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Young, Elite Starting Pitchers
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Post by honkbal on Dec 12, 2012 11:38:35 GMT -5
I'm trying not to distract from other threads with this, but I feel like a few threads keep drifting towards this.
So. Without this becoming a trade proposal thread. Maybe we can discuss the value of "elite" young starting pitching? Who are these people? Should/can the Red Sox acquire one?
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Post by honkbal on Dec 12, 2012 11:40:05 GMT -5
I would trade any 4 of the Sox top 10 minor leaguers for Price or Kershaw, plus 1-2 others from the top 11-20; I would trade any 5 top 10 prospects for King Felix. Well, that's great, but I can't imagine the Dodgers, they of the infinite payroll, have any intention to trade Kershaw, no matter what you throw at them. And it would likely take more than that to get the Rays to trade Price within the division. Also: I am, at the same time, unsure I would pay that price for two years of Felix and unconvinced that the offer would be enough. I would've given Grienke 5 years max, but he is a step down from those three named above (and a step down from Cole Hamels, imho), so I'd have to think about the dollars and see the medicals. I love Sanchez but he's damaged goods and not worth more than 4 yrs. If I had to have him I'd do an overpay on 3 years with a team option for the 4th based on innings pitched in years 2 & 3. Sanchez has started 31-32 games per year for the last three years. That said, I don't know that I'd give him more than 4 years either, and that's almost certainly what it would take. |
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Post by bluechip on Dec 12, 2012 12:31:41 GMT -5
Should/can the Red Sox acquire one? I feel like its nearly impossible to acquire an established elite pitcher. If a young pitcher who has the chance to become elite is on the market, I am in favor of the Red Sox jumping in. For instance the best pitcher recently traded is probably Gio Gonzalez. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 12, 2012 12:39:56 GMT -5
Allen Webster, Rubby DeLaRosa and Matt Barnes all have the potential, at least, to become elite, young starters.
With the Indians trade as an example, Trevor Bauer could soon be one of those Elite, young SPs. So could Jake Odorizzi who was also recently traded.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 12, 2012 12:48:01 GMT -5
Should/can the Red Sox acquire one? I feel like its nearly impossible to acquire an established elite pitcher. If a young pitcher who has the chance to become elite is on the market, I am in favor of the Red Sox jumping in. For instance the best pitcher recently traded is probably Gio Gonzalez. Followed by Mat Latos, I suppose. |
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Post by jmei on Dec 12, 2012 13:36:35 GMT -5
Here are some young starters who might become available in trade over the next few years and have either put up elite performances or are potential breakout candidates: YOUNG, ELITE BUILDING BLOCKS-Brett Anderson (24, 3.55 career xFIP): signed through 2013 for $5.5m, with $8m and $12m club options for 2014-15. He probably won't be available for another season at least, but Beane is well-known for trading his young starters a year or two before free agency. Would require a significant trade return, however. -Yovani Gallardo (26, 3.50 xFIP): club option for 2015. Brewers won't make him available until next offseason at the earliest, and he'll attract a lot of interest on the trade market. BREAKOUT POSSIBILITIES-Edinson Volquez (29, 4.19 career xFIP): last year of arbitration-eligibility in 2013. Has great stuff and the Padres are likely to make him available either now or by the trade deadline. His command is pretty awful but so was Gio Gonzalez's before his breakout this past year. Like Gonzalez, has the ability to both strike guys out (8.67 K/9) and get lots of ground balls (48.2% GB), but needs to cut his career 4.93 BB/9. May be open to a contract extension before he hits free agency (not a Boras client). -Justin Masterson (27, 3.94 xFIP): team control through 2014. Still can't solve lefties but should at least be a middle-of-the-rotation guy with great stuff and the potential to be great