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Post by mandelbro on May 18, 2016 9:23:45 GMT -5
Forget about Sonny Gray - if/when it becomes evident that the rotation needs a boost to be viable in the playoffs, I think the Red Sox should inquire about the availability of Rich Hill.
Oakland is a bad baseball team. Second-worst run differential in the American League. In a division with the surprising Mariners and a damn good Rangers team, they should be well out of things by the trade deadline. Hill is 36 and not part of anyone's future.
If I'm trading from the top 5 prospects in the system (i.e. involving Espinoza, Devers, and/or Swihart) I expect a young, controllable frontline pitcher in return. I don't think cost is going to meet value this year. We saw what Shelby Miller, a pitcher whose market value was unreasonably high to begin with, went for.
To summarize: 1. The 2016 Red Sox are a promising team and I'd hate to see them get bashed out of contention. 2. The market for controllable pitchers is out of control.
So forget about controllable frontline pitching and lets look at temporary frontline pitching. There's no more temporary frontline pitcher than Rich Hill. Can the Red Sox could get Rich Hill for players outside of their core assets? I think so. For example - Marco Hernandez is a LHH infielder who can play a bunch of positions, has a good split for being the strong side of a platoon, and is a decade away from being owed real money. Who tops that on the trade market? And Beane is known for coveting unexpected players - if by some miracle he likes Deven Marrero we could have our cake and eat it too. Thoughts?
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Post by jrffam05 on May 18, 2016 9:28:40 GMT -5
Rich Hill is exactly the type of pitcher I think the Red Sox should target in a trade. That being said, I think another team would beat that offer. Think about the Miller for E-Rod trade.
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Post by mandelbro on May 18, 2016 9:31:24 GMT -5
Rich Hill is exactly the type of pitcher I think the Red Sox should target in a trade. That being said, I think another team would beat that offer. Think about the Miller for E-Rod trade. Yeah, to twist a Bill James phrase that will be familiar on here, I think a lot of the pitchers whose names are getting bandied around are sprinkled with too much magical ERA dust to be obtainable. But Rich is a Fenway pitcher all the way. Strikes out hitters and keeps the ball down.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 18, 2016 11:14:14 GMT -5
Can he go a full year?...We're at quarter pole of the season....he'll be on pace for 172 IP plus playoffs. We all know he's approaching his IP high water mark NOW since like 2007.
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Post by ramireja on May 18, 2016 11:24:55 GMT -5
Can the Red Sox could get Rich Hill for players outside of their core assets? If the Blue Jays got Donaldson without giving up core assets, then yeah, I'd say we should be able to get Rich Hill without giving up one of the Big 4.
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Post by welovewally on May 18, 2016 11:54:18 GMT -5
Why didn't they just sign him? Now they have to trade for him?
Sean Coyle
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Post by jrffam05 on May 18, 2016 12:40:36 GMT -5
Why didn't they just sign him? Now they have to trade for him? Sean Coyle There was no rotation spot for him. He was looking for the best guarantee he could get that he would start, and that was not in Boston. I do hate trading for players after they signed the previous offseason, but Rich Hill is the exception.
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Post by jdb on May 18, 2016 12:45:32 GMT -5
Can he go a full year?...We're at quarter pole of the season....he'll be on pace for 172 IP plus playoffs. We all know he's approaching his IP high water mark NOW since like 2007. My question too. There probably isn't a ton of options out there given the thin FA class so I think Hill may cost more than what we are talking about. Taking on Billy Butlers contract could lessen any package as well. I heard an announcer on MLB radio say if Hill keeps pitching well he could be a QO candidate given the lack of pitching. That's a big if though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 18, 2016 12:58:18 GMT -5
I was thinking about Rich Hill as well as a trade target. The fact that he hasn't pitched many innings and can hit a wall does concern me.
On the plus side, he's a rental and shouldn't cost any of the big-time prospects.
