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Red Sox Top 10 Prospects (BP)
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 23, 2016 11:04:23 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Feb 23, 2016 11:24:01 GMT -5
The writing is pretty funny.
Moncada: Like Homestar Runner he’s a terrific athlete with plus-plus speed, and he’s going to provide tremendous value on the bases.
Espinoza: Espinoza won’t even be old enough to buy a pack of Swishers until March
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Post by jmei on Feb 23, 2016 11:29:50 GMT -5
Good read, nothing too surprising, but well-written scouting reports.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Feb 23, 2016 11:38:19 GMT -5
One thing I always disagree with is the 55 Benintendi gets for his hit tool. The guy has a killer eye and doesn't K. He screams an easy 60 hit tool to me.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 23, 2016 12:16:29 GMT -5
Austin Rei at #10 is surprising. But there probably isn't that much of a gap between 10 and 30 right now.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 23, 2016 12:20:02 GMT -5
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but who are these pitchers with "better stuff" ranked lower than Johnson? Lakins, sure, I guess. Christopher Acosta if he's seen him, maybe. I'm getting a little bored with Johnson getting the reputation of a no-stuff all-guile-and-pitchability, seemingly because stuff is only a piece of his arsenal rather than all of it. He commands his fastball and can touch 95 with it. His curve is a legit MLB second pitch, and his changeup is also solid.
EDIT: And for what it's worth, I don't really have a problem with him at #8. I just get bugged with the "There are several pitchers in this system—both on this list and not—with better stuff than Johnson..." thing because there are maybe four and one is a phenom.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 23, 2016 12:24:34 GMT -5
Austin Rei at #10 is surprising. But there probably isn't that much of a gap between 10 and 30 right now. I was surprised Rei was even ranked by BP as he looked so over-matched at the plate the few times I saw him in Lowell. On the otherhand, Basabe is a very interesting prospect to watch as he appears to have all the tools and the power will continue to develop as he matures.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 23, 2016 13:26:53 GMT -5
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but who are these pitchers with "better stuff" ranked lower than Johnson? Lakins, sure, I guess. Christopher Acosta if he's seen him, maybe. I'm getting a little bored with Johnson getting the reputation of a no-stuff all-guile-and-pitchability, seemingly because stuff is only a piece of his arsenal rather than all of it. He commands his fastball and can touch 95 with it. His curve is a legit MLB second pitch, and his changeup is also solid. EDIT: And for what it's worth, I don't really have a problem with him at #8. I just get bugged with the "There are several pitchers in this system—both on this list and not—with better stuff than Johnson..." thing because there are maybe four and one is a phenom. Don't forget the relievers. Light's probably got two pitches that rate better than Johnson's best pitch, for example.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 23, 2016 13:28:54 GMT -5
Austin Rei at #10 is surprising. But there probably isn't that much of a gap between 10 and 30 right now. I was surprised Rei was even ranked by BP as he looked so over-matched at the plate the few times I saw him in Lowell. On the otherhand, Basabe is a very interesting prospect to watch as he appears to have all the tools and the power will continue to develop as he matures. I'll go ahead and say that Rei at 10 is plain indefensible based on what he showed on both sides of the plate in Lowell. My guess is they threw up their hands at who to put at 10 and figured he might bounce back. That said, I don't disagree with paydro's point either.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 23, 2016 13:37:08 GMT -5
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but who are these pitchers with "better stuff" ranked lower than Johnson? Lakins, sure, I guess. Christopher Acosta if he's seen him, maybe. I'm getting a little bored with Johnson getting the reputation of a no-stuff all-guile-and-pitchability, seemingly because stuff is only a piece of his arsenal rather than all of it. He commands his fastball and can touch 95 with it. His curve is a legit MLB second pitch, and his changeup is also solid. EDIT: And for what it's worth, I don't really have a problem with him at #8. I just get bugged with the "There are several pitchers in this system—both on this list and not—with better stuff than Johnson..." thing because there are maybe four and one is a phenom. Don't forget the relievers. Light's probably got two pitches that rate better than Johnson's best pitch, for example. Okay - I guess I could grant Light even though I don't totally agree - Light throws his fastball harder but he has no movement or control of it. Light's splitter might be the best pitch in the system though (along with the fastballs of Kopech and Espinoza). Which other reliever though? I'll take Johnson's stuff over Jerez, Ramirez, Hembree, etc.