if he cuts his walk rates or ever figures out lefties. WON'T BE ACES, BUT YOUNG AND SOME UPSIDE-Homer Bailey (26, 4.15 career xFIP): free agent after 2014. May be available if Chapman moves to the rotation, although the Reds may trade Mike Leake (25, career 3.87 xFIP) instead. The Red Sox should be interested in both of them-- Leake has a much lower ceiling but is young and is under team control through 2015 ( here's a good scouting report on him). -Rick Porcello (24, 4.10 xFIP): team control through 2015. Tigers are inexplicably exploring trades for Porcello. Another #2/3 ceiling guy, but young and lots of years of team control. VETERANS ABOUT TO HIT FREE AGENCY-Tim Lincecum (28, 3.29 career xFIP): one year left at $22.25m. Giants may be trying to move his salary. Has declined pretty significantly since his peak years but is only 28 and might be a bounce-back candidate. He'd probably require the smallest prospect package but may be difficult to re-sign prior to free agency. -Matt Garza (29, 4.05 career xFIP): free agent after 2013, almost certainly on the block this offseason or trade deadline. Had elbow troubles in 2012 but is reportedly throwing again. Probably has the ceiling of a #2 and probably won't sign a below-market extension, but will be one of the few clear upgrades on the current rotation who is both young and available over the next eight months. -Ubaldo Jimenez (28, 4.02 xFIP): $8m club option for 2014. He really struggled in 2012 and the Indians look like they're in a full rebuild. Might come cheap but his stuff has gotten significantly worse since his peak in 2010. |
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Post by honkbal on Dec 12, 2012 13:38:34 GMT -5
Alright, so, to start off, we should probably find some cut-off to establish what qualifies as elite, young pitching. I decided "average or better and thirty or younger" makes for a decent starting point. Certainly, it would be tough to argue that anyone with below average performance would be elite and that any guys on the wrong side of 30 are young. In that spirit, here is a list of pitchers 30 or younger with 500+ IP and an ERA- of 100 or better from 2010-2012 (sorted by ERA-). Players in parenthesis are those with >250IP from 2011-2012 who did not meet the above IP requirement; they are sorted by FIP- and anyone with a 100 or better FIP- is on the list. Similarly, players in brackets did not meet either above IP requirement, but had 150+ IP in 2012 with a FIP- of 100 or better; again they are sorted by FIP-. Obviously, this is an imperfect method, and it might have missed a potential above average pitcher or two currently in the league (perhaps you still believe in Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, and Homer Bailey?). If you want to include prospects in the conversation here is a link to John Sickels' "Preliminary Top 50 Pitching Prospects List for 2013". 1 Justin Verlander 2 Clayton Kershaw 3 Jered Weaver [Stephen Strasburg] 4 Johnny Cueto [Yu Darvish] 5 David Price 6 Cole Hamels 7 Felix Hernandez (Chris Sale) [Wade Miley] 8 Gio Gonzalez 9 Matt Cain (Brandon McCarthy) (Josh Johnson) (Jaime Garcia) (Matt Harrison) [Adam Wainwright] 10 Ian Kennedy [Jarrod Parker] 11 Doug Fister 12 Madison Bumgarner (Jordan Zimmermann) (Daniel Hudson) 13 Mat Latos (Brandon Morrow) 14 Jon Lester (Jeff Samardzija) 15 Trevor Cahill 16 Shaun Marcum (Vance Worley) [Lance Lynn] 17 Anibal Sanchez 18 Matt Garza 19 Yovani Gallardo 20 Max Scherzer 21 Zack Greinke 22 James Shields [Scott Diamond] 23 Tommy Hanson 24 Ricky Romero (Jason Hammel) [Lucas Harrell] 25 Tim Lincecum 26 Gavin Floyd 27 Edwin Jackson [Matt Moore] ADD: Meanwhile, jmei jumps to the real point. Most of the guys you'd want on this list aren't likely to be available any time soon. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 12, 2012 14:47:45 GMT -5
I would trade any 4 of the Sox top 10 minor leaguers for Price or Kershaw, plus 1-2 others from the top 11-20; I would trade any 5 top 10 prospects for King Felix. Easy there, Dayton. Two of those guys aren't going anywhere, and I really don't see the point of gutting the farm for Felix when you can just get him as a FA in a couple of years anyway. |
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Post by bluechip on Dec 12, 2012 19:17:33 GMT -5
