SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
|
Post by jmei on Apr 20, 2016 10:20:19 GMT -5
With Kelly hitting the DL, I figured it was time to start a thread on the churn in the back of the major league club's rotation. Our own Ian Cundall has an article up on Owens versus Johnson today, with the following conclusion: What are your thoughts on Owens versus Johnson for the last rotation spot?
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 20, 2016 10:49:41 GMT -5
FWIW, Steamer projections:
Owens 4.33 ERA Johnson 4.20 ERA
|
|
|
Post by justen on Apr 20, 2016 11:18:32 GMT -5
I say give it to the guy who has the stronger ability to consistently throw strikes. I've always really liked Johnson so maybe I'm a bit biased, but we need someone with genuine composure on the mound.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Apr 20, 2016 11:28:52 GMT -5
I think Cundall's last point about pitch count is an important one. Johnson seems to still be working his way to ~100 pitches, and I'd probably let him establish that in Pawtucket before a call-up. I'd call up Owens, of course however, theres the possibility he hits 95 pitches in 4+ innings. Lets cross our fingers.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,194
Member is Online
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 20, 2016 11:59:13 GMT -5
I'll take BJ over Owens anytime but a the others said here, t will come to who's healthier and considering the fiasco of the last time they called Johnson in managing his schedule, it will be Owens who gets the call.
|
|
|
Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Apr 20, 2016 12:00:47 GMT -5
Lucky Luccino was on D+C this morning and confirmed Pawsox were loosing Owens.
He seemed that this was a long term (as in forever) move if all goes to plan.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 20, 2016 12:15:31 GMT -5
Understand the team choosing Henry Owens now, but I place my money on Brian Johnson. Johnson has had some terrible luck and timing over the last couple of years. He is so much more consistent, and IMO we down play his "stuff" too much. I like Henry and am rooting for him to secure a spot in our rotation (for good), but the outcome is very much up in the air.
I can see this change of events (Kelly on DL) be a boon instead of a minus. Kelly to me is ticketed for the pen.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 20, 2016 12:38:40 GMT -5
Keeping Owens in the rotation over Steven Wright when E-Rod comes back would be pretty terrible.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2016 12:42:46 GMT -5
Keeping Owens in the rotation over Steven Wright when E-Rod comes back would be pretty terrible. Unless he's lights out I guess.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 20, 2016 13:01:08 GMT -5
Owens. Can bring up Johnson once Clay gets injured or just keeps pitching horribly. Or if something happens to someone else. Good to have a solid guy like Johnson in AAA.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 20, 2016 13:08:44 GMT -5
I prefer Owens to Johnson, but I think it's in the same vein as preferring Swihart to Vazquez.
I like Owens' ceiling a lot more than Johnson's (as I do with Swihart to Vazquez). However, if the Sox are looking for more certainty now I'd say Johnson would be the call over Owens (just as Vazquez is the call over Swihart). As Swihart has defense to work on in AAA, Owens has command issues he still needs to iron out at Pawtucket.
I think Johnson is more of a finished product, at least once he can get back to 100 pitches/game.
As far as Wright goes I think it'll work out. If Wright continues to pitch well, he'll keep his spot I think. Sooner or later Buchholz will need some time off. I think there'll be enough starts to give Wright and Owens and perhaps Johnson if further injury or ineffectiveness occurs. I think the outsider here become Elias, who will probably wind up in the bullpen at some point if they determine they need a long man to replace the role Wright was supposed to have at the beginning of the season.
|
|
|
Post by jclmontana on Apr 20, 2016 13:15:47 GMT -5
At this point, is it even a question? Johnson only has 9 innings over two games, and a whip of 1.39 in AAA. I could see him being better after he settles in, but it's way too early to bring him up. I would guess that he is even behind Elias until he stretches out. Owens looks like Owens, great WHIP, concerning walks, his mistakes get killed. Perhaps Cuevas potentially coming up is (partially) a recognition that they need a long man if Owens is going to be in the rotation. Owens is the best option right now and his developmental needs are more long-term at this point. So if he can be a reasonable 5th starter now, let him work on his issues with the big club.
