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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 22:07:18 GMT -5
There has been much debate on who will be the starting shortstop for the Sox in 2013? Who will it be? For internal options, they have Iglesias and Ciriaco. In my opinion, you need at least two above-average tools to be a major league starter. Those five tools are: Hitting Ability, Power Hitting Ability, Running Ability, Fielding Ability, Throwing Ability. Let's break down how Ciriaco and Iglesias are in terms of their skills on a 20/80 scale. These are just my estimates, I'm not sure what they really are. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Iglesias: Hit- 30/80 Power- 20/80 Run- 60/80 Field- 80/80 Throw- 80/80 Ciriaco: Hit- 40/80 Power- 20/80 Run- 70/80 Field- 50/80 Throw- 50/80 50 is considered major league average. So considering this, Iglesias has three above-average tools (Run, Speed, Throw) and thus could be considered a MLB starter. Unfortunately, none of those tools are the ability to hit. Ciriaco only has one above-average tool (speed) and thus qualifies as a bench player. Then again, Ciriaco has three average tools (Hit, Field, Throw) which gives some reason that he should start. Because of Ciriaco's low walk rate though and considering he cooled down at the end of the season, he is bound to regress offensively, so I gave him a 40/80. Iglesias is great defensively and is Gold Glove caliber. Yet he can't hit. (Yet, at least) He is fun to watch in the field and there is no question about his ability there. Overall, I hope he starts. Check out this video on his Defense: The SS free agent market is very limited, so I don't have much to say about this. Stephen Drew and Alex Gonzalez are basically the best options. The trade market has options at SS though. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie are options. The asking price for Cabrera would be outlandish for a rebuilding team like the Red Sox and it is unlikely that the Sox and Lowrie will reunite. Utility man Eduardo Nunez of the Yankees is also an option. He plays SS, 3B, and 2B, along with the ability to run and get on base and it probably wouldn't take much to get him. However, this trade is also unlikely considering Jeter may be out to begin the season and the Yankees will need a SS. There may be more options, I'm just not sure what they would be. These are some options at SS that I have thought of and let me know your ideas.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2012 22:12:29 GMT -5
Nobody (in the media that is) has suggested Ciriaco will start at short, and with good reason - he won't. He's a good option for the bench given his glove and speed, but nothing more. It's Iglesias or an external option like Drew or a trade for someone like Cabrera.
Personally, I want Iglesias to get a shot, but he's been my binky since I first saw him take infield, so I will admit a complete lack of objectivity there. I admit that I just want to see him play defense over a full MLB season. But anyway, I'm just not sure there's a better option out there unless the price for Cabrera is acceptable, particularly given the number of other holes this team needs to work on filling, even still.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 22:23:52 GMT -5
I don't think Ciriaco will start and I don't want him too. I want Iglesias to start. Brendan Ryan for the Mariners hit less than .200 and had a WAR of 3.3 mostly because of his defensive ability. Iglesias could be like that. He is fun to watch afield and he is always making great plays.
There may be some way to figure out how many runs the Sox would be sacrificing by starting Iglesias. This could be done by using some sort of Run Differential Formula with Runs Created and Defensive Runs Saved with Iglesias and then comparing it to a league-average offensive SS. Maybe then, you could figure out how many runs the Sox would be sacrificing by starting Iglesias.
I hope the Sox will give him a shot. He will offer great defense, and hopefully hit bat can develop. Plus, if Iglesias doesn't pan out at all, Bogaerts isn't that far away if he can stay at short.
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Post by jmei on Dec 12, 2012 22:24:59 GMT -5
Pedro " worst plate discipline in the major leagues" Ciriaco is a decent present player and a capable bench option, but he might be one of the worst offensive options in the league when his bloop hits aren't falling. The difference between he and Iglesias is that Iglesias has a fair bit of offensive upside, at least relative to his present performance. Resident scout Chris Mellen has noted that he has quick wrists and plus bat speed and could hit in the .280s during his peak seasons ( link). Remember, Iglesias is only 22, and while he looks ugly at the plate now, he has the potential to improve-- it just takes patience.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Dec 12, 2012 23:18:24 GMT -5
Iglesias in his last option year .... the best alternative to start. But what is plan B if it just cannot be continued and the Sox are a .450 team?
