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2016 MLB Draft
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Post by arzjake on Dec 20, 2015 0:18:01 GMT -5
I like that you guys know in Dec who the Red Sox have to take next June. A good GM should already know who they will target years ahead of any draft. Its called Scouting
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Post by ramireja on Dec 20, 2015 0:31:31 GMT -5
I like that you guys know in Dec who the Red Sox have to take next June. A good GM should already know who they will target years ahead of any draft. Its called Scouting Ha, are you missing your italics? Obviously the best way to predict how an 18 year old will perform in 5 years, is to make a decision regarding that projection when he is 15. I can guarantee you that nobody on the Red Sox scouting staff reasonably thought they should target Andrew Benintendi with the #7 pick at this point last year.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 20, 2015 0:44:45 GMT -5
And was wondering, is there a link to success in the Majors for first generation sons who were ranked highly in the draft, who actually delivered, meaning actually delivered careers beyond Griffey Jr? Anecdotal evidence is a memory spray-chart for me, is there any data out there that anyone has seen to quantify 2d generation success vs taking someone without pedigree.... Bobby Bonds' son was drafted sixth in 1985 and went on to have some success. Other notables off the top of my head: Moises Alou was drafted 2nd overall in 1986, and Prince Fielder was drafted 7th in 2002, and was seemingly on the prospect radar when he was 11.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2015 6:49:03 GMT -5
I like that you guys know in Dec who the Red Sox have to take next June. A good GM should already know who they will target years ahead of any draft. Its called Scouting I'm sure they were all over Andrew Benintendi after he hit .276 with little power as a frosh.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 20, 2015 7:25:53 GMT -5
Other notables off the top of my head: Moises Alou was drafted 2nd overall in 1986, Pretty sure Alou was an international signing. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Major_League_Baseball_draftBut to the point of prediction, it seems the past few years that the December list varies greatly from the final draft, other than the top one or two guys. Injuries have killed Manea, Funkhouser, the Virginia lefty, etc. And Benintendi, though pretty unusual, was not even on the top 100 list even in April, IIRC (I tried to look him up on BA lists, and recall he only got some mention in early spring, and finally broke through thereafter.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2015 8:38:05 GMT -5
And was wondering, is there a link to success in the Majors for first generation sons who were ranked highly in the draft, who actually delivered, meaning actually delivered careers beyond Griffey Jr? Anecdotal evidence is a memory spray-chart for me, is there any data out there that anyone has seen to quantify 2d generation success vs taking someone without pedigree.... Bobby Bonds' son was drafted sixth in 1985 and went on to have some success. Other notables off the top of my head: Moises Alou was drafted 2nd overall in 1986, and Prince Fielder was drafted 7th in 2002, and was seemingly on the prospect radar when he was 11. Don't forget - down the road - D'Angelo Ortiz.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 20, 2015 9:15:26 GMT -5
Other notables off the top of my head: Moises Alou was drafted 2nd overall in 1986, Pretty sure Alou was an international signing. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Major_League_Baseball_draftBut to the point of prediction, it seems the past few years that the December list varies greatly from the final draft, other than the top one or two guys. Injuries have killed Manea, Funkhouser, the Virginia lefty, etc. And Benintendi, though pretty unusual, was not even on the top 100 list even in April, IIRC (I tried to look him up on BA lists, and recall he only got some mention in early spring, and finally broke through thereafter.) Looked it up... Alou actually went in the old January supplemental draft. So yeah, not quite the same as going #2 in June but he was still highly sought after.
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Post by arzjake on Dec 20, 2015 11:34:46 GMT -5
A good GM should already know who they will target years ahead of any draft. Its called Scouting Ha, are you missing your italics? Obviously the best way to predict how an 18 year old will perform in 5 years, is to make a decision regarding that projection when he is 15. I can guarantee you that nobody on the Red Sox scouting staff reasonably thought they should target Andrew Benintendi with the #7 pick at this point last year. Lets agree on this, No more drafting of "project types", see TBall....
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 20, 2015 12:06:55 GMT -5
Ha, are you missing your italics? Obviously the best way to predict how an 18 year old will perform in 5 years, is to make a decision regarding that projection when he is 15. I can guarantee you that nobody on the Red Sox scouting staff reasonably thought they should target Andrew Benintendi with the #7 pick at this point last year. Lets agree on this, No more drafting of "project types", see TBall.... Yeah, let's stick to the polished Mike Trout types.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 20, 2015 13:35:35 GMT -5
Ha, are you missing your italics? Obviously the best way to predict how an 18 year old will perform in 5 years, is to make a decision regarding that projection when he is 15. I can guarantee you that nobody on the Red Sox scouting staff reasonably thought they should target Andrew Benintendi with the #7 pick at this point last year. Lets agree on this, No more drafting of "project types", see TBall.... See also: JLester.
