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Post by ramireja on Apr 15, 2016 13:17:04 GMT -5
Wilkerson made Fangraph's most recent " Fringe Five: Baseball's Most Compelling Fringe Prospects." Check out the link for video of fastballs (92-94) for swinging strikes, and two great curveballs as well. I know he's old, but I'm interested in following him this year, and anticipate a bump up to Pawtucket at some point. |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 15, 2016 15:39:13 GMT -5
Holy crap, a 43.6% K rate and 5.1% walk rate in 2 starts. That's even better than Koji in 2013. Now do it in AAA.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2016 15:58:47 GMT -5
I've been watching the numbers. Quite a find. He's been killing it in AA so it's obvious he needs to move up, and soon. And no, if he makes it to the majors at 26, and that's entirely possible at this rate, he's not too old at all. This guy has some serious pitching chops.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Apr 15, 2016 17:17:20 GMT -5
people need to get over age. Arrieta found it at 27
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Post by klostrophobic on Apr 15, 2016 17:41:19 GMT -5
people need to get over age. Arrieta found it at 27 Arrieta is an outlier and also was in the majors at age 24 (Wilkerson was in Indy-ball at 24). Maybe Wilkerson can be an outlier too, but you can't just 'get over age.' Wilkerson will be 27 in a month and he hasn't made it to AAA. That is not a profile with a lot of major league success. In fact, I bet you can't name a single non-knuckleball pitcher who hadn't made it to AAA by age 27 and then had success in the majors. inb4 naming Japanese pitchers. |
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Post by gator39 on Apr 16, 2016 12:33:48 GMT -5
It depends on how you define success
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Post by klostrophobic on Apr 16, 2016 12:37:56 GMT -5
10 innings of ERA+ of 100.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 16, 2016 16:13:30 GMT -5
The stuff is merely whelming (not over- or under-) and I'm not sure how well the profile will play in Triple-A, nevermind the bigs.
I'm ignoring it until we see it in Pawtucket, myself. He's definitely been a find as far as indy ball guys tend to go though. He was basically signed to fill a Lowell rotation spot.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 18, 2016 16:34:51 GMT -5
It's a highlight reel, so I take it with a salt-lick sized "grain," but this fastballs were both outstandingly located and of at least average velocity (MLB is 92 for a RH), and the curve is quite good, with good depth and nice late bite. I'm curious to see how he looks in AAA. I don't think it'll take long if he keeps this up.
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Post by gator39 on Apr 21, 2016 18:45:58 GMT -5
With Owens presumably being called up to replace Kelly, Wilkerson should get the call up to Pawtucket.
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Post by soxfanatic on Apr 22, 2016 9:04:25 GMT -5
Evan Drellich evandrellich 4 min. Portland’s Aaron Wilkerson’s heading to Triple A Pawtucket. Trickle down effect as Red Sox chew through PawSox pitching staff like chiclets |
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 22, 2016 9:37:17 GMT -5
Evan Drellich evandrellich 4 min. Portland’s Aaron Wilkerson’s heading to Triple A Pawtucket. Trickle down effect as Red Sox chew through PawSox pitching staff like chiclets He deserves it. |
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 22, 2016 10:45:50 GMT -5
Who is the corresponding add to Portland's pitching staff?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 22, 2016 11:01:30 GMT -5
Who is the corresponding add to Portland's pitching staff? If it's for one or two starts, there may not be one. McCarthy probably just takes the start and they'd still have a seven-man 'pen. |
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 25, 2016 0:41:23 GMT -5
I was pretty skeptical of this dude, but he's starting to have a large enough sample at a high enough level to warrant some consideration for an eventual callup to majors. Especially in Boston where the rotation is actually just a series of bags of meat randomly selected and discharged through an extruding tube onto the mound every game. He's at an age appropriate level now and in 34 AAA innings has a K% of 28.7 and a BB% of 7. I don't know if it's smoke and mirrors and deception that won't work at the major league level, but that doesn't stop them from employing Clay Buccholz and Roenis Elias and whatever else comes out the meat extrusion tube two out of every five games, so hopefully they can get Wilkerson into Boston shortly.
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Post by bnich on Jun 25, 2016 8:46:36 GMT -5
Why not give him a chance at this point? What is there to lose beside a ball game which Owens and Elias have surely shown capable of doing.
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ericmvan
Veteran
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 25, 2016 10:11:35 GMT -5
Why not give him a chance at this point? What is there to lose beside a ball game which Owens and Elias have surely shown capable of doing. Well, Buchholz is coming off a game that, after the first two pitches (or with luck removed, depending on your POV), was middle-of-the-pack vintage good Buchholz. He'll get another handful of starts, at least. However, there's actually a decent argument for getting Wilkerson into the pen and letting him face MLB hitters, just to assess what we've got. Why? Because right now he's probably your next option for 5th starter after Buchholz, or as injury replacement for the other four. If you had confidence that Wilkerson could be adequate, you would convert Joe Kelly to relief when he comes off the DL. Now, a few more good starts in a row for Owens and maybe you do the Kelly relief conversion anyway, but until that happens you probably need to keep him in the rotation when he returns. Today is Wilkerson's day to throw on the side between starts. Given the recent bullpen usage, if I were DDo, he'd be on a plane right now for Texas, and LeMarre would be DFA'd. |
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Post by patford on Jun 25, 2016 10:52:40 GMT -5
With other options having been explored I can't imagine (particularly given his age) why Wilkerson isn't given a shot.