= Xander going on 40-man some time between July and Nov. = Sutton, DeJesus: backups
Iglesias, they will pinch-hit for him often and if he bunts often, ABs will be fewer than 350 for a #9 hitter. I hope he can bunt.
But if Xander, Iglesias, Ciriaco all disappoint and the Sox are not competing, what then? .450 teams don't do mid-season acquisitions. The answer: Pokey Reese.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 12, 2012 23:43:56 GMT -5
If the Red Sox aren't competing it won't be because of SS production, and if they aren't competing anyway does it really matter who's playing short?
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Post by jioh on Dec 13, 2012 7:00:54 GMT -5
This is not exactly on topic, but with what is in effect he trade of "can he hit enough" SS Didi Gregorius for 2011 #3 pick Bauer, I like to wonder which of these guys can be useful trade chips in the short or less short term: Jose Vinicio, Deven Marrero, Tzu-Wei Lin, Cleuluis Rondon, Raymel Flores, Wendell Rijo. I can also see a 2016 keystone combo of say, Lin and Rijo.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 13, 2012 8:43:10 GMT -5
Count me in as someone who is really excited about the opportunity that Iglesias has this season. I, too, love watching him in the field. Our staff will feel a lot more secure with the idea of having him behind them.
There is absolutely no reason he shouldn't get 4 months or so to show what he can do. A season, where we are far from being the "favorite" is perfect.
I'm so pleased the front office decided to let him NOT play this off-season and concentrate on getting stronger. I'm not sure about that .280 average, but I do have the confidence he will eventually be adequate.......say .260 to .270.
There are so few players on our team presently that you stop whatever you are doing to totally focus on when involved with the action. I look forward to when we are in the field, and I keep hoping..........hit it to the kid!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2012 9:48:53 GMT -5
This is not exactly on topic, but with what is in effect he trade of "can he hit enough" SS Didi Gregorius for 2011 #3 pick Bauer, I like to wonder which of these guys can be useful trade chips in the short or less short term: Jose Vinicio, Deven Marrero, Tzu-Wei Lin, Cleuluis Rondon, Raymel Flores, Wendell Rijo. I can also see a 2016 keystone combo of say, Lin and Rijo. Given the questions we've been hearing about Bauer's attitude, I'm not sure you can look at this deal like that. It doesn't make any sense on Arizona's end unless you account for a) the fact that they really wanted to unload Bauer, and b) that Towers really valued Gregorius. It's not really a situation you can count on happening again.
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Post by jdb on Dec 13, 2012 9:49:03 GMT -5
I dont know if its been mentioned but Gammons tweeted last week Iglesias has been training in Arizona with Pedroia. I am more than fine seeing what he can do given the chance. Also like others have said with Xander looking like he can be ready in 2014 if Igesias can prove he isnt an automatic out he could have a good bit of value on the trade market. Maybe that happens and Xander can hold down SS until somebody in the low minors is ready.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 13, 2012 10:50:45 GMT -5
Don't pay too much attention to where certain players are training in the offseason. API (Athlete's Performance Institute) in Arizona is one of a small handful of excellent gyms across the country, but it's also convenient since many athletes live in Arizona in the offseason. Training with Pedroia isn't going to make Iglesias' walk rate 9%. At best, he'll be healthy and stronger than he was last year.
