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possible Red Sox and Braves blockbuster
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Post by ryantoworkman on Jul 1, 2016 12:22:45 GMT -5
Actually, during this run, he's had a slightly high flyball rate of 43% (average is 40%), but his line drive rate (which is death to pitchers) has been lower than average (16% compared to an average of 21%). His groundball rate has been good at 40% and his pop-up rate has been excellent at 8%. So all in all, it's not surprising that he's been dominating and you could expect he would perform pretty much the same regardless of league or park factors. You really believe he would perform the same in AL East? I'm higher on Teheran than most but that's crazy talk. You have to take league, park and division into account. At Minimum his ERA would likely jump into 3.5 Range. Would be more like a 2/3, not an ace. Still not really on board with a Teheran trade, but he did dominate the Sox and Cubs lineups while both teams were on impressive offensive runs this season. Perhaps he's just now reaching the point where he knows how to harness his stuff. He's still just 25, and I think a lot of us forget how young he was while creating the stats profile so many want to tear into. I'm starting to come around on this I guess, but arriving at this point has no Moncada or Benintendi as immovable objects in the discussion.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2016 12:25:08 GMT -5
Yes it can be a skill, which is why there's no reason to expect that Teheran can't continue put up the lower than normal BABIP numbers he's had for his entire career. It is implausible to suggest that he will continue to hold lefties to a .170 BABIP, and it's also irrational to expect that he will continue to put up BABIP numbers 60 points lower than his career average. He's got an 83% strand rate- that's also unsustainable. And to suggest that he wouldn't be impacted by switching from a very weak offensive division with a bunch of pitcher's parks to the AL East is laughable. And lastly, his hard contact rate allowed has jumped by 3 percentage points since last year, so I have a hard time buying that his true talent level is that different than what most of us think. He got unlucky last year, he's been exceptionally lucky this year. Either way, the trade you proposed would be insane for us to make given that, no matter what you say, every indication is that this is not a sustainable performance on his part. Oh and also, according to his pitch breakdown on fangraphs, he didn't throw any new pitches last year- still fastball, slider, curve and change. There wasn't even much of a change in his pitch mix- he has thrown far fewer 2-seamers this year than last and more sliders, but last year his pitch mix was pretty much exactly in line with the rest of his career There are quite a few pieces analyzing what Teheran did, or didn't do, with his pitches in 2015. tomahawktake.com/2016/05/11/who-is-the-real-julio-teheran/tomahawktake.com/2016/05/11/who-is-the-real-julio-teheran/2/But please, this is not meant as an argument, or to prove something. This is a story about how the Sox, if they pull the trigger on this deal, came to believe that Teheran is going to be a dominant ace for a very long time. We'll all get to see how the story turns out. The Sox have been really great recently at judging how pitchers will do in Fenway. Maybe you should appeal to a more credible authority.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 12:28:14 GMT -5
That's a change in pitching approach/location, not adding new pitches that's mentioned in that article. Also worth noting that in it, the author noted that Teheran was DEAD LAST in ERA and FIP on the road in the majors in 2015- but home park wouldn't affect his results right? And sure, but it kind of is an argument, because it seems relatively clear to me (and seemingly most others) that Teheran will not be a dominant ace for a long time, or at least to bet on him doing so would be an incredibly risky proposition and not one that we should bet a good chunk of our future as an organization on. And you have spent a good deal of time citing (in my view) somewhat questionable evidence for that deal being a good idea, which is mostly what is being contested here- it's a discussion board, it's here for discussion and reasoned debate, not for someone to say "I heard this might happen, nobody question it until we know it won't," which is the only way I can interpret the idea that this is a story and we'll get to see how it turns out. That could be applied to any thread on this site and it would be quite a lot less interesting Yeah, the story goes that 2015 was an outlier, for many reasons, including pitch selection: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/23/11096368/julio-teheran-braves-fastballI try not to let my own beliefs get in the way. Still, I do believe, and maybe this gets in the way, that the only way to make enormous gains in trading is to take contrarian positions against the herd. Buy low, sell high. That would be Teheran. If the Sox are right, and Teheran is a dominant ace for many years, then the Braves are taking a big risk to let him go, and will need to get maximum value from Moncada, Kopech and Devers. I surmise the Sox will choose to keep Johnson and Benny, but that is just my own guess.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 12:30:31 GMT -5
Actually, during this run, he's had a slightly high flyball rate of 43% (average is 40%), but his line drive rate (which is death to pitchers) has been lower than average (16% compared to an average of 21%). His groundball rate has been good at 40% and his pop-up rate has been excellent at 8%. So all in all, it's not surprising that he's been dominating and you could expect he would perform pretty much the same regardless of league or park factors. And the quality of hitters in the AL East and NL East are equivalent? There may be more elite hitters in the AL East, it's true, who can hit even against elite pitching. But I don't have the stats for that. I'm just narrating the obvious, that park and league factors measure league average.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 1, 2016 12:40:59 GMT -5
