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The Fringe Five: Red Sox edition
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2018 7:02:22 GMT -5
Heres some non-ranked prospects doing well this year. Most are probably just having a good year, but maybe 1 or 2 will get to the majors, most likely the ones already in the upper minors. William Cuevas Jordan Betts Matt Kent Jordan Weems Denyi Reyes Victor Acosta Michael Osinski Cuevas pitched two inninga today against the Nats and, despite the terrors of his 2018 debut, pitched pretty well until he didn't. Seems to have.a future. Was sent down immediately to make room for Thornburg. Yeah I think he may have a future. As the year goes on I think Cuevas, Kent, Weems, and Reyes could have futures.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 4, 2018 9:16:47 GMT -5
Cuevas pitched two inninga today against the Nats and, despite the terrors of his 2018 debut, pitched pretty well until he didn't. Seems to have.a future. Was sent down immediately to make room for Thornburg. Yeah I think he may have a future. As the year goes on I think Cuevas, Kent, Weems, and Reyes could have futures. As far as major leaguers? I think Cuevas will continue his up and down thing. He's the last man in the bullpen when the pen is spent and needs reinforcements. I really don't think the others every play in the majors. If any of the others do it would probably be Kent in a Marcus Walden type of situation, but I don't think it's too likely.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 4, 2018 14:37:41 GMT -5
Sorry for the repost, I adjusted some of the SSS stats below. I'm reviving this thread again to put the spotlight on five "fringe" prospects in our system. I tried to stay out of the Top 60 and did for all but one of the following: Eduard Bazardo (UR) – Under most conditions, we typically ignore guys who spend parts of three seasons in the DSL (2015-2017), especially when that player wasn’t even that young (19) when he debuted there. Now that said, Bazardo (now 22), is pitching in Lowell and is making it hard to ignore his results. Looking back at his three seasons in the DSL, he never struggled there, and was excellent in 2016 (0.90 WHIP, 28.1 K%, 10.5 BB%), before flat out slaying in 2017 across an 18-inning sample size (0.56 WHIP, 36.9 K%, 1.5 BB%). He was then called up to the GCL following that stint and held his own. The Lowell season is young, but he’s having a fantastic start through his first four starts as he leads the New York-Penn League with 31 Ks. Overall, he’s putting up very strong numbers (0.89 WHIP, 36.5 K%, 4.7 BB%) that resemble his previous domination in the DSL. We don’t have much in the way of a scouting report, but one of our own posters, soxin8, saw him in person and noted a fastball sitting 89-92 (touching 94) and a heavily used slider with sharp movement. If his average FB velo is north of 90, that makes him a more interesting prospect to me than the likes of crafty guys who carve the lower levels with a mid 80s fastball and advanced pitchability. He may be a bit of a late bloomer in our system, but his success across the DSL/GCL/Lowell make him a likely candidate to join the Greenville rotation next year. Gilberto Jimenez (UR) – There are several interesting low bonus guys currently having success in the DSL with a few of those guys (Ceddanne Rafaela, Nelfy Abreu, and Angel Maita) recently breaking into the Top 60. I’m going to highlight a guy who is not having the same success statistically, but is still worthy of a follow in my opinion. Gilberto Jimenez is a 5’11’’ centerfielder signed out of the Dominican Republic last August for only $10,000 as part of the recently concluded 2017-2018 international signing class. This Spring, Ben Badler noted his recent advancements and described him as a “good athlete with a limited baseball background” and a “plus runner who projects to stick in center field.” Apparently, the Red Sox are also fond of Jimenez having inserted him into the leadoff role for the DSL Red Sox (1) squad to begin his professional career. The stats don’t necessarily jump off the page through his first ~100 PAs…he got off to a blistering start and has since cooled. In all, he’s carrying a .282/.339/.388 slash line (.728 OPS), with a modest 14.3% K-rate, 7 SB to 3 CS, and even has 6 OF assists on the year so far. For a 17-year-old who is relatively new to the game, that’s a solid start to his debut in my opinion. Aside from our big signings last year (notably Danny Diaz and Antoni Flores), keep an eye on Jimenez as he rises the ranks as a potentially exciting CF prospect. Andre Colon (52) – A personal favorite of our SP staff during Spring Training this year, Colon was our 11th round pick in the 2017 draft out of the Puerto Rican High School ranks. First thing to note, I don’t think it’s completely insignificant that the Red Sox drafted him in the 11th round of last year’s draft for $125,000. They signed multiple guys on Day 3 for $125K bonuses (e.g., Beau Hanna, Garrett Benge, Kutter Crawford, David Durden), yet Colon was their first pick on Day 3 suggesting the Red Sox had liked what they had seen from Colon and made him a priority pick. Colon was absent from pre-draft Top 200/500 prospect lists, although Perfect Game scouting notes suggest decent speed, fluid infield footwork, and solid arm strength. There is little present power to speak of, although he’s not a smaller SS type as his 6’1”, 180 pound frame may offer more power potential down the road. From a performance perspective, he had a successful GCL debut in 2017 with a .422 OBP in 128 PAs, striking out at a relatively modest 17.2% clip. He is now in Lowell, and has yet to log 40 plate appearances, so I’ll remain optimistic despite initial struggles at the level. Overall, with a seemingly solid approach and defensive promise up-the-middle, he’s a guy I’m excited to follow in Lowell this year and hopefully debut in full season ball in 2019. Aaron Perry (UR) – Drafted in the 14th round of the 2017 draft, Perry signed out of West Virginia prep ranks for an overslot bonus of $172,500. Perry suffered a stress fracture in April of 2017 and as a result did not log any innings in our system after signing. To make matters worse, Perry started pitching in extended spring this year, and soon after it was announced that he underwent Tommy John surgery. Given that he has yet to pitch a professional inning and is now up against TJ surgery, he has a tough developmental road ahead of him. That said, among those currently unranked in the Top 60, prior scouting looks suggest that Perry may have some of the most upside if he can come back healthy. Perry is an undersized right-hander, but burst on the scene last year pitching in front of scouts at the World Wood Bat Association Championship (in Jupiter, FL), sitting 93-95mph with his fastball in the first inning and flashing an above average hard slider that has been described as “having the makings of a plus pitch.” I wish I could find the quote now, but I’m pretty sure I remember reading Mike Rikard had described Perry’s stuff as electric. Unfortunately, given the TJ surgery, there are significant hurdles ahead of him, but if he can regain some of the 'electric' stuff he flashed prior to the 2017 draft, he will be a guy to watch, one with interesting high-leverage bullpen upside. Jhon Nunez (UR) – Nunez is an interesting player albeit one that is hard to evaluate statistically. Looking at his stats is tricky as he’s never accumulated more then 250 PAs in a single season and he’s been in our system since 2013. Admittedly, that alone could be a bad sign. That said, I don’t think it’s out of the question that Nunez could find himself as a major league backup C. He has several things going for him. For one, he has decent contact skills and has typically kept his K% under 20% -- 17.7% in AA this year, 16.8% in High-A last year. Those contact skills have resulted in decent batting averages of .270 and .286 in those same respective levels. There’s no pop to speak of (4 career HR), but even so, he’s put up roughly average offense (wRC+s hovering around 100) across the past few seasons. Defensively, he’s very athletic for a catcher and has been described as having an electric arm having thrown out 39.2% of baserunners in Salem last year (51 chances), although that number is down to 28% this year. It’s not a starter package, but he’s the kind of guy who lurks around in the background of the system for years, and then quietly earns a cup of coffee or even a backup catcher role. His athleticism, strong arm, and contact skills present an intriguing package even with a limited ceiling.