Sometimes the gym doesn't matter, either. Last offseason Youkilis trained with Eric Cressey at CP in the Boston area. I would consider Cressey to be the premier baseball strength coach in the country. It didn't help Youk have a fantastic season, did it?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2012 11:38:51 GMT -5
Sometimes the gym doesn't matter, either. Last offseason Youkilis trained with Eric Cressey at CP in the Boston area. I would consider Cressey to be the premier baseball strength coach in the country. It didn't help Youk have a fantastic season, did it? Getting a touch off-topic here, but it's totally possible that he had a better season than he otherwise would have, though. I mean, it's pretty clear that Youkilis's body has been breaking down for three years now, so it seems quite possible that Cressey's program helped to slow that down. Anyhow, back on the main topic. I really really like Iglesias. Sure, he defense is amazing. He might be the best defensive shortstop alive right now, which, considering the mediocre offense the average shortstop produces right now, is enough to give him the every day job. I also remain (relatively) bullish on his offense, though. He doesn't drive the ball as well as I'd like, but he has a pretty solid approach at the plate - unlike Ciriaco, Iglesias goes up there with an idea of what he's looking to do, he just doesn't execute it well enough yet. It's possible that will never come around, but it's a good sign. More importantly, Iglesias has the sort of natural hand-eye coordination that you just can't learn. That's where the Ozzie Smith comparisons come from. He makes contact at a high rate, the problem is that it just doesn't go anywhere. Iglesias just doesn't drive the ball, at all. His swing is going to produce a horrendously weak BABIP, and watching him hit meek ground balls to the second baseman all season long is going to get frustrating, and may even result on the Red Sox giving up on him. They shouldn't. Given the weak nature of the position, the quality of players available, and the sort of limbo the Red Sox are in as a contender, I think the best case is to try Iglesias out. I'm not always on board with the "play all of the kids!" mentality, but the development points remaining for Iglesias aren't necessarily the ones he can reach at Pawtucket. He just needs to hit the ball harder. Even if he doesn't, I think he can put up a line like .250/.300/.290 at the major league level right now. Again, that'll be frustrating to watch, but it's enough that his defense will make him an overall plus player.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Dec 13, 2012 12:21:41 GMT -5
Ciriaco crushes the Yankees so we need to keep him. I'd rotate Ciriaco and Iglesias, until Iglesias can hit above .250. I am actually a fan of Ciriaco, but not as an everyday starter.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2012 12:26:11 GMT -5
Even if Ciriaco crushing the Yankees wasn't a (totally awesome) statistical fluke, the Red Sox still have those other 144 games to worry about.
I would actually like Ciriaco as a backup to a Stephen Drew/Mark Bellhorn type, where he could be used as a defensive replacement, pinch runner, and platoon partner whenever the ground balliest pitcher on the staff is going, but he's kind of redundant with Iglesias around.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 13, 2012 13:16:12 GMT -5
Sometimes the gym doesn't matter, either. Last offseason Youkilis trained with Eric Cressey at CP in the Boston area. I would consider Cressey to be the premier baseball strength coach in the country. It didn't help Youk have a fantastic season, did it? Getting a touch off-topic here, but it's totally possible that he had a better season than he otherwise would have, though. I mean, it's pretty clear that Youkilis's body has been breaking down for three years now, so it seems quite possible that Cressey's program helped to slow that down. Anyhow, back on the main topic. I really really like Iglesias. Sure, he defense is amazing. He might be the best defensive shortstop alive right now, which, considering the mediocre offense the average shortstop produces right now, is enough to give him the every day job. I also remain (relatively) bullish on his offense, though. He doesn't drive the ball as well as I'd like, but he has a pretty solid approach at the plate - unlike Ciriaco, Iglesias goes up there with an idea of what he's looking to do, he just doesn't execute it well enough yet. It's possible that will never come around, but it's a good sign. More importantly, Iglesias has the sort of natural hand-eye coordination that you just can't learn. That's where the Ozzie Smith comparisons come from. He makes contact at a high rate, the problem is that it just doesn't go anywhere. Iglesias just doesn't drive the ball, at all. His swing is going to produce a horrendously weak BABIP, and watching him hit meek ground balls to the second baseman all season long is going to get frustrating, and may even result on the Red Sox giving up on him. . Which is a argument that in his case, the offseason strength training might actually be more beneficial than for someone like Big Papi. I also thought I read somewhere that he was also going to spend some time this offseason working on his hitting with Ortiz. At this point, neither of of these can hurt.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 13, 2012 19:48:59 GMT -5
It appears that unless we grab Drew or a facsimile, Iglesias gets the nod out of spring training. As poorly as he hit in Boston, he can't possibly be that bad in 2013. Last year gave him a chance to fail without it counting much...a baptismal.
