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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2016 23:25:22 GMT -5
His bat, particularly his power, has not stepped forward, so his upside projection has probably been scaled back. On the other hand, he's now drawing rave reviews for his throwing, which was apparently something he focused on in the offseason and was previously considered closer to average (especially strength-wise). His defense in center field is legit, he has good at-bats, and his contact rates are superb. He's probably a Top 20 CF right now at 21 so his downside is basically nil at this point. That "if the power comes!" perfect-world projection seems more of a pipe dream now, but he's very realistically a .300/.360/.425 player in a couple years. So while I agree that his overall value and the median projection are about the same, I think the 25/75 percentile projections for him have narrowed. I get he's young, but he's now in 5th season in minors, lots of development time compared to College players. You really think in a few years he's a better hitter than he currently is in minors? Typically.300 hitters in majors tore up the minor leagues, they didn't have a .283 career minor league average. That's not accurate, really. Offensive performance in the minors is strongly tied to age-appropriateness for level. The idea that an 18y/o in his second pro season and first in full-season ball should be more developmentally advanced than a 21-y/o college junior starting out (like Benintendi did) in low A, simply because the first player has more pro experience, makes no sense. Margot is 1-2 levels higher than even the best collegiate draftees. Give him two more years in AAA, and I'm quite sure he'll be hitting well over .300 with power. Or move him down to high A ball (where most collegiate draftees will start), and he'll do the same. Age advanced players (Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutcheon, Gregory Polanco) of Margot's type (speed, contact, average power) often develop their hitting skills well beyond their minir league performance, because they were moved extremely quickly due to defensive prowess and offensive sufficiency.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 11, 2016 9:39:18 GMT -5
Devers went from a -9 FRAA defender last year to a +11 mid way through this year. The last prospect I saw totally flip the switch at third base like that was Nolan Arenado. Oh, great, now I have something else I have to look at. I'd forgotten that BP had minor league defensive stats. I think their methodology is an evolution of the one Clay Davenport is still using; he has him going from 0 to +12. And BTW, Devers is +11 .9 FRAA, in 71 games, which is +25 R/150. No wonder why he seems to make a great play every time a forum member sees him in person. I think that all of the evaluations that worry about him putting on weight because of his "body type" and having to move to 1B, and hence ding him a bit in the rankings, are very old-school. It seems to me to be just a step above saying a player has "the good face." Two things come to mind: 1) Devers having to split 3B reps with Chavis last year. 2) Devers not having a full offseason before last year because of his Instructs injury. He definitely showed tools to become at least an average defensive 3B last year. When you look at the body up close, you can see where the concerns have come from in the past - he's got a big lower half and always has. But if he can stay on top of it, no question he stays at third and is a solid defender, imo.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 11, 2016 11:06:45 GMT -5
Oh, great, now I have something else I have to look at. I'd forgotten that BP had minor league defensive stats. I think their methodology is an evolution of the one Clay Davenport is still using; he has him going from 0 to +12. And BTW, Devers is +11 .9 FRAA, in 71 games, which is +25 R/150. No wonder why he seems to make a great play every time a forum member sees him in person. I think that all of the evaluations that worry about him putting on weight because of his "body type" and having to move to 1B, and hence ding him a bit in the rankings, are very old-school. It seems to me to be just a step above saying a player has "the good face." Two things come to mind: 1) Devers having to split 3B reps with Chavis last year. 2) Devers not having a full offseason before last year because of his Instructs injury. He definitely showed tools to become at least an average defensive 3B last year. When you look at the body up close, you can see where the concerns have come from in the past - he's got a big lower half and always has. But if he can stay on top of it, no question he stays at third and is a solid defender, imo. Yeah, I can see it ... and he's so young, his face looks a little round. The overall effect in person is to make him look a little soft (which I don't think is true). But there is a pretty strong "good face" nonsense to it. If you see him play for just a little while, you notice that he's athletic and has some decent speed. There's no particular reason to think he'll have to move off the position, imo.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 11, 2016 11:28:23 GMT -5