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Post by mckeonam on Jul 5, 2018 20:47:57 GMT -5
Austin Rei hasn't necessarily lived up to his draft status, but it seems like his bat is finally coming alive. After a terrible April, Rei has hit .280 with 5 HR's and 19 RBI's in 39 games since May 1st. His cumulative average and overall stats are the best of his career (although not necessarily good). I'm not sure if he qualifies as a fringe guy but it is interesting to see if he can keep this up.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 6, 2018 9:37:15 GMT -5
Austin Rei hasn't necessarily lived up to his draft status, but it seems like his bat is finally coming alive. After a terrible April, Rei has hit .280 with 5 HR's and 19 RBI's in 39 games since May 1st. His cumulative average and overall stats are the best of his career (although not necessarily good). I'm not sure if he qualifies as a fringe guy but it is interesting to see if he can keep this up. I totally agree with you, and seeing as he's no longer in the Top 60, I'd say he's definitely a fringe guy. Like you said, he's been viewed as a disappointment given that we spent a 3rd round pick on him and if you take a quick glance at his stats, you might notice his BAs have always been south of .240. That said, despite those low BAs, he does walk often (11.1%, 10.5%, and 12.9% BB-rates across Low-A, High-A, and AA respectively) which have kept his OBPs north of .330 at those levels. He's not necessarily a 'power hitter' but he does rack up some XBHs (lots of doubles last year) and has kept his ISOs above .100 trending in the right direction over the last three years (.106, .122, .158). Most importantly, and something that gives catchers in particular a chance at an MLB career, he is viewed as a quality defender. In the same article that I linked to Jhon Nunez above, Rei is also discussed by Chad Epperson: They note that he had thrown 38% of potential base stealers prior to the article, although I think he has only thrown out 26% in AA this season. I'd wager that Rei reaches the majors at least for a cup of coffee and has the ceiling of a backup catcher. There's definitely some interesting things going on in his profile that people may not realize....thanks for pointing him out!
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 9, 2018 11:54:51 GMT -5
Cole Sturgeon - Cole was 365/421/579 with 5/5 in stolen bases at AA when he got the call to Pawtucket in May. He can run, field and throw and this year began hitting for power. If he adjusts to AAA next year like he did AA this year, I think he is at least a 4th outfielder. The bad news is he turns 27 in Sept.
Trenton Kemp - ( A personal favorite already mentioned by ramireja) I will always remember the 2017 box scores for the 3-4-5 of Chavis, Ockimey, and Kemp briefly terrorizing the Carolina league before two promotions and a season ending injury. This year, the July 10 Milb headline was "Salem's Dalbec, Kemp bash way to win" as each homered twice. I am hoping to see what Trenton can do with a full year of good health.
Garrett Benge - On July 28, Garrett had a single and 3 walks against Charleston. The box immediately made me think of another former Sox 3rd basemen. While I don't expect Garrett to reach that lofty status, a 450 OBP is worth noting, even if it is currently his only plus tool.
Irvin Villarroel - He caught my attention when I noticed he was pitching this year in the DSL at 16, only turning 17 on July 26th. He's shown decent control walking 15 in 48 innings with 49 k's. He is listed at 6-4 180, giving him a good pitchers frame to possibly add more velocity.
Eduardo Vaughn / Bryan Gonzalez - A 500,000 dollar bonus in the rule 5 draft will usually get you immediate entry into the top 40 on a team's prospect list and you have to play your way off the list. It works the other way around for the July 2 international signs, usually only 16, who have to perform their way on to the list. The scouting for Vaughn said he didn't currently have a stand out tool but I will give the Red Sox the benefit of the doubt believing they see some real potential in these two to offer that kind of bonus.