On the negative side, he could hit a wall and the competition the Sox face for a trade to get him would increase the cost more than what they'd like. Obviously they're not dealing Moncada, Espinoza or Benintendi for him. I'd hope they wouldn't be desperate enough to deal Devers or Swihart for him. The question is how do people feel about Henry Owens or Brian Johnson for him?
Is that too much? Six years of cost control for two pitchers who are struggling, although Owens' numbers in AAA look decent except for, of course, the walks? I guess that depends upon how much you value Owens' future. Or maybe the A's would demand Sam Travis instead?
Or would the A's do better from another team in a deal and the Sox would have to give up more value than an Owens or Johnson or a Travis (I would assume the Sox plan on signing Encarnacion if they dealt Travis?)
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Post by jimed14 on May 18, 2016 13:45:34 GMT -5
Oakland signed him so they could trade him at the deadline, so he should be available.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2016 16:23:36 GMT -5
If you wanna upgrade pitching for championship run I just don't see how Hill makes sense. To much risk with him to count on him staying healthy and pitching well to give up anything of real value.
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Post by jimed14 on May 18, 2016 16:27:28 GMT -5
If you wanna upgrade pitching for championship run I just don't see how Hill makes sense. To much risk with him to count on him staying healthy and pitching well to give up anything of real value. There isn't much risk if he only needs to stay healthy for 2+ months if he stays healthy and effective until that point. He's obviously a deadline target.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2016 20:16:48 GMT -5
If you wanna upgrade pitching for championship run I just don't see how Hill makes sense. To much risk with him to count on him staying healthy and pitching well to give up anything of real value. There isn't much risk if he only needs to stay healthy for 2+ months if he stays healthy and effective until that point. He's obviously a deadline target. How does that work? It's been 9 years since Hill had a season that would help Red Sox into October. So if he can somehow can make it to deadline there isn't much risk? Come on, that's crazy talk. Anyone that would trade anything of real value for Hill thinking he can help you in playoffs please come see me. I have a bridge I'm selling.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2016 6:30:02 GMT -5
There isn't much risk if he only needs to stay healthy for 2+ months if he stays healthy and effective until that point. He's obviously a deadline target. How does that work? It's been 9 years since Hill had a season that would help Red Sox into October. So if he can somehow can make it to deadline there isn't much risk? Come on, that's crazy talk. Anyone that would trade anything of real value for Hill thinking he can help you in playoffs please come see me. I have a bridge I'm selling. I don't know, how do any players not get hurt? If he's pitching well all year and healthy, chances are he can make it another few months and isn't going to crumble on August 1st. There would be a lot less risk in 2 months than there would have been by signing him in the offseason. Don't know what else to tell you.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2016 6:53:18 GMT -5
How does that work? It's been 9 years since Hill had a season that would help Red Sox into October. So if he can somehow can make it to deadline there isn't much risk? Come on, that's crazy talk. Anyone that would trade anything of real value for Hill thinking he can help you in playoffs please come see me. I have a bridge I'm selling. I don't know, how do any players not get hurt? If he's pitching well all year and healthy, chances are he can make it another few months and isn't going to crumble on August 1st. There would be a lot less risk in 2 months than there would have been by signing him in the offseason. Don't know what else to tell you. SMH
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2016 6:57:07 GMT -5
My bad, back to ignore. Here I was thinking you wouldn't be such a ...
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 19, 2016 9:25:40 GMT -5
Another good start last night.....jimed's right as if he is still healthy by Aug 1 he "should" be ok for another 2 months. Doesn't have a lot of miles on his arm & looks like he's 18 years old. My guess is that he'll be moved well before Aug 1st.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2016 11:59:13 GMT -5
So a guy that hasn't logged over 100 innings in a season since almost getting to 200 innings 9 years ago is someone you think can give you close to 200 innings this year? He has averaged under 50 innings over last 5 years. In 2010 he did get to 99 innings and he had 65 innings last year. Not even taking into account how injury prone he has been, just the innings will take there toll. He's 36 now if I remember right and was 27 last time he came close to that many innings. Even if he can stay healthy, a huge if. I just don't see him not wearing down. Now add on the extra games and innings of a postseason run and it makes little sense to think Rich Hill is a starter we should go after.