I like SIERA. Plus it add some available names to the discussion. 2010-2012, 32 years or younger, 450 ip
1 Cole Hamels 3.18
2 Clayton Kershaw 3.20
3 Felix Hernandez 3.21
4 Justin Verlander 3.24
5 Zack Greinke 3.24
6 James Shields 3.35
7 Madison Bumgarner 3.40
8 Dan Haren 3.40
9 CC Sabathia 3.41
10 Max Scherzer 3.43
11 David Price 3.44
12 Yovani Gallardo 3.46
13 Brandon Morrow 3.46
14 Mat Latos 3.48
15 Tim Lincecum Giants 3.53
16 Jered Weaver 3.58
17 Jaime Garcia 3.58
18 Jon Lester 3.59
19 Anibal Sanchez 3.67
20 Jon Niese 3.68
21 Tommy Hanson 3.73
22 Ian Kennedy 3.73
23 Matt Garza 3.75
24 Matt Cain 3.77
25 Doug Fister 3.78
26 Francisco Liriano 3.80
27 Gio Gonzalez 3.81
28 Shaun Marcum 3.83
29 Ricky Nolasco 3.84
30 Gavin Floyd 3.85
I bolded the players who may be available in free agency or trade.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 20:25:02 GMT -5
i really would like to ask cherington why we are pursuing dempster after posting an horrible 5.09 ERA in the American league last year. How would he do any better in Boston? if anything, he would be worse. In that case, you may as well bring aaron cook back! WHY WOULD YOU SIGN A 35 YEAR OLD PITCHER WHO SPORTS A 5.09 ERA IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE AND BOUND TO DO WORSE IN THE A.L. EAST?
i really would like to ask cherington also why dickey is the backup plan if dempster is not signed. they mets said it would take bogaerts and bradley to get him. He is old and only has a year left in him. WHY ON EARTH WOULD YOU TRADE TWO FUTURE CORNERSTONE PLAYERS FOR A KNUCKLEBALL PITCHER WHO IS 38?
Could someone please tell me why on earth the Red Sox are doing this? I would really like to know. I can't think of one good reason why either of these acquisitions would be good for the sox now or in the future.
why are the red sox trying to win next year? it won't happen! rebuild the farm system and bring up cornerstone young players. sorry for all the emphasis, but i really want to know. i would really like to have a face to face conversation with cherington to find out why.
what is wrong with the rotation, plus with the depth we have?
1. Lester
2. Buchholz
3. Doubront
4. Lackey
5. Morales
Lester and Buchholz are bound for rebound seasons with farrell there. doubront has a full season under his belt and should be fine with arm fatigue and learning how to pitch. lackey has a brand new arm and should rebound. morales was very effective as a starter. he was told he would come to spring training as a starter. what is wrong with this rotation?
also he have de la rosa, godfrey, wright, hernandez, webster, doyle, britton, and workman for depth. if the sox are so set on acquiring a pitcher, who gets booted from this rotation? they have good options! de la rosa is supposed to be a frontline starter!
I'M SICK OF TRYING TO WIN IMMEDIATELY AFTER A BAD YEAR AND NEVER GIVING YOUNG GUYS A CHANCE AND INSTEAD GIVING A CHANCE TO OLD, WASHED UP GUYS. sorry for all caps- just for emphases
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2012 21:01:40 GMT -5
Why are you writing in all caps about things that haven't happened? Relax kemosabe.
As for the guys you mention, there is zero evidence that Morales's shoulder will hold up to starting over the course of a season (that's not just last year - it was his problem in Colorado as well). He's thrown over 150 innings twice, and that was in 2006 and 2007. He's only topped 100 innings one other time, with 135 in 2008. Relying on him to pitch more than 100 innings this year would be nuts, even if the shoulder wasn't an issue.
The other problem is that much of the starting pitching "depth" you list is entirely unproven at best. Given the odds, about half of those guys are probably bullpen arms in the majors.
Even if you're bullish on Lester and Buchholz bouncing back this year, if you assume everything goes perfectly with Lackey's return health-wise, and if Doubront becomes more consistent than he was last year, it's pretty tough to make the argument that the Red Sox have sufficient MLB pitching depth to make it through a major league season, even if they're not trying to win a championship necessarily. Last year you could have made the argument that they had Cook, Germano, and Ohlendorf in AAA for depth, and those guys all came up and stunk, for the Sox or otherwise, after destroying the IL.