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Post by soxin8 on Jul 20, 2019 12:42:02 GMT -5
Sorry for the repost, I adjusted some of the SSS stats below. I'm reviving this thread again to put the spotlight on five "fringe" prospects in our system. I tried to stay out of the Top 60 and did for all but one of the following: Eduard Bazardo (UR) – Under most conditions, we typically ignore guys who spend parts of three seasons in the DSL (2015-2017), especially when that player wasn’t even that young (19) when he debuted there. Now that said, Bazardo (now 22), is pitching in Lowell and is making it hard to ignore his results. Looking back at his three seasons in the DSL, he never struggled there, and was excellent in 2016 (0.90 WHIP, 28.1 K%, 10.5 BB%), before flat out slaying in 2017 across an 18-inning sample size (0.56 WHIP, 36.9 K%, 1.5 BB%). He was then called up to the GCL following that stint and held his own. The Lowell season is young, but he’s having a fantastic start through his first four starts as he leads the New York-Penn League with 31 Ks. Overall, he’s putting up very strong numbers (0.89 WHIP, 36.5 K%, 4.7 BB%) that resemble his previous domination in the DSL. We don’t have much in the way of a scouting report, but one of our own posters, soxin8, saw him in person and noted a fastball sitting 89-92 (touching 94) and a heavily used slider with sharp movement. If his average FB velo is north of 90, that makes him a more interesting prospect to me than the likes of crafty guys who carve the lower levels with a mid 80s fastball and advanced pitchability. He may be a bit of a late bloomer in our system, but his success across the DSL/GCL/Lowell make him a likely candidate to join the Greenville rotation next year. Gilberto Jimenez (UR) – There are several interesting low bonus guys currently having success in the DSL with a few of those guys (Ceddanne Rafaela, Nelfy Abreu, and Angel Maita) recently breaking into the Top 60. I’m going to highlight a guy who is not having the same success statistically, but is still worthy of a follow in my opinion. Gilberto Jimenez is a 5’11’’ centerfielder signed out of the Dominican Republic last August for only $10,000 as part of the recently concluded 2017-2018 international signing class. This Spring, Ben Badler noted his recent advancements and described him as a “good athlete with a limited baseball background” and a “plus runner who projects to stick in center field.” Apparently, the Red Sox are also fond of Jimenez having inserted him into the leadoff role for the DSL Red Sox (1) squad to begin his professional career. The stats don’t necessarily jump off the page through his first ~100 PAs…he got off to a blistering start and has since cooled. In all, he’s carrying a .282/.339/.388 slash line (.728 OPS), with a modest 14.3% K-rate, 7 SB to 3 CS, and even has 6 OF assists on the year so far. For a 17-year-old who is relatively new to the game, that’s a solid start to his debut in my opinion. Aside from our big signings last year (notably Danny Diaz and Antoni Flores), keep an eye on Jimenez as he rises the ranks as a potentially exciting CF prospect. Andre Colon (52) – A personal favorite of our SP staff during Spring Training this year, Colon was our 11th round pick in the 2017 draft out of the Puerto Rican High School ranks. First thing to note, I don’t think it’s completely insignificant that the Red Sox drafted him in the 11th round of last year’s draft for $125,000. They signed multiple guys on Day 3 for $125K bonuses (e.g., Beau Hanna, Garrett Benge, Kutter Crawford, David Durden), yet Colon was their first pick on Day 3 suggesting the Red Sox had liked what they had seen from Colon and made him a priority pick. Colon was absent from pre-draft Top 200/500 prospect lists, although Perfect Game scouting notes suggest decent speed, fluid infield footwork, and solid arm strength. There is little present power to speak of, although he’s not a smaller SS type as his 6’1”, 180 pound frame may offer more power potential down the road. From a performance perspective, he had a successful GCL debut in 2017 with a .422 OBP in 128 PAs, striking out at a relatively modest 17.2% clip. He is now in Lowell, and has yet to log 40 plate appearances, so I’ll remain optimistic despite initial struggles at the level. Overall, with a seemingly solid approach and defensive promise up-the-middle, he’s a guy I’m excited to follow in Lowell this year and hopefully debut in full season ball in 2019. Aaron Perry (UR) – Drafted in the 14th round of the 2017 draft, Perry signed out of West Virginia prep ranks for an overslot bonus of $172,500. Perry suffered a stress fracture in April of 2017 and as a result did not log any innings in our system after signing. To make matters worse, Perry started pitching in extended spring this year, and soon after it was announced that he underwent Tommy John surgery. Given that he has yet to pitch a professional inning and is now up against TJ surgery, he has a tough developmental road ahead of him. That said, among those currently unranked in the Top 60, prior scouting looks suggest that Perry may have some of the most upside if he can come back healthy. Perry is an undersized right-hander, but burst on the scene last year pitching in front of scouts at the World Wood Bat Association Championship (in Jupiter, FL), sitting 93-95mph with his fastball in the first inning and flashing an above average hard slider that has been described as “having the makings of a plus pitch.” I wish I could find the quote now, but I’m pretty sure I remember reading Mike Rikard had described Perry’s stuff as electric. Unfortunately, given the TJ surgery, there are significant hurdles ahead of him, but if he can regain some of the 'electric' stuff he flashed prior to the 2017 draft, he will be a guy to watch, one with interesting high-leverage bullpen upside. Jhon Nunez (UR) – Nunez is an interesting player albeit one that is hard to evaluate statistically. Looking at his stats is tricky as he’s never accumulated more then 250 PAs in a single season and he’s been in our system since 2013. Admittedly, that alone could be a bad sign. That said, I don’t think it’s out of the question that Nunez could find himself as a major league backup C. He has several things going for him. For one, he has decent contact skills and has typically kept his K% under 20% -- 17.7% in AA this year, 16.8% in High-A last year. Those contact skills have resulted in decent batting averages of .270 and .286 in those same respective levels. There’s no pop to speak of (4 career HR), but even so, he’s put up roughly average offense (wRC+s hovering around 100) across the past few seasons. Defensively, he’s very athletic for a catcher and has been described as having an electric arm having thrown out 39.2% of baserunners in Salem last year (51 chances), although that number is down to 28% this year. It’s not a starter package, but he’s the kind of guy who lurks around in the background of the system for years, and then quietly earns a cup of coffee or even a backup catcher role. His athleticism, strong arm, and contact skills present an intriguing package even with a limited ceiling. ramireja named four unranked players that are now all in the top 60 including number 8 prospect Jimenez. Quite an accomplishment.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 22, 2019 10:56:05 GMT -5
Cheers soxin8 (who may or may not be my other alias). . I'd like to dig outside of the top 60 again soon as a yearly exercise in exploring the depths of the system. That said, there's a ton of exciting upside in the 40-60 range right now as they're currently ranked.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 26, 2019 18:53:43 GMT -5