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Post by jmei on Feb 23, 2016 13:45:48 GMT -5
I was surprised Rei was even ranked by BP as he looked so over-matched at the plate the few times I saw him in Lowell. On the otherhand, Basabe is a very interesting prospect to watch as he appears to have all the tools and the power will continue to develop as he matures. I'll go ahead and say that Rei at 10 is plain indefensible based on what he showed on both sides of the plate in Lowell. My guess is they threw up their hands at who to put at 10 and figured he might bounce back. They probably didn't see him much (maybe even not at all) post-draft and were relying on their pre-draft scouting reports of Rei, which were generally quite glowing.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 23, 2016 13:47:34 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Kopech's writeup sound a lot like Papelbon's from 10 years ago?
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2016 14:20:57 GMT -5
One thing I always disagree with is the 55 Benintendi gets for his hit tool. The guy has a killer eye and doesn't K. He screams an easy 60 hit tool to me. Funny, as I read through the list, that was exactly the one that really stood out to me, too. I think even 60 is pretty conservative; given his HS history and then last year's across-the-board breakout (particularly a 1:1 BB:K rate in Greenville), he's shown terrific selectivity and great bat speed with a very "planned" approach. He's a 65-70 to me, although I though the rest of his tools were pretty fairly judged (his power could be underrated, but I get why). I thought they were a little stingy with Devers's hit tool, too, but not like Benintendi.
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Post by jmei on Feb 23, 2016 14:23:59 GMT -5
Eh, I try not to get too bent out of shape if one of a guy's tools is ranked a half-grade lower than where I think it should be. I can also understand being conservative on a guy's hit tool-- it's always the toughest one to project for reasons Kiley McDaniel has written about.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2016 14:28:18 GMT -5
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but who are these pitchers with "better stuff" ranked lower than Johnson? Lakins, sure, I guess. Christopher Acosta if he's seen him, maybe. I'm getting a little bored with Johnson getting the reputation of a no-stuff all-guile-and-pitchability, seemingly because stuff is only a piece of his arsenal rather than all of it. He commands his fastball and can touch 95 with it. His curve is a legit MLB second pitch, and his changeup is also solid. EDIT: And for what it's worth, I don't really have a problem with him at #8. I just get bugged with the "There are several pitchers in this system—both on this list and not—with better stuff than Johnson..." thing because there are maybe four and one is a phenom. I'm not sure how his velocity was in Pawtucket last year, but he was only 86-89 in his start against Houston. Now, he had a long lay-off, which should've made him stronger...but if he had that underlying ulnar nerve irritation, that could've been the issue. Still, I've never seen him hit 95, and it may be that he simply can't, anymore. Of course, he still missed a good number of bats, and the command grade they slapped on him was unnecessarily conservative. But until he shows a current solid-avg or plus FB, that's the label he's keeping. Hey, it didn't keep John Tudor from being awesome, or Bruce Hurst from being really good.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2016 14:36:49 GMT -5
Eh, I try not to get too bent out of shape if one of a guy's tools is ranked a half-grade lower than where I think it should be. I can also understand being conservative on a guy's hit tool-- it's always the toughest one to project for reasons Kiley McDaniel has written about. Of course...I mean, it's all academic until the guy has 2000-2500 AB in MLB anyway. And I agree re: predictability. It just struck me as excessively conservative. Then again, predicting an A-ball player as a future .300-.310 hitter is pretty aggressive. It's always interesting to me to read lists like this because there's obviously a CW that circulates about given players, and you can see what tools/skills people value most (or critique most) and what players they do the same with, based on how closely they reflect the CW. As condescending and arrogant as I find Law much of the time, I really enjoy reading his stuff because he's fairly CW-averse, and he's not afraid to go out on a limb, and be completely wrong.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Feb 23, 2016 15:22:32 GMT -5
That was a great read. My only minor issue is Rei at number 10, but the system doesn't have a true number 10 prospect until the 2016 draft is done.
