ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2016 12:26:01 GMT -5
... when he's finished his rehab?
I'm thinking short-term here. For instance, if you think his long-term fate is to be traded, you might pick having him start for Pawtucket for the time being.
Assume that Smith has been worked into the pen rotation fully, and Barnes has been sent down to go back to a 4-man bench (and that E-Rod has replaced Owens in the rotation).
Option 3 of course means going with a 13-man staff for a while.
And "Joe Keely" is actually what his passport says! Either that, or the inability to edit polls is a PITA.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 5, 2016 12:29:49 GMT -5
Start for Pawtucket.
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Post by theolearyfactor on May 5, 2016 12:39:17 GMT -5
I'd have to say start for the PawSox as well. If Buchholz cannot sustain success and Owens and BJ don't do much to inspire confidence, I like having Kelly as a fall back option. That's why I think it would be best to let him get over his shoulder condition and get his bearings as a starter in AAA.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 5, 2016 13:11:53 GMT -5
He's borderline worthless in trade and worse than 5 or 6 of our starters. Keep him and Pawtucket and hope you don't have to call him up.
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Post by jclmontana on May 5, 2016 13:16:11 GMT -5
Start in Pawtucket. I am suspicious about Brian Johnson's health; yesterday's one inning, 3 walk performance suggests that he is not going to be ready for awhile, and the Buchholz injury concerns are not going away. Need someone besides Owens ready to step up, and maybe the relatively pressure-free environment of AAA will allow Kelly to relax and reclaim last year's second half success.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 5, 2016 13:19:20 GMT -5
I still think he will be better suited in the bullpen than he will be as a starter, but with the offseason moves the Red Sox made, and how our bullpen and rotation currently shape up, I keep him as starting depth. The obvious caveat being what you can get for him in a trade.
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Post by tjb21 on May 5, 2016 13:32:53 GMT -5
Start in Pawtucket. Think he's better than Owens at this point -- and maybe going forward, but I'm higher on Johnson than Kelly. He's worth a lot to the organization as depth, not sure how he fits into the bullpen without being able to strike guys out.
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Post by tjb21 on May 5, 2016 13:38:16 GMT -5
Start in Pawtucket. I am suspicious about Brian Johnson's health; yesterday's one inning, 3 walk performance suggests that he is not going to be ready for awhile, and the Buchholz injury concerns are not going away. Need someone besides Owens ready to step up, and maybe the relatively pressure-free environment of AAA will allow Kelly to relax and reclaim last year's second half success. His numbers from the All Star break until the end of the Year were decent (11 starts): 3.77 ERA 4.14 FIP 3.90 xFIP 7.54 K/9 2.72 BB/9 .329 BABIP 76.4 LOB% 13.5 HR/FB |
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Post by Don Caballero on May 5, 2016 14:05:47 GMT -5
Package with Allen Craig for John Lackey.
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Post by klostrophobic on May 5, 2016 14:25:12 GMT -5
He should be a reliever, but he maybe has more value as a starter in this organization so keep him in Pawtucket for that purpose. The problem is that he's clearly not one of the five best starters (and probably interchangeable with the 6 and 7 starters), and I'm not sure what his role would be as a reliever except as a Barnes/Hembree replacement? The other issue is that there is a lot of relief depth (everyone on the 25 man plus Ramirez, Light, Varvaro, Scott, Cuevas are probably capable of serviceable or better performance out of the pen—Kelly has more potential than a few of these guys, but he wouldn't pitch a single high-leverage inning without a string of injuries).
So trade him if you can, but before you do that let him get his starts in Pawtucket.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 5, 2016 15:25:48 GMT -5
He needs to start at Pawtucket for several reasons. He is NOT one of the top 5 options currently. We need the depth for our rotation. His value is not high at this moment, so moving him is a big waste. I agree with most of you, his velocity and a solid secondary would make him pretty effective in the bull pen.
By starting him in AAA, it gives us the time to see how Erod, Henry, and Johnson are going to fit in and be ready. If 2 of them are able to give us solid innings and look dependable by the All-Star break, I'd consider moving him finally into the pen.
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Post by rizdog on May 6, 2016 8:24:17 GMT -5
IMO it's an easy decision, send him to AAA to start. In a month or two transition him to the Pawtucket pen if he's not needed to start in MLB due to injuries. Also, I would not option Barnes to make room for a 4th bench player. He got a little lucky early in the year when he was giving up a lot of hard contact but he's been pitching much better. He bailed them out last night (with a lot of help from Mookie and Hannigan) and his velocity keeps on ticking up. He's now averaging 96.5 mph on his fastball and he's been reaching 97 & 98 pretty often. I like Layne but he NEVER pitches, I'd DFA him before sending down Barnes.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 6, 2016 8:58:19 GMT -5
IMO it's an easy decision, send him to AAA to start. In a month or two transition him to the Pawtucket pen if he's not needed to start in MLB due to injuries. Also, I would not option Barnes to make room for a 4th bench player. He got a little lucky early in the year when he was giving up a lot of hard contact but he's been pitching much better. He bailed them out last night (with a lot of help from Mookie and Hannigan) and his velocity keeps on ticking up. He's now averaging 96.5 mph on his fastball and he's been reaching 97 & 98 pretty often. I like Layne but he NEVER pitches, I'd DFA him before sending down Barnes. I'm with you there....He's only pitched 5 innings this year so Farrell obviously doesn't trust him. Last night he could have come in with a large lead & wasn't summoned. I know the whole lefty/loogy thing, he just seems like dead wood. I'd almost trust Hembree in a tough spot against a lefty. It would also be nice to have a true long man out there (Kelly). |
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Post by okin15 on May 6, 2016 11:57:02 GMT -5
Kelly has two options left, so burning one just isn't a concern. He is very valuable as a 6th starter in Pawtucket. But these problems have a way of working themselves out. Certainly, if we need help in the 'pen OR the rotation, he would be among the first guys I'd call upon.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 6, 2016 12:15:15 GMT -5
IMO Kelly is a starting pitcher...and for the Red Sox. There are very few ML pitchers with his arm. I think you go to the mat with this guy and hope he improves his secondaries. We don't know about Buch, or E-Rod, or Wright or even Price for that matter. Owens and Johnson are not ready..if they will ever be. None of these guys have Kelly's arm strength. The Sox are going for arm strength..having been late to the party. They are not going to turn this guy loose for less than a ransom on that basis if none other. He sticks in AAA until deemed recovered and until someone falters (invariably) up top. I see his value more as a starter because is FB is not swing/miss and because he can hold his velocity.