1. Joe Davis (UR) – Let’s get this dude a proper nickname stat. We all love some Joe Davis…he’s a big dude and can spin a moustache with style. But there might be even more to love about Joe Davis…he has a history of raking. Given he’s a 1B-only type, he’ll have to rake at every level to have any chance at the majors, but who knows, maybe he’s good enough to get a cup. Here’s what I like about his offensive profile boiled down to two simple stats: High ISOp and low K%. At Houston University, Davis took no time adjusting to the collegiate level putting up a robust .960 OPS his freshman year. Across all four years at Houston, Davis never had an ISOp lower than .150 (peaking at .310 w/18 HR his senior year) and never striking out more than 15% in a single season. He owns the Houston career HR record with a career total of 53. He’s shown a similar offensive profile this year in Lowell slashing .306/.339/.496 with 6 HR and striking out at a 16.5% clip. On top of that, our own SP scouting staff have noted surprising agility at 1B despite his stature giving some hope that he can play 1B and isn’t an AL-only DH option. So he’ll be a fun guy to follow through the system for multiple reasons, one of which being an offensive profile that gives him a chance to hit for power and average into the upper levels of the system. 2. Jorge Rodriguez (UR) – Rodriguez is from Chihuahua, Mexico, was signed as part of the 2017-2018 J2 class, and has pitched this year as an 18-year-old in the GCL (turned 19 on Aug 25) after debuting in the DSL last year. Rodriguez has been drawing considerable attention in the gameday threads and most notably, our resident poster Sarasoxer saw him live and noted good control, a liquid smooth delivery, and a nice biting curve that he could throw for strikes. He is undersized as a sub 6’, so any remaining projection is questionable. He does however pitch in the low 90s already, and I’m guessing there is some degree of pitchability and advancement with secondaries (his CB and CH) to help explain his success in the GCL. At the time of writing this, 56 pitchers have pitched 30 innings or more in the GCL. Of those 56, Rodriguez is the leader in Ks (58), K% (31.7), and xFIP (2.28). Overall, he has a 1.91 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. It’s been a highly successful season as an 18-year-old making his stateside debut continuing a successful recent reach into the Mexican international market (e.g., Hector Velazquez, Esteban Quiroz, Aldo Ramirez). 3. Daniel Bakst (#53) – Okay, I cheated and took one guy in the Top 60. I couldn’t resist going with my favorite pick outside of the first 10 rounds in this year’s draft. Many have heard Bakst’s story by now, but to quickly rehash, Bakst is originally from Brooklyn, New York and was a heavily scouted prep SS ranked as a Top 200 guy by MLB (#186), BA (#182), and PG (#108 among prep players) heading into the 2016 draft. He ended up being drafted in Round 27 by Baltimore but instead attended Stanford where he would go on to have a strong freshman season slashing .311/.369/.439 with only a 14.4% K%. His OPS (.808) was better than the freshman year OPS for a number of this year’s early-round picks including Adley Rutschman (#1 overall), J.J. Bleday (#4 overall), and Bryson Stott (#14 overall) to name a few. With his HS pedigree and first year success, it wouldn’t have been a stretch to say that Bakst was tracking like a 2nd-3rd round pick for this year’s draft. However, things changed quickly. During his sophomore year, Bakst pitched in relief for Stanford with success but saw limited time at the plate and then for unknown reasons, he sat out his junior season. Despite not playing this year at Stanford, we drafted him in Round 28 and he was quickly assigned to the GCL squad. Even though he’s been removed from the game for nearly two years, Bakst hasn’t missed a beat in the GCL. He’s slashing .306/.397/.469 with a 12.9% BB% and a 16.4% K%. He’s not a future SS….he’s seen most of his time in the GCL at 2B, and older scouting reports suggest the tools to play a decent 3B. I could see him earning the Greenville 2B job in 2020 pending Cannon’s assignment, and I think he’s a cerebral player with a nice well-rounded toolset (think multiple 50 tools with maybe a 55 hit tool) who could be a steal in Round 28. 4. Anyelo Gomez (UR) – Here’s a guy acquired from outside of the organization in Anyelo Gomez. We selected Gomez in the minor league portion of last year’s Rule 5 draft. He has spent most of the year coming back from a shoulder surgery and has been rehabbing across the GCL, Lowell, Salem, and is now in Portland. Here’s why you might pay attention to Gomez. He’s dominated in the past and was tracking like a potential impact reliever with the Yankees prior to his time with us. In 2017 across 4 levels, Gomez pitched 70.1(!) innings in relief with a 1.94 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 87 K to only 21 BB. Further, he showed no signs of slowing down as he advanced levels (30.1 K%, 7.7 BB% in AA before very brief cameo in AAA). In 2018 however, he underwent surgery on his shoulder, pitched 7.1 innings and was not protected from the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. That leads us to our Rule 5 selection, and we’d be more than happy to recapture his previous trajectory. Across 23.2 innings (and 4 levels) in our system this year, the good news is that Gomez has a WHIP of 1.01. However, that’s largely off the strength of giving up only 11 hits. Unfortunately, he’s given up 13 walks (+ 5 HBP) and recorded only 15 Ks. So he’s clearly been wild compared to his past seasons, but it’s also fair to give the guy a decent-sized leash to regain his form coming off his surgery. It’s unclear to me if we’re in danger of losing Gomez in the offseason, but if he’s around for 2020, he’s yet another sneaky option as a guy who could contribute to the increasingly competitive Boston bullpen. 5. Eduardo Vaughan (UR) – I wanted to highlight a DSL guy, however I do believe the best three are ranked in the Top 60 (although Bryan Gonzalez cooled off considerably after his hot start). My other personal favorite, Elio Prado, was traded to BAL. That leaves Vaughan as the next best in my opinion. Vaughan was noted by some as the best player out of Panama eligible to sign on July 2, 2018. Further, his tools have been noted as getting louder from those who have seen him since signing. He got off to a rather slow start in the DSL (.222 BA in June), but he was much better down the stretch (> .280 BA for each of July & August). He doesn’t have a standout power tool like Bryan Gonzalez or Albert Feliz, but he does have 2 HR (+11 2Bs) at least showing the current ability to put the ball out of the park, and his lanky 6’3” frame has room to gain added strength for projectable power. Unlike Gonzalez and Feliz though, he has better bat-to-ball skills (17.6 K% compared to their >25 K%s) and has a relatively high ceiling although will need to add power to his profile given that speed won’t be part of his game. A guy to watch at the very least as I anticipate he comes stateside this Fall.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on Aug 28, 2019 5:46:49 GMT -5
1. Yo Elvis. GCL. Guidas surrendered one run in his last 10 games, 26 innings pitched. Toot toot, next stop North Cakalaka. 2. Jorge Rodriquez. GCL. Ok, both these young men are a bit short, but son of bitch, this kid destroyed the GCL. When I was looking at it last week I was like who is this kid leading the league in knockouts? Then when I tried to expand past last 10 games I was unable to because he had only pitched 10 games? Ok. Ok. Also a lefty. Also from Juarez. I never met a young person from Ciudad Juarez that didn't bust their ass to outwork everyone. Never. 3. De Jesus. Salem. Big lefty, eats innings. Certainly not a wow type guy, but has held up for two years at age appropriate full seasons. That don't grow on trees. 4. Padron-Artilles. Lowell. Wasn't familiar with the name even, but my buddy's buddy scouts southern florida for a national league team and had eyes on him in the junior college circuit? Was pissed they passed. Cincinatti Reds, lol. They ain't reading this. 5. Nunez. Portland. I think he'll get a pension from MLB. Athletic catchers don't grow on trees.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on Sept 6, 2019 15:22:39 GMT -5
4. Padron-Artilles. Lowell. Wasn't familiar with the name even, but my buddy's buddy scouts southern florida for a national league team and had eyes on him in the junior college circuit? Was pissed they passed. Cincinatti Reds, lol. They ain't reading this.
