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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2016 9:39:17 GMT -5
That is not true. CBT calculations are based on what is paid in salary which doesn't begin until the season starts, pro-rated for each day of the season. I saw on another thread pointed out by Jmie and a Speier article that the Sox were approximately 12.5 million under the tax threshold when the off-season began. Chris Sale cost 6.5 million in the CBT this year. Moreland is about 5.5 million. Tyler Thornburg will cost about 2.5 million this year. This means they are already 2-3 million over the CBT. Clay Buchholz will cost this team even more each day he spends on this roster this season. He's the most expensive piece on a short term deal that is the most expendable. Right, but he doesn't count a dime until opening day. There is no rush.
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Post by jmei on Dec 8, 2016 9:56:03 GMT -5
That is not true. CBT calculations are based on what is paid in salary which doesn't begin until the season starts, pro-rated for each day of the season. I saw on another thread pointed out by Jmie and a Speier article that the Sox were approximately 12.5 million under the tax threshold when the off-season began. Chris Sale cost 6.5 million in the CBT this year. Moreland is about 5.5 million. Tyler Thornburg will cost about 2.5 million this year. This means they are already 2-3 million over the CBT. Clay Buchholz will cost this team even more each day he spends on this roster this season. He's the most expensive piece on a short term deal that is the most expendable. That's not exactly right. Here's Speier's newsletter from yesterday:
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 8, 2016 11:49:20 GMT -5
I think we'd all be stunned, or at least surprised, if the trio of E-Rod, Pomeranz, and Buccholz were still on the roster come opening day. One or two of them will almost certainly be moved for prospects or guys under team control at the MLB minimum. The Sox will likely have $ to spend on an in-season acquisition if need be and still probably be able to get under $195
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 8, 2016 12:25:42 GMT -5
I think we'd all be stunned, or at least surprised, if the trio of E-Rod, Pomeranz, and Buccholz were still on the roster come opening day. One or two of them will almost certainly be moved for prospects or guys under team control at the MLB minimum. The Sox will likely have $ to spend on an in-season acquisition if need be and still probably be able to get under $195 I think they should all be on the roster at the start of spring training, though. Right now we're all wondering how we fit seven starters into five slots. It's easy: three of them have to suck and/or be injured. Pomeranz and Wright have significant health risks, Buchholz has significant suckage risks, and as much as I love Eddie Rodriguez he's hardly a model of consistency. So it hardly impossible that you might just need all of these guys, especially given that the upper minors pitching depth is something between questionable and apocalyptic right now. Given that the market for starters is perpetually strong, I'd just as soon hang onto all the starters until you absolutely can't shoehorn them all onto the big league roster.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 8, 2016 13:29:44 GMT -5
I just feels weird though, having two 2016 Allstars (Wright and Pom), and Buchholz who has shown literally every year he can put 10 good or great starts together all of them in triple A or the bullpen just for the "just in case' scenario. Henry Owens, BJ Workman should be those kinda guys. We can't pay someone 13 mIL to chill in triple A and wait for someone to get hurt can we?
