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Evaluating Ben Cherington
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 12, 2013 17:32:44 GMT -5
Right on was that draft debated hard and often, probably more than any since Henry took over the team and I was on that draft from the 1st pick on a couple of sites. Intially not as hard on Light, as hoped the team would have him pitching relief (like the M's did with Carter Capps) and Light can get away with a mid-upper 90's FB and iffy (at best) slider. It has worked out well for Capps, at the MLB level for over a season after less than a year in the minors with the same 2 pitches. Boston just does not like to do that.. Forcing these guys to try to start with iffy secondary pitches sometimes.
Ok, that was my knock there, but I do think if they abandon the Light as a starter real fast he could be another Carter Capps type setup guy.
My thoughts on taking Johnson were the same as always on picking college lefties who don't throw hard.. Total waste.. Like Tudor, Ojeda.. They will never do anything at Fenway and be given away for nothing in the slim chance they make it and no mistake here, IMO Johnson isn't even in the same essay as those 2, more of the Hernandez type who will be a AAAA type at best. Would have been better off taking a high upside HS kid who has a live fastball with control problems than a control pitcher with no fastball.
Marrero? Couldn't hit with wooden bats at AZ state, a NCAA legendary school where everyone wants to play and now the hype is on his defense instead, where before it was on his bat. If *that* doesn't sound scary...
I'll take the HS pitchers anytime please.. 2013 was a grand slam compared to that. 2012 reminds me of something the old ownership of Houston would have pulled off.
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Post by callie on Sept 12, 2013 17:47:01 GMT -5
If you're telling me he just moved all that salary so we can replace those players with Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli assorted pieces of dreck that right now look to make the Sox a 84 win team at best then, yes, I DO question his competency. This team hasn't been to the playoffs since 2009. He's making moves like it won't be back until 2015. Meanwhile, the competition keeps getting better. Unacceptable with the resources and prospects this team has. Agreed, unacceptable. LMAO - How wrong can one person be.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 12, 2013 18:20:51 GMT -5
All the signings look good right now and deals like Drew could net us a pick next June and mid season deals like Peavy help us in 2014 as well. Got to give him an A+ looking back and we still have the flexibility going forward. Seems more like an A- to me: - Dempster has not been worth the money we are paying him. - Melancon for Hanrahan obviously didn't work out. - Iglesias for Peavy may end up looking like a pretty bad deal in 2 or 3 years, we'll have to wait and see. - Thornton sucks. These are only small blemishes but I have high standards for an A+.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 18:51:49 GMT -5
Yeah, the Melancon deal alone was bad enough (and I said so at the time) that it's tough to say he's been perfect. Let's hope Cherington has learned his lesson in terms of trading for "established closers."
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 12, 2013 19:18:40 GMT -5
Really hard to find, or acquire a closer and every team/GM seems to have to learn that. Just over the last 10 years how many "chumps" has Boston gone through? Foulke, Gagne, Bailey. Think Hanrahan would have been oh, if he hadn't of continued pitching after he had blown his arm out. He did ok until Doumit (spelling) think it was for the Twins hit that bomb and then it was over. Might have remembered the hitter/team wrong where he seemed to get hurt, but he was never the same after it.
I'd like for the team to get him back on some kind of deal as a setup guy even to Uehara and DFA Bailey, who is always hurt and won't even start throwing until, mid 2014.
