The Fringe Five: Red Sox edition

Love it. I'll toss something in here when I get a second. Maybe we can make a podcast segment out of it.

A few of mine, with a tilt towards upper-minors guys who could still be something:

Jose Vinicio (unranked): Just turned 23 and is still impossibly small, but he's holding his own at AAA. Utility infielder ceiling, but he makes good enough contact to be passable despite the nonexistent power/patience, and above-average SS defense (plus enough arm strength to dabble at 3B/RF) always giveshim a chance.

Noe Ramirez (43): Gave up a lot of runs in the majors, but if you look deeper at his granular plate discipline numbers, in his 24 major league innings, has shown an above-average swinging strike rate (12.3%; 10% is league-avg) while showing an above-average first-strike percentage (64.6%; 60.3% league-avg) and zone percentage (49.8%; 48.1% league-avg), which makes you think that the elevated walk rate is a little illusory. Back in Pawtucket, he's maintained good strikeout, walk, and ground ball numbers. Doesn't have great stuff or upside, but he's always excelled versus RHH, and he could be at least a Hembree-esque matchup type in the early innings.

Simon Mercedes (unranked): I still believe! Has gone totally off the rails since last spring's overreaction, but still gets tons of ground balls (63%+ this year), and presumably, some semblance of the stuff is still there. If he can fix his delivery and throw strikes, still has a pretty high upside as a bullpen arm. Would be curious to see if any of the staff have seen him lately.

Austin Maddox (unranked): He's already 25, but he missed a lot of time the last two years due to off-field stuff, so there's still upside there. Striking a lot of guys out and should be up at Pawtucket for good sometime this year.

Jantzen Witte (unranked): Has always been old for his level, but has always hit-- until this year, but his walk/strikeout numbers are still good, and the decline is mostly due to BABIP. There's not really any scouting info on him, but it looks like he's got contact and patience, and the offensive bar is not very high at 3B (assuming he's serviceable defensively there).

I enjoyed this thread and meant to contribute a while back. Better late than never:

Pedro Castellanos - DSL (unranked): Lets a play a quick game of “guess that player”:

Player A, DSL Age: 17, 239 AB, .314 BA, .362 BABIP, 10.7 BB%, 13.2 K%, .109 IsoP (7 2B, 5 3B, 3HR)

Player B, DSL Age: 18, 233 AB, .326 BA, .353 BABIP, 7.7 BB%, 8.8 K%, .167 IsoP (22 2B, 4 3B, 3HR)

Player C, DSL Age: 17, 104 AB, .337 BA, .395 BABIP, 16.4 BB%, 15.6 K%, .202 IsoP (6 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR)

Do you know which player is Castellanos? He is Player B. Player A is Xander Bogaerts and Player C is Rafael Devers. Am I trying to claim that Castellanos is either Bogaerts or Devers? Of course not. However, statistically he doesn’t look much worse than a couple of studs in our system did at the same level. That said, Castellanos is a year older than either of those guys were in the DSL, but its not like this is a repeat year for Castellanos. Further, Castellanos walks less than either of the other two, but he also strikes out less. Compared to Bogey in a nearly identical number of DSL at-bats, Castellanos has about the same number of triples and HR, but more than 3x the number of doubles. Once again, I realize I sound like I’m making the case for Castellanos as a top 5 prospect in our system. I’m not, that would be ludicrous. I do pay attention to very impressive stats though, and he has my attention as the most impressive in the DSL currently.

Lorenzo Cedrola – GCL (58): Signed out of Venezuela for only $35,000, Cedrola enjoyed a great DSL debut season in 2015 as a 17-year-old. In 265 AB, he hit .321 with a 7.4 BB%, 10.6 K%, modest power (.094 IsoP, *7 triples), and 27 SB (79.4% success). He has made the jump to the GCL this year and has performed similarly: 181 AB, hitting .293 with a 5.4 BB%, 10.8 K%, .099 IsoP, 7 SB (but only 63.6% success). Perhaps more importantly, scouts praise Cedrola for his speed and defensive abilities, while noting surprising arm strength despite his slender frame. As a player with plus speed, ability to play strong defense potentially across the OF, and bat-to-ball skills with a low K-rate, Cedrola could have the makings of a 4th OF or even an everyday player on a 2nd division team. Moving forward, I’ll be looking at his ability to improve on his SB totals and success rate, and whether he can achieve an IsoP above .100 as he matures.

