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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 17, 2017 19:43:29 GMT -5
This has huge implications for the construction of next year's team. Signing a SP who's a good bet to make 25 starts and pitch to a league average ERA is going to cost well into the eight figures/year and probably require two years minimum. It would seem impossible to do that and sign a big-ticket FA.
I was thinking of CC Sabathia even before the Ed-Rod news. I can easily see teams offering him two years at $15 million/per and somebody having to add a third year to get him to sign.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2017 22:20:27 GMT -5
Not really all that surprising I suppose. Hopefully it alleviates that threat of his knee being a hovering issue every year. Steven Wright is going to be an important guy next year, and I certainly hope he gets his chance. He was extremely impressive for the first half of 2016 before our former manager decided he'd make an acceptable pinch-runner.
Velazquez was impressive and I have no qualms about him getting starts. And Beeks has done nothing to not merit a shot, so I think they have sufficient depth to survive. The big question mark is David Price, and they probably need to use some extra days off or do something to preserve Chris Sale better so he doesn't have the same 2nd half he's pretty much had all of his career.
I don't think they'll bring back Fister and I think Johnson winds up elsewhere, though. If they can bring back Fister for very cheap, perhaps? But I think he'll wind up elsewhere.
Of course this means that he won't be part of any theoretical Stanton deal. That was a long-shot anyways. It means they'll go full blast trying to get Martinez.
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Post by swingingbunt on Oct 18, 2017 0:09:08 GMT -5
From Abraham
Sox got back to me on this. They meant “return to pitching” as “return to the majors.” So perhaps not as dire as first thought.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2017 8:07:43 GMT -5
3:58 AM ? Pete's doing off season late nighters or early ups. Go Pete...
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2017 8:28:20 GMT -5
From Abraham Sox got back to me on this. They meant “return to pitching” as “return to the majors.” So perhaps not as dire as first thought. So in other words, he'll be ready for spring training like everyone else? This makes no sense to word it like that.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2017 8:39:42 GMT -5
Opening day is earlier next year (late March), so he probably won't be ready to go on day one. Six months would put him in mid-to-late April.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2017 9:35:00 GMT -5
Hm. So potentially, with both Wright and Rodriguez looking at early season returns, the add is probably someone to replace Kendrick, unless you can get a Fister type on the cheap.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2017 11:34:33 GMT -5
The one positive is the Red Sox now have an early season rotation spot up for grabs, so they're a more appealing destination for the Fister types. It'd be hard to convince a pitcher with multiple suitors to sign here with the five rotation spots all locked up, so the opportunity to start the season in the rotation could be the difference between signing a guy you kinda like vs. taking whoever is left over.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 18, 2017 11:42:39 GMT -5
Give Brian Johnson the shot!
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Post by Guidas on Oct 18, 2017 11:47:41 GMT -5
This completely scotches my idea of trading Porcello for what you can get at full salary. How unthinking of Eduardo to mess up my arm-chair GMing.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2017 15:28:47 GMT -5
Hm. So potentially, with both Wright and Rodriguez looking at early season returns, the add is probably someone to replace Kendrick, unless you can get a Fister type on the cheap. Aren't Johnson, Velazquez and Beeks better than a Kendrick?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2017 16:34:26 GMT -5
Hm. So potentially, with both Wright and Rodriguez looking at early season returns, the add is probably someone to replace Kendrick, unless you can get a Fister type on the cheap. Aren't Johnson, Velazquez and Beeks better than a Kendrick? My point is that they will sign someone to be a depth arm rather than to go and get someone who you'd expect to stay in the major league rotation all year. I didn't mean literally go sign someone with the exact same skill set and value as Kyle Kendrick. The Pawtucket rotation is, in theory, full entering 2018 with Beeks/Velazquez/Haley/Elias/Owens, but I wouldn't mind seeing them add one or two more guys to compete for spots, potentially pushing one or two guys at the back end to the bullpen. We also thought the Pawtucket rotation would be full last year too, but then look how many starts Walden and Olmos got.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 11, 2018 14:34:04 GMT -5
I gotta say that seeing him hit 97 last night was very exciting. I don't know if he has topped out there before, but that opens up a lot of possibilities for a TOR starter. Can he ever get the command needed for that? Can he be more efficient in his pitch count? Or will he just remain a #4-5 starter ?