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 20, 2015 13:41:23 GMT -5
Ha, are you missing your italics? Obviously the best way to predict how an 18 year old will perform in 5 years, is to make a decision regarding that projection when he is 15. I can guarantee you that nobody on the Red Sox scouting staff reasonably thought they should target Andrew Benintendi with the #7 pick at this point last year. Lets agree on this, No more drafting of "project types", see TBall.... No, and I think your view of drafting is way off. It should be fluid.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 20, 2015 13:56:39 GMT -5
I like that you guys know in Dec who the Red Sox have to take next June. A good GM should already know who they will target years ahead of any draft. Its called Scouting So why not have the 2019 draft right now every team knows who the gonna draft right now, nothing is gonna change. Every team knows about the players who will be eligible and have their list of who they'll follow in the spring (in Benintendi's many teams didn't even know he was eligible actually) that's part of scouting. They have made no descision who they have to take not even the team picking 1st is locked in on someone let alone the team picking 12th. A lot of baseball left to be played yet.
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Post by arzjake on Dec 21, 2015 22:12:18 GMT -5
For goodness sakes, smell the coffee.
I'm sure all teams have many players they scout in advance. Some players scouted more heavily than others.
Look at the International signings. You have 16 year olds being signed. You think teams started scouting these players when they turned 16.
I have a distant relative. Bruce Boisclair who played with the Mets. They were scouting him in 9th grade..
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Post by telson13 on Dec 22, 2015 1:13:28 GMT -5
For goodness sakes, smell the coffee. I'm sure all teams have many players they scout in advance. Some players scouted more heavily than others. Look at the International signings. You have 16 year olds being signed. You think teams started scouting these players when they turned 16. I have a distant relative. Bruce Boisclair who played with the Mets. They were scouting him in 9th grade.. There's a vast ocean of difference between picking out players to scout, and zeroing in on a single player at a draft position that isn't even determined until eight months before the draft. The idea that a team knows who they're going to draft several years before a draft is absolutely ludicrous. They might have a loose idea of players who could potentially be within a few rounds, but the kind of certainty and specificity you're positing is beyond the pale.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2015 8:26:01 GMT -5
For goodness sakes, smell the coffee. I'm sure all teams have many players they scout in advance. Some players scouted more heavily than others. Look at the International signings. You have 16 year olds being signed. You think teams started scouting these players when they turned 16. I have a distant relative. Bruce Boisclair who played with the Mets. They were scouting him in 9th grade.. Yea bud, they have no idea who they are going to take years in advance. They obviously scout some players for years and others for a much much shorter time. This applies to signing international free agents.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 22, 2015 9:25:18 GMT -5
Teams scout guys years in advance at things like showcases and tournaments, and when they play in summer leagues and on teams like Team USA. However, the real bearing down for the June draft starts the previous summer. The Red Sox may have a watch list of guys for the spring, but they don't have "an idea" of who they're going to take. The Benintendi example is a perfect one - there's no chance that after the freshman season he had and the fact that he didn't play over the summer, they were targeting him at #7 any time before mid-spring.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 22, 2015 9:34:51 GMT -5
My grandfather scouted for the Sox back in the 70's & 80's. His main concern was the signability of a kid, especially out of high school. Chris is right as he focused on HS allstar games, legion tournaments, summer tourney's ect. He worked out of SW Fla & he would follow kids starting early in HS, meaning 2 or 3 years before he graduated.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Dec 22, 2015 10:57:51 GMT -5
Benintendi is a rare situation where people didn't realize he was a draft eligible sophomore in combination with his short track record in college. He always flashed a good hit tool and speed in HS though, so I'm sure some teams remembered him even though he wasn't really on their radar to begin this season.
Im not saying any of you guys didn't know that, but just pointing out that his situation was pretty rare.
