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SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
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Post by jmei on May 1, 2017 11:58:30 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on May 1, 2017 17:58:30 GMT -5
Details
A new # 1 and 59 players get a change of 1 sort or another in their ranking. Summary:
- Beni graduates from prospect status and Rafael Devers is the new # 1.
- Also moving up a notch at 2 - 7 are Groome, Travis, Dalbec, Hernandez, and Chatham.
- The first real change is Travis Lakins who went from 12 up to the 7th spot.
- Josh Ockimey is up from 10 to 8.
- Michael Chavis is right behind him going from 11 to 9.
- Brian Johnson rounds out the top 10, up from 13.
- Nick Longhi slipped from 9 to 11.
- Roniel Raudes fell from 8 to 12.
- Shaun Anderson up 6 from 19 to 13.
- Ben Taylor up from 20 to 16.
- Jalen Beeks 23 to 17.
- Aneury Tavarez jumped 10 spots up to # 18.
- Luis Ysla down from 15 to 20.
- Robby Scott up 4, 27 to 23.
- Jake Cosart plummeted from 15 to 26.
- Austin Maddox matched that in the other direction leaping from 40 to # 29.
- Trey Ball down from 18 to 30.
- Josh Tobias took the biggest jump this month moving up from 47 to 32.
- Danny Mars up 11, now at 33.
- Ty Buttrey is at 36. He was last ranked 11 months ago at # 42. His high water mark was 17 in July of 15.
- Austin Rei up from 54 to 41.
- Santiago Espinal up from 55 to 43.
- Joseph Monge fell by 7 to # 44.
- Williams Jerez down from 42 to 46.
- Jordan Procyshen at 45, up 8.
- Teddy Stankiewicz from 43 to 48.
- Roldani Baldwin 45 to 49.
- Yoan Aybar 46 to 50.
- Hildemaro Requena is at 56, last ranked in February at 53.
- Hector Velazquez, a February signing from the Mexican League, is ranked for the first time at # 47.
- Victor Garcia finishes the top 60. He was last ranked 52nd in February.
- Falling out of the top 60:
- Edgar Olmas from # 35.
- Mike Meyers from 56.
- Pedro Castellanos from 58.
[/ul]
[/quote] I see that you have done the summary several times and I appreciate the effort. I was today juggling this stuff in my mind and rather unsuccessfully. I applaud your initiative! Thanks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 1, 2017 22:12:13 GMT -5
It's the three of us - Chaz's input comes more from us reading his stuff these days more than anything. We've been known to run questions by him if he's seen someone recently.
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Post by jcsox on May 2, 2017 13:54:09 GMT -5
Question, what is the background of those who rank players? Are they former college / pro baseball players? How much of an impact does Baseball America rankings or input from Boston coaches/scout have. Just curious?
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on May 3, 2017 0:51:41 GMT -5
Question, what is the background of those who rank players? Are they former college / pro baseball players? How much of an impact does Baseball America rankings or input from Boston coaches/scout have. Just curious? Here's a start.
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Post by Mike Andrews on May 3, 2017 15:15:52 GMT -5
I am a lawyer with no college or pro baseball experience. But I have been doing this for 15 years and I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Our end-of-season rankings are published before BA's annual rankings are published each year. And our rankings are updated monthly, so the BA rankings really have nothing the do with our rankings. But they do have great scouting nuggets and insight that we consider, mainly because Alex Speier is a beast. We also have connections with many pro scouts, and their takes factor in quite a bit.
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 12, 2017 22:58:53 GMT -5
I don't understand why Trevor Kelley gets no love from you guys. He has only been lights out in save opportunities with a 0.00 ERA and yet he is not even in the top 60. Seems kind of strange to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 16, 2017 9:11:34 GMT -5
I don't understand why Trevor Kelley gets no love from you guys. He has only been lights out in save opportunities with a 0.00 ERA and yet he is not even in the top 60. Seems kind of strange to me. The stuff is super-duper fringy. He'll probably break the top 60 on June 1, but tough to get too excited about a 23yo sidearm guy throwing 86-88 in High A. That's an updated report from the spring too (as noted on the Scouting Log). www.soxprospects.com/players/kelley-trevor.htmIn A-ball, a funky delivery is enough to dominate if you can locate or have one good pitch or something. That all said, he's certainly doing all you could ask him to do right now - he'll just need to show it all the way up.