I see an opening for an ambitious change in his ceiling
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 12, 2018 23:51:17 GMT -5
I gotta say that seeing him hit 97 last night was very exciting. I don't know if he has topped out there before, but that opens up a lot of possibilities for a TOR starter. Can he ever get the command needed for that? Can he be more efficient in his pitch count? Or will he just remain a #4-5 starter ? I see an opening for an ambitious change in his ceiling He was a solid-average #2 his rookie year, over 21 starts, ranking 29th in MLB in bWAR/ GS. Since then, the pitch-tipping and especially the injuries have reduced his career numbers to a #3.
Admittedly, over the three seasons since the great rookie year the results have been very strong #4, and I think that drives the current perception of him. But that's cherry-picking the seasons; he's a #3 over the first two years, he was a #3 last year and has been a #3 so far this year. Nor is it fair to him to eliminate the rookie season or ignore the fact that his starts since then include some games that have no predictive value because he was pitching hurt or (a few times) tipping his pitches. And without ignoring them, you can't explain the drop in his overall numbers despite an actual improvement in stuff, most notably the addition of an excellent cutter.
I still don't think he can be an ace without a pitch that breaks more sharply away to his glove side than the cutter, which is to say, without either a slider or a curve. But he has always had #2 stuff and #2 upside, and has pitched like that for significant stretches. Settling into that role would be huge for the team, and this last start was obviously a good sign in that regard.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 13, 2018 19:19:07 GMT -5
He wouldn't be the first guy to really find his groove at 25 and he did just have a bum knee fixed, hopefully. They say he has nasty stuff so I will be waiting to see if that all translates. If he is a consistent #2 that is a boon for the Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on May 13, 2018 19:23:51 GMT -5
I remember ERod hitting 97-98 in the first few starts of his career back in 2015. He looked so unhittable until the pitch tipping that kept coming back. This last start reminded me of how dominant he was then.
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Post by telson13 on May 14, 2018 0:13:31 GMT -5
Yeah, I wonder how much of his (very slightly) diminished velocity this year has been offseason conditioning/late start, given his knee issues. One thing that stands out is that his K rate is way up, 1.5 per 9. But his walks are also up a bit, and he’s been homer-prone. I agree with Eric that, given his arm angle, he really needs something bendier to bury vs RHers, but I’m optimistic. The cutter’s been a nice addition and I can only hope that his command/control issues are related to maybe not having great feel yet, or maybe feeling a little unsure about his mechanics with the repaired knee. His SwStr rate is up to 12.7%, so his stuff is pretty damn good. Batters are swinging at career rates, both in and out of the zone, but his O-contact is down pretty significantly, so it seems like he’s fooling guys a bit more. The real problem is that his zone% is down under 40, and his first strike % is down 5% (55% is *not* good). He’s pitching from behind too much, and going too deep in counts, i think, because of it. That’s also probably lending itself to too many get-me-over cookies. But overall I think there are some good signs, and he certainly has the stuff, should his feel and execution improve (I think they will as the year goes on), to step up to #2 or even 1a-quality.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 14, 2018 9:32:47 GMT -5
Yeah, I wonder how much of his (very slightly) diminished velocity this year has been offseason conditioning/late start, given his knee issues. One thing that stands out is that his K rate is way up, 1.5 per 9. But his walks are also up a bit, and he’s been homer-prone. I agree with Eric that, given his arm angle, he really needs something bendier to bury vs RHers, but I’m optimistic. The cutter’s been a nice addition and I can only hope that his command/control issues are related to maybe not having great feel yet, or maybe feeling a little unsure about his mechanics with the repaired knee. His SwStr rate is up to 12.7%, so his stuff is pretty damn good. Batters are swinging at career rates, both in and out of the zone, but his O-contact is down pretty significantly, so it seems like he’s fooling guys a bit more. The real problem is that his zone% is down under 40, and his first strike % is down 5% (55% is *not* good). He’s pitching from behind too much, and going too deep in counts, i think, because of it. That’s also probably lending itself to too many get-me-over cookies. But overall I think there are some good signs, and he certainly has the stuff, should his feel and execution improve (I think they will as the year goes on), to step up to #2 or even 1a-quality. I was forgetting that he does throw a slider, but it breaks almost straight down (only 0.2 inches the other way last year). There were 17 regular SP last year who didn't throw a curve. E-Rod ranked 13th in slider percentage, tied for 12th in slider break relative to FB, and 14th in absolute break. Kevin Gausman's slider broke straight down, and Sean Manaea's actually broke 0.7" to his arm side. (Ariel Mriranda's slider, which he barely threw, broke 2.4" to arm side.)