Here is some heresy for the board to consider: I think for the end of the rotation, wins DO matter, or more precisely, advanced pitching stats may not matter as much as how those stats are accumulated. That is, a boom or bust 5th starter who alternates between high quality starts and really poor starts can be more valuable than a steady, but mediocre 5th starter.. For a while, Wakefield was a good example of the boom or bust 5th starter (at the end of his career, but before he was cooked). A boom or bust starter gives the team a really good chance to win some games when the pitcher is on, and when he is off, well, then you have a guy like Cuevas to shovel poop for a 4-5 innings in a lost cause. The peripherals for a boom and bust guy are going to look bad, the bust games would be ugly to watch, and it would be scary to have that guy pitch in the playoffs, but he might bring in more wins then a guy with similar or better pitching stats.
The obvious downside to the boom or bust guy would be stress put on the bullpen, especially if the rest of the rotation is undependable in regards to innings pitched. But that just means you have to have a long-man, and/or the ability to shuttle guys between MLB and AAA. The upside, in addition to some great pitching performances, would be that the boom or bust guy has the chance to develop and become more consistent and competent.
I am interested to see Johnson in the majors. I think he will be a steady, but mediocre end of the rotation guy who may have better stats than Owens, but Owens will have more dominant performances, which will make him more valuable than Johnson.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 20, 2016 13:23:26 GMT -5
I sense that Joe Kelly threw his last pitch as a starter yesterday. I saw a shot of DD in his box shaking his head. Steven Wright has earned a spot in the rotation & it didn't look like a fluke. He pitched well against REALLY good line-ups. Averaging over 6 IP per. When the dust settles (E Rod coming back, Owens sent back down) we still need a long man in the BP Kelly). Now if Hank throws 2 shutouts, that's a different conversation.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 20, 2016 13:58:34 GMT -5
Here is some heresy for the board to consider: I think for the end of the rotation, wins DO matter, or more precisely, advanced pitching stats may not matter as much as how those stats are accumulated. That is, a boom or bust 5th starter who alternates between high quality starts and really poor starts can be more valuable than a steady, but mediocre 5th starter.. For a while, Wakefield was a good example of the boom or bust 5th starter (at the end of his career, but before he was cooked). A boom or bust starter gives the team a really good chance to win some games when the pitcher is on, and when he is off, well, then you have a guy like Cuevas to shovel poop for a 4-5 innings in a lost cause. I don't really see why you feel the need to conflate an otherwise reasonable point with some sort of statement about advanced stats. Stats are just data, they do not force any conclusion, especially not the conclusion that all pitchers perform equally well each day they're on the mound. On the contrary, having stats that are meaningful even in small samples can help you identify true boom-or-bust pitchers and separate them from those where the variance in results is just a fluke. (Note: most of the pitchers you might think are in the former category are actually in the latter category.) Anyway, while I'll admit that the Ryan Dempster model of pitcher (go 5-7 innings giving up 2-4 runs almost every time) is not very attractive in general, you also need to consider the rest of the team. If the Red Sox offense is what we hope it is (rather than what they showed us yesterday), then giving up 3 runs might still present a quite reasonable chance to win the game. If the offense sucks then, yeah, give me the boom or bust guy.