Ben Taylor - POR (45): Taylor might have the biggest name on my list as a 7th round draft pick in 2015 (albeit a senior sign). I think most of us are pretty aware that he has had a nice year statistically. Although the SP current scouting report on him is modest (maybe plus fastball, not much praise for secondaries), his stats this year have taken off in relief so I wonder if a current scouting report might look better. Related, there is a nugget in his SP report that his fastball has been up to 97 this year, but the rest of the report seems to be based on looks from last year. Statistically, after a solid year in Greenville last in 2015 (1.29 WHIP, 19.3 K%, 7.8 BB%), his numbers have been borderline dominant in relief moving across Salem (1.00 WHIP, 31.3 K%, 5.6 BB%) and Portland (1.09 WHIP, 32.5 K%, 8.5 BB%). I’ll definitely have my eye on him in Pawtucket next year as guy who could reach the Boston bullpen at some point.

Nick Duron - Currently on the DL (unranked): This is a real long shot. Really, I’m only listing Duron because I had noticed his name as a player to watch by Alex Speier in Baseball America’s prospect handbook. Speier in the past has been first or essentially on par with this site in identifying prospect breakouts given his proximity to the club itself, so his mention of Duron perked my ears. Duron was our 31st round selection in the 2015 draft and had a solid showing in the GCL at the age of 19: 26.1 inn, 20 hits, 5 ER (1.71 ERA), 5 BB, 28 Ks, 0.95 WHIP. In the prospect handbook, Speier had described Duron as having the makings of an intriguing 3-pitch mix. That said, he has yet to appear this year, and is listed as being on the 60 Day DL.

Oddanier Mosqueda - DSL (unranked): I’m essentially scouting the DSL stats here and looking for the most impressive stats among pitchers (much like I what did for Castellanos among the hitters). When doing so for pitchers, I tend to take K-rate and age into account when scouting the stats among this level. You can find a number of DSL pitchers with ERA and WHIP success but who are older for the level and/or with modest K-rates. Mosqueda sticks out to me. He is only 17 years old, and is a LHP from Venezuela. In 40.0 innings on the dot this year, opponents have only hit a paltry .191, while he has a racked up a K-rate of 30.1% (highest among pitchers on the DSL1 roster despite being one of the youngest). Mosqueda’s BB% of 11.7% could stand to improve, but he seems to be one of the few young pitchers with impressive stats among the DSL rosters. I admittedly haven’t a clue how he scouts.

I really enjoyed doing some digging in the depths of our farm system last year to put together a list for this thread, so I decided to do it again. In the era of TLDR (Too Long, Didn't Read), I apologize in advance for the length of this post. Anyways:

Jhonathan Diaz - LHP (Unranked): Signed as an IFA back in the 2013-2014 period for $600,000, Diaz was our third most lucrative signing that year behind Devers and Enmanual De Jesus. Since signing, Diaz has had success both in the DSL (2014) and the GCL (2016) while missing the 2015 season with a knee injury. Statistically, Diaz has had solid K-rates of 21.0% and 23.1%, and BB-rates of 6.2% and 7.3% in the DSL and GCL, respectively. He hasn’t been hit particularly hard either yielding WHIPs of 0.93 and 1.17 in each league. Now, at 20 years of age, Diaz has been promoted to Greenville (bypassing Lowell) where he made a solid debut last week. My interest in Diaz is based on largely on his statistical success thus far and his scouting report on MLB.com where he was/is ranked #26. This scouting report makes note of increased velocity since joining the system on his fastball (currently 88-93 mph) that features sink and run, a changeup that shows signs of becoming a plus pitch, feel for spinning a curveball, his athleticism, and a relatively effortless delivery that he repeats well. I should note, some of this scouting report contrasts what we have here at SP, specifically what are described as rough mechanics and lack of plane on his fastball due to his height (6’0’’). That said, in 60 innings last year, Diaz had a well above-average groundball rate of 57.1%.

