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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by thursty on Jun 3, 2016 9:53:01 GMT -5
Kelly did some new shoulder exercises and reports that the shoulder is in the best shape of its life. He then has back-to-back games with the exceptional fastball command that has always been the one thing he lacks to be a frontline starter (in fact, it's often been so supbar as to make him below average). Kelly believes there is a causal connection. It might be random, but it also makes sense that there would be at least some improvement. It could be slight, though. In his next start, he had awful FB command again. However, in both of the MLB starts (and probably in his last rehab stat), he has gone back to throwing a lot of FBs, whereas his success last fall came by throwing an ordinary number, and using his offspeed stuff much more. If, in fact, both of the following two things are true, Kelly should be very good. If one is true, perfectly adequate as a 5th starter. 1) He actually has significantly better FB command than before. 2) He and his catchers will use the revised pitch mix on any days when the FB command is lacking and only throw lots of FBs on days when it is plus (which would be more or less always and never if #1 is not true). And if neither are true?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 3, 2016 12:54:41 GMT -5
Kelly did some new shoulder exercises and reports that the shoulder is in the best shape of its life. He then has back-to-back games with the exceptional fastball command that has always been the one thing he lacks to be a frontline starter (in fact, it's often been so supbar as to make him below average). Kelly believes there is a causal connection. It might be random, but it also makes sense that there would be at least some improvement. It could be slight, though. In his next start, he had awful FB command again. However, in both of the MLB starts (and probably in his last rehab stat), he has gone back to throwing a lot of FBs, whereas his success last fall came by throwing an ordinary number, and using his offspeed stuff much more. If, in fact, both of the following two things are true, Kelly should be very good. If one is true, perfectly adequate as a 5th starter. 1) He actually has significantly better FB command than before. 2) He and his catchers will use the revised pitch mix on any days when the FB command is lacking and only throw lots of FBs on days when it is plus (which would be more or less always and never if #1 is not true). And if neither are true? Then he gets sent to the minor leagues and a number of us who are tired of waiting for this 28 year old pitcher to reach his potential or even 70% of it are about at the point of giving up on him. I'm quite tired of Buchholz and quite tired of Joe Kelly. Neither one are really reliable. I'm ready to move on from both of them.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 14, 2016 9:38:41 GMT -5
Sunday 6/12/16 Tori Lovullo was interviewed by Rob Bradford on WEEI and said that E Rod is currently at "Mid Spring Training Form"
The Red Sox are currently going with a 4 man rotation and the best option in the Entire Organization in mid June with 1st place on the line is a Pitcher with a Knee Brace who is in "Mid Spring Season Form". This speaks volumes as to the truly sad state that Starting Pitching is in in this organization. E Rod is a better option to be the #4 starter than; Buchholz, Kelly, Owens, Elias, Cuevas, Johnson (all of whom are on the 40 man roster) or O'Sullivan or Wilkerson who are both pitching well in AAA.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 14, 2016 11:10:55 GMT -5
Sox have yet to announce starter for one of the weekend games, the other going to Porcello. Elias seems to be the consensus. He last pitched on Friday and would be scheduled for Wednesday or Thursday. So we'll have to watch whether he starts in Pawtucket or just gets in a few innings.
Aaron Wilkerson is a pitcher I've been watching with interest. He was 11-4 for three teams last season and is 4-2 with Portland (1.83 era) and Pawtucket (2.25) so far this year. Has a good mix of pitches with some swings and misses. He's 27 with no ML experience as an undrafted starter who began his career in Indy ball. Look for him in Boston at some point this season.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2016 13:06:06 GMT -5
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 17, 2016 10:16:23 GMT -5
Price 8 Home Runs last 6 starts Porcello 6 Home Runs last 6 starts Wright 2 Home Runs last 6 starts Buchholz 8 Home Runs last 5 starts E Rod 6 Home Runs last 3 starts
Uehara 2 Home Runs last 8 Appearances Tazawa 2 Home Runs last 8 Appearances Barnes 1 Home Runs last 8 Appearances Hembree 2 Home Runs last 8 Appearances
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Post by Coreno on Jun 17, 2016 10:30:53 GMT -5
Yeah the walks and Homeruns are really killing our pitching
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 21, 2016 10:27:53 GMT -5
In the last 35 days the Red Sox have played 31 games, they've gone 15-16 and given up a total of 43 Home Runs accounting for 68 Runs .