One of them should go, and preferably for a cost controlled MLer or maybe a top 15 prospect in the corner IF.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 8, 2016 14:05:12 GMT -5
I just feels weird though, having two 2016 Allstars (Wright and Pom), and Buchholz who has shown literally every year he can put 10 good or great starts together all of them in triple A or the bullpen just for the "just in case' scenario. Henry Owens, BJ Workman should be those kinda guys. We can't pay someone 13 mIL to chill in triple A and wait for someone to get hurt can we? One of them should go, and preferably for a cost controlled MLer or maybe a top 15 prospect in the corner IF. Well they're not going to stash Buchholz in AAA. They can't do that due to his service time. I get what you're saying, but we can't count on Workman or Owens to be backup options because they've both been terrible in the majors. Not to mention Workman didn't pitch in 2015 and barely pitched this year due to surgery. Both of them are worst case scenario options.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 8, 2016 14:11:11 GMT -5
If Owens, Workman or Johnson end up being usable back end starters, I won't be shocked, but as far as team construction is concerned you have to assume you're getting nothing from any of them.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 8, 2016 15:08:10 GMT -5
I just feels weird though, having two 2016 Allstars (Wright and Pom), and Buchholz who has shown literally every year he can put 10 good or great starts together all of them in triple A or the bullpen just for the "just in case' scenario. Henry Owens, BJ Workman should be those kinda guys. We can't pay someone 13 mIL to chill in triple A and wait for someone to get hurt can we? One of them should go, and preferably for a cost controlled MLer or maybe a top 15 prospect in the corner IF. Well they're not going to stash Buchholz in AAA. They can't do that due to his service time. I get what you're saying, but we can't count on Workman or Owens to be backup options because they've both been terrible in the majors. Not to mention Workman didn't pitch in 2015 and barely pitched this year due to surgery. Both of them are worst case scenario options. I did totally brainfart on Workman being out and before that ineffective. Also forgot about Bucholz. He would be a worse case. In Henry Owens with some possible improvement (always possible) I think he'd be a different kinda lefty to throw at ML hitters in the 5th spot. We also habe Kelly and Elias to spot start and both have had success I just feel like one or two of Elias, Wright, EE, Buch, Pom could be moved for a usable part of even a decent proepect. I'd like to keep Erod of course but the Return on him would be the highest and Clay would get us something, as well as the money off the books. Edit: to fenwaythehardway. I totally agree with maybe Henry Owens maybe being in the plans somehow if things fall apart. Of course they aren't on the squad. I just feel like Roenis, EE, or Clay could get us a usable piece maybe in the bullpen, maybe a util, or 45v prospect. All in all I'm ecstatic with the glut of ML ready backend starters we have in insurance, or to trade.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2016 15:51:20 GMT -5
Well they're not going to stash Buchholz in AAA. They can't do that due to his service time. I get what you're saying, but we can't count on Workman or Owens to be backup options because they've both been terrible in the majors. Not to mention Workman didn't pitch in 2015 and barely pitched this year due to surgery. Both of them are worst case scenario options. I did totally brainfart on Workman being out and before that ineffective. Also forgot about Bucholz. He would be a worse case. In Henry Owens with some possible improvement (always possible) I think he'd be a different kinda lefty to throw at ML hitters in the 5th spot. We also habe Kelly and Elias to spot start and both have had success I just feel like one or two of Elias, Wright, EE, Buch, Pom could be moved for a usable part of even a decent proepect. I'd like to keep Erod of course but the Return on him would be the highest and Clay would get us something, as well as the money off the books. Edit: to fenwaythehardway. I totally agree with maybe Henry Owens maybe being in the plans somehow if things fall apart. Of course they aren't on the squad. I just feel like Roenis, EE, or Clay could get us a usable piece maybe in the bullpen, maybe a util, or 45v prospect. All in all I'm ecstatic with the glut of ML ready backend starters we have in insurance, or to trade. Who is EE? Escobar? We lost him to Arizona last April. Elias is worthless without options. I'm also having trouble figuring out how Workman still has an option left.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 8, 2016 19:05:50 GMT -5
I did totally brainfart on Workman being out and before that ineffective. Also forgot about Bucholz. He would be a worse case. In Henry Owens with some possible improvement (always possible) I think he'd be a different kinda lefty to throw at ML hitters in the 5th spot. We also habe Kelly and Elias to spot start and both have had success I just feel like one or two of Elias, Wright, EE, Buch, Pom could be moved for a usable part of even a decent proepect. I'd like to keep Erod of course but the Return on him would be the highest and Clay would get us something, as well as the money off the books. Edit: to fenwaythehardway. I totally agree with maybe Henry Owens maybe being in the plans somehow if things fall apart. Of course they aren't on the squad. I just feel like Roenis, EE, or Clay could get us a usable piece maybe in the bullpen, maybe a util, or 45v prospect. All in all I'm ecstatic with the glut of ML ready backend starters we have in insurance, or to trade. Who is EE? Escobar? We lost him to Arizona last April. Elias is worthless without options. I'm also having trouble figuring out how Workman still has an option left. He must somehow be referring to Eduardo Rodriguez? Not sure who else he could possibly be referencing.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 9, 2016 11:43:23 GMT -5