My take: With a chance for three average pitches from the left side, with the changeup potentially being plus, Diaz seems to have a ceiling as a backend starter. If the fastball can sit toward the higher end of his current range (say 90-92) while generating groundballs, I think we have a true prospect here, one who could soon deserve a spot in the top 30.

Trenton Kemp - OF (Unranked in May, #44 in June, 2017): I debated on including Kemp since he seems to have our attention, and his own thread where I wrote a little about him. In short, Kemp’s athleticism and tools caught the attention of scouts heading into the 2014 draft and he was ranked as high as #111 by MLB. Despite his tools, he also seemed very raw as a baseball player which may have contributed to his ranking of #398 by Perfect Game, and being unranked in BA’s top 500. Now, at age 21, Kemp may just be finding his way in Salem during the year in which he would be a draft eligible junior had he chosen to attend Fresno State. Kemp’s rawness was on full display last year in Greenville evidenced by a 35.2% K-rate, but his power also started to show up in-game with 13 homers in 349 plate appearances (IsoP of .203). Now, after 97 PA in Salem, Kemp has managed to reduce his strikeouts (25.8%) while maintaining power (IsoP of .227). He doesn’t steal a ton of bases but scouting reports make note of his straight-line speed.

My take: Lets keep an eye on the contact/K-rates. If he can keep it between 20-25% then his power/speed combo intrigues me and gives him 2nd division starter potential. I’d bet on that rate settling between 25-30% however making him more likely to be a bench OF or an up-and-down guy. Still, that puts him in the same tier as Tyler Hill, Danny Mars, Kyri Washington, and Tate Matheny in my book.

Hildemaro Requena - RHP (#56 in May, #52 in June, 2017): My interest is purely statistical here. Requena signed as an IFA for $50,000 in the 2013-2014 signing period. He made a brief and poor debut in the DSL debut in 2014 only to come back in 2015 as a starter with a WHIP of 1.04 in 52.2 innings. That was good enough to earn a trip to the GCL last year where he started once again, and actually lowered his WHIP to 0.97 in a 65-inning sample. More impressive, when jumping from the DSL to the GCL, Requena increased his K-rate from 16.0% to 20.3%, while decreasing his BB-rate from 5.0% to a miniscule 2.3% (that’s 52Ks to only 6BB in the GCL!). Also of note in the GCL, his solid K-rate and elite BB-rate were accompanied by a groundball rate of 55.4%. This year Requena has been moved to the bullpen in Greenville, and in 29 innings, has seen his K-rate bump up to 27.8% while maintaining an above average walk rate of 6.1%. Furthermore, batters are only hitting .192 against Requena this year. We don’t know much from a scouting perspective although we have this here internally: “Fastball sits 88-90 mph. Best secondary is a changeup 82-83 mph with some fade. Also will show a curveball in the mid-70s.” That said, I don’t know how old that report is and I doubt Requena is a high priority to scout and keep his profile updated. I wonder if his fastball has ticked up in relief this year.

My take: As a 19 year old in Low-A with success out of the bullpen, if his stuff improves over the next year or two, his nice peripherals suggest potential as a middle reliever at the highest level. Given that he’s listed at 6’2”, 170, “with some projection in his lower half,” it’s not unreasonable to think that he could add some velo and become pretty interesting.