The Starters have given up 32 Home Runs in those 31 games.
The Bullpen has given up 11 Home Runs in those 31 games.
22 with 0 on base 17 with 1 on base 4 with 2 on base
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Post by telson13 on Jun 21, 2016 13:43:56 GMT -5
In the last 35 days the Red Sox have played 31 games, they've gone 15-16 and given up a total of 43 Home Runs accounting for 68 Runs . The Starters have given up 32 Home Runs in those 31 games. The Bullpen has given up 11 Home Runs in those 31 games. 22 with 0 on base 17 with 1 on base 4 with 2 on base You realize that HR/flyball rate is highly variable, and a substantial portion of what you're implying is poor performance is actually statistical variation, right? That's why FIP is converted to xFIP by normalizing HR/FB rate...to more accurately predict future performance based on HR/FB regression to the mean.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 23, 2016 9:37:07 GMT -5
In the last 37 days the Red Sox have played 33 games, they've gone 15-18 and given up a total of 48 Home Runs accounting for 75 Runs .
The Starters have given up 35 Home Runs in those 33 games.
The Bullpen has given up 13 Home Runs in those 33 games.
25 with 0 on base 19 with 1 on base 4 with 2 on base
[/quote]You realize that HR/flyball rate is highly variable, and a substantial portion of what you're implying is poor performance is actually statistical variation, right? That's why FIP is converted to xFIP by normalizing HR/FB rate...to more accurately predict future performance based on HR/FB regression to the mean.[/quote] [/p]
I'm saying it's the biggest, most constant reason they are loosing games.
Everybody seems to be complaining about many different things. Hanley not hitting, unable to hit a sac fly, unable to lay down a bunt, base running, fielding errors, throwing errors, Farrell game decisions, the line up, etc... on and on and on. All the little things within the game that can win or loose a game. But the biggest constant in the past month+ is the inability of the pitching staff to keep the ball in the park and it is the biggest reason why the Red Sox have gone 15-18 over that 33 game stretch.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 23, 2016 12:38:51 GMT -5
Or any other possible way they give up runs or not score more runs...
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 23, 2016 12:42:35 GMT -5
I was getting worried about Texas this weekend. But, with Colby Lewis hitting the DL, 3/5 of their rotation is on the shelf. We may have a fighting chance. We get Nick Martinez, A J Griffin & Martin Perez. Those 3 haven't been exactly lighting it up. We're throwing Price, Wright, Buch.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 23, 2016 19:04:24 GMT -5
In the last 37 days the Red Sox have played 33 games, they've gone 15-18 and given up a total of 48 Home Runs accounting for 75 Runs .
The Starters have given up 35 Home Runs in those 33 games.
The Bullpen has given up 13 Home Runs in those 33 games.
25 with 0 on base 19 with 1 on base 4 with 2 on base
You realize that HR/flyball rate is highly variable, and a substantial portion of what you're implying is poor performance is actually statistical variation, right? That's why FIP is converted to xFIP by normalizing HR/FB rate...to more accurately predict future performance based on HR/FB regression to the mean.[/quote] [/p]
I'm saying it's the biggest, most constant reason they are loosing games.
Everybody seems to be complaining about many different things. Hanley not hitting, unable to hit a sac fly, unable to lay down a bunt, base running, fielding errors, throwing errors, Farrell game decisions, the line up, etc... on and on and on. All the little things within the game that can win or loose a game. But the biggest constant in the past month+ is the inability of the pitching staff to keep the ball in the park and it is the biggest reason why the Red Sox have gone 15-18 over that 33 game stretch.
