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Post by mandelbro on Dec 28, 2015 15:08:43 GMT -5
Looking at the Szymborski ZiPS projections, something caught my eye.
Ortiz .264/.350/.523
Betts .297/.355/.474
Ramirez .277/.358/.449
Pedroia .279/.339/.398
Bogaerts .289/.332/.415
Bradley .247/.319/.405
Travis .262/.313/.396
Holt .277/.333/.367
Shaw .238/.305/.393
Young .231/.304/.408
Sandoval .266/.314/.407
Castillo .260/.308/.369
Swihart .252/.297/.371
Obviously projections are just that, but it is interesting. What are the odds of Sam Travis actually getting a shot to contribute on the big league roster in 2016?
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 28, 2015 15:20:19 GMT -5
Looking at the Szymborski ZiPS projections, something caught my eye. Travis .262/.313/.396
Holt .277/.333/.367 Shaw .238/.305/.393
Obviously projections are just that, but it is interesting. What are the odds of Sam Travis actually getting a shot to contribute on the big league roster in 2016? If he handles the bump to AAA similarly to AA, I wouldn't be surprised to see him up in the second half at some point. It'd also depend a lot on the great uncertainty/potential failure of Hanley (and Shaw), of course, as they're not going to bring Travis up to play in a reserve role before September. I'm optimistic about Hanley's bat returning to form, and he should be a passable first baseman in theory, but the same could have been said about left field last year. On Shaw, I'm a bit pessimistic about the bat -- he was unsustainably good/lucky vs left-handers, and against righties he was below average.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 28, 2015 15:32:05 GMT -5
There's always a selection bias involved in projecting players who have never been in the majors. They are projected to be able to hit that well if and only if they are actually promoted. For instance, Sandy Leon severely underperformed his projection last year - my theory is that that's because he wouldn't have been in the majors under normal circumstances.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 28, 2015 16:51:18 GMT -5
Looking at the Szymborski ZiPS projections, something caught my eye. Ortiz .264/.350/.523 Betts .297/.355/.474 Ramirez .277/.358/.449 Pedroia .279/.339/.398 Bogaerts .289/.332/.415 Bradley .247/.319/.405 Travis .262/.313/.396
Holt .277/.333/.367 Shaw .238/.305/.393
Young .231/.304/.408 Sandoval .266/.314/.407 Castillo .260/.308/.369 Swihart .252/.297/.371 Obviously projections are just that, but it is interesting. What are the odds of Sam Travis actually getting a shot to contribute on the big league roster in 2016? That Swihart line seems really, really conservative (unfairly so) to me. I think he'll outperform that by a lot. Not to set my standards too high on him, but didn't he bat around .300 with a pretty good OBP in the second half? I wouldn't be surprised at all if his average is around .275 with a .320-.330 OBP and 10 homers, at the least.
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Post by p23w on Dec 28, 2015 19:10:27 GMT -5
Looking at the Szymborski ZiPS projections, something caught my eye. Ortiz .264/.350/.523 Betts .297/.355/.474 Ramirez .277/.358/.449 Pedroia .279/.339/.398 Bogaerts .289/.332/.415 Bradley .247/.319/.405 Travis .262/.313/.396
Holt .277/.333/.367 Shaw .238/.305/.393
Young .231/.304/.408 Sandoval .266/.314/.407 Castillo .260/.308/.369 Swihart .252/.297/.371 Obviously projections are just that, but it is interesting. What are the odds of Sam Travis actually getting a shot to contribute on the big league roster in 2016? That Swihart line seems really, really conservative (unfairly so) to me. I think he'll outperform that by a lot. Not to set my standards too high on him, but didn't he bat around .300 with a pretty good OBP in the second half? I wouldn't be surprised at all if his average is around .275 with a .320-.330 OBP and 10 homers, at the least. ITA. Swihart's projections stood out the most to me. Less OBP and more power than Castillo? Don't see it.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 29, 2015 13:32:19 GMT -5
The Chris Young line seemed a bit light to me, average wise, especially since he'll be seeing a lot of LH pitching. Unless this projection system assumes said player will face equal amounts of LHP & RHP.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 31, 2015 14:44:01 GMT -5
I just glanced through the ZIPS and Steamer projections for the Sox. Steamer is more bullish on most of the players. If I counted correctly, they also projected 93 wins for the Sox.
Is there any consensus on which projection system is better, or how these two compare to BP and others?