Two things come to mind: 1) Devers having to split 3B reps with Chavis last year. 2) Devers not having a full offseason before last year because of his Instructs injury. He definitely showed tools to become at least an average defensive 3B last year. When you look at the body up close, you can see where the concerns have come from in the past - he's got a big lower half and always has. But if he can stay on top of it, no question he stays at third and is a solid defender, imo. Yeah, I can see it ... and he's so young, his face looks a little round. The overall effect in person is to make him look a little soft (which I don't think is true). But there is a pretty strong "good face" nonsense to it. If you see him play for just a little while, you notice that he's athletic and has some decent speed. There's no particular reason to think he'll have to move off the position, imo. The big arm doesn't hurt his case, either. FWIW, the Sox have done well regarding developing defensive skills in players deemed "barely sufficient" (or soon-to-move) risks. Shaw, Bogaerts, and if you want to call the positional switches, Betts and Hanley to an extent. I think the early CW (likely, as you said, a product of physical appearance over just observation) has followed Devers, and it'll be a year or two before the CW acquiesces to reality.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2016 12:34:44 GMT -5
Anyone know where Betts and Xander came in on Laws top 25 under 25 that came out yesterday? Xander came in at 7th Mookie 11th KLaw Top 25 Under 25Ranking of guys who were eligible for last year's list as well as this year's, after an unchanged Trout-Harper-Machado: 20154. Betts 5. Yelich 6. Bogaerts 7. Wacha 8. Polanco 2016 4. Bogaerts 5. Polanco 6. Betts 7. J Fernandez 8. C Martinez 9. Yelich Wacha not even an honorable mention. Seager, Bryant, and Lindor all debuted ahead of Xander.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 7:56:30 GMT -5
I'm essentially saying I was expecting more and I likely had Margot higher than I should have. Coming into this year, he was on a very similar career track to McCutchen. It's a long way between McCutchen and just about everyone else - in both leagues. He's one of the 3 or 4 best players in the game. Myself, I never came close to that sort of projection for Margot, and he doesn't need to get close to that to meet expectations. I just checked the Chihuahua roster and the comparisons are laughable. He's 21 and most of the other starters look to be in their mid to late 20s, including James Loney. He's on track to make an appearance with the Padres this year, and his contact rate makes him someone to keep an eye on. He just doesn't strike out. Norm don't look now but McCutchen is in the midst of a 3 year decline. Was subtle at first, stolen base drop and defensive slippage, then progressed a little more last year and this year his game has fallen off a cliff as he struggles to seemingly adjust to losing some of the athleticism that made him dominate. I wouldn't bet against him but he clearly shouldn't be talked about as a top 3-4 player in the game anymore.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 8:00:13 GMT -5
Going back to the Guerra and Margot talk. I always felt Guerra was over-rated and too much was put on a low A ball breakout. We so that too much as prospect followers. The guys who "breakout" with the bat at those levels need to be looked at very cautiously until they do it in AA.
Margot was and still is a very good prospect and should have a solid major league career, but he's unlikely to be a star and was very redundant for Boston.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2016 11:15:15 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 13, 2016 14:54:29 GMT -5
with a chat: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-71316/12:07 Dat Guy: Which is more likely, Benintendi traded or Benintendi called up? 12:08 Dave Cameron: Called up, by a lot. 12:08 Jack: Yoan Moncada gets called up in ________ of 2017, and he plays _______. 12:08 Dave Cameron: June, 3rd base. 12:59 Boston Dan: Moncada looks amazing but even if he turns into a superstar, he’ll cost +40 mil in arbitration, so it’s really a $100 mil deal over 7 years. Still worth it? 12:59 Dave Cameron: By a ton. Have you seen what $100 million buys in FA these days? 1:00 TheDudeofNY: Who’s this year’s Schwarber/Conforto who gets called up and goes on a torrent for a playoff team? 1:00 Dave Cameron: Benintendi. 