The guy whose slider really resembles E-Rod's is Johnny Cueto, so it's possible to be a 1A without a pitch that breaks to glove side. Name SL% Rel Abs Corey Kluber .271 11.2 7.9 CC Sabathia .314 11.5 6.1 Dallas Keuchel .188 7.3 6.1 Chris Sale .329 15.8 5.5 Luis Severino .351 8.7 4.2 Ervin Santana .366 6.2 3.1 Ricky Nolasco .275 6.9 2.5 Chris Archer .445 5.4 2.4 Kyle Freeland .043 7.6 2.0 Patrick Corbin .376 7.8 1.8 Bartolo Colon .072 6.3 1.6 Jose Urena .242 9.1 0.7 Johnny Cueto .293 6.4 0.6 Edua. Rodriguez .167 6.4 0.2 Kevin Gausman .149 8.1 0.0 Sean Manaea .174 9.2 -0.7 Ariel Miranda .049 5.8 -2.4 Sale's relative break is ridiculous. But you knew that.
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Post by telson13 on May 14, 2018 13:48:12 GMT -5
Yeah, I wonder how much of his (very slightly) diminished velocity this year has been offseason conditioning/late start, given his knee issues. One thing that stands out is that his K rate is way up, 1.5 per 9. But his walks are also up a bit, and he’s been homer-prone. I agree with Eric that, given his arm angle, he really needs something bendier to bury vs RHers, but I’m optimistic. The cutter’s been a nice addition and I can only hope that his command/control issues are related to maybe not having great feel yet, or maybe feeling a little unsure about his mechanics with the repaired knee. His SwStr rate is up to 12.7%, so his stuff is pretty damn good. Batters are swinging at career rates, both in and out of the zone, but his O-contact is down pretty significantly, so it seems like he’s fooling guys a bit more. The real problem is that his zone% is down under 40, and his first strike % is down 5% (55% is *not* good). He’s pitching from behind too much, and going too deep in counts, i think, because of it. That’s also probably lending itself to too many get-me-over cookies. But overall I think there are some good signs, and he certainly has the stuff, should his feel and execution improve (I think they will as the year goes on), to step up to #2 or even 1a-quality. I was forgetting that he does throw a slider, but it breaks almost straight down (only 0.2 inches the other way last year). There were 17 regular SP last year who didn't throw a curve. E-Rod ranked 13th in slider percentage, tied for 12th in slider break relative to FB, and 14th in absolute break. Kevin Gausman's slider broke straight down, and Sean Manaea's actually broke 0.7" to his arm side. (Ariel Mriranda's slider, which he barely threw, broke 2.4" to arm side.)
The guy whose slider really resembles E-Rod's is Johnny Cueto, so it's possible to be a 1A without a pitch that breaks to glove side. Name SL% Rel Abs Corey Kluber .271 11.2 7.9 CC Sabathia .314 11.5 6.1 Dallas Keuchel .188 7.3 6.1 Chris Sale .329 15.8 5.5 Luis Severino .351 8.7 4.2 Ervin Santana .366 6.2 3.1 Ricky Nolasco .275 6.9 2.5 Chris Archer .445 5.4 2.4 Kyle Freeland .043 7.6 2.0 Patrick Corbin .376 7.8 1.8 Bartolo Colon .072 6.3 1.6 Jose Urena .242 9.1 0.7 Johnny Cueto .293 6.4 0.6 Edua. Rodriguez .167 6.4 0.2 Kevin Gausman .149 8.1 0.0 Sean Manaea .174 9.2 -0.7 Ariel Miranda .049 5.8 -2.4 Sale's relative break is ridiculous. But you knew that.