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Post by jioh on Dec 12, 2012 21:03:00 GMT -5
Well, I guess if you use caps, italics, bold, underlining, and multiple exclamation points, you must be right.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 12, 2012 21:17:20 GMT -5
Why are you writing in all caps about things that haven't happened? Relax kemosabe. As for the guys you mention, there is zero evidence that Morales's shoulder will hold up to starting over the course of a season (that's not just last year - it was his problem in Colorado as well). He's thrown over 150 innings twice, and that was in 2006 and 2007. He's only topped 100 innings one other time, with 135 in 2008. Relying on him to pitch more than 100 innings this year would be nuts, even if the shoulder wasn't an issue. The other problem is that much of the starting pitching "depth" you list is entirely unproven at best. Given the odds, about half of those guys are probably bullpen arms in the majors. Even if you're bullish on Lester and Buchholz bouncing back this year, if you assume everything goes perfectly with Lackey's return health-wise, and if Doubront becomes more consistent than he was last year, it's pretty tough to make the argument that the Red Sox have sufficient MLB pitching depth to make it through a major league season, even if they're not trying to win a championship necessarily. Last year you could have made the argument that they had Cook, Germano, and Ohlendorf in AAA for depth, and those guys all came up and stunk, for the Sox or otherwise, after destroying the IL. All this. Plus John Lackey is a huge question mark. First, he just missed the entire 2012 season. Second, Lackey had the worst ERA in the majors among from 2010-2011. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 21:37:34 GMT -5
You are right. the sox have decent, but not great options. my point is that dempster or dickey would not solve those problems, and it would hurt the red sox for years down the road. i would them have liked to go after lower risk starters for a lower cost, with AL experience, such as mccarthy, marcum, villanueva, saunders, or baker. unfortunately, only marcum, villanueva, and sanders remain.
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Post by jmei on Dec 12, 2012 21:42:25 GMT -5
i really would like to ask cherington why we are pursuing dempster after posting an horrible 5.09 ERA in the American league last year. How would he do any better in Boston? if anything, he would be worse. In that case, you may as well bring aaron cook back! WHY WOULD YOU SIGN A 35 YEAR OLD PITCHER WHO SPORTS A 5.09 ERA IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE AND BOUND TO DO WORSE IN THE A.L. EAST?  ??!!!!!!!!!! Dempster posted a 3.86 xFIP in Texas. He has also posted four straight seasons of 200+ IP and sub-3.75 xFIPs in 2008-11, with 173 innings of 3.77 xFIP ball in 2012. For comparison, Clay Buchholz has never posted an xFIP lower than 4.04 in a full season and Aaron Cook has never posted an xFIP lower than 4.02 (and that was in 2008). Dickey won the Cy Young last year, put up a 78 ERA- between 2010-12 (sandwiched between Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain), and is amenable to an extension that would pay him $31m over the next three years. For comparison, Zach Greinke will be paid $29m in 2013 alone in salary + bonuses. Moreover, while the Mets will ask for the moon, Cherington would be borderline-negligent if he didn't stay involved in trade talks and see if Sandy Alderson significantly lowers his asking price. If the asking price falls to, say, De La Rosa and Brentz, that's about as cheap as a potentially elite starter gets in both prospects and salary in this day and age. For one, that's the same rotation which ranked 4th worst in baseball in runs allowed in 2012. Other reasons have been covered above. De La Rosa: coming off Tommy John surgery, won't pitch more than 120-140 innings in 2013 Godfrey: 46 career major league innings pitched, high-80s fastball, strikeout rate has never topped 8 K/9 in the minors. Wright: I thought you hated knuckleballers? Hernandez: See Godfrey, but a lefty and zero MLB experience Webster: Has yet to pitch a single AAA inning. Doyle: Minor league free agent with 76 career AAA innings and middling stuff Britton: zero career AAA innings, only 84 career AA innings, likely reliever Workman: See Britton, but a righty In conclusion: get a clue. |
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Post by jmei on Dec 12, 2012 21:51:16 GMT -5