1:12 Josh in DC: Wait … you expect Benintendi to be a GREAT player THIS year? That seems like a reach, but I’m a Red Sox fan, so I’ll take it! 1:13 Dave Cameron: Not saying he’ll be great, but I could see him being a league average hitter with terrific defense and baserunning value. and slightly off-topic for the thread 12:17 Owen: What would a Drew Pomeranz to Boston trade look like? Seems like he’s getting somewhat overlooked as a deadline option. His breakout seems pretty legitimate and he’s controlled through 2018–long enough for it to be worthwhile to give up real assets for him, but not long enough for the Padres to realistically consider him a post-rebuild core piece (as the Braves might say about Teheran). 12:17 Dave Cameron: Would imagine the Padres would want a guy like Devers as a headliner, plus some other stuff. They’re going to hang a high price tag on him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2016 15:21:02 GMT -5
with a chat: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-71316/12:07 Dat Guy: Which is more likely, Benintendi traded or Benintendi called up? 12:08 Dave Cameron: Called up, by a lot. 12:08 Jack: Yoan Moncada gets called up in ________ of 2017, and he plays _______. 12:08 Dave Cameron: June, 3rd base.12:59 Boston Dan: Moncada looks amazing but even if he turns into a superstar, he’ll cost +40 mil in arbitration, so it’s really a $100 mil deal over 7 years. Still worth it? 12:59 Dave Cameron: By a ton. Have you seen what $100 million buys in FA these days? 1:00 TheDudeofNY: Who’s this year’s Schwarber/Conforto who gets called up and goes on a torrent for a playoff team? 1:00 Dave Cameron: Benintendi. 1:12 Josh in DC: Wait … you expect Benintendi to be a GREAT player THIS year? That seems like a reach, but I’m a Red Sox fan, so I’ll take it! 1:13 Dave Cameron: Not saying he’ll be great, but I could see him being a league average hitter with terrific defense and baserunning value. and slightly off-topic for the thread 12:17 Owen: What would a Drew Pomeranz to Boston trade look like? Seems like he’s getting somewhat overlooked as a deadline option. His breakout seems pretty legitimate and he’s controlled through 2018–long enough for it to be worthwhile to give up real assets for him, but not long enough for the Padres to realistically consider him a post-rebuild core piece (as the Braves might say about Teheran). 12:17 Dave Cameron: Would imagine the Padres would want a guy like Devers as a headliner, plus some other stuff. They’re going to hang a high price tag on him. If that means "called up for good," I think that's dead on. But the more I think it through, the more certain I am that he gets selected to Boston as soon as the Portland season is over, and that he has a good chance of being on any post-season roster.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2016 15:40:21 GMT -5
If that means "called up for good," I think that's dead on. But the more I think it through, the more certain I am that he gets selected to Boston as soon as the Portland season is over, and that he has a good chance of being on any post-season roster. Moncada definitely would be an awesome weapon on the bench in the postseason.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 14, 2016 10:14:35 GMT -5
Keith Law's midseason top 50 rankings came out this morning:
3. Benintendi 5. Moncada 7. Devers 14. Espinoza 45. Kopech
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2016 10:23:23 GMT -5
Keith Law's midseason top 50 rankings came out this morning: 3. Benintendi 5. Moncada 7. Devers 14. Espinoza 45. Kopech Now well that's just spectacular.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jul 14, 2016 10:35:38 GMT -5
Gonna be pretty amazing when our entire lineup is homegrown (Benintendi LF, Bradley CF, Betts RF, Moncada 3B, Bogaerts SS, Pedroia 2B, Devers 1B, Vazquez/Swihart C) except for Encarnacion at DH 😉.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 14, 2016 13:29:00 GMT -5
Just spitballing the next rankings on this site:
1 Moncada 2 Beintendi 3 Espinoza 4 Devers 5 Kopech/Groome 6 Groome/Kopech 7 Travis 8 Johnson 9 Chavis 10 Basabe/Lakins/Ockimey
Is this the best top 10 we've ever seen on this site? I can't remember anything close, especially to the top 6.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 14, 2016 14:21:12 GMT -5
Sept 2005 is the gold standard:
1 Jonathan Papelbon (24.5 WAR) 2 Jon Lester (37.6 WAR) 3 Anibal Sanchez (22.4 WAR) 4 Hanley Ramirez (36.4 WAR) 5 Craig Hansen (-1.9 WAR) 6 Manny Delcarmen (3.8 WAR) 7 Dustin Pedroia (48.0 WAR) 8 Kelly Shoppach (8.1 WAR) 9 Brandon Moss (6.3 WAR) 10 David Pauley (1.1 WAR) 11 David Murphy (10.3 WAR) 12 Luis Soto* 13 Jacoby Ellsbury (28.4 WAR) 14 Jed Lowrie (9.2 WAR) 15 Abe Alvarez (-0.3 WAR) 16 Ryan Phillips* 17 Clay Buchholz (14.7 WAR)
*never made majors
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 14, 2016 14:36:57 GMT -5
Keith Law's midseason top 50 rankings came out this morning: 3. Benintendi 5. Moncada 7. Devers 14. Espinoza 45. Kopech Who was top 10?
