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Red Sox acquire LHP Drew Pomeranz for RHP Anderson Espinoza
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2017 21:55:49 GMT -5
Just confuses me a bit is all. Understandable, this is just coming from my understanding of "+ PTBNL" trades where that PTBNL is based off of the value received by the team of the "A Player" in the deal. Could come down to my naivety and misunderstanding of these things. The completely unstated point I meant to get at was Dombrowski's willingness to pay the full cost in trades. Less to do with "he hasn't given them anything" and more to do with "why are they still paying for him?" As a Nets fan I look at it like I do the Pierce/KG trade. They're still paying for players who haven't played for them for years. That's bad business. Ah. OK. That's certainly not what happened here. It was likely that they were scouting extended spring training with a list of guys to pick from. Had nothing to do with the value received from the player. That's not typically how PTBNL trades work.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jun 8, 2017 7:35:10 GMT -5
If Coca is what they gave up for 0.0 innings of Thornburg, imagine what they'd have to give up if he'd thrown a pitch. I certainly don't want this to sound like I'm singling out threeifbaerga, because I'm definitely not. But his post above is kind of the most straightforward version of a sentiment I've seen around these forums and all over Twitter. I just ask: where is this sentiment coming from that sounds like Thornburg is never going to throw a pitch for the Red Sox? We all know he's under team control through 2019, right? This is a thought separate and apart from one's opinion of whether or not it's a good trade, but I've just seen so much of "they traded these guys for a guy who isn't even pitching" like he suffered some injury that's going to keep him out until 2020 and he's never going to come back, and I find it confusing. Never mind the fact that this was an injury that happened after the trade, so it's not like the trade was made knowing he wasn't likely to pitch or something. I say this as someone who will readily admit it looks like Travis Shaw alone could be more valuable over those three seasons, never mind his full team control, than Thornburg will be. Then you add Dubon, Pennington, and Coca as a bonus. But I guess I'd just expect to see more of "well hopefully he salvages some value over the next couple years" than the "they traded for a guy who isn't pitching" I've seen everywhere. Just confuses me a bit is all. Could be that hes young with a couple separate shoulder injuries. Pessimism too.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 28, 2017 19:12:46 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 28, 2017 19:14:34 GMT -5
Ouch, disaster season and now, seasons for Espinoza. Hope the guy can recover.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 28, 2017 19:31:42 GMT -5
2 lost years now Espinoza. Ouch.
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 28, 2017 19:35:55 GMT -5
I feel bad for the kid, still young enough to come back and I wish him luck.
Don't feel bad for the GM though. Poetic justice.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2017 19:42:25 GMT -5
I feel bad for the kid, still young enough to come back and I wish him luck. Don't feel bad for the GM though. Poetic justice. "Poetic justice" for Preller would not involve a career-threatening injury to a 19-year-old kid.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 28, 2017 20:08:44 GMT -5
Tough break for The One. He's so young that his career should be fine or at least I hope so.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2017 20:15:12 GMT -5
It's too bad about Espinoza. That kid had an electric arm. Hope he still does a couple of years down the road. He's still young enough to recover and be the top of the rotation starter that I believed him to be. When it comes to TJ surgery you never quite know how it's going to turn out. I still think he has a bright future ahead of him, but that future will probably be when he's 23 or 24 rather than when he's 21 or 22.
I guess if Dombrowski knew then that would explain why he didn't rescind the trade. I'm just kidding as I doubt Dombrowski truly knew. I do wonder if he suspected because of his build. But it is karma coming back to bite Preller and it couldn't happen to a better GM.
Fundamentally I am still opposed to the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal and have no desire to see the Sox make a deal like that again if given a similar circumstance, but at least the Sox will get some value out of the deal for this season and perhaps next season and now the Padres' side of the deal is facing uncertainty.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jul 29, 2017 23:29:37 GMT -5
I feel bad for the kid, still young enough to come back and I wish him luck. Don't feel bad for the GM though. Poetic justice. "Poetic justice" for Preller would not involve a career-threatening injury to a 19-year-old kid. To be fair, I think that's what kcsoxfan was saying by separating the two aspects of this, one he felt bad about and the other not so much.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 30, 2017 0:38:16 GMT -5
It's all about probabilities and potential. At this point it's hard to say DD made a bad decision on this deal. Pomeranz has proven as expected and we may even be able to offer him a qualifying offer at the end of his contract. So far this has been a HR.
