ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2016 13:45:47 GMT -5
Number of bad Clay starts to begin the season:
6, 2011 9, 2012 10, 2014 (5th starter thereafter) 7, 2015 8 at least, 2016
I don't think there's a correlation between 2014 being the longest bad stretch, and it being the year he remained inconsistent thereafter, with disappointing overall results.
So right now, it's not just par for the course, it's what you would have guessed. If he's bad again next time out, then it starts to become worrisome. If he has two more bad starts, you can start a serious discussion about Kelly replacing him.
You need to remember that in three of four previous instances he became so good that the overall season ended up as a really valuable one, even when truncated. Only in 2014 would you have gone in another direction coming out of ST if you had been psychic, and even in that year, after the bad start he was still a perfectly acceptable MLB starter -- subpar, but not a guy killing you. Kelly's going to have to look real good before you give up on the 75% track record of excellence.
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Post by jclmontana on May 16, 2016 14:15:34 GMT -5
Number of bad Clay starts to begin the season: 6, 2011 9, 2012 10, 2014 (5th starter thereafter) 7, 2015 8 at least, 2016 I don't think there's a correlation between 2014 being the longest bad stretch, and it being the year he remained inconsistent thereafter, with disappointing overall results. So right now, it's not just par for the course, it's what you would have guessed. If he's bad again next time out, then it starts to become worrisome. If he has two more bad starts, you can start a serious discussion about Kelly replacing him. You need to remember that in three of four previous instances he became so good that the overall season ended up as a really valuable one, even when truncated. Only in 2014 would you have gone in another direction coming out of ST if you had been psychic, and even in that year, after the bad start he was still a perfectly acceptable MLB starter -- subpar, but not a guy killing you. Kelly's going to have to look real good before you give up on the 75% track record of excellence. You didn't mention 2013, when he was completely awesome the first half of the year before he got hurt, so really, you have a sample size of 5 (seasons). 3/5 seasons he started slow and then got hot (for at least a while), 1/5 seasons where he was really good from the get-go, and one season where he was simply poor. So you are predicting success this year based on a pattern that has occurred 3 out of the past 5 years?
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Post by deepjohn on May 16, 2016 15:28:07 GMT -5
Number of bad Clay starts to begin the season: 6, 2011 9, 2012 10, 2014 (5th starter thereafter) 7, 2015 8 at least, 2016 I don't think there's a correlation between 2014 being the longest bad stretch, and it being the year he remained inconsistent thereafter, with disappointing overall results. So right now, it's not just par for the course, it's what you would have guessed. If he's bad again next time out, then it starts to become worrisome. If he has two more bad starts, you can start a serious discussion about Kelly replacing him. You need to remember that in three of four previous instances he became so good that the overall season ended up as a really valuable one, even when truncated. Only in 2014 would you have gone in another direction coming out of ST if you had been psychic, and even in that year, after the bad start he was still a perfectly acceptable MLB starter -- subpar, but not a guy killing you. Kelly's going to have to look real good before you give up on the 75% track record of excellence. It looks like slugging percentage against him has gone way up with men on base, so far this year, and his LOB% with men on base is actually negative. (Unfortunately, I can't get splits within other seasons on fangraphs.) And yet his Contact percentages with men on base have stayed the same. Is that not the definition of bad luck?
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Post by jmei on May 16, 2016 17:34:16 GMT -5
I moved some Steven Wright discussion into that thread.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 16, 2016 19:48:54 GMT -5
Mainly what I do with Clay Buchholz is try to think about him as little as possible.
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