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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2016 16:14:56 GMT -5
SIERA Leaderboard rank (XFIP- and WPA rank in parens), out of 128 SP with 20+ IP. WPA, of course, sacrifices as much predictive value as possible to get the most blindly descriptive number, which is why I rather like it. It measures the actual contribution to winning.
4. Price (3, 105) 8. Porcello (12, 16) 16. Lester (9, 11) 17. Hill (29, 53) 25. R. de la Rosa (36, 70) 41. Lackey (30, 92) 68. Miley (63, 103) 73. Wright (85, 37)
Price's quality vs. results differential is not likely to persist (and RDLR and Lackey have the same thing going but in lower-case). Wright, however, is a guy who breaks the SIERA and xFIP rules. He's had #2 value so far.
Porcello, meanwhile, is putting the lie to my winter insistence that he was an established #2 -- by pitching like an ace and getting borderline ace / #2 results.
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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2016 16:53:30 GMT -5
Porcello, meanwhile, is putting the lie to my winter insistence that he was an established #2 -- by pitching like an ace and getting borderline ace / #2 results. Interestingly, his K%-BB% split with bases empty / men on is as terrible as it's always been - just that the baseline is improved by an incredible margin. 31.1% K vs. 4.4% BB - he's basically Clayton Kershaw as long as there's noone on. The difference is that Kershaw stays just as good with baserunners, while Porcello (this season) drops to "only" 21.1% K and 5.3% BB.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 3, 2016 22:12:50 GMT -5
Rotation 2016 from what I have heard from folks inside the Org 1) Price - he is getting as much leash as he needs he carries himself like an Ace, he is a great guy that is already well liked and even if he isn't killing it right now he gives the team the feeling that they can win any night he pitches and that confidence is having an impact 2) Porcello- he is a red Sox for as long as Dombo is the GM/ President . I am told he is very well liked in the clubhouse and his work ethic is top notch. They feel they got a deal for him and will try to keep him around 3) Buch- Unlike Porcello people are sort of done with Buch , he comes off as flippant in losses and it infuriates the execs. He needs to show something for a game or two and they will try to flip him at the deadline, but if he keeps being up and down he will see himself sinking in the rotation 4) Wright - Wakefield believes he could be better than he was and says he wants to be the greatest knuckle ball pitcher ever and works tirelessly, he will have to fail in a big way to lose his spot or others will have to dominate. 5) Owens - He has had too many solid outings at AAA and the stuff is too good to leave him there, until ER is ready to come back he will get every chance to show what he can do. He is the guy that will push Buch out with one or two more strong outings 6) Kelly - Everyone but him seems to feel he is better in the bullpen that will have to play out in a trade at some point. But we like having the depth he provides in case of injury (ie: Clay) 7) there is a deal that is essentially done sending Garret Richards from the Angels for a slew of players JBJ was one of them, but that may have changed . If the Angels slide in June this will get done, and it will probably cost us some top prospects , but getting stronger pitching is DDs #1 ,2 and 3 priority . seems like a lot , but GR is a cost controlled stud who has already proven he can pitch in the majors. 7) As always, interesting stuff. I like Garret Richards but I wouldn't be too high on dealing JBJ unless the Sox are getting a big corner OF bat (which would move Mookie to CF)and I don't see the Sox going after that kind of a corner bat nor do I see them trying out Rusney in CF at this point to replace JBJ. Are you saying that they would try to flip Buchholz for a corner OF bat and use Bradley and others like a Swihart and other prospects to obtain Richards?
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Post by dcsoxfan on May 4, 2016 8:08:21 GMT -5
I have a hard time imagining the Angels would trade Richards to the Red Sox without receiving at least one of Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza, and I wouldn't trade six years of either Benintendi or Moncada for two and a half years of Richards.
I can't imagine the Red Sox acquiring an impact starter (Richards, Gray, etc.) for anything less than a package of Devers, Swihart, Rodriguez and some lesser prospects, and I am really not confident that would be enough.