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Post by texs31 on Feb 23, 2016 16:43:35 GMT -5
This may have been mentioned in previous years, but I feel like the last spot in lists like these are often the "we were on this guy before others were" wildcard spot.
Not always but . . .
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Post by ramireja on Feb 23, 2016 17:16:25 GMT -5
Surprised nobody has mentioned the Basabe writeup yet....thats the highest I've seen someone rank him, and the writeup was rather glowing. Potential seems very high.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Feb 23, 2016 18:32:30 GMT -5
Eh, I try not to get too bent out of shape if one of a guy's tools is ranked a half-grade lower than where I think it should be. I can also understand being conservative on a guy's hit tool-- it's always the toughest one to project for reasons Kiley McDaniel has written about. Yeah completely fair, but it just makes me wonder what about his mechanics suggests it isn't plus versus the guys that have a plus hit tool. Not going to lose sleep over it or anything and I'm not criticizing the scouting at all, just curious.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 23, 2016 18:37:24 GMT -5
The part that caught my eye, aside from what's already been mentioned, is that list of talent 25 and under at the end. The Sox may not have drafted for need, but they filled their dance card in any case. Others have mentioned how balanced the system is/was with one of everything: a complete outfield, a catcher and three pitchers, and - if you throw in Sam Travis - that completes the infield. It was hard for the writer to keep from gushing about it:
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Post by tonyc on Feb 23, 2016 19:28:44 GMT -5
Regarding John Tudor's stuff, I sat next to the guy with the radar gun in Yankee stadium while he was still with the sox and he consistently hit 93-94 that day. Was heartbroken over his trade for Easler, but the silver lining was Easler, later as a batting coach taught Mo Vaugn loft, and made him into what Phil Plantier looked like he would be.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2016 23:18:50 GMT -5
Regarding John Tudor's stuff, I sat next to the guy with the radar gun in Yankee stadium while he was still with the sox and he consistently hit 93-94 that day. Was heartbroken over his trade for Easler, but the silver lining was Easler, later as a batting coach taught Mo Vaugn loft, and made him into what Phil Plantier looked like he would be. Easler had a great '85 for the Sox, too, although he faltered in '86. Tudor definitely threw pretty hard before he got traded, but he was 29 at the time and his velocity was dropping. He was still low-90s in '85 from what I remember (relatively hard for a LH then), but he was high '80s after his injury into his mid-30s, and he still mowed 'em down. I was just a kid, so I didn't really get what a mistake that trade was at the time, team-building-wise, but I remember being bummed because I saw him pitch in '82 or '83 and, because my dad was a lefty, I thought lefty pitchers must be pretty awesome. I really, really dislike trading young pitchers with upside. I think a well-run team has quality and stability up top and keeps its 4-5 spots "open" to develop young pitchers. You can't have too many holes in a rotation, but time and again, it's been shown that young players, especially pitchers, take their lumps. If you've got a solid (not even spectacular) 1-2-3, and a young-but-learning 4, you can afford a few lumps in the 5 spot. I see the 2013 Sox as a good example of what the 1-2-3-4 should look like, they just didn't have anyone from AAA to plug into the 5 spot. Of course, you need a backup plan, which is why a good swingman helps (maybe Joe Kelly this year?).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 24, 2016 0:58:53 GMT -5