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 16, 2017 16:14:18 GMT -5
I don't understand why Trevor Kelley gets no love from you guys. He has only been lights out in save opportunities with a 0.00 ERA and yet he is not even in the top 60. Seems kind of strange to me. The stuff is super-duper fringy. He'll probably break the top 60 on June 1, but tough to get too excited about a 23yo sidearm guy throwing 86-88 in High A. That's an updated report from the spring too (as noted on the Scouting Log). www.soxprospects.com/players/kelley-trevor.htmIn A-ball, a funky delivery is enough to dominate if you can locate or have one good pitch or something. That all said, he's certainly doing all you could ask him to do right now - he'll just need to show it all the way up. after i posted this he managed to give up a run. His prospects write-up does look a little weak. 86-88 fastball is nothing to get excited about, but he does have a natural sink and that is worth noting. I get you though. didn't realize he was that age. thanks for the info.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 13:03:44 GMT -5
I can't find a thread for this, so I will post it here. Why is Chatham ranked so high? It's bugged me since the start of the season and yet he has done nothing but he is still ranked high. There are just a bunch of players that have proven more than he has. It's not like he was seen as a high upside guy when we drafted him. Nothing he has done since has changed that opinion. Its criminal to have him ranked over a player like Chavis at this point. There is no way you can tell me Chatham has a higher floor or ceiling at this time. I don't even see why he's top 10, more like top 15. While a bunch of guys have taken a big step forward, he hasn't done anything. It's not even like last year he was very good, he was just ok. The two pitchers taken after him have shown a ton more and should be ranked above him also.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2017 15:22:03 GMT -5
I can't find a thread for this, so I will post it here. Why is Chatham ranked so high? It's bugged me since the start of the season and yet he has done nothing but he is still ranked high. There are just a bunch of players that have proven more than he has. It's not like he was seen as a high upside guy when we drafted him. Nothing he has done since has changed that opinion. Its criminal to have him ranked over a player like Chavis at this point. There is no way you can tell me Chatham has a higher floor or ceiling at this time. I don't even see why he's top 10, more like top 15. While a bunch of guys have taken a big step forward, he hasn't done anything. It's not even like last year he was very good, he was just ok. The two pitchers taken after him have shown a ton more and should be ranked above him also. Don't have time to go into this in depth, but I'll just say this. If you're looking only at 2017 statistics and haven't seen any games, yep, I get what you're saying. However, based on seeing Chatham in Lowell, Fall Instructs, and Spring Training; plus based on reports from sources we trust; plus looking at entire bodies of work and our full offensive and defensive projections, as of May 1, we don't agree with your assessment. Nothing wrong with that of course, and I don't think you're completely off base. You'll notice that everyone from 6 downward in the current rankings has the same projection grade of 4. That means we don't think there's much separating them. I'll also mention that I had a hell of a time figuring out who the heck to put at #4 this month. After the top 3, the quality in this system craters, in my opinion. You can find major strengths and major weaknesses with everyone after Travis. (I should note Hernandez, along with Scott and Marrero, will be graduating on 6/1.) I've got Dalbec falling back into the rest of the 4 projection pack at this point, and the three of us who do the rankings have completely different lists after the top 3, so there's discussion to be had there. EDIT: Let me just mention for Chavis - for the rankings you're looking at, he'd hit well for all of two weeks and wasn't playing the field at all. He still moved ahead of Longhi and Raudes, so he was beginning to move upward. Also, don't ignore the defense - he's played 13 games at third base this year and he's made errors in 6 of them (today he's playing third and hasn't made any errors as of the 7th). As great as he's been offensively, if anything, it's bringing to the forefront that something's gotta give defensively in that he either needs to get a lot better or move. Compare that to Chatham, who has shown the ability to stay at shortstop, at least in the near-term. With that, there's less pressure on the bat, so yeah, I definitely think he's got a higher floor, perhaps for that reason alone. (and nobody's saying he's got a higher ceiling - they have the same ceiling grade) Chavis has had a great month-and-a-half at the plate, but let's not get crazy here.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jun 1, 2017 0:24:35 GMT -5
Details
Summary:
- Josh Ockimey makes the top 4, up from 8.