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Post by bnich on Jul 30, 2017 7:53:36 GMT -5
The news about Espinoza is terrible. With Pomeranz' performance this makes that trade look much better. I wish Espinoza the best of luck. The kid had great stuff for such a young age.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 30, 2017 9:47:08 GMT -5
It's too bad about Espinoza. That kid had an electric arm. Hope he still does a couple of years down the road. He's still young enough to recover and be the top of the rotation starter that I believed him to be. When it comes to TJ surgery you never quite know how it's going to turn out. I still think he has a bright future ahead of him, but that future will probably be when he's 23 or 24 rather than when he's 21 or 22. I guess if Dombrowski knew then that would explain why he didn't rescind the trade. I'm just kidding as I doubt Dombrowski truly knew. I do wonder if he suspected because of his build. But it is karma coming back to bite Preller and it couldn't happen to a better GM. Fundamentally I am still opposed to the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal and have no desire to see the Sox make a deal like that again if given a similar circumstance, but at least the Sox will get some value out of the deal for this season and perhaps next season and now the Padres' side of the deal is facing uncertainty. I don't agree with this. At the time the trade was made I can recall fangraphs citing that they said Pomeranz 3rd pitch turned him into a a very good starter. He's pitching on the cusp of 2 right now? But definitely a 3? If he is hovering around a 2 - and you are trying to win right now-- you make the deal. There is risk with prospects. You still don't know what Espinoza is as you mention. IMO that goes with A ball players. If you weren't interested in winning right now then I'd agree with your "fundamental" opinion.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 30, 2017 9:59:11 GMT -5
2 lost years now Espinoza. Ouch. You were a bid adversary of the deal at the time. What are your thoughts now? Why did you believe what you did at the time and what evidence did you have to support it?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 30, 2017 10:36:29 GMT -5
It's too bad about Espinoza. That kid had an electric arm. Hope he still does a couple of years down the road. He's still young enough to recover and be the top of the rotation starter that I believed him to be. When it comes to TJ surgery you never quite know how it's going to turn out. I still think he has a bright future ahead of him, but that future will probably be when he's 23 or 24 rather than when he's 21 or 22. I guess if Dombrowski knew then that would explain why he didn't rescind the trade. I'm just kidding as I doubt Dombrowski truly knew. I do wonder if he suspected because of his build. But it is karma coming back to bite Preller and it couldn't happen to a better GM. Fundamentally I am still opposed to the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal and have no desire to see the Sox make a deal like that again if given a similar circumstance, but at least the Sox will get some value out of the deal for this season and perhaps next season and now the Padres' side of the deal is facing uncertainty. It was well reported shortly after the deadline that the Sox were offered by MLB to rescind the trade. After the deadline is the key, the Sox could not add anyone to the team to make the playoffs and make a run at it. For those who point out using hindsite as their aid that that team had no chance, even though that's debatable that's missing a big part of the point. The Sox were trying to acquire Drew not only for last season but this season and next, which coincides, at that time and still today, their best chance to win a World Series. Brian Bannister who is credited with turning around Rich Hill's career, noted the Drew Pomeranz had a similair spin rate on his cutter and that Drew dur to developing this third pitch was the real deal. A difference was that Drew had the pedigree being the fifth pick overall in the 2010 draft ahead of Harvey and Chris Sale. Some pointed out that this proves they were wrong, again that misses the target completely, a draft is how people through their own process viewed said player as well as several other tangents to be considered. The point is he was viewed as a top 5 pick in the draft by some professional whose full time job it is to make these decisions. Precious few here regardless of what they believe have the ability to even be considered for such a position. Therefore it was a professional opinion and has merit. "This guy has a pedigree," Bannister said. "This is the No. 5 overall pick, he's been in important trades before as an important piece. This is a guy that really -- and it's not always a fair comparison -- but he pitches with the same mix that [Clayton] Kershaw's pitching with. There's no changeup, really, it's a four-seam fastball, it's a cutter-slider, and it's a good curveball. While that's not a fair comparison, it's unique because very few pitchers pitch with that kind of mix where it's fastball and two breaking balls, and the changeup, if