[/quote] I think I'm missing your point, then. The HR rate will drop, because regression to the mean is inevitable. It's not about "their inability to keep the ball in the park" as much as it is that they're having unfortunate luck with fly balls. Similar to the disastrous pitching results at the beginning of last year (poor defense and bad BABIP luck), they're going through a stretch where the results, as a staff, are worse than how they're actually pitching. Now, if you're saying people are getting too worked up over those other issues, I'd agree. But if you're saying people **should be more worked up over the pitching**, I'd say that you're way off base. The team, after today's win, is 4 games under their run differential-predicted W%. That's bad luck, combined with some poor late-game management. Their offense has also gone relatively cold. They'll snap out of it and go on a tear...that's baseball. For example, Rodriguez was working at 94-96 in the fifth inning, whereas he had been 91-92. Wright has shown no evidence of regressing. Price has been more or less his usual self (sans about 2 mph on his FB) since Pedroia noted the mechanical issue. Porcello has been relatively cool...he may be due to get hot again. And the bullpen has been homer-happy. Performance is fluid, and in baseball, often obfuscated by bad luck. There's very little reason to panic or presume that the current HR woes are going to continue for any extended stretch.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 23, 2016 23:31:51 GMT -5
Eduardo Rodriguez had a 3.45 xFIP and SIERA Wednesday night, which would have been his 8th best start of his 21 last year. And he did it with an incredibly simplified pitch mix. Versus the average of his three previous starts (the third column prorates Wednesday to the same total pitches):
4-Seam 45 77 66 2-Seam 11 0 0 Cutter 6 4 3 Slider 10 0 0 Change 15 21 18 And the HR he gave up to Frazier goes out in only 6 other ballparks. This was very promising.
Meanwhile, Clay's 3.38 xFIP and 3.23 SIERA would have ranked 9th among his 18 starts last year, when he had a 3.30 and 3.35 on the season, respectively. In terms of K, SO, and GB, that was basically the Clay who was one of the 15 best starters in MLB last year, per game (weighting SIERA and bWAR equally). That's only less promising because he's ... Clay Buchholz.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 24, 2016 0:20:12 GMT -5
Eduardo Rodriguez had a 3.45 xFIP and SIERA Wednesday night, which would have been his 8th best start of his 21 last year. And he did it with an incredibly simplified pitch mix. Versus the average of his three previous starts (the third column prorates Wednesday to the same total pitches): 4-Seam 45 77 66 2-Seam 11 0 0 Cutter 6 4 3 Slider 10 0 0 Change 15 21 18 And the HR he gave up to Frazier goes out in only 6 other ballparks. This was very promising. Meanwhile, Clay's 3.38 xFIP and 3.23 SIERA would have ranked 9th among his 18 starts last year, when he had a 3.30 and 3.35 on the season, respectively. In terms of K, SO, and GB, that was basically the Clay who was one of the 15 best starters in MLB last year, per game (weighting SIERA and bWAR equally). That's only less promising because he's ... Clay Buchholz. Im confident that Rodriguez is going to come back into form. Beyond simply approach, the eyeball test of "stuff" says he's about to turn the corner. Clay...meh. He pitched alright in relief and his last start, but...yeah, he's himself. I do think he's capable of serving as a viable #5 though. I'm OK with the rotation as constituted. The bullpen needs a little work. I'm hoping that those issues can be solved internally by giving looks to Light, Martin, and/or maybe Austin Maddox. I hold out hope that Barnes can take a step forward, too, refining his FB command and turning one of his two secondaries into a reliable solid off speed pitch. He throws gas, and both the curve and change can flash plus, he just needs a little better location and more consistency.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 24, 2016 9:38:19 GMT -5