Yeah, the story goes that 2015 was an outlier, for many reasons, including pitch selection: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/23/11096368/julio-teheran-braves-fastballI try not to let my own beliefs get in the way. Still, I do believe, and maybe this gets in the way, that the only way to make enormous gains in trading is to take contrarian positions against the herd. Buy low, sell high. That would be Teheran. If the Sox are right, and Teheran is a dominant ace for many years, then the Braves are taking a big risk to let him go, and will need to get maximum value from Moncada, Kopech and Devers. I surmise the Sox will choose to keep Johnson and Benny, but that is just my own guess. Ok that's fair, but I would seriously debate the idea that dealing for Teheran now would be buying low- it would, in all likelihood, be buying at the peak. Even if you buy that this is the pitcher he is, you'd be paying a high premium for years of control, and the numbers indicate that, even if he is better than I think he is, a certain amount of his recent success can be attributed to luck and not to skill, particularly strand rate and, up to a point, his BABIP, so if you expect it to normalize, you wait. And regardless, I honestly think that a package of Moncada, Devers and Kopech could get you a pitcher with far fewer question marks than Teheran- I'm pretty sure the White Sox would have to think long and hard before turning that down for Quintana, and that would be a good starting point for Sale- you're talking about 2 top-15 prospects in baseball by consensus rankings and a pitcher with a whole lot of upside on top of that.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 1, 2016 13:17:36 GMT -5
So your source is someone on ground crew for Atlanta? What the heck is an ace run? Either your an Ace or your not. By saying Ace run your basically saying he's not an Ace but has been pitching like one for a certain stretch. Well, sure, prior to this run, he was considered all the things that you might have heard about him. Can't get lefties out, flyball pitcher, too many walks. If the Sox pull the trigger, then it would only be on the belief that Teheran has become a dominant ace. Say the Sox could choose from Sale, Fernandez, or Teheran. If the Sox still really want Teheran for now and the future, then they pull the trigger. Ideally, you would also like to know if Sale or Fernandez could be available for the same prospects, or less. Just to get a sense of fair market value. The Red Sox are not accepting that offer. Come to me with a rumor about what the Red Sox are willing to offer not what some team wants, the Astros wanted Bogaerts for Bud Norris.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 13:28:10 GMT -5
Yeah, the story goes that 2015 was an outlier, for many reasons, including pitch selection: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/23/11096368/julio-teheran-braves-fastballI try not to let my own beliefs get in the way. Still, I do believe, and maybe this gets in the way, that the only way to make enormous gains in trading is to take contrarian positions against the herd. Buy low, sell high. That would be Teheran. If the Sox are right, and Teheran is a dominant ace for many years, then the Braves are taking a big risk to let him go, and will need to get maximum value from Moncada, Kopech and Devers. I surmise the Sox will choose to keep Johnson and Benny, but that is just my own guess. Ok that's fair, but I would seriously debate the idea that dealing for Teheran now would be buying low- it would, in all likelihood, be buying at the peak. Even if you buy that this is the pitcher he is, you'd be paying a high premium for years of control, and the numbers indicate that, even if he is better than I think he is, a certain amount of his recent success can be attributed to luck and not to skill, particularly strand rate and, up to a point, his BABIP, so if you expect it to normalize, you wait. And regardless, I honestly think that a package of Moncada, Devers and Kopech could get you a pitcher with far fewer question marks than Teheran- I'm pretty sure the White Sox would have to think long and hard before turning that down for Quintana, and that would be a good starting point for Sale- you're talking about 2 top-15 prospects in baseball by consensus rankings and a pitcher with a whole lot of upside on top of that. If you also consider salary commitments, acquiring Teheran has a huge advantage. They'd have Teheran for $38M for five and a half years. That's a one-of-kind bargain. Five and a half years of Price, Greinke, Scherzer etc. costs more than $160M. They'd be saving more than $120 million. And of course, there are no elite pitchers available by FA this off-season. Granted they'd be giving up surplus value for Moncada/Devers/Kopech, but they'd still come out far ahead in total dollars.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 13:32:20 GMT -5
Well, sure, prior to this run, he was considered all the things that you might have heard about him. Can't get lefties out, flyball pitcher, too many walks. If the Sox pull the trigger, then it would only be on the belief that Teheran has become a dominant ace. Say the Sox could choose from Sale, Fernandez, or Teheran. If the Sox still really want Teheran for now and the future, then they pull the trigger. Ideally, you would also like to know if Sale or Fernandez could be available for the same prospects, or less. Just to get a sense of fair market value. The Red Sox are not accepting that offer. Come to me with a rumor about what the Red Sox are willing to offer not what some team wants, the Astros wanted Bogaerts for Bud Norris. Can't say if you're right or wrong. Multiple rumors have DDo making a lightning strike for young elite arms before the deadline. Maybe Fernandez or Sale will be made available, but they will cost as much or more, and they may not be prospects only. The advantage to this deal is that it can be prospects only. Others have wanted Bradley, Betts, even Bogie, who DDo won't trade.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 1, 2016 13:36:18 GMT -5