Now add in the fact with the way he's pitching, it's going to take a decent package to get him and for the Sox I think it's crazy.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2016 12:50:24 GMT -5
So a guy who has 140 innings by July 31 is automatically going to get hurt in the last two months of the season?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2016 13:00:11 GMT -5
So a guy who has 140 innings by July 31 is automatically going to get hurt in the last two months of the season? If you read my post it says innings is my biggest worry. No, maybe he can some how stay healthy, you never know. We do know that a pitcher going from 65 innings to around 200 or more innings will likely wear down and the chance of injury will increase . This in a pitcher that is injury prone. For a team that wants to make a deep playoff run he makes little sense. He had pitched over a 100 innings in majors only once 9 years ago.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 19, 2016 13:00:46 GMT -5
So a guy who has 140 innings by July 31 is automatically going to get hurt in the last two months of the season? I do understand the concern about him getting injured or losing effectiveness. I still have images of Greg Harris, normally a solid reliever, turning to toast in September 1990 because his arm was worn out from starting as he had never pitched as many innings before. I'd be more wary of fatigue necessarily than injury. Still, that said, you have to look into trying to acquire him. There's not much out there and he has been pitching very well and we know he's capable of pitching well for the Red Sox, too, which is something not to discount. The Sox are going to go for it this year. I don't want the Sox to give up too much, so we'll have to see what that amounts to with Hill. If they can keep their top 5 prospects or so, then yeah, they have to seriously considering going after Hill. They'd be crazy not to.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2016 13:10:47 GMT -5
So a guy who has 140 innings by July 31 is automatically going to get hurt in the last two months of the season? If you read my post it says innings is my biggest worry. No, maybe he can some how stay healthy, you never know. We do know that a pitcher going from 65 innings to around 200 or more innings will likely wear down and the chance of injury will increase . This in a pitcher that is injury prone. For a team that wants to make a deep playoff run he makes little sense. He had pitched over a 100 innings in majors only once 9 years ago. Well the point was that you already avoided the risk of him getting hurt through the end of July. The risk of him getting hurt or wearing down will be built into the price teams are willing to pay to trade for him. It's not like there's a shopping mall of pitchers to go take your pick from. He's probably as good as it gets.
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ericmvan
Veteran
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Post by ericmvan on May 20, 2016 22:18:25 GMT -5
Why didn't they just sign him? Now they have to trade for him? Sean Coyle There was no rotation spot for him. He was looking for the best guarantee he could get that he would start, and that was not in Boston. I do hate trading for players after they signed the previous offseason, but Rich Hill is the exception. I argued pretty vehemently that they could have and should have guaranteed him the spot that became the Kelly / Wright competition. And he actually would be replacing E-Rod so far. Here's who he would have started in place of, in terms of times around the rotation: 1, 3. Wright 2. Kelly 4, 5, 6. Owens 7, 8. O'Sullivan That's a big upgrade.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 23, 2016 10:39:39 GMT -5
Any team that trades for him will assume he will crap out by late Aug--early Sept-ish. He could though provide valuable starts to a team with revolving door SP's (Like Boston). Could be great insurance, & if we are good to go with our top 5 SP's, we could use him as a long man. With Owens showing no signs of command/control, Johnson in Ft Myers on Xanax, Elias big maybe, E-Rod in a knee brace, Buch may go down tomorrow with a lat strain, etc.
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Post by Guidas on May 23, 2016 11:05:58 GMT -5
He will be one of the top chips at the deadline, he's absurdly cheap, and he's a lefty. Given how crazy the deadline has been in the past I could see him getting the equivalent of one of the Sox top 5-10 prospects in return. If that holds, is that worth it to people here?
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