I think the current roster is strong enough to remain competitive all year and probably but not certainly make the playoffs. I think there is also enough aggregate talent in the system to remain competitive for a decade. Unfortunately, I can't see Henry/Dombrowski passing up the opportunity to strengthen the pitching even at a large cost in future talent.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 4, 2016 8:12:37 GMT -5
I have a hard time imagining the Angels would trade Richards to the Red Sox without receiving at least one of Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza, and I wouldn't trade six years of either Benintendi or Moncada for two and a half years of Richards. I can't imagine the Red Sox acquiring an impact starter (Richards, Gray, etc.) for anything less than a package of Devers, Swihart, Rodriguez and some lesser prospects, and I am really not confident that would be enough. I think the current roster is strong enough to remain competitive all year and probably but not certainly make the playoffs. I think there is also enough aggregate talent in the system to remain competitive for a decade. Unfortunately, I can't see Henry/Dombrowski passing up the opportunity to strengthen the pitching even at a large cost in future talent. You think a couple years of Richards is worth that on the trade market? Agree to disagree. Rodriguez could be just as good as him this year. I'm more afraid of DD trading Devers or Espinoza for him. There's no shot in hell that they'll get a package like the one you listed though. That's even worse than the Shelby Miller trade.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 4, 2016 9:02:49 GMT -5
My opinion (which I know means zero) is that Swihart/Castillo/Johnson should get you fairly good cost controlled #2. There are not a plethora of Swiharts running around.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 5, 2016 16:17:25 GMT -5
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi 6m6 minutes ago Garrett Richards now considered doubtful for Friday's scheduled start due to fatigue, source says.
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Post by telson13 on May 5, 2016 23:50:28 GMT -5
Abraham notes Porcello is 9-4, 3.00 in his last 13 starts. That's 1a territory, especially as he's been a sure-fire 6+ innings each time out. I've got to think Price starts pitching like himself sooner rather than later (I admit, the velo drop has me a little concerned, but it could just be the cold). If Buchholz can build of last night's success, and Wright maintain some semblance of his April, when Rodriguez comes back there's no reason to make any trades. That's a plenty-sufficient rotation. If ERod takes a step forward and Buchholz pitches like last year (for a nearly full season, of course), they'll have a very, very good rotation. I'm OK with Owens/Kelly/Johnson as AAA depth, too. I don't see any need to trade for a pitcher unless they get a steal, preferably of a breakout-candidate talent who isn't unreasonably costly in terms of prospects/talent and $. Because, truthfully, who are you going to replace (Buchholz?), and how significant of an improvement would it be? I just don't see the value unless the guy they get is a 1a/2 at the least, with plenty of control.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2016 2:30:11 GMT -5
One little addendum to the emergence of Wright is that, along with Shaw's similar breakout, it makes the Sox rookie class of 2015 start to look pretty impressive, when you add them to E-Rod, and possible solid or bright futures for Swihart, Owens, Hembree, Barnes, and Castillo.
That's a pretty good class shaping up to follow 2014's: Bogaerts, Betts, Vazquez, Bradley, and Holt. Which has a chance to end up historically great.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 6, 2016 6:22:52 GMT -5
Well maybe instead of getting a cost controlled #2 they get a rental player like they did with Peavy in 2013 at the deadline.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 6:44:26 GMT -5
Well maybe instead of getting a cost controlled #2 they get a rental player like they did with Peavy in 2013 at the deadline. Peavy wasn't a rental, he had a year and a half of team control left when acquired.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 6, 2016 6:47:53 GMT -5
The Sox are going to need someone to replace Buchholz in the near future, and they'll need some depth, but the other four guys in the rotation (after ERod gets back) are all under control for at least a couple more years. And there's still Kelly to deal with. Sure, you can never have enough pitching, and the starting depth in the minor leagues is pretty thin, but it's more a long-term problem than an immediate one to me. One that's possibly alleviated if there's a quality college starter available when the Sox pick in the draft.
Wright's emergence (and Porcello's to a much lesser extent) has really changed the complexion of the Sox fairly significantly and is probably the most significant development of the season so far.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 6, 2016 7:40:26 GMT -5
Well maybe instead of getting a cost controlled #2 they get a rental player like they did with Peavy in 2013 at the deadline. Peavy wasn't a rental, he had a year and a half of team control left when acquired. Well, you get the idea. Someone like 2013 Peavy or a little better than that minus the extra year.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 6, 2016 8:45:25 GMT -5
Owens next start would be scheduled on Tuesday vs. Oakland. Wonder if E-Rod's rehab will be complete by then?