Why would like for the team, when they draft the college JR's, even some JC guys who throw mid 90's and have 1 iffy 2nd pitch to immediately start there pro career as relievers. It makes perfect sense. Pat Light is and example. I think Myles Smith is another, even had the privilege of watching one his starts, though the kid is fairly young? He almost exclusively threw his FB over 3IP in the GCL PO game I witnessed anyway.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 19:28:23 GMT -5
The latest Speier podcast discusses a few reasons they start most guys that might end up as relievers in the rotation. Putting guys in the rotation challenges them to work on that second or third pitch, makes them face more hitters with men on base, and allows them to work a higher volume of innings. EDIT: I know I've been talking it up a lot lately, but it really is a very good podcast for any prospect follower.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Sept 13, 2013 12:16:48 GMT -5
Right on was that draft debated hard and often, probably more than any since Henry took over the team and I was on that draft from the 1st pick on a couple of sites. Intially not as hard on Light, as hoped the team would have him pitching relief (like the M's did with Carter Capps) and Light can get away with a mid-upper 90's FB and iffy (at best) slider. It has worked out well for Capps, at the MLB level for over a season after less than a year in the minors with the same 2 pitches. Boston just does not like to do that.. Forcing these guys to try to start with iffy secondary pitches sometimes. Ok, that was my knock there, but I do think if they abandon the Light as a starter real fast he could be another Carter Capps type setup guy. My thoughts on taking Johnson were the same as always on picking college lefties who don't throw hard.. Total waste.. Like Tudor, Ojeda.. They will never do anything at Fenway and be given away for nothing in the slim chance they make it and no mistake here, IMO Johnson isn't even in the same essay as those 2, more of the Hernandez type who will be a AAAA type at best. Would have been better off taking a high upside HS kid who has a live fastball with control problems than a control pitcher with no fastball. Marrero? Couldn't hit with wooden bats at AZ state, a NCAA legendary school where everyone wants to play and now the hype is on his defense instead, where before it was on his bat. If *that* doesn't sound scary... I'll take the HS pitchers anytime please.. 2013 was a grand slam compared to that. 2012 reminds me of something the old ownership of Houston would have pulled off. What high school pitcher would you have selected? Again, if you look at players that were picked between Marrero and Light, I really don't think you're going to see a ton of misses by the Sox. The draft class was terrible. You really can't say that they should have taken a high school pitcher without providing examples of who was available. Finally, should Johnson make it to AAA, that wouldn't exactly be a poor result for where he was taken in the draft.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 13, 2013 12:19:26 GMT -5
We may need a new definition of middle tier. Aside from whatever defensive value he may have, Napoli is third, by both wins and OPS, in the AL list at first-base. He's given the team good value and, along with Carp, gives them one of the better left-right combos in MLB. But they were mid-level last winter by virtue of the fact that they didn't get offered a QO. As for closers, both Foulke and bailey were successful in the role for a period. In the end, very few guys are consistently dominant (only Rivera really) over multiple years, so it's not so much about "finding" a closer as it is about using your bullpen wisely, and maybe playing psycho therapist to some degree.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Sept 13, 2013 12:27:31 GMT -5
Beating the Brian Johnson thing to death further:
Here are the following players drafted at 31 who have had major league careers since 2000
Aaron Hielman Noah Lowrey JP Howell Brett Jackson
That's it. 2012 was a weak draft class to boot, we couldn't have done better by just randomly selecting high school kids.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 13, 2013 12:46:09 GMT -5
Right on was that draft debated hard and often, probably more than any since Henry took over the team and I was on that draft from the 1st pick on a couple of sites. Intially not as hard on Light, as hoped the team would have him pitching relief (like the M's did with Carter Capps) and Light can get away with a mid-upper 90's FB and iffy (at best) slider. It has worked out well for Capps, at the MLB level for over a season after less than a year in the minors with the same 2 pitches. Boston just does not like to do that.. Forcing these guys to try to start with iffy secondary pitches sometimes. Ok, that was my knock there, but I do think if they abandon the Light as a starter real fast he could be another Carter Capps type setup guy. My thoughts on taking Johnson were the same as always on picking college lefties who don't throw hard.. Total waste.. Like Tudor, Ojeda.. They will never do anything at Fenway and be given away for nothing in the slim chance they make it and no mistake here, IMO Johnson isn't even in the same essay as those 2, more of the Hernandez type who will be a AAAA type at best. Would have been better off taking a high upside HS kid who has a live fastball with control problems than a control pitcher with no fastball. Marrero? Couldn't hit with wooden bats at AZ state, a NCAA legendary school where everyone wants to play and now the hype is on his defense instead, where before it was on his bat. If *that* doesn't sound scary... I'll take the HS pitchers anytime please.. 2013 was a grand slam compared to that. 2012 reminds me of something the old ownership of Houston would have pulled off. What high school pitcher would you have selected? Again, if you look at players that were picked between Marrero and Light, I really don't think you're going to see a ton of misses by the Sox. The draft class was terrible. You really can't say that they should have taken a high school pitcher without providing examples of who was available. Finally, should Johnson make it to AAA, that wouldn't exactly be a poor result for where he was taken in the draft. I was hoping for Zach Eflin....but I agree there weren't many strong choices. Jose Berrios was on the board, but I don't think he was on any of our radars.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Sept 13, 2013 13:10:44 GMT -5
Berrios was a guy who got a lot of buzz, very late. His numbers look great and the scouting reports make me wonder why he wasn't more of a known prospect months before the draft.
