents in the market, the Sox didn't miss out on anybody. I mistakenly thought Hamilton was elite. Guess I got fired from my fantasy GM job. At least I wouldn't have given him a 5 year deal.
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