|
|
|
Post by jclmontana on Apr 20, 2016 14:24:43 GMT -5
Here is some heresy for the board to consider: I think for the end of the rotation, wins DO matter, or more precisely, advanced pitching stats may not matter as much as how those stats are accumulated. That is, a boom or bust 5th starter who alternates between high quality starts and really poor starts can be more valuable than a steady, but mediocre 5th starter.. For a while, Wakefield was a good example of the boom or bust 5th starter (at the end of his career, but before he was cooked). A boom or bust starter gives the team a really good chance to win some games when the pitcher is on, and when he is off, well, then you have a guy like Cuevas to shovel poop for a 4-5 innings in a lost cause. I don't really see why you feel the need to conflate an otherwise reasonable point with some sort of statement about advanced stats. Stats are just data, they do not force any conclusion, especially not the conclusion that all pitchers perform equally well each day they're on the mound. On the contrary, having stats that are meaningful even in small samples can help you identify true boom-or-bust pitchers and separate them from those where the variance in results is just a fluke. (Note: most of the pitchers you might think are in the former category are actually in the latter category.) Anyway, while I'll admit that the Ryan Dempster model of pitcher (go 5-7 innings giving up 2-4 runs almost every time) is not very attractive in general, you also need to consider the rest of the team. If the Red Sox offense is what we hope it is (rather than what they showed us yesterday), then giving up 3 runs might still present a quite reasonable chance to win the game. If the offense sucks then, yeah, give me the boom or bust guy. No intention to attack advanced stats, though I have been on board long enough that I should have made that clear. And there was no conflating. But I think you restated the exact point I was trying to make, but perhaps even better. cheers.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 20, 2016 15:01:31 GMT -5
something something Wade Miley
[ducks tomatoes]
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 20, 2016 15:38:27 GMT -5
something something Wade Miley [ ducks tomatoes] Yes, we know you don't like Steven Wright. For the rest of us, the plan seems to be working just fine so far.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2016 15:51:31 GMT -5
We might be talking about just one or two spot starts until ERod is ready. It's not that huge of a deal considering the difference between all of the options probably isn't great.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Apr 20, 2016 16:08:55 GMT -5
Owens is trending away from being a heavy heavy flyball guy, which is good, but I also worry about trusting guys numbers in the minors when it's largely all about the changeup when the guy doesn't have control on the fastball. ML hitters are a different breed. Would really love it if Owens panned out tho.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 20, 2016 16:31:13 GMT -5
Owens is trending away from being a heavy heavy flyball guy, which is good, but I also worry about trusting guys numbers in the minors when it's largely all about the changeup when the guy doesn't have control on the fastball. ML hitters are a different breed. Would really love it if Owens panned out tho. Yeah RDLR was a big changeup guy and he seems to have developed quite the HR problem in the majors (though it's hard to say how much of that is due to park factors and bad luck).
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,682
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Apr 20, 2016 16:35:43 GMT -5
Owens is trending away from being a heavy heavy flyball guy, which is good, but I also worry about trusting guys numbers in the minors when it's largely all about the changeup when the guy doesn't have control on the fastball. ML hitters are a different breed. Would really love it if Owens panned out tho. Yeah RDLR was a big changeup guy and he seems to have developed quite the HR problem in the majors (though it's hard to say how much of that is due to park factors and bad luck). He also has always been much worse at missing bats. Probably a good deal of harder contact than Owens.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 20, 2016 18:07:08 GMT -5
This doesn't seem to be a hard question ... Henry Owens is better than Brian Johnson right now as Johnson builds up strength (and, imo, he's also got a higher ceiling long-term because he misses bats and has a truly elite pitch). He's clearly the choice for a couple of starts.
Then he goes back down. He's a bad choice for bullpen help right now, and Hembree actually looked like he can be a useful guy at the back of the pen, sending Ramirez and probably Barnes back to AAA once Smith comes back.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 20, 2016 18:15:58 GMT -5
This doesn't seem to be a hard question ... Henry Owens is better than Brian Johnson right now as Johnson builds up strength (and, imo, he's also got a higher ceiling long-term because he misses bats and has a truly elite pitch). He's clearly the choice for a couple of starts. Maybe you should call yourself henrythetaoist instead.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2016 4:35:53 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo 10m10 minutes ago Dave Dombrowski:"People make it sound like(Eduardo) Rodriguez is out for months. He pitches 5 innings this weekend. It won't be long"
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 21, 2016 4:50:25 GMT -5
|
|
|