[ I think I'm missing your point, then. The HR rate will drop, because regression to the mean is inevitable. It's not about "their inability to keep the ball in the park" as much as it is that they're having unfortunate luck with fly balls. Similar to the disastrous pitching results at the beginning of last year (poor defense and bad BABIP luck), they're going through a stretch where the results, as a staff, are worse than how they're actually pitching. Now, if you're saying people are getting too worked up over those other issues, I'd agree. But if you're saying people **should be more worked up over the pitching**, I'd say that you're way off base. The team, after today's win, is 4 games under their run differential-predicted W%. That's bad luck, combined with some poor late-game management. Their offense has also gone relatively cold. They'll snap out of it and go on a tear...that's baseball. For example, Rodriguez was working at 94-96 in the fifth inning, whereas he had been 91-92. Wright has shown no evidence of regressing. Price has been more or less his usual self (sans about 2 mph on his FB) since Pedroia noted the mechanical issue. Porcello has been relatively cool...he may be due to get hot again. And the bullpen has been homer-happy. Performance is fluid, and in baseball, often obfuscated by bad luck. There's very little reason to panic or presume that the current HR woes are going to continue for any extended stretch.They're having unfortunate luck with fly balls? That's bad Luck? How about bad Pitching. Presume that the current HR woes are going to continue for any extended stretch? 34 games IS an extended stretch.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2016 14:15:00 GMT -5
The margin of error between a home run and a regular fly ball is astronomically low, like probably a tenth of an inch or less. Even when a pitcher throws a meatball, it should not be getting hit out of the park much more than 10% of the time someone hits a fly ball because batters are not perfect.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 24, 2016 14:26:35 GMT -5
[ I think I'm missing your point, then. The HR rate will drop, because regression to the mean is inevitable. It's not about "their inability to keep the ball in the park" as much as it is that they're having unfortunate luck with fly balls. Similar to the disastrous pitching results at the beginning of last year (poor defense and bad BABIP luck), they're going through a stretch where the results, as a staff, are worse than how they're actually pitching. Now, if you're saying people are getting too worked up over those other issues, I'd agree. But if you're saying people **should be more worked up over the pitching**, I'd say that you're way off base. The team, after today's win, is 4 games under their run differential-predicted W%. That's bad luck, combined with some poor late-game management. Their offense has also gone relatively cold. They'll snap out of it and go on a tear...that's baseball. For example, Rodriguez was working at 94-96 in the fifth inning, whereas he had been 91-92. Wright has shown no evidence of regressing. Price has been more or less his usual self (sans about 2 mph on his FB) since Pedroia noted the mechanical issue. Porcello has been relatively cool...he may be due to get hot again. And the bullpen has been homer-happy. Performance is fluid, and in baseball, often obfuscated by bad luck. There's very little reason to panic or presume that the current HR woes are going to continue for any extended stretch.They're having unfortunate luck with fly balls? That's bad Luck? How about bad Pitching. Presume that the current HR woes are going to continue for any extended stretch? 34 games IS an extended stretch. You clearly need to read up on FIP and xFIP. And while you're at it, read about HR/flyball rates. If you think the team is going to keep up their HR rate for the season, I'd say it's unlikely. And when it does drop down again, and you claim that they've "fixed" something, most likely you'll be wrong.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 24, 2016 14:31:09 GMT -5
The margin of error between a home run and a regular fly ball is astronomically low, like probably a tenth of an inch or less. Even when a pitcher throws a meatball, it should not be getting hit out of the park much more than 10% of the time someone hits a fly ball because batters are not perfect. Resistance is futile. I will crush your higher-order analysis and statistical ramblings with my big rock here. I know it's real because I can see and touch it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 25, 2016 0:25:15 GMT -5