it's ever thrown, is more of just a sidepiece. Most pitchers have a changeup or a splitter as part of their mix. It's a unique look. I think he's still figuring out what his ceiling is with it, but it's definitely an improvement for him and I'm excited to have him." -- If Pomeranz is so good, why did it take this long for him to start delivering on his potential at age 27 in his sixth season? Bannister points to his 6-foot-6 frame. "You see a lot of the taller lefties -- I mean, Randy Johnson didn't have a league-average walk rate until he was 29 years old," Bannister said. "Andrew Miller is now more in his sweet spot command-wise. So you see these tall lefties peaking later, either in their 20s or early 30s. Randy had that run of Cy Young Awards in his 30s. They're a different animal. And so some of these guys do admittedly peak later than pitchers with different body types." That by a person who have forgotten more about pitching than many (myself included) will ever know with ample evidence to support the trade should have been taken at face value, UNLESS they had something tangible to refute this. Well I never heard any yet several people clung to their ideas and refused to listen to an abundance of solid evidence that contradicted their opinion. Several of those who were pissed about not resigning Hill did not like the Pomeranz trade, who in the view of Bannister was a younger better version of Hill. I never got past that inherent contradiction. Many people who loved AE as the One realized that he was far away and many things could go wrong so they had to make this deal, even if nothing went wrong the bird in hand outweighs the one in the bush. I'm in that boat and love prospects and the idea that on a nightly basis we might have 8 homegrown prospects in our starting line-up. AE is still young enough to have the TJ surgery be a mere hick-up in his career but it also sets back his arrival time in the major by up to 2 years the way this was a lost season and so to will most of not all of next season. Before that he had a very questionable year with the Sox, the "One" showed cracks in his armor. DD no matter who you think of him, is shrewd in trades and very often comes out on top of the deals.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2017 13:07:35 GMT -5
2 lost years now Espinoza. Ouch. You were a bid adversary of the deal at the time. What are your thoughts now? Why did you believe what you did at the time and what evidence did you have to support it? Why does it even matter? There is no point to this post.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 31, 2017 9:55:58 GMT -5
It's too bad about Espinoza. That kid had an electric arm. Hope he still does a couple of years down the road. He's still young enough to recover and be the top of the rotation starter that I believed him to be. When it comes to TJ surgery you never quite know how it's going to turn out. I still think he has a bright future ahead of him, but that future will probably be when he's 23 or 24 rather than when he's 21 or 22. I guess if Dombrowski knew then that would explain why he didn't rescind the trade. I'm just kidding as I doubt Dombrowski truly knew. I do wonder if he suspected because of his build. But it is karma coming back to bite Preller and it couldn't happen to a better GM. Fundamentally I am still opposed to the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal and have no desire to see the Sox make a deal like that again if given a similar circumstance, but at least the Sox will get some value out of the deal for this season and perhaps next season and now the Padres' side of the deal is facing uncertainty. I don't agree with this. At the time the trade was made I can recall fangraphs citing that they said Pomeranz 3rd pitch turned him into a a very good starter. He's pitching on the cusp of 2 right now? But definitely a 3? If he is hovering around a 2 - and you are trying to win right now-- you make the deal. There is risk with prospects. You still don't know what Espinoza is as you mention. IMO that goes with A ball players. If you weren't interested in winning right now then I'd agree with your "fundamental" opinion. I don't think he's even in the discussion as a 2. Look at his game log and innings pitched. For as good as he's been when he's on the mound, he's not on it nearly enough. He's completed 7 innings once and gone over 6 only 4 other times. He hurts the bullpen. Not suggesting he's not a valuable pitcher but he needs to go deeper into games. He averages under 5.5 innings per.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 31, 2017 10:59:38 GMT -5
You were a bid adversary of the deal at the time. What are your thoughts now? Why did you believe what you did at the time and what evidence did you have to support it? Why does it even matter? There is no point to this post. If your are going to make post in a public forum and contradict others who have ample evidence to support their claim then you should feel obligated to provide your evidence and not merely state your claim, refute others and move on. If that's fine with you then that you should at least be aware that in the eyes of some many that decreases your validity. That is all.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 31, 2017 11:11:34 GMT -5