Haha, I sent a message last night asking my friend if his friend had seen that last night. My friend of course hadn't but he just messaged me and indeed his bird dog homie sure had. "Oh, man, he replied in all caps! ZUNINO KNEW I'VE LIKED THIS KID SINCE HE WAS IN CUBA. SAID CAN'T TELL HIM MORE THAN 50 THOUSAND. GOD DAMN RED SOX!" It's good to be the king.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 16, 2021 15:00:32 GMT -5
Yearly bump! The system is deeeeep right now making this pretty fun: Tyler Dearden (UR) – It’s been a heck of a season so far for Dearden. Let’s rewind though for a second. Our 29th round pick in 2017 signed for a slightly overslot bonus of $140,000 and proceeded to put up an OPS of over .800 in each of his first two shortseason seasons (GCL-2017, Lowell-2018). That said, a healthy K% and unsustainable BABIPs dampened enthusiasm, and his 2019 in Greenville was a disappointment. Now after the year off, Dearden is raking in High-A and has made several, somewhat drastic improvements to his offensive profile that have me pushing him up my personal rankings. At the time of writing this, Dearden leads or co-leads our minor league system in both walks (48 BBs, 15.3 BB%) and HRs (17 HR, .268 IsoP). His 143 wRC+ ranks 4th among 57 qualified players in High-A East with only older players ranked ahead of him. If you use a minimum of 200 PAs, his wRC+ is 7th of 81 players with Top 100 prospect Brett Baty as the only younger player ahead of him. His K-rate of 26.4% doesn’t seem fantastic on the surface, but 1) it’s actually a tad better than league average (27.1%), 2) it represents an improvement from his previous seasons typically above 30%, and 3) it’s improved as the season has progressed (34.6% in May, 23.6% since June). The bat is going to have to carry him all the way as a LF profile without speed, but his combo of power and patience alongside manageable contact rates is worth monitoring as he progresses to the upper minors. Elmer Rodriguez (UR) – We now have our most recent draftees among the rankings and I’ll highlight one here who didn’t make the top 60 (understandably so as Elmer Rodriguez is all about projection). So why should we be excited? Well because the Red Sox seemingly are excited. After all, they just invested a 4th round pick in Rodriguez without going too much underslot. What do we know about Rodriguez who cites his grandfather as his inspiration to be a ballplayer? For starters, he was one of the youngest draft eligible HS players in the entire draft. We have to take that into account when considering the volatility of existing scouting looks – in other words, these looks are of a 16–17-year-old still undergoing significant development during which little consistency should be expected. Among the good from those reports: success at Perfect Game events, a FB whose velocity has been creeping up into the low 90s, touching 94, with plenty of projection remaining (6’4”, ~165 pounds), a changeup, slider, and curveball in his arsenal with the change drawing some nice scouting takes, and an athletic delivery. Bottom line – the Red Sox know more than we do about this guy, and if they’re excited, then I believe there is general optimism to be had. Given that he seemingly checks a number of boxes that teams looking for when projecting starters (i.e., early 4-pitch mix, athletic delivery, body type, can throw strikes), Rodriguez has the potential to rapidly climb the rankings in the next 12-24 months. Johnfrank Salazar (UR) – Let’s do DSL diving and analyzing of tiny statistical samples in a league where that’s really dangerous! That said, I don’t think it’s completely meaningless either. I’d probably be writing about Ronald Rosario if he hadn’t gotten injured but instead lets focus on Salazar, a $400K signing from the 2019-2020 draft class. The area I typically narrow in on when scouting offensive stats for batters is the intersection between contact rate and batted ball data/power. If a player is checking both of these boxes to varying degrees, I take that as a really positive sign. Through 77 plate appearances, Salazar has a .328/.429/.438 slash line, perhaps most important zooming in on a 5.2% K-rate. It’s not a ton of power early on, but he does have 5 XBHs (4 2Bs, 1 HR) contrasted to those 4 Ks in those 77 PAs. So that catches my attention early on and that he happens to be doing it as a SS adds a cherry on top. Although we’re often limited in scouting takes among these players, we can also supplement our knowledge of Salazar’s stats with a previous report noting his arm strength. I can also say from social media snooping that Salazar has a frame that looks like it could support some solid strength should he take to the gym. I’m not sure what the range or hands look like at SS, but it’s at least comforting to know that the arm may be an asset there or may allow him a move elsewhere (e.g., 3B) should the rest of the defensive actions warrant that. Alvaro Mejias (UR) – I’m going to take a bit of a shot in the dark here. There have been a number of DSL debuts from the 2020-2021 class this year that I’ve been particularly excited about in Miguel Bleis and Enderso Lira. That said, those guys are ranked and I want to dig a tad deeper. One guy with a ton of upside from our most recent signing class is Alvaro Mejias. Mejias has yet to pitch this year, so that raises the possibility of an injury or other issues that could negatively affect his development. That said I won’t read too much into that yet so let’s focus on the positives: His FB velo crept up around the time of signing and has hit 96 already with a curveball and changeup from a 3/4 type delivery. From some limited social media, the guy looks very long and lean with plenty of projection remaining. The potential for monster velocity is there. Can he locate anything? Is there any pitchability? I have no idea, so there’s a really wide range of outcomes here, but the frame and early reports on quality of his stuff have me as intrigued by Mejias as any other DSL arm except for maybe Perales. It’s a shame he has yet to pitch but I’ll be tracking his name and hope he can debut this year or at least be healthy to begin next year. Brandon Walter (41) – Alright I try to stay out of the top 60 for this exercise, but let me cheat and include a guy who just recently went from unranked to #41. If you’re a close follower of the site, you probably know of Walter given his presence in the gameday threads and player of the week voting this year. Why should we be excited about a senior sign in the 26th round of the 2019 Draft who is turning 25 in September having pitched exclusively in Single-A ball? Because his combination of K%, BB%, and GB% is unmatched in the system right now and that’s essentially the trifecta of stats I’m focusing in on without access to Statcast data. In our system (minimum 40 innings pitched), his 36.8 K% is tops and his 5.1 BB% ranks 7th out 30…that gives him the best K% - BB% edging out Bello and Kutter Crawford. On top of that, he started the year in relief in Low-A and is now starting in High-A without any depreciation in how dominant he’s been across those categories despite the shift to the rotation and advancement in level. In fact his xFIP in Low- and High-A are 2.33 and 2.32, respectively. Really putting his statistical profile over the top for me are his GB rates of 65.7% in Low-A followed by 59.7% in High-A, both great marks with the latter ranking 5th out of 134 High-A East pitchers with at least 30 innings. So even though we should take his stats with a grain of salt given his level-to-age ratio, the scouting looks at him to date add some excitement. We’re not talking about an older guy locating salad. Walter pitches from the left side and is reportedly pitching 92-96 from the left side with a changeup as his best secondary pitch, and a slider with increased lateral movement since signing. It’s a little bit of a funky delivery for a starter, but the stuff and command appear unaffected in terms of allowing him to stick as a starter. He should begin next year in Portland’s rotation and success there push him further up the rankings if he begins to look like a potential backend starter or multi-inning reliever.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 16, 2021 16:06:04 GMT -5
So does the rule say a guy can't ever have been on the SP60 or he isn't now?