Can't say if you're right or wrong. Multiple rumors have DDo making a lightning strike for young elite arms before the deadline. Maybe Fernandez or Sale will be made available, but they will cost as much or more, and they may not be prospects only.The advantage to this deal is that it can be prospects only. Others have wanted Bradley, Betts, even Bogie, who DDo won't trade. Even if Fernandez or Sale cost as much as that package for Teheran you keep pushing, those two are legitimate aces which cannot be said about Tehran.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 13:44:17 GMT -5
Can't say if you're right or wrong. Multiple rumors have DDo making a lightning strike for young elite arms before the deadline. Maybe Fernandez or Sale will be made available, but they will cost as much or more, and they may not be prospects only.The advantage to this deal is that it can be prospects only. Others have wanted Bradley, Betts, even Bogie, who DDo won't trade. Even if Fernandez or Sale cost as much as that package for Teheran you keep pushing, those two are legitimate aces which cannot be said about Tehran. That would be why you want Teheran now, before the crowd realizes he is also a legitimate ace. When investing, bet against the herd. ADD: Welcome to the forum!
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Post by cto94 on Jul 1, 2016 13:55:20 GMT -5
The Red Sox are not accepting that offer. Come to me with a rumor about what the Red Sox are willing to offer not what some team wants, the Astros wanted Bogaerts for Bud Norris. Can't say if you're right or wrong. Multiple rumors have DDo making a lightning strike for young elite arms before the deadline. Maybe Fernandez or Sale will be made available, but they will cost as much or more, and they may not be prospects only. The advantage to this deal is that it can be prospects only. Others have wanted Bradley, Betts, even Bogie, who DDo won't trade. There is no way that anyone can cost a whole lot more than Moncada, Benintendi and Kopech. When was the last time 2 top 10 or 15 prospects in all of baseball were moved in the same deal? If you replace Kopech with Espinoza in that deal, I'm pretty sure you could acquire pretty much any player in baseball short of Mike Trout and Kershaw. That's as good a prospect package as any team in the majors can offer. And the fact that Buster Olney says we'll make a lightning strike for elite young arms doesn't mean he's going to deal our 3 best prospects for Julio Teheran, and the idea that Teheran is a bargain at that price in prospects is crazy regardless of his contract. Presenting him in comparison to Price, Greinke and others is also ludicrous- those guys have Cy Youngs and long track records with excellent peripherals, not short runs of success with shaky batted ball numbers. You could compare him to Porcello, who is a much more realistic comparison, and he offers some savings, but he does not have the production and track record of a $30m/year pitcher- not even close, and he bears pretty limited statistical similarity to any of them
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 14:24:38 GMT -5
Can't say if you're right or wrong. Multiple rumors have DDo making a lightning strike for young elite arms before the deadline. Maybe Fernandez or Sale will be made available, but they will cost as much or more, and they may not be prospects only. The advantage to this deal is that it can be prospects only. Others have wanted Bradley, Betts, even Bogie, who DDo won't trade. There is no way that anyone can cost a whole lot more than Moncada, Benintendi and Kopech. When was the last time 2 top 10 or 15 prospects in all of baseball were moved in the same deal? If you replace Kopech with Espinoza in that deal, I'm pretty sure you could acquire pretty much any player in baseball short of Mike Trout and Kershaw. That's as good a prospect package as any team in the majors can offer. And the fact that Buster Olney says we'll make a lightning strike for elite young arms doesn't mean he's going to deal our 3 best prospects for Julio Teheran, and the idea that Teheran is a bargain at that price in prospects is crazy regardless of his contract. Presenting him in comparison to Price, Greinke and others is also ludicrous- those guys have Cy Youngs and long track records with excellent peripherals, not short runs of success with shaky batted ball numbers. You could compare him to Porcello, who is a much more realistic comparison, and he offers some savings, but he does not have the production and track record of a $30m/year pitcher- not even close, and he bears pretty limited statistical similarity to any of them It's a matter of perspective. If the Sox believe he is an ace, then all these other things follow naturally. You don't believe it, so from your perspective, it's crazy. Prospect deals are relatively rare, but that's because teams don't want to take prospects, they're too risky or take too long to impact the team. Trades usually require MLB players.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 1, 2016 14:40:42 GMT -5
This is almost a no win for us. I lean towards rolling with what we have & just obtain a Pomeranz type. This time next year, we'll be saying the same thing we're saying now about Betts & Bogaerts (regarding keeping AB/Moncada).