I recall reading that he was a guy with a lot of helium in some of the early analysis after the draft. So I don't really fault the FO for not being on him.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 13, 2013 14:17:24 GMT -5
Think JMEI gave us all a hint above to drop this off topic discussion, but this, regarding my not giving examples? Wow.. How many do you want? That draft had many high upside HS pitchers in HS with 2 pitches only. Much like Pat Light, only in HS rather than College JR's as was Light.
Here are some.
Lucas Sims Ty Hensley (was big on myself, went to NY and out all of 2013 with surgery) Nick Travieso (went at #14) Jose Berrios Hunter Virant Alex Wood Matt Smoral
Wasn't hard to find them back then, or now.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 13, 2013 14:41:32 GMT -5
Yeah, the Melancon deal alone was bad enough (and I said so at the time) that it's tough to say he's been perfect. Let's hope Cherington has learned his lesson in terms of trading for "established closers." Ehhh, I don't think it was so much a "trade for established closer" thing as it was an attempt to get roster flexibility, especially after this season. Melancon (4yrs), Stolmy (6yrs, 0 opts.), De Jesus (6yrs, 0opts.) and Sand (6 yrs, ?opts.) for Hanrahan (1 yr.) and Holt (6yrs, 3opts.). There was also the chance that Hanrahan was a mid-season trade candidate if he was doing well and the team wasn't.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Sept 13, 2013 14:53:46 GMT -5
Think JMEI gave us all a hint above to drop this off topic discussion, but this, regarding my not giving examples? Wow.. How many do you want? That draft had many high upside HS pitchers in HS with 2 pitches only. Much like Pat Light, only in HS rather than College JR's as was Light. Here are some. Lucas Sims Ty Hensley (was big on myself, went to NY and out all of 2013 with surgery) Nick Travieso (went at #14) Jose Berrios Hunter Virant Alex Wood- Matt Smoral Wasn't hard to find them back then, or now. Lucas Sims- perfectly reasonable to say we should have drafted Sims Ty Hensley (was big on myself, went to NY and out all of 2013 with surgery) Injured Nick Travieso (went at #14) Was off the board Jose Berrios- discussed earlier, wasn't seen as a first round talent by most publications. Hunter Virant- at UCLA Alex Wood- likey a BP arm due to mechanics. Has worked out really well so far, though.Also not a HS pitcher Matt Smoral- sporting an ERA over 7.00 in rookie ball Short of Sims and maybe Berrios*, I don't know who would have been better, reasonable picks. *Clearly he would have been a great pick, results wise, but at the time of the draft Johnson was seen as the better draft prospect
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2013 15:00:41 GMT -5
Yeah, the Melancon deal alone was bad enough (and I said so at the time) that it's tough to say he's been perfect. Let's hope Cherington has learned his lesson in terms of trading for "established closers." Ehhh, I don't think it was so much a "trade for established closer" thing as it was an attempt to get roster flexibility, especially after this season. Melancon (4yrs), Stolmy (6yrs, 0 opts.), De Jesus (6yrs, 0opts.) and Sand (6 yrs, ?opts.) for Hanrahan (1 yr.) and Holt (6yrs, 3opts.). There was also the chance that Hanrahan was a mid-season trade candidate if he was doing well and the team wasn't. I mean, if they just wanted roster flexibility, I think they could have just offered De Jesus, Sands, and Stolmy for Holt, and Pittsburgh almost certainly have accepted that deal or some variation on it. It was really an evaluation issue-- the front office presumably decided that Melancon didn't have the mental toughness to pitch in Boston and so traded him (and his four cheap years of team control) for a more established reliever (with one expensive year of team control) even though Hanrahan and Melancon had comparable peripherals at the time. And now Melancon is closing for the team with the third-best record in baseball and ranks fourth amongst all relievers with a 1.70 FIP and third with a 2.2 fWAR. It was an awful trade at the time and only looks worse in hindsight. PS: feel free to continue evaluating Cherington's draft history-- that's what this thread is here for.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 13, 2013 16:47:26 GMT -5