The problem I have with the ZIPS projections is that there are far too many PAs for a number of players. Steamer seems to have a more realistic projection of PAs. ZIPS is trying to project what a player would do basically as a starter. So Shaw, Travis and Ramirez have more PAs than they could in reality. It seems to me that projecting a player as a starter would yield different results from those projecting him as a bench/partimer.
BTW, Happy New Year everyone!
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 31, 2015 15:15:21 GMT -5
Focusing on steamer or zips projections with anything more than a passing glance is probably foolish.
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Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2015 18:26:36 GMT -5
Automated projection systems struggle with players without an established major league track record, and I agree that for prospects/young players, they're not super useful. However, for players with a couple years or more in the majors, they provide as good of an answer to the question of "how good will [X] be next year?" as any other resource out there.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 31, 2015 21:41:48 GMT -5
What stands out to me is the overall low SLG numbers. This outcome would not score all that many runs. They do predict a bounce back for Hanley tho
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,322
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Post by radiohix on Jan 1, 2016 8:09:05 GMT -5
IMO, the fans who pay attention to the BB% of a 17 years old OF in the DSL or the fastball velocity of 21 years old pitcher in the SAL are the most hardcore baseball fan. So, happy new year to all the posters here and the writers and mods on this amazing site/forum: You guys are the best!
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Post by Guidas on Jan 1, 2016 10:36:19 GMT -5
What stands out to me is the overall low SLG numbers. This outcome would not score all that many runs. They do predict a bounce back for Hanley tho Looks like more of a doubles bounce-back, though. In fact, ZiPS has JBJ with almost identical double and HR numbers to Hanley. I still believe if he's healthy, Hanley should be good for 25+ HRs. Of course I think JBJ should be good for 15-20 as well so what do I know?
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Post by burythehammer on Jan 1, 2016 19:56:19 GMT -5
Automated projection systems struggle with players without an established major league track record, and I agree that for prospects/young players, they're not super useful. I dunno. They loved Mookie going into last year (and the year before prior to his first callup). I think the problem with Swihart is less an issue with projection systems and more the fact that he's never really put up outstanding offensive numbers at any level. He's a very good prospect (and a decent player right now) because he's a legit catcher with the tools to be a good hitter, but why would anyone project him to be anything close to an average MLB hitter in 2016?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Jan 1, 2016 20:12:47 GMT -5
Automated projection systems struggle with players without an established major league track record, and I agree that for prospects/young players, they're not super useful. I dunno. They loved Mookie going into last year (and the year before prior to his first callup). I think the problem with Swihart is less an issue with projection systems and more the fact that he's never really put up outstanding offensive numbers at any level. He's a very good prospect (and a decent player right now) because he's a legit catcher with the tools to be a good hitter, but why would anyone project him to be anything close to an average MLB hitter in 2016? His 2nd half did consist of basically a .300/.350/.450 line
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Post by burythehammer on Jan 1, 2016 20:28:24 GMT -5
And a 6% walk rate, 24% strikeout rate, which were basically the same as his first half. He hit for more power and had a .391 BABIP. And just because a guy is a young player doesn't mean we can automatically assume that a 2-3 month split like that signifies some kind of actual improvement/adjustment, especially when his underlying performance was essentially the same.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 1, 2016 20:37:42 GMT -5
And a 6% walk rate, 24% strikeout rate, which were basically the same as his first half. He hit for more power and had a .391 BABIP. And just because a guy is a young player doesn't mean we can automatically assume that a 2-3 month split like that signifies some kind of actual improvement/adjustment, especially when his underlying performance was essentially the same. But the increased power was not the same. It was significant. His ISO went from .083 to .148.
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Post by mandelbro on Jan 1, 2016 21:18:53 GMT -5
Automated projection systems struggle with players without an established major league track record, and I agree that for prospects/young players, they're not super useful. I dunno. They loved Mookie going into last year (and the year before prior to his first callup). I think the problem with Swihart is less an issue with projection systems and more the fact that he's never really put up outstanding offensive numbers at any level. He's a very good prospect (and a decent player right now) because he's a legit catcher with the tools to be a good hitter, but why would anyone project him to be anything close to an average MLB hitter in 2016? Yes. Swihart hasn't put up BAD numbers at any stop, but it seems to me that the optimism about him is centered around the scouting angle imo. He has great tools. He looks really good in the cage and he's supposedly a decent enough kid.
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Post by jmei on Jan 15, 2016 10:24:40 GMT -5
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Post by borisman on Jan 15, 2016 13:46:36 GMT -5
Good article. The only thing I question in regards to run prevention improvement is HANLEY, though he may be on a short leash if he doesn't show he can handle 1B during SP.