- CJ Chatham up from 6 to 5.
- Travis Lakins up from 7 to 6.
- Michael Chavis up from 9 to 7.
- Bobby Dalbec dropped from 4 to 8.
- Darwinzon Hernandez up from 19 to 14.
- Roniel Raudes from 12 down to 16.
- Steve Nogosek up from 24 to 20.
- Ty Buttrey leaped from 36 up to 21. He was unranked at the end of April. His highest rank was # 17 in July of '15.
- Trey Ball up from 30 to 22.
- Austin Maddox at 23, up from 29 last month and 40 the month before.
- Josh Tobias is at 26, up 6 in the last month and 21 since April.
- Luis Ysla dropped from 20 to 27.
- Danny Mars up from 33 to 29.
- Gerson Bautista dropped from 25 to 30.
- Lorenzo Cedrola rose from 37 to 33.
- Yankory Pimentel at 34, up 8.
- Hector Vealzquez up from 47 to 36.
- Roldani Baldwin up from 49 to 40.
- Tzu-Wei Lin (remember him?) is at 42. He as last ranked # 55 in july of 2015. His highest rank was # 22 in September of 2012.
- Teddy Stankiewicz up from 48 to 41.
- Kyri Washington down from 35 to 43.
- Trenton Kemp (another "remember him?") is at 44. He was last ranked # 60 on 5/31/15.
- Marc Brakeman at # 47, up 6.
- Austin Rei is 48th, down 7.
- Joseph Monge fell from 44 to 50.
- Kevin McAvoy rounds out the top 60. He was last ranked
- Falling out of the top 60:
- Chris Acosta
- Marco Hernandez, Robby Scott, and Deven Marerro all graduated from prospect status (I think ... Mods??)
[/ul]
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2017 3:56:50 GMT -5
dd, you have a few guys listed multiple times including Ball, Buttrey, Monge, Rei.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 1, 2017 5:53:39 GMT -5
So which will come quicker, Mata in the top 5 or the all-star break?
We all found a new kid to dream on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2017 7:27:27 GMT -5
dd, you have a few guys listed multiple times including Ball, Buttrey, Monge, Rei. Yeah, Dick, you may want to start over on this one, bud. Lol. And yes, Hernandez, Scott, and Marrero all graduated. (And to clarify, the message board moderators have nothing to do with the rankings.)
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jun 1, 2017 8:19:12 GMT -5
dd, you have a few guys listed multiple times including Ball, Buttrey, Monge, Rei. Yeah, Dick, you may want to start over on this one, bud. Lol. And yes, Hernandez, Scott, and Marrero all graduated. (And to clarify, the message board moderators have nothing to do with the rankings.) Sorry. I was editing the previous post and lost my place so I left a bunch of old stuff in the middle. I shouldn't do this at 1am. Re "mods", I know, but it felt odd to call you "rankers". It just has a pejorative sound to it. :-) Anyway, hope it's all better now. Very embarrassing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2017 8:39:08 GMT -5
No worries bud, we were just messing with you.
And I know you know that - just want to make sure that's clear to everyone.
Also, Requena's at 52.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 1, 2017 11:19:12 GMT -5
Some thoughts on the rankings:
- Ockimey at #4 was a slight surprise and aggressive.....but I like it. I think he represents the best OBP/power combo in the system and that shouldn't be taken lightly. In my personal rankings I essentially have Lakins, Chavis, Chatham, Ockimey, B. Johnson, and Shawaryn in a tier behind the top 3. The ordering of that tier is difficult for me.
- I like Mata bumping up slightly, and as mentioned on the site, if he continues to find success at Greenville, he can quickly move into the top 10 (5?), given how wide open it is after Travis.
- Nogosek into the top 20 was a slight surprise. I think I need to pay more attention to him in Greenville. Would like to see him promoted to Salem in a month or two.