The only bad trade BC done was trading away Melacon for Hanrahan. That was boneheaded at the time and the season Melacon is having makes it even worse.
Other than that, terrific GM, much better than Theo had been since the last WS.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 13, 2013 17:47:37 GMT -5
Think JMEI gave us all a hint above to drop this off topic discussion, but this, regarding my not giving examples? Wow.. How many do you want? That draft had many high upside HS pitchers in HS with 2 pitches only. Much like Pat Light, only in HS rather than College JR's as was Light. Here are some. Lucas Sims Ty Hensley (was big on myself, went to NY and out all of 2013 with surgery) Nick Travieso (went at #14) Jose Berrios Hunter Virant Alex Wood- Matt Smoral Wasn't hard to find them back then, or now. Lucas Sims- perfectly reasonable to say we should have drafted Sims Ty Hensley (was big on myself, went to NY and out all of 2013 with surgery) Injured Nick Travieso (went at #14) Was off the board Jose Berrios- discussed earlier, wasn't seen as a first round talent by most publications. Hunter Virant- at UCLA Alex Wood- likey a BP arm due to mechanics. Has worked out really well so far, though.Also not a HS pitcher Matt Smoral- sporting an ERA over 7.00 in rookie ball Short of Sims and maybe Berrios*, I don't know who would have been better, reasonable picks. *Clearly he would have been a great pick, results wise, but at the time of the draft Johnson was seen as the better draft prospect Not trying to get involved in some pi**ing contest here. Was asked for names, provided a few. Was answered back (rightfully on a cpl) they were in college. It's not like there wasn't half dozen more of high upside power arms... Lance McCullers Already BA Top 50 Mitch Brown Shane Watson Nolan Sanburn
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Sept 13, 2013 20:42:06 GMT -5
Lucas Sims- perfectly reasonable to say we should have drafted Sims Ty Hensley (was big on myself, went to NY and out all of 2013 with surgery) Injured Nick Travieso (went at #14) Was off the board Jose Berrios- discussed earlier, wasn't seen as a first round talent by most publications. Hunter Virant- at UCLA Alex Wood- likey a BP arm due to mechanics. Has worked out really well so far, though.Also not a HS pitcher Matt Smoral- sporting an ERA over 7.00 in rookie ball Short of Sims and maybe Berrios*, I don't know who would have been better, reasonable picks. *Clearly he would have been a great pick, results wise, but at the time of the draft Johnson was seen as the better draft prospect Not trying to get involved in some pi**ing contest here. Was asked for names, provided a few. Was answered back (rightfully on a cpl) they were in college. It's not like there wasn't half dozen more of high upside power arms... Lance McCullers Already BA Top 50 Mitch Brown Shane Watson Nolan Sanburn This isn't a pissing contest, this is me pointing out that your expectations regarding draft performance are not aligned with reality. Earlier this thread, you called the 2012 draft "amateur hour." And that Boston should have just drafted a bunch of high school prospects. