SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox sign Dempster: 2-year, $26.5 million
|
Post by rangoon82 on Dec 13, 2012 12:41:18 GMT -5
Dave Cameron on the myth of the NL -> AL transition ( link): Interesting, I like the idea but its pretty much anecdotal evidence instead of objective analysis. Show me some inference.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 13, 2012 12:46:36 GMT -5
Dave Cameron on the myth of the NL -> AL transition ( link): Interesting, I like the idea but its pretty much anecdotal evidence instead of objective analysis. Show me some inference. Ditto. I haven't given Cameron much in the way of props since he was spewing all that silliness as a Mariners tout. His valuation of Lester back them was pure bull. While I understand he used that gig to work himself into a position with Fangraphs, that still doesn't cut much ice with me. So, yes, what's the projection?
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Dec 13, 2012 12:49:49 GMT -5
Seems like Lucchino is insisting they spend $170 million just to show they care.
Also seems like they have no imaginative strategy, and are just waiting for the prospects to make it.
They must believe in the prospects, and they'd better be right. Even with short contracts, there's no big name players coming up next year. So, it'll have to be a defecting Cuban or a posted Asian.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2012 13:06:03 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2012 13:14:57 GMT -5
I have to say that I am in two camps about how well I expect Dempster to do in the AL East.
At first glance,my gut tells me that guys with his profile rarley fair well with the NL to AL transition. However as Dave Cameron points out on fangraphs that is not always the case, and it is also possible that the AL East is no longer as dominant offensively as it once was and that rest of the league has caught up.
Meanwhile after looking at his stats for a second time, I have to say that I am getting more comfortable with idea. For the past five seasons he has averaged a little less than 200 innings, maintained FIPs and XFIPS under 4 for each season and has been a consistent 3 win pitcher.
At only two years at < 30 million, this looks like a really solid move.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 13, 2012 13:17:34 GMT -5
Do you really think signing Dempster makes this team worse? I get that it makes for punchy and dramatic prose, but all the hyperbole really makes it tough to take your posts seriously. Yes I do. Wholeheartedly.I think given his age, his current stuff and the quality of the competition this is a bad signing. I also think if he gets more than Brandon McCarthy + $2M (i.e. $18M over 2 yrs/$9M a year, which I believe the Sox could've had McCarthy for - I know they had no chance because he grew up wanting to be a DBack/wanted to play in AZ/loves the dry heat, blah blah blah that people will say) it's even worse. And trust me I want to be wrong here on all counts. I want this team to win. But I really believe Dempster is ill-suited for the AL East specifically, and AL over all. I would be gleeful if he was signed by the Yankees, Rays, Jays or Orioles. I also really believe Victorino is a platoon player and am really praying that the Napoli deal falls apart and they get Swisher - or even Hamilton on a 4yr or less deal.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2012 13:34:33 GMT -5
I figure Dempster will be hardpressed to be worse than Beckett was last year, and in essence, he's taking Beckett's spot in the rotation.
It kind of reminds me of the John Burkett signing a few years back. I guess it's about as good as the Sox can do without overpaying in years and crazy dollars for Greinke and Sanchez, and without sacrificing a draft pick (Lohse) and not overpaying in years if it is indeed 2 years.
If they wanted a cheaper alternative, perhaps Marcum could have been the way to go, but Dempster does make his starts.
Guidas, I like Brandon McCarthy, too, but how many starts would he last before he's on the DL? He kind of reminds me a little bid of Rich Harden.
And whoever talked about Daisuke - I assume that was a joke - Daisuke would accept the qualifying offer and laugh his you know what off. $13.3 million for one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past several years. No thanks. I'll remember him fondly for 2007 and 2008 and forget the rest.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Dec 13, 2012 13:52:39 GMT -5
Yes I do. Wholeheartedly.I think given his age, his current stuff and the quality of the competition this is a bad signing. And trust me I want to be wrong here on all counts. I want this team to win. But I really believe Dempster is ill-suited for the AL East specifically, and AL over all. I would be gleeful if he was signed by the Yankees, Rays, Jays or Orioles. I also really believe Victorino is a platoon player and am really praying that the Napoli deal falls apart and they get Swisher - or even Hamilton on a 4yr or less deal. Wow, are you actually a fan of the Red Sox? This negative diatribe from you is really getting old. I like wOBA, so here are your 2012 MLB rankings for AL East accoding to wOBA: 1. Yankees 11. Orioles 12. Red Sox 17. Rays 18. Blue Jays And, the NL Central rankings: 5. Brewers 6. Cardinals 14. Reds 25. Pirates 28. Cubs 29. Astros The Orioles were bolstered by a number of guys having great years at the same time. I think they drop to the high teens. The Rays will probably stay about the same as will the Yanks. The Jays should improve quite a bit. So, overall, it will be a bit harder for him, I agree. I however, disagree that it's going to be a "bad" signing. He'll probably throw >180 innings at a 4.0 FIP level. That's a decent piece of a rotation. Nothing spectacular, but solid innings count for a lot. Not to go off subject here, but what's with the Napoli hatred? The Sox need a 1B, he's the good and will sign here for the short term. What's not to like? I doubt Swisher would sign on as a full-time 1B. Hamilton certainly won't. You're just wrong about Victorino being a platoon player. They wrote an entire article at Fangraphs about it.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2012 14:05:49 GMT -5
Let me get this right, you think that Ryan Dempster is destined to be an abject failure in large part to his stuff. Meanwhile you think that Brandon MacCarthy would be a slam dunk success in the fens. Yet both pitchers sit at 90 MPH.