Kervin Suarez – UTIL (Unranked): A young wildcard type here. Suarez signed as an IFA for $100,000 in the recent 2015-2016 signing period. Whereas Yeison Coca has a seemingly similar profile and has received some love (currently ranked #38 here and #25 in BA’s prospect offseason handbook), Suarez has received considerably less attention. That’s understandable though, as he had a solid, yet unspectacular debut in the DSL last year with a .274/.345/.351 line. Nothing jumps out at you, yet he wasn’t overmatched by any means. However, Suarez caught my attention in this year’s Fangraphs prospects report, as Eric Longenhagen noted that Suarez “has solid feel to hit, is exceptionally twitchy but lacks physical projection and might fit better in center field than he does on the dirt.” He then oddly contradicts himself a couple sentences later by saying that he thinks there could be more future power noting that he looked physically projectable. Perhaps the most interesting tidbit was that he made good contact in the DSL as a switch-hitter despite the fact that he only began switch-hitting that year.

My take: Like I said, a true wildcard, so there is a silly range of outcomes. That said, I am intrigued by the reports of his athleticism, surprising contact skills despite being new to switch-hitting, and an invitation stateside to the 2016 Fall Instructs after 1 year in the DSL. We know too little in my opinion to make any projections regarding future value, but he is an interesting follow to me in shortseason ball alongside Coca and Pedro Castellanos (see above in thread).

Bryan Hudson - OF (Unranked): Let me begin by immediately making a statement that might cause many of you to stop reading here: I don’t think Bryan Hudson has even a FV 50 ceiling, and quite honestly, is unlikely to be even a bench OF. Why am I writing about him at all? Well, there is an elite aspect to his game (statistically speaking) and at least one other aspect to his game that might be above average. Let’s discuss. Without looking, can you reasonably guess Hudson’s OBP over his minor league career? If you’re like me, you haven’t paid attention to him at all, so you might guess something around league average. Maybe .320? Nah it’s higher. Oh cool, maybe .340? No keep going. Really? Is it above average, like .360? .380? There you go! .389 to be exact! In fact, since 2015, its .405! Wow. He was also a HS pick so its not like he’s been particularly old for any level although he is repeating Salem this year at the age of 22. So how does he achieve this? He walks a ton. At this point in the season, he has an identical walk rate to last year (18.8%). On top of his on-base skills, he has some speed (described here as plus) and has accumulated 73 SB in his career (about 35 per 500 PA), with a 78.5% success rate. However, that’s where the intrigue stops. His IsoP has never cracked .070 in a season with 100 PA, and despite average bat-to-ball skills, he is unlikely to ever develop extra base hit power. Also, despite the plus speed, reports on his OF defense are lukewarm.

My take: Hudson isn’t really a “dude,” but he’s interesting if only because of his absurd ability to take a base. I suppose if his defense ever becomes passable in the majors (able to functionally play all three OF positions), then the combination of his OPB and speed could allow him a bench role, or at least, a cup of coffee. That said, can a slap-hitter really maintain above-average BB rates if/when they meet pitchers with improved control in the upper levels of the minors?  Meh.

Vinicio signed with the White Sox as a minor league free agent during the offseason.

A few thoughts on two fringe five-type prospects, based on looking at the Fangraphs leaderboards this morning:

• Hildemaro Requena - Greenville, 19-year-old right-handed relief pitcher with a 1.89 ERA, 3.08 FIP and 3.29 xFIP in 33.1 IP (in 15 G; he's averaging 2+ IP per appearance). See above for ramireja's excellent analysis of him. Good strikeout (9.18 K/9), walk (2.16 BB/9) and ground ball (51.3%) numbers, and very age-advanced (second-youngest pitcher on the team behind only Groome). As ramireja noted above, previously performed well in the DSL and GCL. Definitely on my watch list. One other thing to note: SoxProspects has him as Rule 5 eligible in December 2017 (this winter). He's not close to MLB-ready, but I wonder whether his Rule 5 proximity leads them to push him faster at all. 
  
  
• Chad De La Guerra - Salem, 24-year-old second baseman, drafted in the 17th round out of Grand Canyon University ($5,000 bonus). Probably just an org guy given his age and lack of pedigree, but 149 wRC+ is fifth in the Carolina League among qualified hitters, and he has an interesting combination of contact (9.5% swinging strike rate is among the 15 lowest in the Carolina League among qualified hitters) and pop (.175 ISO). 