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 8:48:57 GMT -5
Owens next start would be scheduled on Tuesday vs. Indians. Wonder if E-Rod's rehab will be complete by then? Rodriguez is scheduled to make a rehab start on Sunday, so I think we're getting one more Owens start.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 6, 2016 9:13:34 GMT -5
Owens next start would be scheduled on Tuesday vs. Indians. Wonder if E-Rod's rehab will be complete by then? Rodriguez is scheduled to make a rehab start on Sunday, so I think we're getting one more Owens start. Owens does not need to pitch for Boston for the foreseeable future. I'd give that spot start to Sean O'Sullivan. He has pitched very well for Pawtucket & has a good K/BB rate, ERA, HR/9 IP, ect.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 6, 2016 9:25:47 GMT -5
Rodriguez is scheduled to make a rehab start on Sunday, so I think we're getting one more Owens start. Owens does not need to pitch for Boston for the foreseeable future. I'd give that spot start to Sean O'Sullivan. He has pitched very well for Pawtucket & has a good K/BB rate, ERA, HR/9 IP, ect. What 40-man move are you suggesting to get 1 start from a journeyman AAA starter? Owens is frustrating, but he could use the experience. If not, it's Cuevas or Johnson or Elias.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 6, 2016 9:51:18 GMT -5
Garret Richards trade won't be happening -
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 6, 2016 9:53:31 GMT -5
Owens does not need to pitch for Boston for the foreseeable future. I'd give that spot start to Sean O'Sullivan. He has pitched very well for Pawtucket & has a good K/BB rate, ERA, HR/9 IP, ect. What 40-man move are you suggesting to get 1 start from a journeyman AAA starter? Owens is frustrating, but he could use the experience. If not, it's Cuevas or Johnson or Elias. Owens numbers are really, really bad, and he had a BB/9 of 9.49, and a FIP over 8. There is no need to waste a home game against a light hitting oakland team with Owens. Practically anyone else would be preferable.
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Post by ryantoworkman on May 6, 2016 10:14:05 GMT -5
N/M reported elsewhere
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Post by iakovos11 on May 6, 2016 10:38:03 GMT -5
What 40-man move are you suggesting to get 1 start from a journeyman AAA starter? Owens is frustrating, but he could use the experience. If not, it's Cuevas or Johnson or Elias. Owens numbers are really, really bad, and he had a BB/9 of 9.49, and a FIP over 8. There is no need to waste a home game against a light hitting oakland team with Owens. Practically anyone else would be preferable. That's fine. Any one else won't be and shouldn't be O'Sullivan, though. Not sure Johnson is ready. No confidence Elias is any better. Maybe Cuevas.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 6, 2016 10:46:02 GMT -5
Pablo sandoval out for the season. He can be transferred to the 60 day to open a spot on the 40 man.
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2016 10:47:13 GMT -5
Wright's emergence (and Porcello's to a much lesser extent) has really changed the complexion of the Sox fairly significantly and is probably the most significant development of the season so far. Which explains why those of us who were expecting it had a completely different outlook this offseason than the "all knuckleballers suck always" brigade.
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Post by okin15 on May 6, 2016 12:20:45 GMT -5
Wright's emergence (and Porcello's to a much lesser extent) has really changed the complexion of the Sox fairly significantly and is probably the most significant development of the season so far. Not to undersell your point, but my confidence in Wright to maintain this level of production is low. I expect him to be more the durable 4th starter type, at least for this year (which is what his regressed peripherals think too). Typically, Knuckleballers are exactly that, having stretches of dominance and ones of futility, making them basically .500 ball-players. Which is plenty good, it's just that our other guys have to be good too or we aren't gonna win the World Series. I'm banking on three of the other five starters to be better than Wright over the course of the season (and postseason if we get there.) Anything short of that or a 1995 Wakefield miracle and we're only going to be a playoff contender, not a WS one. It's a thin line to walk, even with our lineup, and I assume that's why people are talking about upgrading the staff with a Sale/Gray type or a rental. Sorry, that was rambling, was thinking through my own approach out loud. I think it's a worthwhile point so I'll post it.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 6, 2016 12:25:26 GMT -5
Owens numbers are really, really bad, and he had a BB/9 of 9.49, and a FIP over 8. There is no need to waste a home game against a light hitting oakland team with Owens. Practically anyone else would be preferable. That's fine. Any one else won't be and shouldn't be O'Sullivan, though. Not sure Johnson is ready. No confidence Elias is any better. Maybe Cuevas. Really think they need to do something as Owens is one of the worst pitchers in the mlb right now. Can't give away that game. Owens walked a lot of below average hitters last night and we can't do the same again with oakland.
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