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Bogaerts redux: What will 2016 bring?
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Post by telson13 on Jun 15, 2016 1:00:57 GMT -5
Thanks for the tip, that was a great article. Actually leaves me even more optimistic that he'll keep this up...no epiphanies, no monstrous leaps that suggest potential crashes, just incremental, consistent, constant improvement. What's crazy is that he's almost better, at just 23, than we'd all hoped/believed he would be four or so years ago.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 15, 2016 17:36:50 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2016 2:03:22 GMT -5
Only two teams in MLB history have had two players age 23 or younger with 6.0 aWAR or better seasons.
The 1955 Braves had Eddie Matthews (23, 7.4) and Henry Aaron (21, 6.05).
The 1909 Tigers had Ty Cobb (22, 9.75) and Donie Bush (21, 6.4). A RF and a SS, interestingly.
Right now, Xander is on pace for 9.1 and Mookie for 7.1.
Their seasons last year appear to be the 3rd best age 22 and younger combo, behind Cobb and Bush in 1908, and Johnny Bench and Bernie Carbo in 1970.
When you add in the fact that JBJ was part of the same 2014 rookie crop and is on a 7.0 aWAR pace, it starts to get almost silly.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 20, 2016 8:38:13 GMT -5
It's also silly that the team has 4 batters who have a reasonable chance to surpass 6 WAR. The three above and Papi.
Only 9 players in baseball did that in 2014 and 11 in 2015...
Wow
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2016 13:05:59 GMT -5
It's also silly that the team has 4 batters who have a reasonable chance to surpass 6 WAR. The three above and Papi. Only 9 players in baseball did that in 2014 and 11 in 2015... Wow Only two teams in the history of baseball have had three players put up 7.0+ bWAR seasons. The 1930 Yankees had Lou Gehrig (9.4), Babe Ruth (8.0), and Tony Lazzeri (7.8) The 1961 Tigers, in a league diluted by expansion, had Norm Cash (9.2 with a corked bat), Al Kaline (8.4), and Rocky Colavito (7.6). Right now, Bogaerts is on pace for 8.6 bWAR and Betts, Bradley, and Big Papi are all on pace for 7.9. (The list of all 6.0 WAR seasons is much, much longer ... if one of those guys doesn't end up making 7.0, I'll take a look at it then.)
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 20, 2016 13:12:14 GMT -5
Given good health and the expected development of Moncada and Benny. We should be pretty damn good for quite a while.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 20, 2016 13:39:58 GMT -5
It's also silly that the team has 4 batters who have a reasonable chance to surpass 6 WAR. The three above and Papi. Only 9 players in baseball did that in 2014 and 11 in 2015... Wow Only two teams in the history of baseball have had three players put up 7.0+ bWAR seasons. The 1930 Yankees had Lou Gehrig (9.4), Babe Ruth (8.0), and Tony Lazzeri (7.8) The 1961 Tigers, in a league diluted by expansion, had Norm Cash (9.2 with a corked bat), Al Kaline (8.4), and Rocky Colavito (7.6). Right now, Bogaerts is on pace for 8.6 bWAR and Betts, Bradley, and Big Papi are all on pace for 7.9. (The list of all 6.0 WAR seasons is much, much longer ... if one of those guys doesn't end up making 7.0, I'll take a look at it then.) What's interesting is that the Sox have cooled off some overall, tied to down periods for JBJ, Shaw, and Hanley. Bogaerts, Papi, and Pedroia have been steady and Betts has gotten hot. Overall they've stayed fairly consistent, which is why they don't *NEED* a pitcher, IMHO. I like their top three, and the odds they can piece together the rest. And if the offense gets hot again, watch out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2016 15:17:20 GMT -5
First 8 games after their hitting streaks ended:
.172 / .314 / .345, JBJ .176 / .216 / .206, Pedey .429 / .459 / .657, X
JBJ stayed more or less cold for a total of 17 games. Pedey is still in progress. X actually did have a 5-game swoon (.250 / .318 / .300), but is .432 / .475 / .703 in the 9 games since.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 17, 2016 14:32:36 GMT -5
So, what do we make of Xander's tough 2nd half so far?
1st Half 8.6 BB% 14.7 K% .329/.388/.475 (.863 OPS) 131 wRC+, .369 BABIP over 394 PA 2nd Half 3.8 BB% 18.3 K% .262/.305/.385 (.691 OPS) 81 wRC+, .295 BABIP over 131 PA August 3.5 BB% 19.3 K% .173/.228/.173 (.401 OPS) 4 wRC+, .214 BABIP over 57 PA
August has been particularly rough... He seems to be guessing and waving at a lot of stuff at the plate, and even seems off in the field at times. Just a BABIP correction? Normal wear and tear? Small sample noise? Something different? His 2nd half line is perfectly fine for an SS, but quite a dropoff from his previous numbers. He's still top 20 positionally in fWAR, so perhaps I'm grabbing at thin air here, but hopefully he stabilizes soon. From the eye test, he seems to be making more off-barrell contact on pitches in the zone (leading to popups/groundouts), and swinging/missing at more pitches outside of the zone. Perhaps his O-Zone% and Z-Zone% would be more illuminating if that's what is going on, but I know less about those stats.
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 17, 2016 16:02:56 GMT -5
Yeah I think he may be hurting more than he's letting on. It's been a defensive and offensive slide. Hope it's just a blip, though.
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