I did totally brainfart on Workman being out and before that ineffective. Also forgot about Bucholz. He would be a worse case. In Henry Owens with some possible improvement (always possible) I think he'd be a different kinda lefty to throw at ML hitters in the 5th spot. We also habe Kelly and Elias to spot start and both have had success I just feel like one or two of Elias, Wright, EE, Buch, Pom could be moved for a usable part of even a decent proepect. I'd like to keep Erod of course but the Return on him would be the highest and Clay would get us something, as well as the money off the books. Edit: to fenwaythehardway. I totally agree with maybe Henry Owens maybe being in the plans somehow if things fall apart. Of course they aren't on the squad. I just feel like Roenis, EE, or Clay could get us a usable piece maybe in the bullpen, maybe a util, or 45v prospect. All in all I'm ecstatic with the glut of ML ready backend starters we have in insurance, or to trade. Who is EE? Escobar? We lost him to Arizona last April. Elias is worthless without options. I'm also having trouble figuring out how Workman still has an option left. Obviously I meant we have edwin encarnacion in the rotation and have to move him for a piece somehow...and although I admitted on the availability brainfarts on buchholz and workman. Thank you for reminding me. Jeez, and somehow you still didn't provide any response to my comment apart from grammatical errors already admitted. You're welcome. Really Elias is worthless, and only bc he has no options? Hes never had any success as a ML pitcher? Obviously I meant Eduardo (Erod), bc I referenced him by that name in the same thought about getting a piece for him. I guess the Soxprospects comments haven't changed much. Feels like talking baseball with a real life Tony Mazz
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2016 12:45:00 GMT -5
Elias, Seattle 2014/2015 49 starts, era just below 4, whip 1.3, 280 innings.
Are those not decent numbers for a #5 ??
The Sox should be able to get something for the farm for him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2016 14:01:19 GMT -5
Who is EE? Escobar? We lost him to Arizona last April. Elias is worthless without options. I'm also having trouble figuring out how Workman still has an option left. Obviously I meant we have edwin encarnacion in the rotation and have to move him for a piece somehow...and although I admitted on the availability brainfarts on buchholz and workman. Thank you for reminding me. Jeez, and somehow you still didn't provide any response to my comment apart from grammatical errors already admitted. You're welcome. Really Elias is worthless, and only bc he has no options? Hes never had any success as a ML pitcher? Obviously I meant Eduardo (Erod), bc I referenced him by that name in the same thought about getting a piece for him. I guess the Soxprospects comments haven't changed much. Feels like talking baseball with a real life Tony Mazz We have Edwin Encarnacion in the rotation? The DH that's going elsewhere? You meant E-Rod. Why would the Sox need to move E-Rod? They'll move Buchholz to get under the luxury tax limit, but they won't get much for him. E-Rod, they could get a lot for, but he hasn't fully developed, although he started showing signs when healthy last year. He makes minimal money. Why trade him? Unless the Sox are getting some premier minor league talent? The Red Sox could deal Wright, but I don't know why they'd want to. They seem to want to hold onto Pomeranz, whose value is down. The Sox certainly won't get an Anderson Espinoza like talent back for him, which should provide a clue that the Red Sox really overpaid for Pomeranz. I don't think Dombrowski is really in a hurry to deal him. My guess is that Pomeranz gets hurt next season and misses a significant amount of time, but that' just a guess. I wouldn't be surprised if E-Rod has issues from pitching in the WBC. Somewhere along the line I suspect they'll need Steven Wright, who should be able to eat innings and provide quality. I personally would prefer they start Sale/Porcello/Price/E-Rod/Wright in the rotation and move Pomeranz to the pen (Espinoza for a lefty setup man??? Yeesh.), but I think Wright will probably start the season in the pen if everybody else is healthy and come into the rotation when needed. I think they'll only wind up dealing Buchholz. I'll be surprised if the Red Sox get better than a second tier prospect for him. Honestly I think the Red Sox want the other team to pay all of Buchholz's $13.5 million, so the Sox might not even get that. Perhaps they hold onto Buchholz until spring training and when some team inevitably has an injury Buchholz might have more value then.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 9, 2016 15:44:33 GMT -5
Cmon guy^ I was being sarcastic to the guy who was being sarcastic to me.