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2016 15:12:20 GMT -5
There is no way that anyone can cost a whole lot more than Moncada, Benintendi and Kopech. When was the last time 2 top 10 or 15 prospects in all of baseball were moved in the same deal? If you replace Kopech with Espinoza in that deal, I'm pretty sure you could acquire pretty much any player in baseball short of Mike Trout and Kershaw. That's as good a prospect package as any team in the majors can offer. And the fact that Buster Olney says we'll make a lightning strike for elite young arms doesn't mean he's going to deal our 3 best prospects for Julio Teheran, and the idea that Teheran is a bargain at that price in prospects is crazy regardless of his contract. Presenting him in comparison to Price, Greinke and others is also ludicrous- those guys have Cy Youngs and long track records with excellent peripherals, not short runs of success with shaky batted ball numbers. You could compare him to Porcello, who is a much more realistic comparison, and he offers some savings, but he does not have the production and track record of a $30m/year pitcher- not even close, and he bears pretty limited statistical similarity to any of them It's a matter of perspective. If the Sox believe he is an ace, then all these other things follow naturally. You don't believe it, so from your perspective, it's crazy. Prospect deals are relatively rare, but that's because teams don't want to take prospects, they're too risky or take too long to impact the team. Trades usually require MLB players. If the Sox believe it, they're crazy and doomed to never win again.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 1, 2016 15:22:20 GMT -5
There is no way that anyone can cost a whole lot more than Moncada, Benintendi and Kopech. When was the last time 2 top 10 or 15 prospects in all of baseball were moved in the same deal? If you replace Kopech with Espinoza in that deal, I'm pretty sure you could acquire pretty much any player in baseball short of Mike Trout and Kershaw. That's as good a prospect package as any team in the majors can offer. And the fact that Buster Olney says we'll make a lightning strike for elite young arms doesn't mean he's going to deal our 3 best prospects for Julio Teheran, and the idea that Teheran is a bargain at that price in prospects is crazy regardless of his contract. Presenting him in comparison to Price, Greinke and others is also ludicrous- those guys have Cy Youngs and long track records with excellent peripherals, not short runs of success with shaky batted ball numbers. You could compare him to Porcello, who is a much more realistic comparison, and he offers some savings, but he does not have the production and track record of a $30m/year pitcher- not even close, and he bears pretty limited statistical similarity to any of them It's a matter of perspective. If the Sox believe he is an ace, then all these other things follow naturally. You don't believe it, so from your perspective, it's crazy. Prospect deals are relatively rare, but that's because teams don't want to take prospects, they're too risky or take too long to impact the team. Trades usually require MLB players. Does anyone besides you think Teheran is a true ACE?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 1, 2016 15:46:21 GMT -5
This trade deadline talk is already reminding me of a few years ago when the Gary Tanguay types of the world wanted to trade Bogaerts for Cliff Lee. It's impossible to respect any argument that cites players as "just prospects", as if Yoan Moncada and, say, Michael Chavis deserve to be grouped together. It's like saying Brock Holt and Mike Trout are both proven players, it has no value.