You are right. the sox have decent, but not great options. my point is that dempster or dickey would not solve those problems, and it would hurt the red sox for years down the road. i would them have liked to go after lower risk starters for a lower cost, with AL experience, such as mccarthy, marcum, villanueva, saunders, or baker. unfortunately, only marcum, villanueva, and sanders remain. You mean Shaun "shoulder soreness" Marcum, Carlos "swingman, never pitched more than 125 innings" Villanueva, and Joe "career 4.48 xFIP" Saunders? I mean, none of those are terrible buy-low options (except Saunders), but Dempster and Dickey are unambiguously better. I'm not sure what "down the road" problems Dempster would pose given Boston's salary space, the likelihood that he'll end up with a two-year deal, and the lack of draft pick compensation associated with him. Dickey will have some trade cost, but I doubt Cherington would go through with a deal unless the cost is much, much lower than Bogaerts/Bradley. |
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 12, 2012 21:57:45 GMT -5
I like SIERA. Plus it add some available names to the discussion. 2010-2012, 32 years or younger, 450 ip 1 Cole Hamels 3.18 2 Clayton Kershaw 3.20 3 Felix Hernandez 3.21 4 Justin Verlander 3.24 5 Zack Greinke 3.24 6 James Shields 3.35 7 Madison Bumgarner 3.40 8 Dan Haren 3.40 9 CC Sabathia 3.41 10 Max Scherzer 3.43 11 David Price 3.44 12 Yovani Gallardo 3.46 13 Brandon Morrow 3.46 14 Mat Latos 3.48 15 Tim Lincecum Giants 3.53
16 Jered Weaver 3.58 17 Jaime Garcia 3.58 18 Jon Lester 3.59 19 Anibal Sanchez 3.67
20 Jon Niese 3.6821 Tommy Hanson 3.73 22 Ian Kennedy 3.73 23 Matt Garza 3.7524 Matt Cain 3.77 25 Doug Fister 3.78 26 Francisco Liriano 3.80 27 Gio Gonzalez 3.81 28 Shaun Marcum 3.83
29 Ricky Nolasco 3.84
30 Gavin Floyd 3.85
I bolded the players who may be available in free agency or trade. just kidding....kinda....ok, not really Seriously though, with Lincecum figuring to be a Mariner by this time next year and Marcum/ Sanchez seeming as better NL fits....maybe time to investigate Garza or Floyd as the best possible scenarios? If so, you'd be gambling on being able to sign either to a $100M deal next year..... |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 22:40:00 GMT -5
I've been able to grasp many sabermetric formulas, but I still don't understand exactly was xFIP is. What is it and how do you calculate it? I know that Dempster and Dickey are both good, but I'd prefer the Red Sox stay young. Plus, acquiring Dempster or Dickey would symbolize that we are trying to win in 2013 when there really is no chance at all.
And thank you for answering my questions. That makes a little bit of sense.
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Post by jmei on Dec 12, 2012 22:41:00 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Dec 12, 2012 23:46:54 GMT -5
I like SIERA. Plus it add some available names to the discussion. 2010-2012, 32 years or younger, 450 ip 1 Cole Hamels 3.18 2 Clayton Kershaw 3.20 3 Felix Hernandez 3.21 4 Justin Verlander 3.24 5 Zack Greinke 3.24 6 James Shields 3.35 7 Madison Bumgarner 3.40 8 Dan Haren 3.40 9 CC Sabathia 3.41 10 Max Scherzer 3.43 11 David Price 3.44 12 Yovani Gallardo 3.46 13 Brandon Morrow 3.46 14 Mat Latos 3.48 15 Tim Lincecum Giants 3.53
16 Jered Weaver 3.58 17 Jaime Garcia 3.58 18 Jon Lester 3.59 19 Anibal Sanchez 3.67
20 Jon Niese 3.6821 Tommy Hanson 3.73 22 Ian Kennedy 3.73 23 Matt Garza 3.7524 Matt Cain 3.77 25 Doug Fister 3.78 26 Francisco Liriano 3.80 27 Gio Gonzalez 3.81 28 Shaun Marcum 3.83
29 Ricky Nolasco 3.84
30 Gavin Floyd 3.85
I bolded the players who may be available in free agency or trade. just kidding....kinda....ok, not really Seriously though, with Lincecum figuring to be a Mariner by this time next year and Marcum/ Sanchez seeming as better NL fits....maybe time to investigate Garza or Floyd as the best possible scenarios? If so, you'd be gambling on being able to sign either to a $100M deal next year..... I kind of like Niese more and more. He apparently will not be too expensive (compared to Dickey). He is young and cheap. His k to walk ratio is improving. His peripheral stats have outperformed his ERA for a couple of years (until 2012 when the era came way down). |
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Post by feez732 on Dec 13, 2012 8:23:36 GMT -5