My hope is that, with a full healthy season, he can maybe start to Hill/Corbin/McCullers his slider and maybe use some velocity changes to change the shape and/or even break (though that would prob require minor grip modifications and/or different arm angles). His Sl and CH really both seem to move fairly similarly, basically all vertical drop. I don’t recall much fade to the CH though that’s memory and mine is imperfect. Hell, I say go for the trifecta and add a splitter. Three late drop only pitches with different spin? Velazquez has a nice one, he could teach Rodriguez.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 25, 2018 18:46:01 GMT -5
Here’s Drew Pomeranz (consider his ‘16-‘17 seasons, ages 27-28, typically a pitcher’s peak): www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=PHere’s Eduardo Rodriguez, just turned 25 (and historically, on the verge of entering his prime, from 26-29): www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13164&position=PTheir seasons look remarkably similar. In K rate, although Rodriguez is clearly superior, their SwStr rates are similar with Rodriguez having just a slight edge. In walk rate, again Rodriguez is superior although not remarkably so. Their WHIPs, BAA, BABIPs (Pom had some luck in ‘16), and batted ball profiles/distribution are roughly equivalent. Pomeranz’s O/Z-swing % s are roughly 30/65, with contact rates low-60s/mid-80s. His zone% and contact % over those two years were 44% and 75-77%. Rodriguez O/Z swing %s are roughly 32/70, so batters are swinging a little more often both in and out of the zone (and he has a higher swing rate overall). Contact rates for Rodriguez are almost identical, low-60s/mid-80s. Rodriguez is more consistent with first strikes, but his zone% is lower (41-42%), with basically an identical overall contact rate. That suggests the fairly small SwStr advantage is simply related to getting more swings overall. Quality/distribution are similar but not identical. Re:distribution, Rodriguez has gone 35/38/27% to 39/37/24%, and there’s a slight trend to weaker contact, from (Soft/Med/Hard) 19/51/31 to 20/55/26. I’m not sure how “real” those changes are, they’re not disimular from his past results. His GB frequency has wobbled just below 40%, but his IFFB rate (unfortunately) is dropping. Pomeranz’s distribution/quality really aren’t much different, although Rodriguez does appear to limit hard contact better, but gives up fewer IFFB and slightly less GB. Perhaps the biggest issue for both (and the one where I feel Rodriguez has the best, and most probable, chance to improve) is efficiency. He looks on pace for about 170 IP, as he’s averaging 5.5 per start, basically exactly what Pomeranz did at 3-4 years older, in his prime. I actually thought of writing this as I was looking at Trevor Bauer’s career, seeing his incremental improvements in command, changes in repertoire, and improved velocity. I can see a similar path for Rodriguez, although it’s with the caveat that Bauer is “elite” in terms of his cerebral and intense approach to experimentation and modification. All of this is to say that Rodriguez, now that’s he’s healthy (and I’m optimistic he’ll stay that way, given the fact that his issues were lower-body and highly amenable to surgical intervention), is looking like a present 2/2a (historical Sonny Gray/Rick Porcello/Drew Pomeranz; a 3-WAR pitcher, possibly 3.5-4). Looking forward, especially when recognizing that Rodriguez has had youth and chronic injury working against him, I don’t think it’s hard to see that he could very well be on the verge of fulfilling his developmental “ceiling,” and becoming not just a TOR starter, but a legitimate ace, or at the least a first-division 1a. It’s entirely unfair to use such players as “expectations,” but I bring them up in terms of perspective when assessing TRUE front-line pitcher potential and development. Pedro had three years (21-24) of 2/2a performance (with similar total innings, limited by use as a reliever and then by strike rather than injury) before putting up 5 WAR season at 25, followed by a stretch of incredible dominance. Max Scherzer was a 2/2a for three years from 25-27 before his K rate jumped (and walk rate dropped...both quite similar to Rodriguez, in fact) prior to putting up 4+ WAR at 28, and then turning into a perennial Cy Young contender with multiple wins. I’ve mentioned Bauer, who had a more extended stretch, going from 4 to 2a, over the ages of 23-26, and now looks at 27 to be entering the “elite” class. Gerrit Cole was a 2a/3 at 23-24, had a breakout at 25, followed by regression back to a 3, and now looks (like Bauer) to have established a new level, at age 27. Justin Verlander was always a workhorse, but he likewise was a 2/2a for three years before an age 27 breakout. I think it’s easy to dismiss Rodriguez for all of his struggles, and (totally unreasonable but a fact of life) the fact that he didn’t *immediately* become what we all hoped. But other than Clayton Kershaw, who has just one #3 quality season at the ripe age of 20, those instant successes are essentially unheard of. Idk, maybe Severino joins that group with his line year of struggling. But I’m **extremely** excited about Rodriguez. He made MLB after *just* turning 22, which is very young. He pitched quite well before running into some tipping/injury problems. Now the magical three years in, his K rate has steadily climbed, his walk rate dropped, and his consistency, though not “good,” has improved. I really think he’s just a few tweaks, and maybe a season or less, removed from dominance. He’s somebody I think should be right up near the top of the list of extension candidates.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 26, 2018 9:31:37 GMT -5
I tip my cap to all that analysis .... and I'm glad it points to improvement, of course.