How about you look things up before you post.
2012 Pitch types: Brandon McCarthy: Fastball (cutter) 90MPH Sinker: 90.3 Curveball: 79.4 Ryan Dempster: Fastball (four Seamer) 89.6 MPH Slider: 85 Fatball (2 Seamer): 89.5 and Dempster actually has a fourth pitch unlike McCarthy Splitfinger: 81.5
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2012 14:08:09 GMT -5
Also, Ryan Dempster would have been the best pitcher on the Red Sox last year. He's as likely to make the Red Sox worse as Clay Buchholz is.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Dec 13, 2012 14:09:41 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats Anibal Sanchez and Ryan Dempster's numbers over the last three seasons: i.imgur.com/s28kW.jpg
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Dec 13, 2012 14:12:53 GMT -5
would have been the best pitcher on the Red Sox last year. Can we give this one a rest? We all know the rotation pitched poorly last year.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 13, 2012 14:20:53 GMT -5
Yes I do. Wholeheartedly.I think given his age, his current stuff and the quality of the competition this is a bad signing. And trust me I want to be wrong here on all counts. I want this team to win. But I really believe Dempster is ill-suited for the AL East specifically, and AL over all. I would be gleeful if he was signed by the Yankees, Rays, Jays or Orioles. I also really believe Victorino is a platoon player and am really praying that the Napoli deal falls apart and they get Swisher - or even Hamilton on a 4yr or less deal. Wow, are you actually a fan of the Red Sox? This negative diatribe from you is really getting old. Yes. I am actually a fan. That's the part where I said I really want to be wrong about thinking this potential signing is a bad deal, that Victorino looks like he'll be more allergic to righties than not for the next three years at this point in his career and that I preferred Swisher or Youkilis on a 1 yr deal at first over Napoli (never said I'd put Hamilton there). And since when did Red Sox fans - even those of us who pour over stats and watch all the games as well as follow the minor leagues exhaustively, like many here - agree on everything? Seriously.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Dec 13, 2012 14:28:38 GMT -5
via sox scout (last 3 years)
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Dec 13, 2012 14:52:14 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal @ken_Rosenthal Dempster and #RedSox are in agreement, pending physical.
RT @ken_Rosenthal: Sources: Dempster close with #RedSox on two-year, $26.5 million free-agent contract
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Dec 13, 2012 15:01:52 GMT -5
Yes. I am actually a fan. That's the part where I said I really want to be wrong about thinking this potential signing is a bad deal, that Victorino looks like he'll be more allergic to righties than not for the next three years at this point in his career and that I preferred Swisher or Youkilis on a 1 yr deal at first over Napoli (never said I'd put Hamilton there). And since when did Red Sox fans - even those of us who pour over stats and watch all the games as well as follow the minor leagues exhaustively, like many here - agree on everything? Seriously. We don't have to agree on everything. But you agree with nothing that anyone says or does. What if, Youkilis didn't want to come back? What if, Swisher won't sign for less than 4, AND won't be a primary 1B? You'd still have a hole at 1B. And yes, Victorino has a split, most players have a split (including Hamilton and Swisher). However, you should probably do some research, or read the article on Fangraphs because they've already done the research for you. His split doesn't cause him to be a negative value player vs. RHP.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 13, 2012 15:30:06 GMT -5
I'm still trying to figure out why anyone cares what kind of money these guys are getting. Two years at 12-13 million is as close to free money as a fan can get. It's not going to hamstring anything for the Red Sox, and that's the *only* parameter I care about. What do I care if John Henry keeps an extra 2-3 million a year instead of Ryan Dempster?
Ryan Dempster's a competent major league pitcher. The Sox were very lacking in that. Might he be terrible? I guess it's possible, but I think he's fairly likely to fill a rotation slot for the next two years with at least league average performance, and that's pretty valuable to this team right now.
|
|
|
Post by glassox on Dec 13, 2012 15:44:41 GMT -5
I like the off season so far. Yeah there were other players that might have better at stats and are younger, but with the number of prospects coming up for the Red Sox i think short deals with really good teammates is more important. The last few years of a toxic clubhouse shows us how imortant it is to have good teammates. I like this deal.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Dec 13, 2012 16:07:02 GMT -5
I don't think its a perfect signing but I think its a good one, similar to the Victorino one. How bad could it hurt us to have him on the payroll for two years. I would rather have McCarthy @ $10M less, but this also works.