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Post by arzjake on Dec 22, 2015 22:53:04 GMT -5
For goodness sakes, smell the coffee. I'm sure all teams have many players they scout in advance. Some players scouted more heavily than others. Look at the International signings. You have 16 year olds being signed. You think teams started scouting these players when they turned 16. I have a distant relative. Bruce Boisclair who played with the Mets. They were scouting him in 9th grade.. There's a vast ocean of difference between picking out players to scout, and zeroing in on a single player at a draft position that isn't even determined until eight months before the draft. The idea that a team knows who they're going to draft several years before a draft is absolutely ludicrous. They might have a loose idea of players who could potentially be within a few rounds, but the kind of certainty and specificity you're positing is beyond the pale. You my friend need to smell the post. Take a deep breathe. let me clarify, I don't think any team zero's in on anyone who is 12 years old playing in little league and say that is the guy in 5 years were going to draft. I didn't say that. I do believe it's starts with a strong scouting system where a strong scouting budget has players identified at a young age. Then teams watch the progression of those players and weed them out over time.
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Post by arzjake on Dec 22, 2015 22:55:43 GMT -5
My grandfather scouted for the Sox back in the 70's & 80's. His main concern was the signability of a kid, especially out of high school. Chris is right as he focused on HS allstar games, legion tournaments, summer tourney's ect. He worked out of SW Fla & he would follow kids starting early in HS, meaning 2 or 3 years before he graduated. That's all I'm saying brother. It starts early.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 23, 2015 1:08:58 GMT -5
There's a vast ocean of difference between picking out players to scout, and zeroing in on a single player at a draft position that isn't even determined until eight months before the draft. The idea that a team knows who they're going to draft several years before a draft is absolutely ludicrous. They might have a loose idea of players who could potentially be within a few rounds, but the kind of certainty and specificity you're positing is beyond the pale. You my friend need to smell the post. Take a deep breathe. let me clarify, I don't think any team zero's in on anyone who is 12 years old playing in little league and say that is the guy in 5 years were going to draft. I didn't say that. I do believe it's starts with a strong scouting system where a strong scouting budget has players identified at a young age. Then teams watch the progression of those players and weed them out over time. Or maybe you might want to communicate your thoughts with much more precision. Clearly, most posters here interpreted your assertions quite differently from what now appears to be your intent. Perhaps a "deep breath" before your own post comes out smelling? FWIW, I'm just busting your chops here, because if your original intent was to say that teams "like" and follow players for several years before a draft, but with only a general sense of whether they're draftable or not, I completely agree. But I think it's very non-specific and extremely fluid, and that's not reflected in your original post.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 23, 2015 7:12:55 GMT -5
There's a vast ocean of difference between picking out players to scout, and zeroing in on a single player at a draft position that isn't even determined until eight months before the draft. The idea that a team knows who they're going to draft several years before a draft is absolutely ludicrous. They might have a loose idea of players who could potentially be within a few rounds, but the kind of certainty and specificity you're positing is beyond the pale. You my friend need to smell the post. Take a deep breathe. let me clarify, I don't think any team zero's in on anyone who is 12 years old playing in little league and say that is the guy in 5 years were going to draft. I didn't say that. I do believe it's starts with a strong scouting system where a strong scouting budget has players identified at a young age. Then teams watch the progression of those players and weed them out over time. You aren't even considering the fact that some prospects (or most), go way up or way down in the last 6 months prior to the year they are drafted. Some rise up out of nowhere and some get Tommy John, etc. That doesn't have anything to do with how teams were supposedly scouting them from when they were 12 or not. Hell some of the kids who get drafted aren't even playing baseball at the age when you expect teams to know exactly what they're going to be 5 years later at the draft and then 5 years later after that when they may be major league ready. Complaining about the Red Sox scouting is ridiculous. They have a top 5 system. What more do you want? Perfection isn't realistic in such a volatile 'science'.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 23, 2015 10:42:14 GMT -5
I like that you guys know in Dec who the Red Sox have to take next June. A good GM should already know who they will target years ahead of any draft. Its called Scouting Just to review this was the post that got everyone going. It was in response to someone saying glad you know who they should take now. Player development at younger ages varies so greatly from one player to the next at all sports. Sure there are the elite of the elite who if they stay healthy can sometimes be identified from an early age but for every Lebron James there's a Felipe Lopez. The majority of the players fall into a much lessor category with way way more variance. There's a difference between identifying players of interest at young ages and really digging in and scouting. Especially, with American born players because of the draft.
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Post by michael on Dec 23, 2015 11:08:44 GMT -5
Remember that beauty is in the eye of the beerholder.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 23, 2015 14:12:10 GMT -5
Remember that beauty is in the eye of the beerholder. Is that you Sam?
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