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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2016 15:52:26 GMT -5
Teheran's splits vs. LHB this season: .200 BABIP, 7.6% K-BB%, 5.51 xFIP, 6.4% IFFB%, 48.1% FB% Yeah, he's really turned it around. That screams true talent .200 BABIP pitcher. Also keep in mind that Fenway forces pitchers to pitch differently so it could be even worse than that. And a lot of short flyballs are doubles. The explanation is that it's command against lefties that's the difference. Teheran against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.73 BB% 11.1% 2016: WHIP 1.07 BB% 8.5% Buchholz against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.03 BB% 3.2% 2016: WHIP 2.04 BB% 14.6% Or, the difference for Teheran is going from a .319 BABIP in 2015 and .200 in 2016. A lower walk rate is great, but it made him slightly less terrible vs. LHP. It didn't make him a true talent .200 BABIP pitcher, which no one in the history of baseball has ever come close to. The only pitchers who come close are dominant relief pitchers and knuckleball pitchers. Pedro's career BABIP was .279. It was .323 in 1999. Does Teheran have much, much better command than Pedro did?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 13, 2016 16:32:34 GMT -5
The explanation is that it's command against lefties that's the difference. Teheran against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.73 BB% 11.1% 2016: WHIP 1.07 BB% 8.5% Buchholz against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.03 BB% 3.2% 2016: WHIP 2.04 BB% 14.6% Or, the difference for Teheran is going from a .319 BABIP in 2015 and .200 in 2016. A lower walk rate is great, but it made him slightly less terrible vs. LHP. It didn't make him a true talent .200 BABIP pitcher, which no one in the history of baseball has ever come close to. The only pitchers who come close are dominant relief pitchers and knuckleball pitchers. Pedro's career BABIP was .279. It was .323 in 1999. Does Teheran have much, much better command than Pedro did? Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 17:13:21 GMT -5
The explanation is that it's command against lefties that's the difference. Teheran against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.73 BB% 11.1% 2016: WHIP 1.07 BB% 8.5% Buchholz against lefties: 2015: WHIP 1.03 BB% 3.2% 2016: WHIP 2.04 BB% 14.6% Or, the difference for Teheran is going from a .319 BABIP in 2015 and .200 in 2016. A lower walk rate is great, but it made him slightly less terrible vs. LHP. It didn't make him a true talent .200 BABIP pitcher, which no one in the history of baseball has ever come close to. The only pitchers who come close are dominant relief pitchers and knuckleball pitchers. Pedro's career BABIP was .279. It was .323 in 1999. Does Teheran have much, much better command than Pedro did? Low BABIP may be unsustainable when you have a lot of hard ground balls that will eventually get through for singles (or a bad defense). But inducing soft outs from contact is a sign that hitters can't make solid contact (as estimated by statcast exit velocity and launch angle). The low BABIP, if it's real, should be accompanied by a low line drive %. Popups and short fly balls don't depend on defense or luck. Those are outs. You don't need defense-independent FIP for that. Marco Estrada has become this kind of pitcher. 50% flyball rate, lots of popups and short flyballs, about a .200 BABIP this year and last. Teheran only needs good BABIP against lefties, and dominates righties the old fashion way (30%K/27% K-BB).
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2016 18:49:08 GMT -5
Neither Estrada or Teheran will end up with anywhere close to a .200 BABIP over a long period of time. Major league hitters can hit good pitches no matter how good they are at a higher rate than that.
And at least consider that short fly balls hit the Green Monster quite often and will make BABIP rise. You cannot catch a flyball that hits 25 feet up the Green Monster. That's why games in Fenway have a higher BABIP than other parks in general. And even without Fenway, no one ever stays around .200 for long. Go look at all-time career leaders for starters' BABIP.
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2016 19:05:28 GMT -5
Wow, look at jimed espousing the fundamental tenets of DIPS theory. /sheds a tear
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2016 19:15:40 GMT -5
Wow, look at jimed espousing the fundamental tenets of DIPS theory. /sheds a tear Haha. Well, I never suggested Owens has a .200 BABIP skill.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 19:24:32 GMT -5
Neither Estrada or Teheran will end up with anywhere close to a .200 BABIP over a long period of time. Major league hitters can hit good pitches no matter how good they are at a higher rate than that. And at least consider that short fly balls hit the Green Monster quite often and will make BABIP rise. You cannot catch a flyball that hits 25 feet up the Green Monster. That's why games in Fenway have a higher BABIP than other parks in general. And even without Fenway, no one ever stays around .200 for long. Go look at all-time career leaders for starters' BABIP. It's not the BABIP itself that's important. That's just a stat that may be a correlation (to runs allowed), but not a causation. What actually reduces runs allowed is the low exit velocity and high launch angle. When "pitching to contact," the idea is to get more popups and soft flyballs, since those are very likely to be outs. Of course, one can also pitch to ground balls, but over-reliance on ground balls does not correlate well with lower ERA. Oddly, extreme ground ball pitchers give up a lot of homers. It's certainly true that Fenway has its own profile. Yes, batting average is higher, but slugging percentage is about the same. A fair number of outs turn into hits, but a fair number of homers also turn into hits. If you're pitching to contact, you'd prefer to give up the hit than the homer.
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2016 20:34:48 GMT -5
What actually reduces runs allowed is the low exit velocity and high launch angle. When "pitching to contact," the idea is to get more popups and soft flyballs, since those are very likely to be outs. The problem is that Teheran doesn't actually give up low exit velocities: - 2016 Statcast average batted ball velocity, all batted balls: 89.5 mph (league average is ~89.0 mph)
- 2016 Statcast average batted ball velocity, LD/FB: 93.0 mph (league average is ~92.5 mph)
- 2016 Statcast average batted ball distance: 226 ft (league average is ~215 ft)
- 2016 BIS soft%/med%/hard%: 17.5% / 47.1% / 35.3% (league average is 19/50/31)
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 13, 2016 22:28:09 GMT -5
Yeah, I think the statcast/bis data is super cool and I get all excited by the possibilities. But as one early look at this concluded, until much more granular data is available, or the processes behind the qualitative data are more clearly explained somewhere, the explanatory power of this data is limited at best. Just as a matter of common sense, I think lower exit velocity and higher launch angle will lead to more popups and short fly balls, which are more likely to be outs.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jul 17, 2016 16:09:05 GMT -5
garbled tweet from Gammons suggests, I think, sending a C for 2017 to the Braves
Peter GammonsVerified account @pgammo MLB's most unlikely success story of '16? Red Sox catcher Sandy Leon http:// When Chili Davis got his stance taller, he soared.Braves need C
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Post by kidcarter8 on Jul 30, 2016 18:25:08 GMT -5
Are we really arguing the merits of Julio Teheran?
Former number 5 overall prospect in MLB?
170 K vs 173 hits at age 22?
That Julio Teheran?
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