What does surprise me is that despite the time that has been devoted to his hitting (hasn't there?), he seems off-balance a lot. If so, is this because he is unable to identify pitches/spin early enough and/or has little idea what pitches might be thrown in what counts...i.e. low baseball intellect or aptitude. If this is so, can't this be improved???
I have often thought that players otherwise relaxing on the bench should be assigned the task of predicting, pitch to pitch, what an opposing hurler would throw to a given batter....at least in the minors. This could focus awareness.
It might also be useful to have each player do a self-assessment on how an opposing pitcher could best get him out considering counts as well as what he envisioned another team's scouting report might be on him. These practices might help laser in on weaknesses and make a player more aware of at bat/game situations and how he might be attacked.. While not being a "guess hitter" he could be more aware of what to expect pitch to pitch and perhaps improve speed of recognition and likely location.
Do the Sox do these things?
If not, can we contact Alcor and try to clone Ted Williams....at least for the purposes of being an insightful (not just see ball, hit ball) hitting instructor?
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2012 20:14:20 GMT -5
What does surprise me is that despite the time that has been devoted to his hitting (hasn't there?), he seems off-balance a lot. If so, is this because he is unable to identify pitches/spin early enough and/or has little idea what pitches might be thrown in what counts...i.e. low baseball intellect or aptitude. If this is so, can't this be improved??? I have often thought that players otherwise relaxing on the bench should be assigned the task of predicting, pitch to pitch, what an opposing hurler would throw to a given batter....at least in the minors. This could focus awareness. It might also be useful to have each player do a self-assessment on how an opposing pitcher could best get him out considering counts as well as what he envisioned another team's scouting report might be on him. These practices might help laser in on weaknesses and make a player more aware of at bat/game situations and how he might be attacked.. While not being a "guess hitter" he could be more aware of what to expect pitch to pitch and perhaps improve speed of recognition and likely location. Do the Sox do these things? If not, can we contact Alcor and try to clone Ted Williams....at least for the purposes of being an insightful (not just see ball, hit ball) hitting instructor? I've said this before and I'll say it again-- pitch recognition and plate discipline is rarely about "intellect" or "aptitude." Trying to see the spin and trajectory of a 9 inch ball as it travels 93 mph towards you is incredibly difficult and it takes great vision, reflexes, and quick-twitch muscles to be able to (a) determine what pitch it is, (b) determine whether it is a strike, and (c) on the basis of (a) and (b), decide whether to swing in less than half a second. Yes, there are ways to improve plate discipline (drills involving picking up seams, training eye levels, etc.), but those are no panacea and many hitters never improve despite a lot of invested time and energy. Quite frankly, you're not giving enough respect to the training and development staff if you think that teaching Iglesias a little about game theory is enough to turn him into Kevin Youkilis at the plate.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2012 17:48:53 GMT -5
I would not be opposed to seeing how much it would take to sign Nakajima. He seems like a much cheaper (and more durable) alternative to Stephen Drew. That would at least prevent the team from putting all the eggs in the Iglesias basket. If Iglesias shows he can hit, Nakajima ould play the role of supersub (the the Yankees envisioned for him when they won the posting last year).