If the latter, give me all your Kole Cottam stock for pennies on the dollar.
I'm sure he was ranked right after being drafted (an SP60 tradition for the top handful of picks) but for some reason he's fallen out now (not hurt, always behind the plate or DHing, climbing the ladder each year).
Give me a catcher who can rake (AND take ball 4) because the rest of the job can take a few years to perfect even for the best catching prospects. I'd much rather teach a guy to catch than try to teach him to hit.
And give me Cottam ahead of Hernandez (whose .281 OBP and 52/9 K/BB has him ranked 21st! *in the SP60) all day and twice on Sunday, even if the latter was handed the AA job on a platter. Don't care a lick about their 6-month age difference.
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Post by patford on Aug 16, 2021 16:58:32 GMT -5
Yearly bump! The system is deeeeep right now making this pretty fun: Tyler Dearden (UR) – It’s been a heck of a season so far for Dearden. Let’s rewind though for a second. Our 29th round pick in 2017 signed for a slightly overslot bonus of $140,000 and proceeded to put up an OPS of over .800 in each of his first two shortseason seasons (GCL-2017, Lowell-2018). That said, a healthy K% and unsustainable BABIPs dampened enthusiasm, and his 2019 in Greenville was a disappointment. Now after the year off, Dearden is raking in High-A and has made several, somewhat drastic improvements to his offensive profile that have me pushing him up my personal rankings. At the time of writing this, Dearden leads or co-leads our minor league system in both walks (48 BBs, 15.3 BB%) and HRs (17 HR, .268 IsoP). His 143 wRC+ ranks 4th among 57 qualified players in High-A East with only older players ranked ahead of him. If you use a minimum of 200 PAs, his wRC+ is 7th of 81 players with Top 100 prospect Brett Baty as the only younger player ahead of him. His K-rate of 26.4% doesn’t seem fantastic on the surface, but 1) it’s actually a tad better than league average (27.1%), 2) it represents an improvement from his previous seasons typically above 30%, and 3) it’s improved as the season has progressed (34.6% in May, 23.6% since June). The bat is going to have to carry him all the way as a LF profile without speed, but his combo of power and patience alongside manageable contact rates is worth monitoring as he progresses to the upper minors. Elmer Rodriguez (UR) – We now have our most recent draftees among the rankings and I’ll highlight one here who didn’t make the top 60 (understandably so as Elmer Rodriguez is all about projection). So why should we be excited? Well because the Red Sox seemingly are excited. After all, they just invested a 4th round pick in Rodriguez without going too much underslot. What do we know about Rodriguez who cites his grandfather as his inspiration to be a ballplayer? For starters, he was one of the youngest draft eligible HS players in the entire draft. We have to take that into account when considering the volatility of existing scouting looks – in other words, these looks are of a 16–17-year-old still undergoing significant development during which little consistency should be expected. Among the good from those reports: success at Perfect Game events, a FB whose velocity has been creeping up into the low 90s, touching 94, with plenty of projection remaining (6’4”, ~165 pounds), a changeup, slider, and curveball in his arsenal with the change drawing some nice scouting takes, and an athletic delivery. Bottom line – the Red Sox know more than we do about this guy, and if they’re excited, then I believe there is general optimism to be had. Given that he seemingly checks a number of boxes that teams looking for when projecting starters (i.e., early 4-pitch mix, athletic delivery, body type, can throw strikes), Rodriguez has the potential to rapidly climb the rankings in the next 12-24 months. Johnfrank Salazar (UR) – Let’s do DSL diving and analyzing of tiny statistical samples in a league where that’s really dangerous! That said, I don’t think it’s completely meaningless either. I’d probably be writing about Ronald Rosario if he hadn’t gotten injured but instead lets focus on Salazar, a $400K signing from the 2019-2020 draft class. The area I typically narrow in on when scouting offensive stats for batters is the intersection between contact rate and batted ball data/power. If a player is checking both of these boxes to varying degrees, I take that as a really positive sign. Through 77 plate appearances, Salazar has a .328/.429/.438 slash line, perhaps most important zooming in on a 5.2% K-rate. It’s not a ton of power early on, but he does have 5 XBHs (4 2Bs, 1 HR) contrasted to those 4 Ks in those 77 PAs. So that catches my attention early on and that he happens to be doing it as a SS adds a cherry on top. Although we’re often limited in scouting takes among these players, we can also supplement our knowledge of Salazar’s stats with a previous report noting his arm strength. I can also say from social media snooping that Salazar has a frame that looks like it could support some solid strength should he take to the gym. I’m not sure what the range or hands look like at SS, but it’s at least comforting to know that the arm may be an asset there or may allow him a move elsewhere (e.g., 3B) should the rest of the defensive actions warrant that. Alvaro Mejias (UR) – I’m going to take a bit of a shot in the dark here. There have been a number of DSL debuts from the 2020-2021 class this year that I’ve been particularly excited about in Miguel Bleis and Enderso Lira. That said, those guys are ranked and I want to dig a tad deeper. One guy with a ton of upside from our most recent signing class is Alvaro Mejias. Mejias has yet to pitch this year, so that raises the possibility of an injury or other issues that could negatively affect his development. That said I won’t read too much into that yet so let’s focus on the positives: His FB velo crept up around the time of signing and has hit 96 already with a curveball and changeup from a 3/4 type delivery. From some limited social media, the guy looks very long and lean with plenty of projection remaining. The potential for monster velocity is there. Can he locate anything? Is there any pitchability? I have no idea, so there’s a really wide range of outcomes here, but the frame and early reports on quality of his stuff have me as intrigued by Mejias as any other DSL arm except for maybe Perales. It’s a shame he has yet to pitch but I’ll be tracking his name and hope he can debut this year or at least be healthy to begin next year. Brandon Walter (41) – Alright I try to stay out of the top 60 for this exercise, but let me cheat and include a guy who just recently went from unranked to #41. If you’re a close follower of the site, you probably know of Walter given his presence in the gameday threads and player of the week voting this year. Why should we be excited about a senior sign in the 26th round of the 2019 Draft who is turning 25 in September having pitched exclusively in Single-A ball? Because his combination of K%, BB%, and GB% is unmatched in the system right now and that’s essentially the trifecta of stats I’m focusing in on without access to Statcast data. In our system (minimum 40 innings pitched), his 36.8 K% is tops and his 5.1 BB% ranks 7th out 30…that gives him the best K% - BB% edging out Bello and Kutter Crawford. On top of that, he started the year in relief in Low-A and is now starting in High-A without any depreciation in how dominant he’s been across those