I don't agree with this. At the time the trade was made I can recall fangraphs citing that they said Pomeranz 3rd pitch turned him into a a very good starter. He's pitching on the cusp of 2 right now? But definitely a 3? If he is hovering around a 2 - and you are trying to win right now-- you make the deal. There is risk with prospects. You still don't know what Espinoza is as you mention. IMO that goes with A ball players. If you weren't interested in winning right now then I'd agree with your "fundamental" opinion. I don't think he's even in the discussion as a 2. Look at his game log and innings pitched. For as good as he's been when he's on the mound, he's not on it nearly enough. He's completed 7 innings once and gone over 6 only 4 other times. He hurts the bullpen. Not suggesting he's not a valuable pitcher but he needs to go deeper into games. He averages under 5.5 innings per. Just last season SP average 17 outs per start or 5.6. So he's league average in his outings and pitching above league average. How many starting pitchers who have pitched more innings have average more IP/start? He's tied for 21 in the AL for IP. Based on the link below, I think you need to revise your definition of a #2. We all agree that not every team has an ace or said another way there is far less than 30 aces but how many #1's or #2 are there? Do you take the total and divide it into 4 or five segments. If you define it another way I think you'd be surprised how few would qualify this invalidating your preconceived idea of what a #2 should be. Would we all like to see him go deeper into games, sure. www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/sort/gamesStarted
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 31, 2017 11:22:23 GMT -5
Why does it even matter? There is no point to this post. If your are going to make post in a public forum and contradict others who have ample evidence to support their claim then you should feel obligated to provide your evidence and not merely state your claim, refute others and move on. If that's fine with you then that you should at least be aware that in the eyes of some many that decreases your validity. That is all. I didn't contradict anyone here. Nothing you support of my claim of me bashing anyone else's opinion is valid and that really is all here. This trade has been talked about ad nasiuem for 33 pages now. I didn't want to keep discuss it for the sake of your personal interest. I could careless what you think of me for the hundredth time.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2017 15:27:21 GMT -5
I don't agree with this. At the time the trade was made I can recall fangraphs citing that they said Pomeranz 3rd pitch turned him into a a very good starter. He's pitching on the cusp of 2 right now? But definitely a 3? If he is hovering around a 2 - and you are trying to win right now-- you make the deal. There is risk with prospects. You still don't know what Espinoza is as you mention. IMO that goes with A ball players. If you weren't interested in winning right now then I'd agree with your "fundamental" opinion. I don't think he's even in the discussion as a 2. Look at his game log and innings pitched. For as good as he's been when he's on the mound, he's not on it nearly enough. He's completed 7 innings once and gone over 6 only 4 other times. He hurts the bullpen. Not suggesting he's not a valuable pitcher but he needs to go deeper into games. He averages under 5.5 innings per. He's been a number 2 this year. Period. Fact (by the only reasonable definition of what a #2 is). There are, conveniently, exactly 150 pitchers who have made 11 or more starts this year. The top 15 are your aces and the next 30 are your #2's. Pomeranz ranks 39th in WAR/GS. Furthermore, he had a 5.29 ERA and 825 OPS allowed in his first 7 starts, as he shook off the rust from the injuries that made him inconsistent with the Sox last year, and has a 2.69 ERA and 671 OPS allowed in his last 14. Using his estimated WAR rate over those starts ranks him 28th, which is tick-above-average #2 rather than borderline. And I'll add that the reason I liked the trade despite being one of AE's biggest champions was that he has the profile to pitch like a #1 in the post-season a la Lester, because he's unusually tough on elite hitters. Meanwhile, Price has been a borderline 2 (ranking 41st) and ERod, despite his hurts and ups and downs, a ticks-above-average #3 (ranking 56th). Porcello has been a good #4 (ouch).
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 31, 2017 15:44:22 GMT -5
Can we stop this thread? Some people like drew and think we got good value. Some people think that AE is the second coming of Koufax. I am not sure AE will ever pitch in the bigs. 6 ft and 165 lbs. trying to throw 100 mph. physics says it is not going to work. He did not dominate low A yet. Right now we have the better of the deal with a major level pitcher for a low minor's prospect. Case closed, move on to other threads, like chavis being overated!!!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 31, 2017 16:21:17 GMT -5
How is Chavis overrated?