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Post by joshv02 on Jan 15, 2016 13:54:30 GMT -5
How does he add 10-15 runs on defense from Hanley, and then say that changes the win projection from 92 to 86-88?
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Post by jmei on Jan 15, 2016 14:03:36 GMT -5
There was also some discussion about Sandoval's power and (in the comments) a strong division (no standouts, but every team (except maybe the Orioles) should be competitive). But, yeah, probably closer to 89 to 90 would be my guess, which would still be the highest projection in the AL.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 15, 2016 14:17:34 GMT -5
Hope we all realize that there are enough question marks with this team to make all the projections prone to both overshoot and undershoot. That's because the team has really transitioned to a younger core, with lots of questions about their older players and real uncertainty about the pitchers as well. Here are just some of those. See what you can do with these questions to "tighten up" the projections: - Is Uehara OK now?
- Can Bogaerts start to re-introduce power into the mix?
- Will Betts continue to develop his hitting skills, and to show well in the outfield?
- Which Jackie Bradley will show up (offensively)?
- Was that just a tired arm on Tazawa last year?
- Will Ramirez make a move back up towards career norms?
- Will Sandoval make a move back up towards career norms?
- Can Ortiz continue to perform and at what level?
- Will Pedroia get hurt again?
- Can Ramirez stay healthy?
- How many innings can Buchholz pitch?
- Was that the real Joe Kelly at the end of last season?
- Was that the real Rick Porcello at the end of last season?
- What does Roenis Elias bring to the team?
Those are just a few I came up with off the top of my head. I'm sure all of you can think of a few more.
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Post by jmei on Jan 15, 2016 14:21:43 GMT -5
Yeah, it's definitely a high-risk team, for reasons I discussed here (in short: with a few exceptions, it's all young players and veterans coming off bad seasons, who are the riskiest sorts of players). Anything between 82 and 98 wins is easily within the realm of possibility.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2016 15:59:27 GMT -5
Yeah, it's definitely a high-risk team, for reasons I discussed here (in short: with a few exceptions, it's all young players and veterans coming off bad seasons, who are the riskiest sorts of players). Anything between 82 and 98 wins is easily within the realm of possibility. The stealthy and necessary rebuild is almost complete. We just need one of the big 3 hitting prospects to replace Papi's bat either directly or with a combination. Personally, I love what they showed down the stretch last year and think that's close to the team that shows up this year.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 15, 2016 17:02:21 GMT -5
Yeah, it's definitely a high-risk team, for reasons I discussed here (in short: with a few exceptions, it's all young players and veterans coming off bad seasons, who are the riskiest sorts of players). Anything between 82 and 98 wins is easily within the realm of possibility. The stealthy and necessary rebuild is almost complete. We just need one of the big 3 hitting prospects to replace Papi's bat either directly or with a combination. Personally, I love what they showed down the stretch last year and think that's close to the team that shows up this year. That seems most reasonable, that the late season Sox are likely, for numerous reasons: Price makes the rotation better in many ways, as a stopper, mentor, Ace. Kimbrel + Smith added to Koji, Taz, Ross, Layne, Wright + deep depth. They replace the worst years of Breslow, Cook, Machi, Masterson, Mujica, Ogando. Speed and hustle: Castillo, Swihart, Bradley, Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Holt, Young. Power: All 9 positions will produce 10 - 20+HR and 25+ 2B &.3B. OBP: a team OBP around .350 is likely. Defense: Average to above average at every position but one. Defense: best defensive OF in baseball: glove, range, arms, assists. Age: a dozen young but experienced rising stara. Age: older vets (Papi, Pedey, Koji, Hanley, Young, Price, are star quality. Team: they learned to play together late 2015. Team: they have been improved with Price, Kimbrel, Smith, Young, Elias. Team: they will be improved with a healthy Koji, Taz, Buch, Pedey, Hanley, Panda, CV, Brentz, Varvaro, Workman. Team: they are highly motivated by last year's epic fail and Papi's retirement. Team: their offseasons have been very purposeful. Front Office: DDo will continue to be pro-active through the season in both team building (trades) and prospect development. More: there are many more indicators of success. There are some big "if's" (like Hanley and Panda at the corners) and they absolutely could unravevel, like any promising team. But that seems far less likely than their obvious ability to contend in 2016 and beyond. Just my optmistic two cents.
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