Regarding John Tudor's stuff, I sat next to the guy with the radar gun in Yankee stadium while he was still with the sox and he consistently hit 93-94 that day. Was heartbroken over his trade for Easler, but the silver lining was Easler, later as a batting coach taught Mo Vaugn loft, and made him into what Phil Plantier looked like he would be. Easler had a great '85 for the Sox, too, although he faltered in '86. Tudor definitely threw pretty hard before he got traded, but he was 29 at the time and his velocity was dropping. He was still low-90s in '85 from what I remember (relatively hard for a LH then), but he was high '80s after his injury into his mid-30s, and he still mowed 'em down. I was just a kid, so I didn't really get what a mistake that trade was at the time, team-building-wise, but I remember being bummed because I saw him pitch in '82 or '83 and, because my dad was a lefty, I thought lefty pitchers must be pretty awesome. I really, really dislike trading young pitchers with upside. I think a well-run team has quality and stability up top and keeps its 4-5 spots "open" to develop young pitchers. You can't have too many holes in a rotation, but time and again, it's been shown that young players, especially pitchers, take their lumps. If you've got a solid (not even spectacular) 1-2-3, and a young-but-learning 4, you can afford a few lumps in the 5 spot. I see the 2013 Sox as a good example of what the 1-2-3-4 should look like, they just didn't have anyone from AAA to plug into the 5 spot. Of course, you need a backup plan, which is why a good swingman helps (maybe Joe Kelly this year?). Actually Easler had a strong 1984 season and struggled in 1985 before being traded for Don Baylor in spring training 1986. I always remember how his bat would be look like it was being held up like a sword when he made good contact with the ball. Tudor was a pitcher that I really liked and started the first game I ever saw at Fenway on 8/31/1980 and and I was pretty jealous when he turned into a big winner in 1985 with St. Louis when after a 1-7 start he went 20-1 before finally pitching poorly in the 7th game of the World Series. The Sox, in essence, dealt John Tudor for Mike Easler to replace a retiring Carl Yastrzemski. Bringing this topic back to the top 10, I was also kind of surprised about Rei getting the #10 spot. I probably would have went with Lakins or Light. Light could be in the bullpen by the end of the year if his command improves enough.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 24, 2016 1:34:03 GMT -5
Easler had a great '85 for the Sox, too, although he faltered in '86. Tudor definitely threw pretty hard before he got traded, but he was 29 at the time and his velocity was dropping. He was still low-90s in '85 from what I remember (relatively hard for a LH then), but he was high '80s after his injury into his mid-30s, and he still mowed 'em down. I was just a kid, so I didn't really get what a mistake that trade was at the time, team-building-wise, but I remember being bummed because I saw him pitch in '82 or '83 and, because my dad was a lefty, I thought lefty pitchers must be pretty awesome. I really, really dislike trading young pitchers with upside. I think a well-run team has quality and stability up top and keeps its 4-5 spots "open" to develop young pitchers. You can't have too many holes in a rotation, but time and again, it's been shown that young players, especially pitchers, take their lumps. If you've got a solid (not even spectacular) 1-2-3, and a young-but-learning 4, you can afford a few lumps in the 5 spot. I see the 2013 Sox as a good example of what the 1-2-3-4 should look like, they just didn't have anyone from AAA to plug into the 5 spot. Of course, you need a backup plan, which is why a good swingman helps (maybe Joe Kelly this year?). Actually Easler had a strong 1984 season and struggled in 1985 before being traded for Don Baylor in spring training 1986. I always remember how his bat would be look like it was being held up like a sword when he made good contact with the ball. Tudor was a pitcher that I really liked and started the first game I ever saw at Fenway on 8/31/1980 and and I was pretty jealous when he turned into a big winner in 1985 with St. Louis when after a 1-7 start he went 20-1 before finally pitching poorly in the 7th game of the World Series. The Sox, in essence, dealt John Tudor for Mike Easler to replace a retiring Carl Yastrzemski. Bringing this topic back to the top 10, I was also kind of surprised about Rei getting the #10 spot. I probably would have went with Lakins or Light. Light could be in the bullpen by the end of the year if his command improves enough. Ah, you're right, I was one year late. Should've remembered the Baylor trade. He killed it in '84 though, hit like .330 with high-20s HR. Rei was a bizarre pick at 10, I'm more inclined to agree with Light/Lakins/even Chavis.
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