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2017 16:23:56 GMT -5
This is (/sigh/) the Pomeranz thread. Let's keep it to that topic.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2017 0:57:38 GMT -5
It's too bad about Espinoza. That kid had an electric arm. Hope he still does a couple of years down the road. He's still young enough to recover and be the top of the rotation starter that I believed him to be. When it comes to TJ surgery you never quite know how it's going to turn out. I still think he has a bright future ahead of him, but that future will probably be when he's 23 or 24 rather than when he's 21 or 22. I guess if Dombrowski knew then that would explain why he didn't rescind the trade. I'm just kidding as I doubt Dombrowski truly knew. I do wonder if he suspected because of his build. But it is karma coming back to bite Preller and it couldn't happen to a better GM. Fundamentally I am still opposed to the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal and have no desire to see the Sox make a deal like that again if given a similar circumstance, but at least the Sox will get some value out of the deal for this season and perhaps next season and now the Padres' side of the deal is facing uncertainty. I don't agree with this. At the time the trade was made I can recall fangraphs citing that they said Pomeranz 3rd pitch turned him into a a very good starter. He's pitching on the cusp of 2 right now? But definitely a 3? If he is hovering around a 2 - and you are trying to win right now-- you make the deal. There is risk with prospects. You still don't know what Espinoza is as you mention. IMO that goes with A ball players. If you weren't interested in winning right now then I'd agree with your "fundamental" opinion. I was interested in winning but I was willing to gamble that Buchholz gets his head screwed on straight which was usually his history after crapping the bed or that E-Rod got healthy. At the time Porcello and Price were a strong 1-2 punch and Wright was coming off an all-star appearance. There was no thought that our manager was going to decide that Wright was useful as a pinch-runner. So I figured if one of those two things happened the Sox had 3 top notch starters and a reasonably reliable 4th starter for a post-season series along with a thunderous offense. And that eventually the Red Sox would have to change over their pitching staff at the end of the decade. And as it was becoming more likely the Sox actually could grab Jay Groome with the 12th pick, suddenly it looked like that the Red Sox, who could never develop starting pitching, would have three front line top notch pitching prospects in Espinoza, Groome, and Kopech, whom we had no idea at the time would eventually be used as a main attraction to obtain Chris Sale. I grew up watching the Sox in the 80s when the Red Sox rotation featured guys like Clemens, Hurst, Ojeda, Tudor, and Boyd at differing times in the first half of the 1980s. The Sox developed their pitching together and it gelled beautifully in 1986, so it wasn't hard to imagine that could be the case for the Sox with those three so they wouldn't have to spend David Price money or trade to obtain pitching. That was my fundamental thought. I had images of three young cost controlled top of the rotation type starters with each having about 6 years of service time and coming up around the same time. I'm quite aware that these things don't always work, such as Wilson/Pulsipher/Isringhausen not being what the Mets hoped they'd be in the mid 90s or knowing that smallish frame pitchers like Espinoza are questionable to hold up. I know that they can once in awhile. Once upon a time the Red Sox had a smallish framed pitcher who did alright. Guy by the name of Pedro. The Yankees also had one of those smallish framed pitchers who did alright for himself for about a dozen years - a guy named Ron Guidry. I thought Espinoza could be one of those guys and he was right on track. Strong peripheral numbers at A ball for a young guy. Endorsed by Pedro himself. So I wasn't too gung-ho to see him dealt for a guy with an injury history who had a short-term record of success and had plenty of risk himself. I never disliked Drew Pomeranz or wish we didn't have him. I simply didn't like the price. But as Preller deserves, the guy he got, is now the guy facing TJ surgery, poetic justice, although crappy luck for a fantastic pitching prospect like Espinoza. So right now the Red Sox "win" the deal, even though I still fundamentally dislike the trade. And who knows? Maybe Pomeranz continues to pitch well now that he's finally throwing his cutter again, but I don't anticipate he'd be around after 2018. I'm not sure I'd want them to invest big bucks on a guy who is an injury risk, and maybe at some point Espinoza gets healthy, gives the Padres 6 plus years of service time and gives them some serious quality during a time when the Red Sox farm still struggles to develop young starters. So I'm glad with the results of the trade, but I don't like the process, which is converse of the way I feel regarding the Shaw deal. I liked the deal when it was announced, but the results have been brutal and many now complain about it, but many never said a word the day the deal actually occurred. So like everybody else regarding this trade, I feel what I feel and it's not going to change just like somebody thinking the opposite way isn't going to change their opinion at this point, and at this point what difference does it make? The only reason this thread is being dredged up yet again is because a certain somebody (not you soxjim) felt the nauseating need to gloat about how much freaking smarter they are than others, because of course that person knew that Espinoza would undergo TJ surgery before Pomeranz would. Of course we didn't hear a peep out of this person when Pomeranz gave up a killer HR last year to Crisp in the playoffs or when Pomeranz was unable to throw his cutter and wasn't lasting more than 4 innings/start and killing the bullpen in the process earlier this season. Obviously if he was hesitant to throw the cutter that means that he wasn't too sure of his health. Maybe he's gotten to the point he is simply willing to take the risk because without that risk the results won't be there. So it's working then. Good. The Red Sox can use all the help they can get. So as Red Sox fans whether we liked the deal or not we can all be happy that Pomeranz is pitching well. That's the bottom line.
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