EDIT: And while we're at it, how about trading a proven player like Brock Holt for just a prospect like Giolito or Glasnow? I mean, they are just prospects after all.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 17:55:01 GMT -5
It's a matter of perspective. If the Sox believe he is an ace, then all these other things follow naturally. You don't believe it, so from your perspective, it's crazy. Prospect deals are relatively rare, but that's because teams don't want to take prospects, they're too risky or take too long to impact the team. Trades usually require MLB players. Does anyone besides you think Teheran is a true ACE? I can assure you this has nothing to do with me. I'm not involved in the negotiations between the teams. I'm just sharing what I know. I think everyone would agree that if the Sox are going to trade Moncada/Kopech/Devers (or Moncada/Johnson/Benintendi) for Teheran, then the Sox must believe that Teheran has become an ace. Not all ace pitchers start out as aces. Some start out slowly and develop and then one day just turn into aces. Arietta, for example, was 20-25 with a bulging 5.46 ERA in parts of four seasons with the Orioles. He then found his timing and went 47-14 with a 2.17 ERA over about the same timespan in Chicago. As Arietta explains the difference, "Mechanically, my timing is where I would like it, and in Baltimore I didn't have it and I didn't know how to find my timing. I searched for it."
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 18:24:09 GMT -5
It's a matter of perspective. If the Sox believe he is an ace, then all these other things follow naturally. You don't believe it, so from your perspective, it's crazy (ADD: or you're so very sure they're crazy and doomed never to win again). Prospect deals are relatively rare, but that's because teams don't want to take prospects, they're too risky or take too long to impact the team. Trades usually require MLB players. If the Sox believe it, they're crazy and doomed to never win again. FIFY
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Post by telson13 on Jul 1, 2016 19:05:03 GMT -5
That's a change in pitching approach/location, not adding new pitches that's mentioned in that article. Also worth noting that in it, the author noted that Teheran was DEAD LAST in ERA and FIP on the road in the majors in 2015- but home park wouldn't affect his results right? And sure, but it kind of is an argument, because it seems relatively clear to me (and seemingly most others) that Teheran will not be a dominant ace for a long time, or at least to bet on him doing so would be an incredibly risky proposition and not one that we should bet a good chunk of our future as an organization on. And you have spent a good deal of time citing (in my view) somewhat questionable evidence for that deal being a good idea, which is mostly what is being contested here- it's a discussion board, it's here for discussion and reasoned debate, not for someone to say "I heard this might happen, nobody question it until we know it won't," which is the only way I can interpret the idea that this is a story and we'll get to see how it turns out. That could be applied to any thread on this site and it would be quite a lot less interesting Yeah, the story goes that 2015 was an outlier, for many reasons, including pitch selection: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/23/11096368/julio-teheran-braves-fastballI try not to let my own beliefs get in the way. Still, I do believe, and maybe this gets in the way, that the only way to make enormous gains in trading is to take contrarian positions against the herd. Buy low, sell high. That would be Teheran. If the Sox are right, and Teheran is a dominant ace for many years, then the Braves are taking a big risk to let him go, and will need to get maximum value from Moncada, Kopech and Devers. I surmise the Sox will choose to keep Johnson and Benny, but that is just my own guess. Did you really just call making a play for Teheran right now a "buy low?" Buy low was last September, not now. How can you say things like that and actually believe them, or at least present them as believable?
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 19:29:20 GMT -5
Yeah, the story goes that 2015 was an outlier, for many reasons, including pitch selection: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/23/11096368/julio-teheran-braves-fastballI try not to let my own beliefs get in the way. Still, I do believe, and maybe this gets in the way, that the only way to make enormous gains in trading is to take contrarian positions against the herd. Buy low, sell high. That would be Teheran. If the Sox are right, and Teheran is a dominant ace for many years, then the Braves are taking a big risk to let him go, and will need to get maximum value from Moncada, Kopech and Devers. I surmise the Sox will choose to keep Johnson and Benny, but that is just my own guess. Did you really just call making a play for Teheran right now a "buy low?" Buy low was last September, not now. How can you say things like that and actually believe them, or at least present them as believable? Well, if Teheran has become an ace, comparable to Sale, Fernandez, etc., then the Sox are certainly buying low on him. No one, it seems from this forum, recognizes that he has achieved that status (if he has), and other teams are not competing for him the way that they would for Sale and Fernandez. This is a big gamble the Sox are taking, if they pull the trigger, but if they are right, and Teheran continues the success he's had over the last 11 games for the next 5 and half years, they will have pulled off the coup of the decade (with over $120M in surplus value in his current contract).