Also could the moderators here possibly revisit the scouting report on him? The velocity of his fastball is reported as 88-90 (touching 92) on the scouting report and it now seems 90-92 (touching 94) is more accurate.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 27, 2016 20:38:40 GMT -5
With other options having been explored I can't imagine (particularly given his age) why Wilkerson isn't given a shot. Also could the moderators here possibly revisit the scouting report on him? The velocity of his fastball is reported as 88-90 (touching 92) on the scouting report and it now seems 90-92 (touching 94) is more accurate. Let me take the opportunity to point out that the moderators on the Forum are not the same as the people who write the scouting reports for the site. Often made mistake, and both do a great job at what they do. That said, that scouting report on this site was updated this season. So, not sure where you're getting that velo from, but it's not what we've seen in person. If you need something more recent, Brian McPherson recently described the pitch as "rarely topping 90 mph" www.providencejournal.com/sports/20160622/chiefs-6-pawsox-4-aaron-wilkerson-strikes-out-four-in-loss |
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Post by patford on Jun 27, 2016 21:14:42 GMT -5
Thanks Chris, I read the "Fringe Five" report that was linked above. Perhaps he is far enough removed from his TJ surgery that he's gained some velocity? Anyhow to me a guy at that age is in a position where he's not going to learn a whole lot more. In the case of Wilkerson he isn't battling for control (such as Henry Owens). With things going like they are with the Red Sox I can't see why he isn't given a shot. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-62/"Aaron Wilkerson, RHP, Boston (Profile) It’s possible to make rough projections for a player’s career WAR — or his probability of reaching the majors at all — based on the slot within the amateur draft at which he’s selected. A top-five pick produces roughly eight wins over the course of his career, for example; a pick in the 40s, usually fewer than two. Applying this sort of methodology to Aaron Wilkerson’s career is problematic, however — on account, that is, of how he wasn’t drafted at all. A product of NAIA school Cumberland University, Wilkerson has survived a Tommy John procedure and no fewer than three independent leagues en route to his current job with Double-A Portland in the Boston system. The 26-year-old Wilkerson has been excellent in affiliated ball, recording strikeout and walk rates of 26.9% and 6.7%, respectively. He’s been definitively old for his levels, but also hasn’t succeeded merely by polish. Consider: the fastballs in the video below were recorded at 92 and 94 mph. The start to his 2016 campaign has been as good as possible: over two starts and 10.2 innings, Wilkerson has produced a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 39 total batters. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2016 21:24:32 GMT -5
I'm wondering if those are from the Reading stadium gun or something. Cistulli is a writer and not a scout - which isn't a criticism at all, as I'm not a scout either and he's a helluva lot better writer than I am. I just tend to look to him more for analysis and prose than for scouting inputs of that kind.
At this point though, whether Wilkerson's fastball touches 91 or 94 is sort of irrelevant. Boston's rotation only goes three deep right now. Even if Wilkerson is a smoke-and-mirrors minor league guy it's not like they'd be any worse off for finding out.
And hey, maybe there is something there. I'm just going to go ahead and dream on Aaron Wilkerson starting Game Four of the World Series. Because how bonkers is that?
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2016 21:44:19 GMT -5
The velo readings in the Cistulli Fangraphs post are from the stadium gun, which is often a few mph higher than it should be.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 28, 2016 12:21:49 GMT -5
What intrigued me about the guy, and what has continued to do so, is the outstanding command. He'll need every bit of that to have any impact in the majors, but he appears to have it.
Since showing up in the Sox system, his K/BB ratio has been at least 3.5 at every level. Moreover, the WHIP has been right around 1.0 everywhere as well. Perhaps the stuff is marginal, but so far the positive side of the ledger is hard to ignore: he walks hardly anyone, strikes out a bunch, and he allows few hits. I'm not sure what else, given that he's in AAA, he needs to do to get a look-see.
The numbers have me letting out a sigh. This was Brian Johnson before the injury and the anxiety, so there may be a fifth starter hiding in there waiting to emerge.
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Post by patford on Jun 28, 2016 14:01:26 GMT -5
I'm a bit confused as to why there is something of a mystery concerning the velocity of his FB. The "Fringe Prospects" article makes a point of saying he's got more than guile going for him and mentions 92-94.
And it's being reported in other places that he rarely cracks 90 mph and that the guns being used in some parks are off by several mph.
Well, he has been at Pawtucket for awhile now and I recall that while Kelly and Rodriquez were in rehab there were reports on their FB velocity and there are regular reports on Light's velocity so is no one at Pawtucket looking at Wilkerson's FB velocity?
And do we know that the gun used at Pawtucket is way off? Is it the case that when Light was up briefly with the Red Sox his velocity was several mph below what was clocked at Pawtucket?
Anyhow if he does get a phone call we will know soon enough if he sits as 89 or 92 in Boston.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 28, 2016 14:08:13 GMT -5
I'm a bit confused as to why there is something of a mystery concerning the velocity of his FB. The "Fringe Prospects" article makes a point of saying he's got more than guile going for him and mentions 92-94. And it's being reported in other places that he rarely cracks 90 mph and that the guns being used in some parks are off by several mph. Well, he has been at Pawtucket for awhile now and I recall that while Kelly and Rodriquez were in rehab there were reports on their FB velocity and there are regular reports on Light's velocity so is no one at Pawtucket looking at Wilkerson's FB velocity? And do we know that the gun used at Pawtucket is way off? Is it the case that when Light was up briefly with the Red Sox his velocity was several mph below what was clocked at Pawtucket? Anyhow if he does get a phone call we will know soon enough if he sits as 89 or 92 in Boston. If the gun in Pawtucket is off by 2-3 mph then Owens is not the 89 recently reported (I listened to the last game) but 86-87. But since Owens was also 88-90 in Boston, I'd say the Pawtucket gun is as accurate as Boston's. |
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