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having preferred the players mentioned in this thread at draft day, but to behave as if they were clearly the better options just stinks of historical revisionism. It was a bad draft class, Boston got some interesting but not stellar talent out of it. Yes, there were a few high ceiling arms, but so far most of them haven't panned out. The names presented as examples include the following: Ty Hensley- injured- missed all of 2013. Cost 1.2 Million, BA Rank 23. I understand prefering Hensley, he was a good draft prospect, but missing out on him doesn't feel like that big of a deal on 9/13/13. Nick Travieso- Big big arm, posted a FIP of 4.00 in A ball. ERA of 4.63. Oddly not getting K's despite big fastball. He's an interesting arm, but he was ranked below Marrero and just one spot below Johnson at draft time by BA. I can understand preferring him either Marrero or Johnson, but to act like either or was a clearly better option at the time isn't really supported by history or recent performance. Nevermind the fact that he actually was selected before Boston even got a chance to pick. Signing bonus of 2 million. Hunter Virant- did not sign. Ranked below both Marrero and Johnson by BA. Alex Wood- Picked 88th overall, ranked below Johnson and Marrero on draft day by BA. Probably a reliever, has been very successful thus far. Bonus of 700k Matt Smoral- Walked 9.1 batters per 9 in 25 innings rookie ball. Intriguing physical talent, was absolutely a worthwhile gamble- but still a gamble, especially at 2 million. Again, I can understand wanting to have taken Smoral over the guys Boston selected, but it's a load of bull to say that he was head and shoulders a better selection. Lance McCullers- Ranked 13 by BA and has been huge this season. Was a very difficult sign. Good for the Astros, they gambled on McCullers and were able to sign him and he's been fantastic. Still, the price tag and uncertainty of whether or not he would sign probably drove Boston away. Mitch Brown- Talented prep pitcher who in 2013, was pretty lousy. Was ranked below both Johnson and Marrero on draft day by BA. Yet another example of a guy who would have been a perfectly acceptable pick, had the Sox taken him, but not clearly better than those players they actually did. Shane Watson- ranked below Marrero in the BA top 500, above Johnson. Signed at 1.2 million. Had a FIP over 5.00 this year in A ball. Age advanced and obviously, still an interesting arm, but again... not someone who you would say was a significantly better prospect in 2012 or today. Nolan Sanburn- Ranked below Marrero and Johnson in top 500. Had a good 2013 splitting time between rookie ball and A ball. Not a high school pitcher, but 21 years of age. Signed for 710 K. Zach Eflin- Ranked below Marrero and above Johnson in the BA top 500. Had a really good year in A ball, sporting an xfip of 3.40, despite being a year removed from HS. Has had some injury issues in the past and there are questions about whether or not his secondary offerings are good enough to keep him in the rotation, but the Padres have to be thrilled with him so far. Signed below slot. Jose Berrios- Ranked below Marrero and Johnson. Has pitched great since signing. 2012 was a weak year. From that draft Boston got the following in the first 3 rounds: A good defensive SS who profiles as a second division starter or an excellent utility man. A college pitcher who will likely begin next season in high A and probably be in AA by mid-season. and Pat Light. I'm not sure how exactly Johnson and Marrero were far inferior options to those listed in this thread. Obviously, McCullers would have been nice, but he was seen as a difficult sign. Please look back at my post about the 31st overall pick over the past 13 years... the best player from that crop is Noah Lowery...
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2013 21:03:09 GMT -5
I mean, Cherington didn't pull a Belichick and draft someone much higher than the scouting consensus (i.e., BA rankings), but I don't think that's a great way to judge a draft. The real question was whether Cherington picked the right guys in that BA rank range of 30-75, not whether he avoided drafting some guy noone had ever heard of.