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 14, 2016 14:40:49 GMT -5
I wasn't sure where to post this, but Xander came in at #20 on Dave Cameron's Annual Trade Value Rankings List. A related aside: This list cements Mookie's place as one of the 10 most valuable players in baseball, at least according to Cameron.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 14, 2016 14:43:26 GMT -5
I wasn't sure where to post this, but Xander came in at #20 on Dave Cameron's Annual Trade Value Rankings List. A related aside: This list cements Mookie's place as one of the 10 most valuable players in baseball, at least according to Cameron. It's depressing to me that Bogaerts only has three years left of team control after this year. Since an extension seems unlikely at this point, I would consider trading him after the 2017 season while his value is still high. Same goes for Mookie and JBJ (and anyone else) if they get two 2 year of team control left with no extension.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 14, 2016 14:51:17 GMT -5
I wasn't sure where to post this, but Xander came in at #20 on Dave Cameron's Annual Trade Value Rankings List. A related aside: This list cements Mookie's place as one of the 10 most valuable players in baseball, at least according to Cameron. It's depressing to me that Bogaerts only has three years left of team control after this year. Since an extension seems unlikely at this point, I would consider trading him after the 2017 season while his value is still high. Same goes for Mookie and JBJ (and anyone else) if they get two 2 year of team control left with no extension. I get what you are saying and I could be swayed to agree, but at the same time this is the Red Sox we are talking about not some small market club. I see no reason the Sox couldn't get at least two of the three signed long term in a free agency type bidding war and maybe trade whoever is the odd man out. It isn't as if they will have much in the way of long term commitments eating up the payroll by the time they are eligible for free agency.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 14, 2016 16:16:59 GMT -5
Keith Law's midseason top 50 rankings came out this morning: 3. Benintendi 5. Moncada 7. Devers 14. Espinoza 45. Kopech Now well that's just spectacular. And you can add Groome in somewhere between Kopech and Espinoza. Klaw said today in his chat that he ranks Groome 5th in our system. So we have 6 of his top 50 prospects currently.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 14, 2016 16:26:45 GMT -5
I wasn't sure where to post this, but Xander came in at #20 on Dave Cameron's Annual Trade Value Rankings List. A related aside: This list cements Mookie's place as one of the 10 most valuable players in baseball, at least according to Cameron. It's depressing to me that Bogaerts only has three years left of team control after this year. Since an extension seems unlikely at this point, I would consider trading him after the 2017 season while his value is still high. Same goes for Mookie and JBJ (and anyone else) if they get two 2 year of team control left with no extension. Are you f*&ing nuts? Why do Sox fans always think they'll never sign anyone? This inferiority complex needs to end. Hav ethey botched some things i the past, sure. But all big market, big money teams have. Yanks blew it with Moncada. Sox did sign Price and Pedro and Manny. Between this and the OMG what will Groome do, the board is filled with a bunch or teenage girls sometimes. Cowboy up Sox fans!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2016 16:29:37 GMT -5
Now well that's just spectacular. And you can add Groome in somewhere between Kopech and Espinoza. Klaw said today in his chat that he ranks Groome 5th in our system. So we have 6 of his top 50 prospects currently. But maybe Kopech would be forced out. A tragedy of true. Seriously though, the talent we have in the farm and in the MLB under 27 is out of this world. Better than the Cubs, Astros or Rangers I believe. Although not the most balanced up top I admit, as Houston has nice young arms at the MLB level.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 14, 2016 16:32:49 GMT -5
Part of the fear is that they haven't been overly willing to give out stupid deals and JBJ and Xander are Boras clients. Boras almost always nets his guys, at the very least, a stupid offer. Xander will be in his prime when he hits FA. It can't be THAT difficult to understand where people are coming from on this, can it?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 14, 2016 16:41:07 GMT -5
Now well that's just spectacular. And you can add Groome in somewhere between Kopech and Espinoza. Klaw said today in his chat that he ranks Groome 5th in our system. So we have 6 of his top 50 prospects currently. I haven't looked, but are other draft picks who signed ranked in that top 100?
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