2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion

FWIW, Steamer projections:

Owens 4.33 ERA
Johnson 4.20 ERA

I think Cundall's last point about pitch count is an important one. Johnson seems to still be working his way to ~100 pitches, and I'd probably let him establish that in Pawtucket before a call-up. I'd call up Owens, of course however, theres the possibility he hits 95 pitches in 4+ innings. Lets cross our fingers.

Lucky Luccino was on D+C this morning and confirmed Pawsox were loosing Owens.

He seemed that this was a long term (as in forever) move if all goes to plan.

Keeping Owens in the rotation over Steven Wright when E-Rod comes back would be pretty terrible.

Owens. Can bring up Johnson once Clay gets injured or just keeps pitching horribly. Or if something happens to someone else. Good to have a solid guy like Johnson in AAA.

At this point, is it even a question? Johnson only has 9 innings over two games, and a whip of 1.39 in AAA. I could see him being better after he settles in, but it's way too early to bring him up. I would guess that he is even behind Elias until he stretches out.
Owens looks like Owens, great WHIP, concerning walks, his mistakes get killed. Perhaps Cuevas potentially coming up is (partially) a recognition that they need a long man if Owens is going to be in the rotation. Owens is the best option right now and his developmental needs are more long-term at this point. So if he can be a reasonable 5th starter now, let him work on his issues with the big club.

Here is some heresy for the board to consider: I think for the end of the rotation, wins DO matter, or more precisely, advanced pitching stats may not matter as much as how those stats are accumulated. That is, a boom or bust 5th starter who alternates between high quality starts and really poor starts can be more valuable than a steady, but mediocre 5th starter.. For a while, Wakefield was a good example of the boom or bust 5th starter (at the end of his career, but before he was cooked). A boom or bust starter gives the team a really good chance to win some games when the pitcher is on, and when he is off, well, then you have a guy like Cuevas to shovel poop for a 4-5 innings in a lost cause.

The peripherals for a boom and bust guy are going to look bad, the bust games would be ugly to watch, and it would be scary to have that guy pitch in the playoffs, but he might bring in more wins then a guy with similar or better pitching stats.

The obvious downside to the boom or bust guy would be stress put on the bullpen, especially if the rest of the rotation is undependable in regards to innings pitched. But that just means you have to have a long-man, and/or the ability to shuttle guys between MLB and AAA. The upside, in addition to some great pitching performances, would be that the boom or bust guy has the chance to develop and become more consistent and competent.

I am interested to see Johnson in the majors. I think he will be a steady, but mediocre end of the rotation guy who may have better stats than Owens, but Owens will have more dominant performances, which will make him more valuable than Johnson.

I don't really see why you feel the need to conflate an otherwise reasonable point with some sort of statement about advanced stats. Stats are just data, they do not force any conclusion, especially not the conclusion that all pitchers perform equally well each day they're on the mound. On the contrary, having stats that are meaningful even in small samples can help you identify true boom-or-bust pitchers and separate them from those where the variance in results is just a fluke. (Note: most of the pitchers you might think are in the former category are actually in the latter category.)

Anyway, while I'll admit that the Ryan Dempster model of pitcher (go 5-7 innings giving up 2-4 runs almost every time) is not very attractive in general, you also need to consider the rest of the team. If the Red Sox offense is what we hope it is (rather than what they showed us yesterday), then giving up 3 runs might still present a quite reasonable chance to win the game. If the offense sucks then, yeah, give me the boom or bust guy.

something something Wade Miley

[ducks tomatoes]

We might be talking about just one or two spot starts until ERod is ready. It's not that huge of a deal considering the difference between all of the options probably isn't great.

Yeah RDLR was a big changeup guy and he seems to have developed quite the HR problem in the majors (though it's hard to say how much of that is due to park factors and bad luck).

This doesn't seem to be a hard question ... Henry Owens is better than Brian Johnson right now as Johnson builds up strength (and, imo, he's also got a higher ceiling long-term because he misses bats and has a truly elite pitch). He's clearly the choice for a couple of starts.

Then he goes back down. He's a bad choice for bullpen help right now, and Hembree actually looked like he can be a useful guy at the back of the pen, sending Ramirez and probably Barnes back to AAA once Smith comes back.

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 10m10 minutes ago
Dave Dombrowski:"People make it sound like(Eduardo) Rodriguez is out for months. He pitches 5 innings this weekend. It won't be long"