Edited
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 14, 2012 18:05:47 GMT -5
I would not be opposed to seeing how much it would take to sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka. He seems like a much cheaper (and more durable) alternative to Stephen Drew. That would at least prevent the team from putting all the eggs in the Iglesias basket. If Iglesias shows he can hit, Tsuyoshi Nishioka could play the role of supersub (the the Yankees envisioned for him when they won the posting last year). Hiroyuki Nakajima that is. Nishioko was the former Twins short stop and he was bad.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 14, 2012 19:33:24 GMT -5
What does surprise me is that despite the time that has been devoted to his hitting (hasn't there?), he seems off-balance a lot. If so, is this because he is unable to identify pitches/spin early enough and/or has little idea what pitches might be thrown in what counts...i.e. low baseball intellect or aptitude. If this is so, can't this be improved??? I have often thought that players otherwise relaxing on the bench should be assigned the task of predicting, pitch to pitch, what an opposing hurler would throw to a given batter....at least in the minors. This could focus awareness. It might also be useful to have each player do a self-assessment on how an opposing pitcher could best get him out considering counts as well as what he envisioned another team's scouting report might be on him. These practices might help laser in on weaknesses and make a player more aware of at bat/game situations and how he might be attacked.. While not being a "guess hitter" he could be more aware of what to expect pitch to pitch and perhaps improve speed of recognition and likely location. Do the Sox do these things? If not, can we contact Alcor and try to clone Ted Williams....at least for the purposes of being an insightful (not just see ball, hit ball) hitting instructor? I've said this before and I'll say it again-- pitch recognition and plate discipline is rarely about "intellect" or "aptitude." Trying to see the spin and trajectory of a 9 inch ball as it travels 93 mph towards you is incredibly difficult and it takes great vision, reflexes, and quick-twitch muscles to be able to (a) determine what pitch it is, (b) determine whether it is a strike, and (c) on the basis of (a) and (b), decide whether to swing in less than half a second. Yes, there are ways to improve plate discipline (drills involving picking up seams, training eye levels, etc.), but those are no panacea and many hitters never improve despite a lot of invested time and energy. Quite frankly, you're not giving enough respect to the training and development staff if you think that teaching Iglesias a little about game theory is enough to turn him into Kevin Youkilis at the plate. jmei, my man...I am a lifelong Sox baseball fan but admittedly not privy to the intricacies of their teaching/training methods if any and if they are valid/consistent. If there are 5% of the readers here that are, I would be surprised and pay them homage. Where is the basis affording me (and others) the ability to give "respect to the training and development staff"? It does not exist except in 'faith'. Baseball has a zillion new, arcane stats that purport to (if one has access to Univac and an electron microscope) uncover otherwise hidden value to gain advantage. I say, why the hell don't we (the Sox) put equal or more focus on finding teaching/training techniques to maximally develop player potential? To me this is the new (old) frontier! rather than inventing ever more 'definitive' stats (the current fashion). I recall in years gone by a number of Sox minor league pitchers, following trade, saying that their new team gave them their first actual instruction in organized baseball. How terribly damning! It reinforced my long-held belief that baseball was the most anachronistic of major sports given the societal advance of technology and instruction. The Sox, to me, were very notable laggards among their brethren in this area. With the advent of current ownership, I hoped that the age-old chains might be broken...No longer would it be the good ol' boy 'hey, let them play...if they have talent, they will make it' kind of thing. I hoped that we might be 'Billy Beane' across the board not only recognizing 'lights hidden under the statistical bushel' but developing them. Now jmei be fair. I did not say hitting was about "intellect" as you selectively culled. I said "baseball intellect" and by extension, ' baseball aptitude". I have read your stuff. You are better than that. Certainly I understand that hitting a baseball at 93 mph and judging spin/location in less than .5 second are difficult. But you seem to be saying that there are limits to training techniques. In essence then, you feel that either a player has it or not..."the cream will rise". I find this to be the epitome of "old school" thinking. I believe that the Sox can do better.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2012 19:49:51 GMT -5
Sarasoxer, I'm not going to lie - whatever your point is, unless it's "the Red Sox need to try harder at developing players" (in which case, I'm not sure where you're coming from), it's not coming through at all.
jmei didn't take your post out of context. You seemed to be confusing "pitch recognition" with something that I'll oversimplify as "being a smart baseball player." Guessing pitches isn't pitch recognition. His point is that pitch recognition is actually visually recognizing the pitch and reacting, something akin to a physical skill that, sometimes, all the teaching in the world isn't going to help. This is pretty much the primary reason why you or I aren't major league baseball players. You did not seem to understand this point in your first post and it kind of doesn't look like you do above either. Maybe you do and it's not coming through for some reason.