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Post by jayhawk on Jul 1, 2016 22:43:48 GMT -5
Did you really just call making a play for Teheran right now a "buy low?" Buy low was last September, not now. How can you say things like that and actually believe them, or at least present them as believable? Well, if Teheran has become an ace, comparable to Sale, Fernandez, etc., then the Sox are certainly buying low on him. No one, it seems from this forum, recognizes that he has achieved that status (if he has), and other teams are not competing for him the way that they would for Sale and Fernandez. This is a big gamble the Sox are taking, if they pull the trigger, but if they are right, and Teheran continues the success he's had over the last 11 games for the next 5 and half years, they will have pulled off the coup of the decade (with over $120M in surplus value in his current contract). Yes, but buying low implies the Sox would be paying less than they would for an ace pitcher. Offering Benintendi, Moncada and additional pieces is exactly what it would cost to get a true ace like Sale and Fernandez. By definition then that's not buying low, that's paying market rate. When you factor in the risk of Teheran not, in fact, being an ace-quality pitcher in the AL you go from market rate to overpaying very quickly.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 1, 2016 23:02:35 GMT -5
Did you really just call making a play for Teheran right now a "buy low?" Buy low was last September, not now. How can you say things like that and actually believe them, or at least present them as believable? Well, if Teheran has become an ace, comparable to Sale, Fernandez, etc., then the Sox are certainly buying low on him. No one, it seems from this forum, recognizes that he has achieved that status (if he has), and other teams are not competing for him the way that they would for Sale and Fernandez. This is a big gamble the Sox are taking, if they pull the trigger, but if they are right, and Teheran continues the success he's had over the last 11 games for the next 5 and half years, they will have pulled off the coup of the decade (with over $120M in surplus value in his current contract). They're only "buying low" if they don't give up a ton. Any two of the top4, especially inclusive of Moncada, is not "buying low." It's paying ace prices for a guy most teams recognize isn't an ace. Everything beneath the surface of his stat line says that he isn't. That's akin to giving Johnny Cueto 6/$200 because you think he's an ace. Even if he turns out pitching like one, you're not getting a bargain. Paying 6/$130 for the Giants and getting 11-1, low-2 Cueto is "buying low." Your rationale is entirely backwards.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 23:20:24 GMT -5
Well, if Teheran has become an ace, comparable to Sale, Fernandez, etc., then the Sox are certainly buying low on him. No one, it seems from this forum, recognizes that he has achieved that status (if he has), and other teams are not competing for him the way that they would for Sale and Fernandez. This is a big gamble the Sox are taking, if they pull the trigger, but if they are right, and Teheran continues the success he's had over the last 11 games for the next 5 and half years, they will have pulled off the coup of the decade (with over $120M in surplus value in his current contract). Yes, but buying low implies the Sox would be paying less than they would for an ace pitcher. Offering Benintendi, Moncada and additional pieces is exactly what it would cost to get a true ace like Sale and Fernandez. By definition then that's not buying low, that's paying market rate. When you factor in the risk of Teheran not, in fact, being an ace-quality pitcher in the AL you go from market rate to overpaying very quickly. I don't have any information about what the price is for Sale or Fernandez, but if I hear anything I'll let you know. It isn't plausible to say that the price would be the same as it is for Teheran, since nobody else is bidding the price up for Teheran. Other teams would be bidding like crazy for Sale and Fernandez if they were made available, and the bidding war would start with actual MLB players, not prospects only. Think Bogie, Betts, Bradley maybe. Prospect only deals are relatively rare for a reason, not many teams are willing to assume that much risk.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 1, 2016 23:22:05 GMT -5
Well, if Teheran has become an ace, comparable to Sale, Fernandez, etc., then the Sox are certainly buying low on him. No one, it seems from this forum, recognizes that he has achieved that status (if he has), and other teams are not competing for him the way that they would for Sale and Fernandez. This is a big gamble the Sox are taking, if they pull the trigger, but if they are right, and Teheran continues the success he's had over the last 11 games for the next 5 and half years, they will have pulled off the coup of the decade (with over $120M in surplus value in his current contract). They're only "buying low" if they don't give up a ton. Any two of the top4, especially inclusive of Moncada, is not "buying low." It's paying ace prices for a guy most teams recognize isn't an ace. Everything beneath the surface of his stat line says that he isn't. That's akin to giving Johnny Cueto 6/$200 because you think he's an ace. Even if he turns out pitching like one, you're not getting a bargain. Paying 6/$130 for the Giants and getting 11-1, low-2 Cueto is "buying low." Your rationale is entirely backwards. That the price is the same may not be plausible (but I don't have any information yet), as I say in the previous post.
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 2, 2016 0:03:28 GMT -5
This Teheran kid looked good tonight
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