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Red Sox sign Dempster: 2-year, $26.5 million
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Post by Matt Huegel on Dec 13, 2012 10:26:54 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal reporting they're close. Dempster's put up good numbers in the NL, but played most of his career there and is 35. Fastball averaged 89.6 last season per Fangraphs. He has potential to be an innings eater, but definitely scares me in the AL East. I just hope it's for no more than two years.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 13, 2012 10:31:44 GMT -5
No way they go beyond two years, right?
I'm betting 2/26 with a token vesting/mutual option?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 13, 2012 10:33:58 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal reporting they're close. Dempster's put up good numbers in the NL, but played most of his career there and is 35. Fastball averaged 89.6 last season per Fangraphs. He has potential to be an innings eater, but definitely scares me in the AL East. I just hope it's for no more than two years. How many innings do you think he'll eat if he's giving up 5 runs in the first 3 innings of every start in the AL East? This is of course just a hypothetical based on the facts you stated above, along with my eyes and experience telling me this guy will be eminently hittable. Meanwhile, better, younger arms still out there (Sanchez, Jackson) and despite their years demands, no one has stepped up to provide said years or dollars yet. The market is still playing out. Why do this now?
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Post by kindasweaty on Dec 13, 2012 10:39:15 GMT -5
The market is still playing out. Why do this now? Because this won't stop them from still getting Sanchez or anyone else. In fact, it might help them in that they'll be going to a better team.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 13, 2012 10:42:01 GMT -5
Meanwhile, better, younger arms still out there (Sanchez, Jackson) and despite their years demands, no one has stepped up to provide said years or dollars yet. The market is still playing out. Why do this now? Well, Jackson is younger, but there's very little evidence that he's better than Dempster, and they probably got the impression he wouldn't sign for close to whatever this deal ends up being. And I'm not sure that this deal, whatever it ends up being, stops them from pursuing Sanchez if they think they can get him for a reasonable cost.
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Post by bsout2 on Dec 13, 2012 11:00:49 GMT -5
If the Red Sox can get it done with two years then I love it. If they have to go three years I will be a little less thrilled. He may not be great, but it will give the Res Sox depth which they need.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 13, 2012 11:01:32 GMT -5
Dempster is a nice stopgap.
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Post by tjb21 on Dec 13, 2012 11:10:43 GMT -5
Dempster is a nice stopgap. I agree. I don't think he's brilliant, but he's definitely above average. I'm interested in seeing the total money involved though.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 13, 2012 11:15:17 GMT -5
Probably not a bad pick-up if for 2 years. After that Papi, Dempster and Lackey will likely be gone and we will have some powder at least from those sources. I can't see us opting for Sanchez given the apparent yrs./money demands and our new philosophy. I just hope that we don't get paid a visit by Mr. Applegate.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 13, 2012 11:23:23 GMT -5
He has been an innings eater. Has had league average walk rates over the last few years. Dempster. A guy that relies on splitters and sliders instead of a fastball. Not my first choice, due mostly to age. I will reserve judgment until I see how the details of this contract and compare it to the contract the Edwin Jackson signs.
I do not see Sanchez as a real possibility. Sanchez wants more money and years than he is worth, IMO.
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 13, 2012 11:45:54 GMT -5
It was rumored that the sox offered him 2x26 earlier in the offseason... is 13 mil a year ben's only offer to free agents? This looks to be lining up as 2x26 with an option to bring the deal to 3x36 naturally.
Overall... I like the way the team is balancing the present without sacrificing the future. We have very stiff competition in the division for next year and we will need a lot of luck to truly compete. I think this is a wise way to operate while the team retools.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2012 11:54:13 GMT -5
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Post by remember04 on Dec 13, 2012 11:56:46 GMT -5
With the money and years getting thrown around I'm starting to wonder if we should've offered Dice-K a qualifying offer? If he turned it down we get a pick and if not we're stuck with him for one year which may be better than be stuck with Dempster for two or maybe even three years at about the same AAV.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2012 11:58:53 GMT -5
With the signing of Victorino and the pursuit of Dempster, I kind of wonder if off-field qualities are influencing the front office some. I generally try not to talk too much about that kind of "soft" analysis. Personalities interact in different ways with different teams, and winning certainly influences chemistry more than the other way around - see any team that Johnny Damon has ever been on. It's impossible to analyze, objectively, the impact someone's personal constitution will have on a team, and it's the sort of thing that lends itself to overly simplified post hoc answers. i.e. "the Red Sox lost because John Lackey and Josh Beckett are big fat jerks who eat beer and drink chicken. But we still like Jon Lester so he's cool."