The margin of error between a home run and a regular fly ball is astronomically low, like probably a tenth of an inch or less. Even when a pitcher throws a meatball, it should not be getting hit out of the park much more than 10% of the time someone hits a fly ball because batters are not perfect. I looked into this very thoroughly with pitch/fx in 2008 and 2009. I was breaking down hitter performance when they swung at pitches right down the middle (like the one Mookie hit out tonight), and the performance is much less impressive than you'd guess. Consider this: every time one of those pitches gets crushed, you notice, but when one gets fouled back or even popped up or hit on the ground, it's far less often that the color guy says "he missed one there." Pitcher luck on this is indeed extreme. There's no evidence at all that short-term fluctuations in HR/OF-FB, when they are not accompanied by a decline in K/BB, have any meaning at all. There was a year when Lester was getting crushed by HR's early, and I looked into that with pitch/fx, too, and, sure enough, almost all of the badness could be blamed on just bad luck. Guys do have real variation in true HR/OF-FB (both from skill and ballpark), but the variation is not very large and it's best measured over a career of at least several years. This is just like BABIP, of course.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jun 26, 2016 18:54:01 GMT -5
All this 'evidence' that we don't need another starter bases it on WS teams from the past several teams, well isn't that the definition of putting the cart before the horse. Don't we have to win a few rounds to get there if we make the playoffs? This reminds of the comedy, Fridays when the pastor states alot of you are asking questions saying why are you seeing fast woman and driving fancy cars but I'm here to tell you, don't ask questions.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2016 10:52:06 GMT -5
So, the Red Sox rank 19th in MLB in rotation ERA-.
Clearly they need to acquire someone really good, right?
No. No.
Rank of top 3 starters ERA-. Note that the Red Sox include a 105 from David Price.
Team ERA- Cubs 54 Indians 64 Dodgers 66 Mets 69 Rangers 70 Giants 72 Nats 74 B Jays 74 Wh. Sox 75 Marlins 79 Red Sox 80 Yankees 85 Tigers 85 Brewers 86 Braves 88 Padres 88 Phils 89 Marin. 90 Astros 90 Dbacks 91 Orioles 93 Cards 94 Royals 94 Rockies 95 Rays 98 A's 99 Reds 102 Angels 108 Pirates 108 Twins 117 If your top 3 starters rank 11th and one of them is David Price with a 105, there is no real need to get a top 3 guy. When you substitute Price's FIP- they're actually in the Nationals / Blue Jays / White Sox territory, or just behind it when you consider that Wright gives up more UER than usual. That's a playoff-caliber top 3. Not an above-average such top 3, but when you have an elite offense, there is absolutely no rationale for trying to make it better.
Here is the ranking for all the other starters. You see this coming, I bet.
Team ERA- Cubs 74 Nats 99 Rangers 101 Indians 106 Mets 108 B Jays 111 Cards 117 Astros 117 Marin. 117 Rays 119 Rockies 128 Phils 128 Dbacks 129 Dodgers 130 Marlins 130 Angels 130 Pirates 132 Giants 134 Braves 135 Reds 138 Yankees 138 Brewers 141 Royals 142 Tigers 143 Orioles 144 A's 144 Twins 146 Padres 147 Wh. Sox 148 Red Sox 165 Yes, the difference between 29 and 30 is greater than the difference between 17 and 29.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2016 11:17:22 GMT -5
Red Sox 165 Yes, the difference between 29 and 30 is greater than the difference between 17 and 29. How unexpected is that result? Ignoring O'Sullivan ... Name IP 2015 2016 Clay Buchholz 67.0 77 142 Ed. Rodriguez 29.3 91 193 Joe Kelly 22.3 115 190 Henry Owens 12.3 109 115 Roenis Elias 4.0 107 353 What you want from these 2 slots to be a pennant contender is 110 to 120. Even if Buchholz disappears, you expect to get that.
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Post by bnich on Jun 28, 2016 11:36:45 GMT -5
I'd say it's about time the Sox see what they have in Aaron Wilkerson. He can't surely perform any worse than ERod did against Tampa last night, right?
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Post by telson13 on Jun 28, 2016 12:27:31 GMT -5
Uggh. I was clearly wrong about Rodriguez. The 4/5 slots on this team have been (historically?) atrocious.
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