Edit- and in the original post I said I'd rather keep Erod, but I also believe Buchholz has shown he's capable of being a 3rd starter or better with a change of scenery. He's been a borderline number 1 a few years ago. I think the return for him would be a tad better than organizational fodder
Flipping EROD would obviously net the most return, as he had the highest upside. I'm not sure there would be many teams likely to give up much for the ? That can be Wright. Elias has proved himself in Seattle a little. I was just saying maybe a combination of those guys or in tandem with someone from the org. To a pitching deprived team (like the rubby/Webster trade) could net us something useful. I do know that having a 7th starter without ML options in the bullpen doesn't help much. Or putting EROD in AAA doesn't help either. Lost Koji today too.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2016 16:41:15 GMT -5
Who is EE? Escobar? We lost him to Arizona last April. Elias is worthless without options. I'm also having trouble figuring out how Workman still has an option left. Obviously I meant we have edwin encarnacion in the rotation and have to move him for a piece somehow...and although I admitted on the availability brainfarts on buchholz and workman. Thank you for reminding me. Jeez, and somehow you still didn't provide any response to my comment apart from grammatical errors already admitted. You're welcome. Really Elias is worthless, and only bc he has no options? Hes never had any success as a ML pitcher? Obviously I meant Eduardo (Erod), bc I referenced him by that name in the same thought about getting a piece for him. I guess the Soxprospects comments haven't changed much. Feels like talking baseball with a real life Tony Mazz I didn't mean any disrespect. I honestly didn't know who you were talking about. There's no way that I'd trade ERod unless I'm getting a Shelby Miller return, not just a prospect who is worse than he is.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2016 16:42:39 GMT -5
Elias, Seattle 2014/2015 49 starts, era just below 4, whip 1.3, 280 innings. Are those not decent numbers for a #5 ?? The Sox should be able to get something for the farm for him. The Red Sox would have to put him on the 25 man roster or DFA him. Other teams know that he won't be on the roster so they'll just wait until he's DFA'd. Those guys don't get traded for much.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2016 1:05:53 GMT -5
Elias, Seattle 2014/2015 49 starts, era just below 4, whip 1.3, 280 innings. Are those not decent numbers for a #5 ?? The Sox should be able to get something for the farm for him. The Red Sox would have to put him on the 25 man roster or DFA him. Other teams know that he won't be on the roster so they'll just wait until he's DFA'd. Those guys don't get traded for much. If he's DFA'd, he's on waivers, and he'll go to the team with the best claiming position. If he looks real good in ST, he'll have some trade value, depending on how many teams lose SP to injuries.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 11, 2016 4:16:00 GMT -5
[/quote]I didn't mean any disrespect. I honestly didn't know who you were talking about.
There's no way that I'd trade ERod unless I'm getting a Shelby Miller return, not just a prospect who is worse than he is. [/quote][br
To be honest I overreacted a bit to your comment because of what you and someone else had said. I don't think Erod has right now, as much potential as Shelby showed THEN. If you know what I mean, obviously it hasn't panned out. It sounds nice to hear Erod in the same sentence as Shelby bc I think Erod can be that type of guy. A #2, Mayne 3.