categories despite the shift to the rotation and advancement in level. In fact his xFIP in Low- and High-A are 2.33 and 2.32, respectively. Really putting his statistical profile over the top for me are his GB rates of 65.7% in Low-A followed by 59.7% in High-A, both great marks with the latter ranking 5th out of 134 High-A East pitchers with at least 30 innings. So even though we should take his stats with a grain of salt given his level-to-age ratio, the scouting looks at him to date add some excitement. We’re not talking about an older guy locating salad. Walter pitches from the left side and is reportedly pitching 92-96 from the left side with a changeup as his best secondary pitch, and a slider with increased lateral movement since signing. It’s a little bit of a funky delivery for a starter, but the stuff and command appear unaffected in terms of allowing him to stick as a starter. He should begin next year in Portland’s rotation and success there push him further up the rankings if he begins to look like a potential backend starter or multi-inning reliever. Thanks for the dive. I love high upside young players. True 90% of them will never pan gold but that is why a system needs a lot of them.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 17, 2021 14:46:44 GMT -5
So does the rule say a guy can't ever have been on the SP60 or he isn't now? If the latter, give me all your Kole Cottam stock for pennies on the dollar. I'm sure he was ranked right after being drafted (an SP60 tradition for the top handful of picks) but for some reason he's fallen out now (not hurt, always behind the plate or DHing, climbing the ladder each year). Give me a catcher who can rake (AND take ball 4) because the rest of the job can take a few years to perfect even for the best catching prospects. I'd much rather teach a guy to catch than try to teach him to hit. And give me Cottam ahead of Hernandez (whose .281 OBP and 52/9 K/BB has him ranked 21st! *in the SP60) all day and twice on Sunday, even if the latter was handed the AA job on a platter. Don't care a lick about their 6-month age difference. No rules, just having fun exploring the depths of the system. I don't want to rain on your Cottam parade, he's a fine pick as someone interesting outside the top 60. That said, I do have to point out 0 walks to 15 Ks (39.5 K%) since his promotion to AA so I think the bat still has some proving (and adjusting) to do before we can have more confidence in his offense.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 17, 2021 21:09:11 GMT -5
So does the rule say a guy can't ever have been on the SP60 or he isn't now? If the latter, give me all your Kole Cottam stock for pennies on the dollar. I'm sure he was ranked right after being drafted (an SP60 tradition for the top handful of picks) but for some reason he's fallen out now (not hurt, always behind the plate or DHing, climbing the ladder each year). Give me a catcher who can rake (AND take ball 4) because the rest of the job can take a few years to perfect even for the best catching prospects. I'd much rather teach a guy to catch than try to teach him to hit. And give me Cottam ahead of Hernandez (whose .281 OBP and 52/9 K/BB has him ranked 21st! *in the SP60) all day and twice on Sunday, even if the latter was handed the AA job on a platter. Don't care a lick about their 6-month age difference. No rules, just having fun exploring the depths of the system. I don't want to rain on your Cottam parade, he's a fine pick as someone interesting outside the top 60. That said, I do have to point out 0 walks to 15 Ks (39.5 K%) since his promotion to AA so I think the bat still has some proving (and adjusting) to do before we can have more confidence in his offense. That'sss an interesssting ssstat. He'sss alssso got a .395 OBP and .543 SSSLG. SSSeemsss ssstrange when paired with that K/BB rate.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 18, 2021 13:04:52 GMT -5
I apologize if I'm missing the intent of your last point. You might have been directly hinting at this but a .500+ BABIP is causing the ssslash line to be a bit misssleading. K% and BB% are going to stabilize much quicker. Consider that since yesterday, his OBP dropped to .357 and his slugging to .487 but the K% stayed up at 38.1% and the BB% at 0%. Again, sorry if that was the entire point of your last post.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 20, 2021 13:16:17 GMT -5
My point was that SSS works both ways. Maybe some stats will stabilize quicker than others but it's not surprising that in his first taste of AA, facing significantly better pitchers, he is losing control of the strike zone. But he's also making hard contact, so in his first dozen or so games, you take the good with the bad.
Looking back at his first taste of high-A ball in 2019 (after a .255/.377/.411 line in low-A with a 78:44 K:BB), Cottam also struggled in 11 games, with 11 Ks and 1 BB. Obviously he had almost two years to think about it but when he got his next shot at high-A this year, he mashed. (It's actually quite interesting that in 2019, he also had a high SLG while struggling with the strike zone in his first chance at the higher level.)
So maybe he won't adjust to AA the way he did to high-A. Maybe he just likes Greenville (which is a really nice town and was where he mashed in both low- and high-A). Maybe he's allergic to lobster. Who knows? Either way, it sounds like you're willing to sell me Cottam stock at a bargain basement rate and I will take ALL OF IT off your hands.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2022 14:57:44 GMT -5
Trying to keep up with this annually...always a fun exercise to do some digging on lesser known players. 1. Alex Hoppe (UR) - This most recent draft class was in line with an organizational draft theme over the past several years: Spend on bats, go value shopping for arms. This year was no different with the four highest bonuses in our class going to prep bats. That said, the Red Sox loaded up on interesting collegiate arms, albeit arms with little pedigree. The guy I want to highlight here is Alex Hoppe, our 6th round pick out of UNC Greensboro. Let’s get one thing out of the way, Hoppe does not have age on his side as he is already 23 and was a senior sign. That said, he was the first Red Sox senior sign of the draft suggesting priority among that demographic. One thing that Hoppe does have is stuff. According to some Trackman data via Tieran Alexander, Hoppe averaged 96.3 MPH on his FB in Trackman games and reached as high as 99.2 MPH. Granted he did that as a reliever, but he was more a long reliever averaging over 40 pitches per game and 10.9 batters/game, so perhaps he can maintain similar stuff if stretched out as a starter. The intrigue of Hoppe’s stuff doesn’t end with velocity. Hoppe also above average ride and plus horizontal movement on his FB to go with a mid 80s slider with great horizontal movement, and a sparingly used changeup with good horizontal movement. Points of developmental appear to be with regard to control and command, particularly with the secondaries, which apparently have a way to go in that regard. Nonetheless, I’m very intrigued by a senior sign with stuff like Hoppe who showed an ability to miss bats and generate poor contact. I hope he gets a chance to start to begin his career, perhaps with a ticket to Greenville given his age and lengthier collegiate career. 