However, that doesn't mean personality has NO effect on a team, and it also doesn't mean that working with a team that's got a bunch of disagreeable or incompatible personalities doesn't take its toll on management. So, I wonder if Victorino and Dempster - by all accounts, two of the most solid dudes in the league - are the Red Sox attempt at addressing that in some way. If it costs a couple million more to add players who help the team AND make it a more positive environment, maybe, given the way the team has been constituted the last couple of years, that's worth it.
I should say that I'm not endorsing that approach, nor do I have any insight into whether that would work. I just find it interesting.
Dempster is a great interview though, and a funny guy. He's an easy one to root for.
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Post by jluna09 on Dec 13, 2012 12:08:27 GMT -5
Welcome to Boston Matt Clement!! Sorry, I ment Ryan Dempster
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 13, 2012 12:08:56 GMT -5
He's only slightly worse than Sanchez and we're going to get him for 1/3 the commitment. No-brainer really.
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2012 12:09:38 GMT -5
Despite his declining velocity (89.7 mph in 2012), Dempster gets a fair amount of swings and misses. His 2012 swinging strike rate of 10.4% (career 10.8%) was higher than Zack Greinke (8.5%, career 8.8%), Anibal Sanchez (9.8%, career 9.6%), Jon Lester (8.7%, 9.2% career) and Clay Buchholz (8.3%, 9.2% career). In fact, Dempster's swinging strike rate ranked 15th in the major leagues in 2012, between Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale. Between 2010-12, Dempster's 10.2% swinging strike rate ranked 22nd in the majors, between Josh Johnson and Johan Santana (and ahead of Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, and Dan Haren, among others). Look, I know Dempster doesn't get a lot of velocity in his fastball, but he's elite at getting hitters to swing-and-miss at his secondary stuff. Hitters really struggled to make contact on his pitches outside the zone in 2012 (11th best in the majors), and while he only got them to swing at those pitches at an average rate (45th out of 88 qualified pitchers), that ability to get swings-and-misses will translate to the AL East. His strikeout rate translated well to the AL in his brief stint in Texas, and there's no reason to think that it will disappear all of a sudden, especially given his reliance on plus breaking pitches rather than a declining fastball to get swings-and-misses. Dempster's age is a concern, but this deal will almost certainly be for two years, and he's presently about as good as Jackson and only a little worse than Sanchez ( here is a comparison of the three of them from 2010-12). Assuming an AAV in the $12-14m range, this is a solid signing for a middle-of-the-rotation starter on a short deal, which is pretty much exactly what the team needs.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 13, 2012 12:12:19 GMT -5
It was rumored that the sox offered him 2x26 earlier in the offseason... is 13 mil a year ben's only offer to free agents? This looks to be lining up as 2x26 with an option to bring the deal to 3x36 naturally. Overall... I like the way the team is balancing the present without sacrificing the future. We have very stiff competition in the division for next year and we will need a lot of luck to truly compete. I think this is a wise way to operate while the team retools. Couldn't agree more. A few more things to consider: - Teams are just familiarizing themselves with how the new CBA plays out in the marketplace for FA talent.
- The restrictions on the draft will have an influence on GM thought processes now and in the future.
- New restrictions on international players will also be come into play in the future and they will change the market also.
Moving a little more cautiously seems like a good idea. I haven't agreed with all the moves as I feel that Victorino brings less to the team than Bradley would even without additional time in the minors. Nonetheless, I'd give them a B+ grade so far. They've restrained their spending somewhat while, as you say, giving some thought to what will be a very tough slog in the Division, all without sacrificing the talent in the minors. They're sticking to that plan and I have to commend them for it. Edit: ...and, as others have pointed out, they may not be done. Cherrington did say he expected they'd top out near the cap. There are potential swaps out there also. That grade may yet rise (or fall?).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2012 12:16:18 GMT -5
With the money and years getting thrown around I'm starting to wonder if we should've offered Dice-K a qualifying offer? If he turned it down we get a pick and if not we're stuck with him for one year which may be better than be stuck with Dempster for two or maybe even three years at about the same AAV. Fair question, but a) I think he might've taken it, in which case the team would've been stuck with an inferior pitcher at that price, or b) if he didn't, it would've killed his market entirely and backfired.