Whether or not they were well-rated, the guys he did draft that year were, with the exception of Buttrey, Callahan and the football guys, all high-floor low-ceiling guys, few of whom projected to much more than bench/bullpen-level players even at the time of the draft. There's an argument to be made that he should have targeted some of the riskier HS guys-- I remember posters calling for Virant, Eflin, Smoral, and McCullers, for example.
I do agree with your broader point that the 2012 draft was super shallow and so it's hard to judge Cherington too negatively even if none of the guys he drafted that year turn out to be anything.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Sept 13, 2013 21:53:01 GMT -5
I think it's strange to point to the exact slot a player was taken at as an indication as to what might be expected from that player. And by strange I guess I mean futile.
And Lowry was drafted #30, not #31.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 13, 2013 22:29:16 GMT -5
I think the Ball pick was TOO risky. I understand the desire to go for it when you have a pick that high but you also don't want to blow it when you have a pick that high. Here is the guy I wanted. Everyone blew it off. Second thoughts anyone? Edit: Philip Ervin www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ervin-000phi
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Post by mainesox on Sept 13, 2013 22:34:27 GMT -5
The fact that Phil Ervin was on the board until the Reds picked at 27 should tell you most of what you need to know. He's a bit of a tweener in that he may end up a right fielder, and may not have enough bat for right field.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Sept 13, 2013 22:45:14 GMT -5
I think it's strange to point to the exact slot a player was taken at as an indication as to what might be expected from that player. And by strange I guess I mean futile. And Lowry was drafted #30, not #31. Sorry about Lowry, I had misread baseball-reference. The reason I pointed out past players selected 31st* overall is to point out how much failure is inherit to the draft. Something like 50% of high school pitchers selected between 1-50 never make the majors. This is of course not to say that your favorite team should skip drafting high school kids altogether, but rather, that a fan should check their expectations with respect to how likely it is for a HS pitcher to succeed. Trey Ball is a really nice prospect, I'm perfectly happy that Boston drafted him (I would have preferred Fraizer, but alas,the Indians didn't allow that to happen.I also liked Meadows more, like most of the folks on this board, but I understand the rationale behind Ball)but the odds of him ever making a start in the majors is pretty much 50/50. So I think it's perfectly reasonable to call someone out when their solution to a relatively weak draft class is simply "draft a bunch of high school arms." I also think it's a little disingenuous to argue that Deven Marrero and Brian Johnson weren't well regarded draft prospects. Neither were elite talents, but you don't generally get elite draft prospects with picks 24 and 31. It's nice when a team picks up a tools guy with questionable skills and they work out... but it's not something you're going to see a team be able to do, year in and year out. * on a side note, since 1965, only two players selected 31st overall have had sustained success at the majors. They are Jarrod Washburn (1995) and some guy named Maddux (1984).
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 13, 2013 23:12:00 GMT -5
About the 2012 draft thing...I wasn't mad at who they picked, it was quite a weak draft and they know more than me about these things. What I question was the need to go above slot for Marrero and slot for BJ. I thought they could have handle that better at worst they could have had 3 1st round picks this year one which would be in the top 10. Or they could have had more money to play with last year.
I did not like the picks but to me the thing that bothered me the most was the handling of the bonus pool.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 13, 2013 23:55:47 GMT -5
About the 2012 draft thing...I wasn't mad at who they picked, it was quite a weak draft and they know more than me about these things. What I question was the need to go above slot for Marrero and slot for BJ. I thought they could have handle that better at worst they could have had 3 1st round picks this year one which would be in the top 10. Or they could have had more money to play with last year. I did not like the picks but to me the thing that bothered me the most was the handling of the bonus pool. It was rumored up until Johnson signed as recall that it was only going to cost 1-1.2m to sign him. Maybe the team misread initial contacts they had earlier pre draft is another reason they took him so high.
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