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 12:45:51 GMT -5
Kimbrel and Barnes 1-3 in AL reliever average FB velocity. Throw Kelly in there and they'll have three of the top 4.
But yeah, start him in Pawtucket.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 6, 2016 12:59:35 GMT -5
I'd check in with the Angels, who are down to three healthy starters basically with both Heaney and Richards going down.
That said, not like they have much to offer in return...
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 6, 2016 13:02:07 GMT -5
I may be in the minority here, but this whole "he has options so let's send him down" thing sometimes doesn't make sense. Layne doesn't have options, I understand that. He is literally taking up space in the pen. We have a couple of guys "that have options" sitting there in Pawtucket throwing 97. I'll throw up if they send down Barnes because he has options. I can understand keeping Kelly stretched out as a starter in Pawtucket until we need him in Boston.
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2016 13:57:05 GMT -5
Layne doesn't have options, I understand that. He is literally taking up space in the pen. We have a couple of guys "that have options" sitting there in Pawtucket throwing 97. And how many of them are left-handed? |
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2016 14:15:37 GMT -5
A bullpen filled with pitchers with neutral splits doesn't need a LOOGY.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 6, 2016 14:32:00 GMT -5
A bullpen filled with pitchers with neutral splits doesn't need a LOOGY. Exactement! |
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Post by deepjohn on May 6, 2016 15:28:17 GMT -5
If you assume the Red Sox are in win now mode, then "Joe Keely" should go to the bullpen.
Really, Keely? Yes, really. Tazawa, Hembree and Ross (and even Barnes) have been neutral split kwERA monsters so far. The new guy "Joe Keely" should be too when he focuses on his two best pitches and dials it up to maximum effort.
Why? This offense is plenty good enough that they can win games even when they are behind, if they can get the same shutdown results from the "bottom of the bullpen" (when they are behind) that they get from the top of the bullpen (when they are ahead). Basically, you don't want much of a difference between top and bottom. Neutral split swing and miss power (or Koji deception) to blow people away no matter which inning it is, what the score is, or who's hitting from what side.
Plus, if I'm not mistaken, the guys with options can ride the Pawtucket shuttle as needed to keep the bullpen fresh.
So, to the question, directly, who should Kelly replace? My sense is it's obvious based on this line of reasoning. They DFA Layne.
ADD: "Trade him" should not even be an option. His ceiling is still way too valuable (he could still be a 2+ WAR starter/reliever) but his perceived value now is at an all-time low. Chris Hatfield I'm talking to you, brother!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2016 15:52:28 GMT -5
A bullpen filled with pitchers with neutral splits doesn't need a LOOGY. Not really true at all. There are LHB with huge splits, including some very good or even elite ones. You may have a RHP who holds LHB to an even lower OPS than Layne does, but that's their numbers against the hitters they have faced, who have average splits on average (although Layne's may be skewed, and also he probably has faced better overall hitters). Against guys like Ryan Howard in his prime, you want any decent LHP as opposed to any very good RHP. The question is how many of those kids of hitters are left for Layne to face, and whether Farrell can get him into the game to face them. |
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2016 16:13:35 GMT -5
A bullpen filled with pitchers with neutral splits doesn't need a LOOGY. OK, and this relates to the Sox bullpen how? Yes, Tazawa, Uehara and Kimbrell all have fairly neutral splits. But Smith and Hembree have normal splits (so far) and Barnes has been downright terrible vs. LHB. (Also, what Eric said.) |
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2016 16:20:54 GMT -5
A bullpen filled with pitchers with neutral splits doesn't need a LOOGY. OK, and this relates to the Sox bullpen how? Yes, Tazawa, Uehara and Kimbrell all have fairly neutral splits. But Smith and Hembree have normal splits (so far) and Barnes has been downright terrible vs. LHB. (Also, what Eric said.) Barnes and Hembree have typically been used for multiple innings so far, not situational. Carson Smith may have a slight split, but he's still pretty elite vs LHB and then you also have to be careful of which teams have a RHB on the bench who could nullify Layne. I'd take Smith vs a LHB before Layne vs a RH PH. In the AL East, Layne would be useful vs. Chris Davis and ... |
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