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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 30, 2016 16:59:39 GMT -5
But I think this may ignore or minimize the fact that his presence in the line-up is a factor beyond his production. I may be the only analytics guy who actually believes in some kind of lineup protection, and I would put this factor at 0 runs. The only batter being pitched to differently is the immediately preceding hitter, and any top hitter will create the same change in approach as Papi. Yup, from the best lineup in baseball to the best by a mile. No one is arguing that he's not a great asset; the question is whether there is a need to replace him with a bat you believe is elite in order to stay competitive. The answer to that question is, um, no. Sorry to be late in responding...and perhaps repeating what others have said.....As to your post, Let's talk again this time next year. If we don't add Edwin or the like we drop lots of hrs, presence and fear....not to mention the impact of team BA just from the big man's absence. Take a .325 BA and replace it with a .260 BA... with 12 hrs...and the lineup is not nearly so intimidating. Aggravating the situation is that we are 8-32 when scoring fewer than 4 runs...which has happened much more frequently of late...especially on the road. So, if we going to decline offensively, we sure as hell need to upgrade pitching significantly in offset.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 31, 2016 16:51:36 GMT -5
With EE, he is probably viewed more as a DH type, not a Trumbo who can play an OK RF/1B. He'll be 34. That rules out most of the NL. 1/2 of the AL cannot afford this luxury. That leaves a handful of teams what will be in the mix. I don't see a 4/80 contract there. There was exactly one team in the mix for Chris Davis and he still got way more than 4/80. (The moral of the story is that EE would be smart to hire Boras.) How would our offense look this year if Papi was not in the equation? If you replaced Ortiz with a league-average hitter, the Red Sox offense would only be the #1 offense in the league this year.
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