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2012 12:16:19 GMT -5
With the money and years getting thrown around I'm starting to wonder if we should've offered Dice-K a qualifying offer? If he turned it down we get a pick and if not we're stuck with him for one year which may be better than be stuck with Dempster for two or maybe even three years at about the same AAV. I can't tell if you're serious or not. Since 2007, Daisuke has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the major leagues. From 2008-2012, with 400 min. innings pitched, he's 10th worst in the majors in xFIP. It's unclear at this point whether he'll get a guaranteed contract this offseason and even if it does, it will be a one-year deal at $5m or less. It is frankly insulting to Dempster to compare him to Matsusaka.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 13, 2012 12:17:01 GMT -5
Again the Sox are doing what they can with a limited FA talent pool. ...signing guys short term, perhaps having to overpay but leveraging their bucks to do so, preserving the farm and making max effort to create a winning, good-guy club-house atmosphere. Those are the things they can control in a less-than-perfect world.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 13, 2012 12:25:44 GMT -5
The market is still playing out. Why do this now? Because this won't stop them from still getting Sanchez or anyone else. In fact, it might help them in that they'll be going to a better team. So you really believe Dempster makes this team better? Or are the "better teams" all the ones in the AL who don't sign him?
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2012 12:28:27 GMT -5
Do you really think signing Dempster makes this team worse? I get that it makes for punchy and dramatic prose, but all the hyperbole really makes it tough to take your posts seriously.
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2012 12:32:58 GMT -5
Dave Cameron on the myth of the NL -> AL transition ( link): Because Dempster is headed for his age-36 season, has a fastball that sits around 90 mph, and had spent his entire career in the NL before the mid-season trade to Texas, many are going to expect Dempster to be exposed in the AL East. Whenever a pitcher without top-shelf velocity makes the move from the NL to the AL, and especially to the AL east, there’s always an expectation of disaster. The theory goes that pitchers with marginal velocity can dominate in the NL, but get exposed when facing the big bats of the super scary American League East.
The problem is that we’ve got too many pieces of evidence to suggest that it’s not true.
Last year, the guy making the big move was Hiroki Kuroda. At 37, he was leaving Dodger Stadium and the NL West for the Yankees, and he was going to find out just how different life was on the east coast, with the warm summers, small ballparks, and fearsome offensive line-ups. Instead of regressing, Kuroda had perhaps the best season of his career. His ERA- of 79 was tied for the sixth best mark in the league, and his peripheral numbers all head steady, even his strikeout rate. There was next to no difference between NL West Kuroda and AL East Kuroda.
Kuroda wasn’t the only NL West pitcher who made his way to the AL East last year. Jason Hammel was traded from Colorado to Baltimore in exchange for Jeremy Guthrie, and while leaving Colorado is always good for a pitcher’s career, landing in Baltimore didn’t seem like a huge improvement for a guy who had already been bounced out of the division after struggling in his early career with the Devil Rays. Instead, Hammel reinvented himself, added a two-seam fastball and some velocity, and posted career bests in bsaically every relevant pitching category. Hammel’s career HR/9 before last year was 1.06, but then he took his act to Baltimore and allowed 0.69 HR/9 while transitioning back to the AL East.
Going back to 2011, we see soft-tossing right-handers Carlos Villanueva and Freddy Garcia coming east, with Villanueva also making the switch from the National League. Over the last two years, Villanueva has posted an ERA- of 100, while Garcia has come in at 102, both improving over their performances with their previous clubs. And neither are exactly what you’d call stuff guys.
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Post by jdb on Dec 13, 2012 12:37:09 GMT -5
Speier has a new piece on Dempster. One interesting stat I noticed is he had 7 quality starts out of 12 with Texas. For two years I don't think you could top this signing. fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2012/12/13/red-sox-could-be-nearing-deal-with-ryan-dempster/Moreover, while Dempster’s experience with the Rangers raises questions about his ability to perform in the junior circuit, it’s possible to exaggerate his struggles in Texas, since he did log seven quality starts in 12 outings. That quality start percentage of 58.3 percent with the Rangers was better than that of any Red Sox starting pitcher last year. (Felix Doubront led the team with a 51.7 percent quality start rate.) On the year, Dempster turned in quality starts in 64.2 percent of his starts with the Cubs and Rangers, suggesting an ability to work relatively deep into games while giving his team a solid opportunity to win on a consistent basis.
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