I haven't gotten to see him pitch that much, but I do remember when he came to Fenway and ate our lunches last year.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Dec 13, 2012 17:30:41 GMT -5
Sports Illustrated had a good writeup about what to expect from Dempster. It is being reported that it is a done deal pending physical. mlb.si.com/2012/12/13/ryan-dempster-red-sox-hot-stove/I am happy to see a starter signed. This is great progress thus far... but we still have a ways to go.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 13, 2012 18:12:28 GMT -5
We don't have to agree on everything. But you agree with nothing that anyone says or does. This is hilarious. Stereotype much? Off the top of my head, most recently I loved the Uehara deal and said so; I thought the Ross deal was OK, though I don't think he can handle much more than 80 games a year behind the plate (nor do I think the plan is to use him more than that). I'm also agree with Chris that Igelsias will hit enough at the MLB level to justify starting and should be the starting SS this year. I am in agreement with everyone who says Franklin Morales should be the Sox 5th starter until his performance proves otherwise. Ditto those who've said Tazawa could be a better closer candidate than Bailey. Liked that they picked up Deven Morero in the first round last year and actually think he could be an MLB starter in 2015, if not sooner. Lots of common ground here. And btw, I am not the only person in the world not in love with the Victorino and Napoli decisions (and likely Dempster, too, when that's finalized). Quite a bit of dissent can be found out there, even among people like you and me who watch the games and look at the numbers. Hey, even among people who get paid to do so for a living.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2012 21:02:15 GMT -5
Here's the thing about the Napoli, Dempster and Victorino contracts:
- They are not LONG term commitments - They don't hamstring the team much going forward - They bring quality players who may not have huge ceilings, but they do have fairly good ones (Napoli in Fenway and Victorino of the past few years sans his contract year, etc.) - They bring good quality individuals to the team and could go a long way towards cleaning up the bad karma around this place.
If the second part of that last one seems far fetched, lets remember for a minute that this was arguable the best team in baseball on August 30, 2011. Then shit hit the fan. It was not talent. There were off the field things that spilled over to the field.
If these signing help fix that and then players perform like should be expected, wither one or two players having excellent seasons then this can be a very strong team.
These signings allow them to have that OPPORTUNITY. They keep the system in tact, like we want.
You can not be excited about these signing all you want, but I fail to see the downside. Saying you prefer McCarthy to Dempster is fine, but you're splitting hairs in reality. Neither is a top of the rotation difference maker and both have baggage.
Outside of Greinke there were no real impact arms on the market. It's funny the same people bitching about not going after Sanchez are probably the same who are bashing the Lackey contract. Lackey has been terrible, but turns out he was hurt. It wouldn't shock me one bit if he's a solid 2 or 3 this year. Sanchez isn't a sure things and there is a good chance his contract will be looked at as attrocious if someone gives him 5 yeas 80-90M.
The Sox can still trade Ellsbury mid-season and get a good haul for him. Maybe better than they could get now. Teams trade more than they should midseason all the time. (See Angels for Greinke)
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2012 21:29:09 GMT -5
I think Dempster vs. others came down to him accepting a 2-year deal. I'm not sure anyone else available would have taken that. This gives them someone that'll step aside once one of Webster, Barnes, or De La Rosa can step in. They're essentially creating a two-year bridge in the rotation.
Lester: 2 more years (1 year remaining, plus club option for $13M that will certainly be exercised) Buchholz: 3 more years plus 2 club options Lackey: 3 more years, but one is at MLB minimum, so it's almost like 2 plus a free year in which they can super-easily cut or trade if they really wanted. Doubront: 5 more years of team control Dempster: 2 years
So the Red Sox now have three rotation slots that can be turned over in two years should they want to, whether it's to someone from within or without the organization. And it's not even like they're punting - if Lester and Buchholz get straightened out, that's a fine rotation should the lineup get itself back together.
|
|
|
Post by psusox14 on Dec 13, 2012 22:19:01 GMT -5
Anyone notice how the free agents we've signed all make up the All-Kevin-Millar's-Best-Friend Team between Papi, Dempster, Gomes, and Victorino? Not sure if he and Napoli have any history.
|
|
|
Post by klostrophobic on Dec 14, 2012 1:52:43 GMT -5
I like all these short deals. People will bitch about their all being too much money, but I don't see how anyone can say that—it's a pointless phrase for the most part. There are finite free agents and the Red Sox have a lot of money to spend. And unless you're giving up the top of the farm system, you aren't improving the major league club without signing free agents.
Spending 13 million a year on a player doesn't prevent anything in the short term.
Even if he comes in an is John Lackey 2.0, what is the downside? That someone like Graham Godfrey gets fewer starts?
|
|
|