- If there is one ranking I would strongly disagree with, its Lorenzo Cedrola (#33). Compared to the rest of our outfielders in our system, he is younger (19), arguably excelling in Greenville (he's probably been there best player so far this year and there are numerous college grads on that roster), he is a better defender than the other ranked OFs, has really good contact skills, plus speed, and is even driving the ball at least a little. I firmly believe he should be on par with Aneury Tavares (ranked #18), and ahead of the Mars (#29), Matheny (#31), and Hill (#32) tier that he is currently lumped in with.
- Nice to see Kemp and Tsu-Wei Lin reenter the rankings. Here's to hoping they can continue to climb after nice starts to the season.
- Overall, its been a great start to the year for our farm system IMO. Sure, the Dombrowski trades no doubt cleared out the high end of our system....its hard to imagine how nasty this system would look with Moncada, Espinoza, Kopech, et al. at the top. That said, there have been far more pleasant surprises (e.g., Chavis, Beeks, Darwinzon, Mata, Callahan, Buttrey, Kemp, Lin) than relative disappointments (Dalbec and Raudes), and plenty of players holding their appropriate rankings (Devers, Travis, Johnson, Longhi). System actually looks fairly deep and we're about to add our 2017 draft picks with a loaded international class soon after in July.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 1, 2017 11:41:02 GMT -5
Is Acosta dropping due to any reports, or a "rising" of other prospects? It would seem, given the odd assemblage of fillers from 25-60, that his potential would merit remaining on the radar.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 1, 2017 11:46:03 GMT -5
He's back on the DSL projected roster, that may have something to do with that. I am not privy to any inside info, but perhaps her gets a shot in the GCL somehow at some time? That might boost his ranking. But getting stuck back in the DSL this year cannot be good for him. Maybe he has to work his way out of there? We'll see. At least he's not on the restricted list.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2017 11:51:08 GMT -5
A couple thoughts:
- On #4, we might write about it on the News Page. The three of us had the same guys ranked 4-8, but in different orders. There are positives and significant negatives with each. It's an interesting exercise that Ian and I discussed on this week's podcast before we knew how the rankings would even come out. I'll say what I've said in the past, as it really does still apply - I'd feel a lot better about it if those guys were fighting for, say, the number 6 or 7 spot rather than the number 4 spot.
- I want to mention Cedrola, because you might have a point. We do have doubts about how the bat will play higher in the system, which is why he's in the tier you mention. He's really short - listed at 5-11 but he's 5-10 tops and likely 5-9 - and I wonder how much of his XBH is from his speed, which potentially plays up more in the SAL than it will at higher levels. I also find it weird that at his height he's not walking more.
But the thing I found interesting is this, in terms of our process. He's gotten really hot in the last week or so, which goosed his numbers up a bit from the ones we were looking at when ranking him. We submitted our initial lists on 5/25. Since then, he's raised his line from .277/.319/.408 to .300/.337/.431. And if we were looking at his line before the Drive's doubleheader on 5/24 (at least one of us did, I believe), he was at .273/.313/.388 for the year. Not hugely significant, but it is somewhat so - he's stolen 5 of his 11 bases and hit 4 of his 14 XBH in the past 8 days. So the profile was meaningfully different (potentially 43 points of slugging difference and nearly half of his steals not there, for example, depending on when we looked) when we were ranking. Goes to show that numbers even two full months in are tough to put too much stock into.
If he continues to hit, you're absolutely right that he could and should separate from that pack, although I'm not sure he's on par with Tavarez quite yet.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2017 11:54:01 GMT -5
Is Acosta dropping due to any reports, or a "rising" of other prospects? It would seem, given the odd assemblage of fillers from 25-60, that his potential would merit remaining on the radar. He did drop out. We have reports that he will be in the DSL to start that season, although (and this is my conjecture now), that may just be until the GCL starts, which is a thing they've done. But if that's not the case, that's really bad, as it means he was in extended in the U.S. and they sent him back down. I think we're at a point now where we need to see it (at least on the stats page) before we believe in him again. Based on how the past year-plus has gone, I'd bet he never reaches AA before I'd bet he reaches the majors. I have very serious concerns about the makeup.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2017 13:10:40 GMT -5
My top 10
1. Devers
2. Groome
3. Travis
4. Chavis
5. Ockimey
6. Larkin
7. Dalbec
8. Shawaryn
9. Chatham
10. Johnson
Next 5 would be Mata, Hernandez, Beeks, Raudes and Anderson in that order. You can say what you want about Chavis, but outside Devers he looks to have second best bat in minors. Maybe it's only two months, but in those two months he done things that no one outside Devers seems capable of doing. Even when his average goes down his power will play anywhere. I'm also not going to write him off being able to play 3b, until he's healthy and gets a bunch of playing time there. Most likely we won't truly know until next year. Shawaryn was my 2nd favorite pick after Groome in last years draft. A guy seen as a first round talent after sophomore year, but had a down junior year so he dropped to 5th round. 78 strikeouts in 53 innings, with a 1.07 whip, those numbers get me excited.