For one, that's the same rotation which ranked 4th worst in baseball in runs allowed in 2012. Other reasons have been covered above. To be fair, if you separate out the starters responsible for the remaining 1/3 of the innings last year, they were pretty much worse than Lester, Buchholz, Morales and Doubront across the board (with not one posting an ERA under 5). Obviously, expecting your best five starters to get all the starts for a season isn't realistic, but when trying to project next year's rotation's performance, I don't think factoring in a little over 300 innings of mid-5 ERA (from pitchers who won't be starting in 2013) is appropriate either. Without that 1/3 of the innings, they were right around middle of the pack by ERA, higher by FIP and even higher still by xFIP. I think the there is a very wide range of outcomes from those five starters, but I think the median projection could keep the team competitive until late in the season. |
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 13, 2012 8:37:29 GMT -5
I kind of like Niese more and more. He apparently will not be too expensive (compared to Dickey). He is young and cheap. His k to walk ratio is improving. His peripheral stats have outperformed his ERA for a couple of years (until 2012 when the era came way down). Niese is very good, but is he available without bowling the Mets over? Definitely worth checking on though. |
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Post by honkbal on Dec 13, 2012 8:49:53 GMT -5
I kind of like Niese more and more. He apparently will not be too expensive (compared to Dickey). He is young and cheap. His k to walk ratio is improving. His peripheral stats have outperformed his ERA for a couple of years (until 2012 when the era came way down). Very similar to Homer Bailey in that way and the primary reason they both missed my list, which was designed to catch guys who consistently over or under perform their peripherals to the point where it starts to look like they will always pitch that way (call it the Sieve of Nolasco). But of course, Bailey and Niese are both young enough and have probably shown enough that I probably shouldn't lump them in with certain terrible Marlins pitchers who ended up on the tail end of your SIERA-based list |
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 13, 2012 8:58:55 GMT -5
I am sort of perplexed in the desire of picking up Dempster. I guess I understand the 2 year thing, but wouldn't an Edwin Jackson on a 3-year deal make more sense in the AL East?
Now don't get me wrong, I don't even like Jackson that much, but he is still relatively young, has pitched in the AL East, has been durable, and has solid stuff.
I really don't care that much for most of the alternatives out there at this moment. My 2 favorites are off the board, Haren and McCarthy, and it is somewhat upsetting we didn't get one of them.
But Dempster?
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Post by honkbal on Dec 13, 2012 10:13:29 GMT -5
Well, Dempster and Jackson have been remarkably similar (and very average) pitchers. And I don't think there's much we can learn from Dempster's short AL stint last year or Jackson's time in the AL East (which was more than a few years ago and was spent being a very young thrower who was kind of a terrible pitcher).
If Dempster wants three years, no way--too old. But on two years? He might be able to maintain those average numbers. And it's only two years.
If Jackson wants three years (and I believe he's looking for four, but that probably isn't happening)--well, he's younger. But he's still just an average pitcher. And while that has plenty of value, I'm not sure it has the kind of value you want to lock down at market rate for three years. You'll always have the opportunity to sign an average pitcher to a short term contract at market rate, so why commit to it? But again, he is young, so it probably wouldn't explode in your face to sign him to three years either.
I guess what I'm trying to say is I wouldn't really have a strong preference between Dempster on a two year deal or Jackson for three years? But I'd probably prefer shorter years regardless of the player. Really, between Dempster, Marcum, and Jackson, I think I'd just go the route of signing whoever will take the fewest years at the least money.
(Of course, I think we can agree none of them are "elite" or "impact arms". And we all know that if you can't sign an elite pitcher you should just give up and sign Joe Saunders.)
So. Here's a question. How high of an AAV would you give Anibal Sanchez to get him on a three-four year deal?
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