My concern about E-Rod is that when he misses, it's badly. It's an easy take for the batter and contributes greatly to his runaway pitch counts.
Arm slot, release point issues?
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Post by patford on Jun 26, 2018 11:39:31 GMT -5
Someone needs to sit Rodriguez down and tell him to throw strikes. Tell him to forget about getting hit and throw the ball over the middle of the plate if that is what it takes. It isn't like he is wild and throws the ball over the place with no apparent plan. He just seems top want to live on the black and he's either just missing or not getting the calls. When that happens a pitcher becomes far less likely to get the benefit of the doubt on anything close. The same is true of Sale. And Sale's last two starts are indicative of how pounding the zone is the way to go. It puts a lot of pressure on the hitter when they know that every pitch is going to be a strike of borderline and a pitcher who throws tons of strikes is not going to see the umpire reward hitters for standing there with the bat on their shoulder.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 26, 2018 11:57:15 GMT -5
Someone needs to sit Rodriguez down and tell him to throw strikes. Tell him to forget about getting hit and throw the ball over the middle of the plate if that is what it takes. It isn't like he is wild and throws the ball over the place with no apparent plan. He just seems top want to live on the black and he's either just missing or not getting the calls. When that happens a pitcher becomes far less likely to get the benefit of the doubt on anything close. The same is true of Sale. And Sale's last two starts are indicative of how pounding the zone is the way to go. It puts a lot of pressure on the hitter when they know that every pitch is going to be a strike of borderline and a pitcher who throws tons of strikes is not going to see the umpire reward hitters for standing there with the bat on their shoulder.
You'll love that plan until the home runs start flying out of the park. That's literally the plan for pitchers in the low minors.
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Post by jbuttah on Jun 26, 2018 12:03:37 GMT -5
Someone needs to sit Rodriguez down and tell him to throw strikes. Tell him to forget about getting hit and throw the ball over the middle of the plate if that is what it takes. It isn't like he is wild and throws the ball over the place with no apparent plan. He just seems top want to live on the black and he's either just missing or not getting the calls. When that happens a pitcher becomes far less likely to get the benefit of the doubt on anything close. The same is true of Sale. And Sale's last two starts are indicative of how pounding the zone is the way to go. It puts a lot of pressure on the hitter when they know that every pitch is going to be a strike of borderline and a pitcher who throws tons of strikes is not going to see the umpire reward hitters for standing there with the bat on their shoulder.
You'll love that plan until the home runs start flying out of the park. That's literally the plan for pitchers in the low minors. Well, the question then becomes how good is his stuff. From what I've seen this year, his stuff is plenty good to pitch more within the zone than trying to live on the black.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 26, 2018 12:06:10 GMT -5
I'm more encouraged that Eduardo has made it through halfway into June and he's healthy. Eduardo is what he is. A pretty good mid rotation type. I don't think he's a top of the rotation starter or ever will be, but he has plenty of value with what he is now. Just stay healthy Eduardo.
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