As for this idea of coming up with ways to develop players.. that's kind of the point of a farm system. It's not like they don't try to improve their development techniques. It seems like you're confusing what people who write about baseball or post on message boards do with what teams do. Of course they're trying to improve their development techniques. Is that not something that's understood to be true?
I'd love to hear about any of these minor league pitchers you refer to, presuming those are post-2003, as that's news to me. And if they're not, I'm not sure why that's relevant.
Again, maybe we're missing something here, but it's not like just because a player doesn't reach his ceiling it means the club screwed up developing him. Otherwise every team in baseball would be doing a terrible job developing players.
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Post by pbgallag on Dec 14, 2012 21:42:53 GMT -5
Don't pay too much attention to where certain players are training in the offseason. API (Athlete's Performance Institute) in Arizona is one of a small handful of excellent gyms across the country, but it's also convenient since many athletes live in Arizona in the offseason. Training with Pedroia isn't going to make Iglesias' walk rate 9%. At best, he'll be healthy and stronger than he was last year. Sometimes the gym doesn't matter, either. Last offseason Youkilis trained with Eric Cressey at CP in the Boston area. I would consider Cressey to be the premier baseball strength coach in the country. It didn't help Youk have a fantastic season, did it? I think API in the offseason certainly counts for something. That it could potentially be duplicated in another state doesn't diminish that. Compared to playing winter ball, working out at home, and not working out at all, I would say it's likely to yield better results on the field. Pedroia and Youkilis both became much better offensively and defensively as a result of all the offseason work they put in at API. For Iglesias I think spending time at API bodes well for his chances to become acceptable offensively. If Lackey, Beckett, and Lester spent their offseasons at API they probably would have fared better the last two years. If I were Cherington I would start writing it into free agent contracts. It's amazing that Lackey can collect close to $100M as a professional athlete and not be required to stay in shape.
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Post by jmei on Dec 14, 2012 21:44:37 GMT -5
Certainly I understand that hitting a baseball at 93 mph and judging spin/location in less than .5 second are difficult. But you seem to be saying that there are limits to training techniques. In essence then, you feel that either a player has it or not..."the cream will rise". I find this to be the epitome of "old school" thinking. That's exactly what I'm saying. Just like no amount of weightlifting will transform Jose Iglesias into Barry Bonds, no amount of pitch charting will transform him into Kevin Youkilis. Yes, players can improve their plate discipline through training and practice, but it won't work for all players because many lack the necessary visual acuity and elite hand-eye coordination, and these are physical attributes like speed or strength that you can improve, but will find difficult to completely overhaul. You can bet the FO has spent lots of time drilling the importance of plate discipline to Iglesias and put him through many exercises meant to help him get there, and the fact that he hasn't improved much to date shouldn't be taken as an indictment on the competency of the development staff. My broader point is that given the lack of information about how the Red Sox player development staff does their work and the lack of research on how they ought to do their work, it's almost impossible to have an intelligent discussion on the subject. Moreover, the only reports we do hear are generally pretty complimentary of how the Red Sox develop players-- think about the shoulder-strengthening program and the emphasis on developing plate discipline.
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Post by jioh on Dec 14, 2012 22:29:30 GMT -5
[quote author=jmei board=general thread=322 post=7771 time=1355447660... I've said this before and I'll say it again-- pitch recognition and plate discipline is rarely about "intellect" or "aptitude." Trying to see the spin and trajectory of a 9 inch ball as it travels 93 mph towards you is incredibly difficult and it takes great vision, reflexes, and quick-twitch muscles to be able to (a) determine what pitch it is, (b) determine whether it is a strike, and (c) on the basis of (a) and (b), decide whether to swing in less than half a second.
.... [/quote]
But the funny part about this is that this is a person who in the field seems to have "great vision, reflexes, and quick-twitch muscles." Is there no similarity between the tasks of tracking a batted ball and a thrown ball?
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Post by welovewally on Dec 15, 2012 8:02:37 GMT -5
So far this year the Red Sox haven't done anything to make this team competitive for a playoff spot so there is no reason to start anybody other then Iglesias at SS. I doubt he hits even 220 but what's it going to matter.
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