Random other statistical notes on (slightly) higher-profile prospects:

• Trey Ball somehow has the fourth-highest swinging strike rate among qualified Eastern League pitchers (11.5%; Jalen Beeks ranks first at 12.9%). Ball hasn't been able to translate that into strikeouts, though-- his 19.0% strikeout percentage is below-average.
• Jantzen Witte is making a ton of contact (7.3%, top-15 in the International League among qualified hitters) but is still striking out a fair amount (20% K). That suggests to me that he's been too passive and is taking too many pitches. 
• Bryce Brentz is pulling everything (55.2% pull rate, second-highest in the International League among qualified hitters). That's consistent with his profile throughout the minors. If he ever makes it to the majors, he'll hit a lot of ground balls into the shift and likely run a lower-than-usual BABIP.

CDLG is one of the names being tossed around as the new #60, fwiw. I don't think he'll be the guy, but he might be.

Great stuff. I almost put De La Guerra in my fringe five, so I'm happy you wrote about him. The contact and pop combo is definitely interesting. Reminds me a little bit of Asuaje who in 2014, put up wRC+'s of 156 and 157 in Greenville and Salem, respectively. Looks like CDLG has played predominantly at 2B the past two years, and predominantly at SS this year. If he can play those positions (passably) and 3B where he has played a handful of games, there could be some utility/bench potential.

The swinging strike and K-rate discrepancy on Ball is a great find, although I'm not exactly sure what it means. Still though, I do wonder if there is some untapped bullpen potential waiting to happen.

Every year I look over past draftees and signees to find that golden nugget.

One player I'll choose is Kyle Hart. He is a LHP who was a senior sign in the 19th round in 2016 draft out of Indiana.
I couldn't find a detailed scouting report on him which would be really helpful.
His stats pop out to me.
Year Team G IP W L S ERA H R ER HR BB K G/F WHIP AVG OPS
2016 GCL 4 11.2 0 2 0 2.31 12 5 3 0 2 19 1.57 1.20 0.261 0.618
2017 Gre 7 33.0 2 1 0 1.91 28 8 7 0 10 34 2.42 1.15 0.235 0.609

He may not be an elite prospect, but is a guy who may help us in the majors in a few years.

In the age of Robby Scott, just about anyone deserves consideration as a future MLB asset, even if in a limited role. Thanks for posting this. His numbers this year definitely jump off the page. Across levels, he's put up a 36.6% K-rate to a 4.6% BB-rate. Thats ridiculous, although as mentioned, he was definitely old for Salem and his scouting looks make no mention of plus stuff. I don't see any dramatic splits this year (mainly because he's been really good against both RHH and LHH), and I think his numbers deserve monitoring at AA and above. Could he finish the year in AAA? Its certainly possible, and under normal circumstances, if he continues his current production I'd call it likely. That said, theres a bit of a logjam in AAA with guys like Workman, Noe Ramirez, Ben Taylor, Chandler Shepherd, Kyle Martin, Jamie Callahan, Ty Buttrey, and Austin Maddox above him in the pecking order. Lets see if that group gets thinned out by trades (for ML talent or for international signing money), and whether injuries open up a spot for Poyner.

Both Jalen Beeks and Santiago Espinal were featured in Carson Cistulli's Fringe Five this week. Espinal was also listed as a Next Five choice last week.

www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-107/#more-283795

The choice to include Beeks surprised me a bit, just because I think his prospect pedigree is too high to be included as a "fringe" prospect. I know Cistulli's criteria is only that they can't be on the national prospect lists which Beeks is not, but it's still odd to have the #8 prospect be considered fringe. That's perhaps a better indicator of how weak the system currently is. 

Espinal is much more of a classic pick. A tiny bit old for his level (0.5 yrs) with a refined approach, some new found power, and solid defense.