I do think however with his cost control, the haul we could get for him would be beat not having him, while Wright pitching and also having the players we get for him. If that makes any sense. He is a potential ace though. And several times the past couple years he has looked (and been) unhurt able almost. So in that way I agree. I just think there has to be some movement with the back end guys
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2016 14:37:57 GMT -5
Rodriguez getting some work in Venezuela this winter. Made his debut last week.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2016 18:15:33 GMT -5
The Red Sox would have to put him on the 25 man roster or DFA him. Other teams know that he won't be on the roster so they'll just wait until he's DFA'd. Those guys don't get traded for much. If he's DFA'd, he's on waivers, and he'll go to the team with the best claiming position. If he looks real good in ST, he'll have some trade value, depending on how many teams lose SP to injuries. How much would you be willing to give up for someone with no options and little MLB success after they look good in ST? I wouldn't give up anything more than someone like Deven Marrero and maybe not even that much. There's a pretty good likelihood that he gets DFA'd again a month into the season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2016 19:26:50 GMT -5
If he's DFA'd, he's on waivers, and he'll go to the team with the best claiming position. If he looks real good in ST, he'll have some trade value, depending on how many teams lose SP to injuries. How much would you be willing to give up for someone with no options and little MLB success after they look good in ST? I wouldn't give up anything more than someone like Deven Marrero and maybe not even that much. There's a pretty good likelihood that he gets DFA'd again a month into the season. Elias was arguably an effective number five for the Mariners for the entirety of 2014 and a decent chunk of 2015. He was ok and not great in Pawtucket last year, but he's got a major league track record, and if he's throwing well in ST, he could be moved. They got Robbie Ross for Anthony Ranaudo, who yes, had options, but he hadn't done squat in the majors and by that point his stock was falling fast. They wouldn't get Ross, but they could get something useful. Heck, they got Marco Hernandez for the corpse of Felix Doubront.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2016 20:43:24 GMT -5
How much would you be willing to give up for someone with no options and little MLB success after they look good in ST? I wouldn't give up anything more than someone like Deven Marrero and maybe not even that much. There's a pretty good likelihood that he gets DFA'd again a month into the season. Elias was arguably an effective number five for the Mariners for the entirety of 2014 and a decent chunk of 2015. He was ok and not great in Pawtucket last year, but he's got a major league track record, and if he's throwing well in ST, he could be moved. They got Robbie Ross for Anthony Ranaudo, who yes, had options, but he hadn't done squat in the majors and by that point his stock was falling fast. They wouldn't get Ross, but they could get something useful. Heck, they got Marco Hernandez for the corpse of Felix Doubront. Marco Hernandez at the time was about as highly regarded as Deven Marrero is now, so that lines up.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 13, 2016 0:21:34 GMT -5
Elias was arguably an effective number five for the Mariners for the entirety of 2014 and a decent chunk of 2015. He was ok and not great in Pawtucket last year, but he's got a major league track record, and if he's throwing well in ST, he could be moved. They got Robbie Ross for Anthony Ranaudo, who yes, had options, but he hadn't done squat in the majors and by that point his stock was falling fast. They wouldn't get Ross, but they could get something useful. Heck, they got Marco Hernandez for the corpse of Felix Doubront. Marco Hernandez at the time was about as highly regarded as Deven Marrero is now, so that lines up. Well, not exactly. He was just coming off a solid high-A offensive season and was considered a guy with some moderate offensive upside and solid if unspectacular defense. I guess maybe overall value-wise, but probably a wider ceiling-floor range. I think Elias could bring *someone* marginally valuable back, maybe a Diaz-like arm in rookie ball. SD has zero MLB-caliber starters, so...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2016 2:49:34 GMT -5
Marco Hernandez at the time was about as highly regarded as Deven Marrero is now, so that lines up. Well, not exactly. He was just coming off a solid high-A offensive season and was considered a guy with some moderate offensive upside and solid if unspectacular defense. I guess maybe overall value-wise, but probably a wider ceiling-floor range. I think Elias could bring *someone* marginally valuable back, maybe a Diaz-like arm in rookie ball. SD has zero MLB-caliber starters, so... Wild speculation here but there's pretty much zero chance DD will deal with San Diego. So far, it looks like they are being blackballed. Also, the year before Boston got Hernandez as the PTBNL, he was a Cubs low teens ranked prospect in what was a strong system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2016 15:37:04 GMT -5
And Hernandez had just stopped switch-hitting, so there was upside if that took. He had a good deal more stock than Marrero does now.
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