Garin Cecchini traded to Brewers for cash

Dec 11, 2015 7:52:18 GMT -5 jimed14 said:

Dec 10, 2015 18:07:47 GMT -5 umassgrad2005 said:

So you base a power dip on 214 AB's, while what just ignoring the 455 AB's at Greenville?  Let me say this one last time, Cecchini has never had any power, besides a fluke 214 AB's.  If you said that my doubts were his D or that he won't be able to hit better pitching then yes you can claim to have known what was going to happen to Cecchini.  But you keep saying his lack of power was the red flag that made you know he was going to flame out and that's just not true.

Cecchini was known as an elite contact hitter and someone that had elite on base skills at the end of 2013.  Now he is no longer an elite contact hitter and thus his on base % has gone in the tank.  This is the reason Cecchini was traded and the main reason he is a failed prospect, not his lack of power.

Do you think we trade him if he hit .270 and had an on base % of .350 or better, even if he had very little power?  Nope, his overall hitting did him in, not his lack of power!!!!!!!!!

The lack of power is why pitchers pitch him differently now than when he was at the height of his hype in Salem (and obviously as you move up the pitchers are better at attacking a hitter's weakness).  That's why his hit tool went away.  He tried to adjust. That was exactly my concern.  I could not find any major league players with his hitting profile.

If you want to argue his power in Salem was a fluke, go ahead, you'd be right.  But there weren't a lot of people who thought that at the time.  I didn't start to think it was a fluke until he got to Portland.  Pawtucket confirmed it.

How have they pitched him differently?  Just looked over his strikeout rate and it really hasn't changed at all.  Last 4 years its 90, 86, 99, and 100.  His ABs are roughly the same for those 4 years.  You seem to be arguing that pitchers not fearing his power started to overpower him and the stats don't back that up.  I would agree if there was a big jump in his strikeouts, but that didn't happen.  Going from A ball to AAA I would expect to see a slight increase in strikeouts.  Do you have stats that prove your point?  What's his BA on balls in play that last 4 years?  What his line drive, fly ball to ground ball ratio that last  years? Data o % of types of pitches from year to year?  Strikeout rate staying roughly the same shows that he was making contact still, but getting a lot less hits.  Was he not hitting the ball as hard?    

I think this is a simple case a player being blocked at the major league level that was trying to impress and it back fired. In 2014 he was really bad for first half of year and then was really good to end the year.  The end of 2014 showed he can hit AAA pitching.  The we go out and sign Pablo and Hanley blocking him completely and then he just falls off a cliff the next year. 

Dec 11, 2015 8:37:36 GMT -5 fenwaythehardway said:

Dec 10, 2015 18:07:47 GMT -5 umassgrad2005 said:

Do you think we trade him if he hit .270 and had an on base % of .350 or better, even if he had very little power?  Nope, his overall hitting did him in, not his lack of power!!!!!!!!!

The higher up the ladder you go, the more you need power to get on base.

Any time I hear about a prospect who gets the "Wade Boggs type hitter" tag thrown on them, I'm skeptical. You just don't see a lot of hitters have major league success with the OBP/contact/no power skill set.

I don't agree you need power to get on base. Explain a little more so I can understand what exactly you mean, thanks.  Walks and singles will get you on base just as much as walks and doubles, triples and homeruns.

I will agree that a high OBP/contact hitter/no power is a very rare skill set, but it can play in the majors if the hitter hits a lot.  Look at Dee Gordon, contact hitter with only so so OBP skills and no power till he turned 27 and bam he starts to hit for more power.

Dec 11, 2015 12:00:17 GMT -5 jimed14 said:

Dec 11, 2015 11:52:26 GMT -5 umassgrad2005 said:

I don't agree you need power to get on base. Explain a little more so I can understand what exactly you mean, thanks.  Walks and singles will get you on base just as much as walks and doubles, triples and homeruns.

I will agree that a high OBP/contact hitter/no power is a very rare skill set, but it can play in the majors if the hitter hits a lot.  Look at Dee Gordon, contact hitter with only so so OBP skills and no power till he turned 27 and bam he starts to hit for more power.

High OBP/contact hitter/no power could work in the majors if and only if you have an elite contact rate or elite speed.  But Cecchini doesn't have that.  He is (was) a line drive hitter with an average to below average k-rate and average to below average speed.

Someone like Iglesias will be a better hitter than Cecchini because he has the speed (out of the box anyway) and his k-rate is now under 10%.  Dee Gordon is even faster and has a much better k-rate.  And I'm not sure how you think Gordon started hitting for power.  He had a .085 ISO last year, barely above his career rate and below his 2014 rate.

You just aren't going to find a decent major league hitter with a 20% k-rate and an ISO under .100.  I've looked.

Dee Gordon's slugging went from .378 to .418, that's a big improvement for him.  Please go back and look at Iglesias minor league numbers.  Most people didn't think Iglesias would hit enough in the majors as he was not a good hitter in the minors. He became a better hitter in the majors, like Hanley did. That's why we traded Iglesias as we thought his hitting was  fluke.  You don't trade him for a worn down peavy if you think he's going to be a good hitter with his plus D at SS.  Some players can't focus in the minors when they know they have a slim chances of playing for the major league club.

Cecchini has plus bat speed, future plus hitting tools and advanced strike zone knowledge.  He has the tools needed to hit enough for him to play in majors.  Really think your looking at more of a mental problem with him right now.

Dec 11, 2015 12:54:50 GMT -5 ramireja said:

Dec 11, 2015 11:39:06 GMT -5 umassgrad2005 said:

How have they pitched him differently?  Just looked over his strikeout rate and it really hasn't changed at all.  Last 4 years its 90, 86, 99, and 100.  His ABs are roughly the same for those 4 years.  You seem to be arguing that pitchers not fearing his power started to overpower him and the stats don't back that up.  I would agree if there was a big jump in his strikeouts, but that didn't happen.  Going from A ball to AAA I would expect to see a slight increase in strikeouts.  Do you have stats that prove your point?  What's his BA on balls in play that last 4 years?  What his line drive, fly ball to ground ball ratio that last  years? Data o % of types of pitches from year to year?  Strikeout rate staying roughly the same shows that he was making contact still, but getting a lot less hits.  Was he not hitting the ball as hard?    

I think this is a simple case a player being blocked at the major league level that was trying to impress and it back fired. In 2014 he was really bad for first half of year and then was really good to end the year.  The end of 2014 showed he can hit AAA pitching.  The we go out and sign Pablo and Hanley blocking him completely and then he just falls off a cliff the next year. 

If you looked at strikeout rate, why are you reporting raw strikeout numbers? Strikeout rate by level:

A+ = 13.0% (262 PA)
AA = 17.6% (295 PA)
AAA (2014) = 21.6% (458 PA)
AAA (2015) = 21.3% (469 PA)

You might think that represents a "slight increase" across levels, but the difference between a hitter who strikes 13% vs. 21% of the time is quite significant.

Your numbers are way wrong  AB's in 2014 is 438, in 2015 it's 426. 

In 2013 I don't include fall league AB's

2012 19.8%

2013 18.9%

2014 22.6%

2015 23.6%

Hence a slight increase.  19.8% to 23.6%