2. Chase Meidroth (#52) – I prefer to highlight unranked guys but I’m going to treat myself to a couple of newcomers to the top 60 while staying outside of the top 50. First off is Chase Meidroth, our 4th round pick out of San Diego, and our lone(!) college position player selected in the 2022 draft. Meidroth is interesting in that he was a draft eligible sophomore with only 32 collegiate PAs to his name prior to this year so we basically have just one full season’s worth of data to evaluate not including summer ball. That data however is very promising, if not extreme, especially considering this was his first full collegiate year. Meidroth displays superb approach numbers having walked 40 times to 25 Ks on his way to a .329/.440/.544 slash line. His 9.1% K-rate is supported by a ridiculous 95.2% contact rate in Trackman games according to Tieran Alexander. However, his elite contact rate is coupled with extreme passivity, both in and out of the zone, having swung at 33.7% of all pitches…a rate well below average. A point of development moving forward will be becoming more aggressive with in-zone pitches. Power is something of a question mark with Meidroth, but he showed well primarily in Salem after being drafted putting up an overall line of .316/.438/.539 (look familiar?) in 96 PAs with 4 HR primarily. So in short, I feel really good about the odds of Meidroth continuing to hit and get on base even as he climbs the organizational ladder. The bigger question to me is – what else, if anything, can Meidroth get out of his profile to provide value? I’m not entirely sure. Outside of the approach and bat-to-ball skills, Meidroth doesn’t have an above average tool as far as I can tell. I wonder though if Meidroth can approximate average (or slightly below average) power, baserunning value, and defensive value settling somewhere at 3B, 2B, or even LF. With his bat, he may not need to do much more to eventually find himself reaching the majors in some capacity. Meidroth seems like a decent bet to be among our system leaders in BA and OBP as he climbs the ranks with his ultimate role depending on what else he can do. 3. Lyonell James (UR) – Scanning the DSL and FCL for unranked players led to a number of guys of semi-interest to me, albeit none that really jump unlike some from year’s past. From that bunch, I think one of the most interesting unranked guys is Lyonell James. James signed for $440K (3rd highest bonus) as part of the 2019-2020 international signing class. He made his DSL debut in 2021 at the age of 18 and put up a strong wRC+ of 118. He came stateside this year and performed remarkably similar in the FCL although with an even stronger 150 wRC+ in 120 PAs. The increase in wRC+ was largely driven by an increase in BABIP (.318 to .405) that I’m guessing is largely luck-driven as opposed to a change in batted ball data given what I can see there. Both seasons show evidence of a very strong approach (22BB/23K ratio in DSL, 17BB/17K in FCL) with few Ks (11.3% K-rate in DSL, 14.4% K-rate in FCL), but with limited in-game power (.092 IsoP in DSL, .090 IsoP in FCL). Physically, two things stand out: James is tall (listed at 6’3”) and he is also lanky with room to add significant strength. Will he? I don’t know. Even if he does, it may not necessarily translate to more game power which depends on much more than raw strength. So I’m not necessarily predicting improvements to game power although I do want to note the potential for it given the obvious room he has to add strength to his frame. Still though, if I’m betting on anyone as far as unranked shortseason guys are concerned, it’s the guy with strong approach numbers. He’s not a middle infielder so 3B is his most optimistic defensive home moving forward. If he becomes at 1B (and he may play there out of necessity next year in Salem for a projected team without a true 1B-only type), then obviously, there will be more pressure on the bat to produce with power. We’ll see how it all shakes out but he’s a guy I hope gets priority playing time split between the corner infield positions next year in a crowded Salem lineup. 4. Corey Rosier (UR) – Another guy of interest to me is Corey Rosier who was acquired as part of the Eric Hosmer trade involving Jay Groome. Originally drafted by Seattle in the 12th round of the 2021 draft, Rosier finds his way to the Red Sox system in what is remarkably his third org already. Hopefully that’s not a bad sign. Also, hopefully his 56 wRC+ in 93 PAs with Greenville is also not a bad sign. Okay, now that we got the bad news out of the way, let’s focus on some good. Rosier has performed very well since being drafted and prior to arriving in Greenville. In 141 PAs in A ball after being drafted, Rosier put up a ridiculous 171 wRC+ supported by a beautiful 12.8 BB% to 14.2 K% ratio. Following the 2021 season, Rosier was traded to the Padres and put up a 122 wRC+ supported again by a strong 14.5 BB% to 18.2 K% in 373 PAs. For some reason, his offense cratered once joining our org with his K-rate ballooning to 33.3%. That said, we’re only talking 93 PAs and his BABIP was only .250 across those PAs. I’m going with the bigger sample size here and trusting we have a guy with a really strong approach. In terms of power, he did put up a respectable .195 IsoP in A ball, albeit with few HRs, and this came down to the .100-.150 range this year. So although not a power hitter, Rosier isn’t a slap hitter either and does have some wheels having stolen 53 bags against 8 CS so far in the minors (610 total PAs). So to me, it seems like we have a guy not too dissimilar from an OF version of David Hamilton who is currently ranked #49. There may not be a crazy high ceiling, but there is certainly a path to a major league bench for Rosier. 5. Luis Guerrero (#57) – Our 17th round pick in 2021 also just barely cracked the top 60 as of last month, but I’m going to talk about him here regardless as I think he can continue to climb. Guerrero is a reliever currently, so that certainly limits his ceiling, but I think the potential is there for him to be a good one. Prior to the 2021 draft, Guerrero participated in the MLB Draft League and reached 96.3 MPH on his FB while showing a splitter that produced a 64% whiff-rate in a limited sample. Guerrero made his debut in our system this year pitching across three levels, predominantly in Salem and Greenville, and wowed scouts with his stuff. Ian got to see him in August and reported a FB sitting in the upper 90s touching 100, a splitter flashing plus, and a hard slider at 88-91. His enticing stuff produced strong results too. Across all stops, Guerrero had a K-rate of 35.5% which was tops in our system for pitchers that pitched 30 innings or more. He did that with a palatable 10.2 BB% although there is room for improvement there. Opposing batters put up a meager slash line of .181/.289/.250 against him. He finished the year quite strong after a call-up to High-A and pitched 13IP, 11H, 3ER, 3BB, 19K for Salem. Watch for Guerrero to continue to climb the ladder with potential control/command gains ultimately dictating whether he reaches his potential as an interesting reliever.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 24, 2022 23:48:51 GMT -5
My fringe five for 2023 are (none currently ranked in the SP60):
Jacob Webb/Jonathan Brand - A scouting two-fer at Miami (O.), so they're a two-fer here. Dalton Rogers - Harness that natural late lefty movement and shoot up the charts. Marques Johnson - Athletic starter’s frame with four pitches. Deundre Jones - Underestimate thunder thighs at your peril. Phillip Sikes - You down with OBP? Yeah, you know me.
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