Maybe I'm too low on Chatham, I almost put him 11 and Mata #10. I hated the pick when they made it, so I'm biased against him. I just can't get the draft experts calling him a safe pick, with a ceiling of a utility guy out of my head. One of the best college SS in a horrible year for college SS. Nevermind his so so stats for his age and experience in low A ball last year and his average D. I hope I'm dead wrong, but he's hardly played and hasn't yet produced in a way that changes my overall opinion of him. Kept him at 9 just because of the strong opinions of the staff that have seen him in person. I just need to see more before I move him above guys that have proven a lot more.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2017 15:26:16 GMT -5
Maybe I'm too low on Chatham, I almost put him 11 and Mata #10. I hated the pick when they made it, so I'm biased against him. I just can't get the draft experts calling him a safe pick, with a ceiling of a utility guy out of my head. One of the best college SS in a horrible year for college SS. Nevermind his so so stats for his age and experience in low A ball last year and his average D. I hope I'm dead wrong, but he's hardly played and hasn't yet produced in a way that changes my overall opinion of him. Kept him at 9 just because of the strong opinions of the staff that have seen him in person. I just need to see more before I move him above guys that have proven a lot more. I'm not sure what you expected for an underslot signing that we needed at #51. The baseball draft is such a crapshoot outside of the top 10-20 depending on the year.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 1, 2017 17:04:06 GMT -5
- I want to mention Cedrola, because you might have a point. We do have doubts about how the bat will play higher in the system, which is why he's in the tier you mention. He's really short - listed at 5-11 but he's 5-10 tops and likely 5-9 - and I wonder how much of his XBH is from his speed, which potentially plays up more in the SAL than it will at higher levels. I also find it weird that at his height he's not walking more. But the thing I found interesting is this, in terms of our process. He's gotten really hot in the last week or so, which goosed his numbers up a bit from the ones we were looking at when ranking him. We submitted our initial lists on 5/25. Since then, he's raised his line from .277/.319/.408 to .300/.337/.431. And if we were looking at his line before the Drive's doubleheader on 5/24 (at least one of us did, I believe), he was at .273/.313/.388 for the year. Not hugely significant, but it is somewhat so - he's stolen 5 of his 11 bases and hit 4 of his 14 XBH in the past 8 days. So the profile was meaningfully different (potentially 43 points of slugging difference and nearly half of his steals not there, for example, depending on when we looked) when we were ranking. Goes to show that numbers even two full months in are tough to put too much stock into. If he continues to hit, you're absolutely right that he could and should separate from that pack, although I'm not sure he's on par with Tavarez quite yet. Thanks for the insight. The power of the triple slash line is strong, I know I'm too easily biased by it at times. I do maintain though that I like Cedrola on a tier with Tavarez and Tavarez alone among OF prospects. My reasoning -- Cedrola can play CF, and might even be above average there in time. Thats huge and to me elevates both the floor and ceiling above Tavarez. Tavarez I'd favor in the rankings simply due to proximity to the majors and because he's put up really strong numbers at AA. That said, he is 25 and has yet to prove anything in AAA. When he was Cedrola's age, he put up a .661 OPS in the GCL striking out 35% of the time. Now that said, guys develop in different ways, and I'm hoping Tavarez is truly more of a late bloomer. But I do think Cedrola deserves some credit for being on an accelerated track and his defensive profile/speed/contact skills make it pretty easy to envision him as a 4th OF in the major leagues (essentially Tavarez optimistic projection complicated by the fact that he hasn't played any CF). Anyways, just my two cents. Love the rankings overall!
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