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Clay Buchholz's Last Days as a Red Sox?
steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 16, 2016 20:25:45 GMT -5
After all that has gone on this past week, climaxing with the Pomeranz trade and the signing of Groome, is Buchholz going to be moved. He has had multiple opportunities to turn around his poor season. I doubt he will add much in the pen, and with Joe Kelly pretty much ready to contribute in that role, I can see him being traded or worse.
Do you think management have given up on salvaging Buchholz finely or do you still see some reason to continue with him on the staff?
If you see him traded, what could we honestly figure on with respect to a return? I still believe, with the right team, he has value...especially taking into account the high cost of starting pitching. I don't see him back in our rotation this year. He seems to be healthy (which is fine for a change), but he no longer seems to be able to consistently stay out of trouble.
In my opinion, if we paid a good portion of his salary, we may be able to get a B prospect back.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 16, 2016 20:49:41 GMT -5
In theory, it makes sense for a team that is out of contention to trade for Buchholz now, let him show improvement, and then flip him for more than they paid in the offseason. However, you'd have to find such a team that believes in Buchholz and is happy to roll the dice, plus such teams usually don't want to part with prospects - would be more useful if the Sox needed a back of the bullpen type as a return.
Additionally, you need to consider the Red Sox SP depth chart. It is comprised mainly of pitchers, which means injuries will happen. Are you happy to go with Owens, Elias or O'Sullivan the rest of the way if one of the starting 5 suffers a season-ending injury? (For some reason Wilkerson isn't available anymore...)
So I would say no, Clay is not going to be traded this month.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 16, 2016 21:17:28 GMT -5
The only way someone would take Buchholz is if they think they can fix his mechanics.
If they can fix his mechanics, then they would hang onto him, because he would be a valuable asset.... Until he gets hurt again, which is usually around the 120 innings or so.
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Post by ricelynnevans on Jul 16, 2016 21:17:57 GMT -5
My guess is they ask him to get sent down to stay in rotation shape with the thought/promise he gets the call if a current starter goes down and also a call up in September. I thinks he accepts it to keep his hopes alive of still pitching for the Sox this year and his hopes of staying in the organization going forward.
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 16, 2016 21:43:30 GMT -5
31 years old. He is done. The player can refuse a minor league assignment. DFA ASAP
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Post by ricelynnevans on Jul 16, 2016 22:12:48 GMT -5
That's why I said they ask and he accepts. Insurance for team and hope for him. 31 years old? May be done. How olds Rich Hill? Probably 90 percent done in Boston after the years up and if this is how it plays out.
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Post by bosox81 on Jul 16, 2016 22:16:40 GMT -5
My guess is they ask him to get sent down to stay in rotation shape with the thought/promise he gets the call if a current starter goes down and also a call up in September. I thinks he accepts it to keep his hopes alive of still pitching for the Sox this year and his hopes of staying in the organization going forward. That makes no sense. Why would he accept being sent down when he can then pitch for a less crowded rotation somewhere else?
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Post by ricelynnevans on Jul 16, 2016 22:23:17 GMT -5
Ties to Boston the only team he's played for and where he wants to be. It would be for a month and a half to work on his mechanics. He knows he's sucked and wants to right his ship.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2016 22:24:46 GMT -5
What exactly would the point be of trading the last guy in the pen, the guy designated for mop-up duty? To get a B- prospect? To clear a roster spot for Tommy Layne?
You have to weigh the very small benefits of trading him soon, versus the chance that he turns back into himself while pitching for us, and the benefits if that happens. Those benefits could be huge, since "himself" is a #1 or #2 starter. You come out ahead if it the odds of it happening are 5% to 10%.
If he has a couple of tremendously good long relief appearances, teams will come calling for him. But in that case, you probably want to keep him as your 6th starter. While the difference between him pitching with the team down or up 5 or 6 runs, vs. Layne or Hembree, is very unlikely to mean a thing.
You can start to revisit the idea of trading him to someone who wants to take a flier on him in mid-late August, when you have a better idea of how good Owens, Elias, and Johnson might be if we need one or more of them.
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Post by ricelynnevans on Jul 16, 2016 22:27:09 GMT -5
Read the latest interviews of him on it. He knows what's up but it doesn't sound like he wants to go, though he know he deserves it. As I stated from the beginning, just my guess. Time will tell.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2016 22:39:33 GMT -5
My guess is they ask him to get sent down to stay in rotation shape with the thought/promise he gets the call if a current starter goes down and also a call up in September. I thinks he accepts it to keep his hopes alive of still pitching for the Sox this year and his hopes of staying in the organization going forward. That makes no sense. Why would he accept being sent down when he can then pitch for a less crowded rotation somewhere else? Ties to Boston the only team he's played for and where he wants to be. It would be for a month and a half to work on his mechanics. He knows he's sucked and wants to right his ship. The choice offered him would be pitching mop-up in MLB, or starting in AAA and trying to turn back into himself. The latter greatly increases his chances of somebody picking up his $13.5M option for next year. Otherwise, he's looking at vastly less. It's a no-brainer. BTW, he does need to consent to go to the minors, but I don't think he needs to be DFA'd. Unless they changed this in the last CBA, he'd have to clear "optional assignment waivers" (a formality) and he'd remain on the 40-man. There's an unspoken agreement not to claim guys on OAW, whereas someone might gamble his remaining salary on a waiver claim to see if they can turn him around. That's $5.8M at present, so it seems unlikely. But being optioned would be less of an insult than being DFA'd and clearing waivers.
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Post by braziliansox on Jul 17, 2016 3:12:15 GMT -5
I think a good fit for him would be the Phillies, especially if they trade Hellickson. They'll need someone to eat some innings as their young pitchers approach inning limits, they can easily take his salary and would even have some upside if he pitches well and becomes worthy of next years option. In the Sox point of view, I dont think they can ask for more than salary relief really, which is not an insignificant amount when you're above the luxury tax. And yes, I'd rather roll the dice with Elias or Owens if needed at this point.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 17, 2016 6:41:00 GMT -5
There are a lot of pitchers having bad years including the oft pined for Sonny Gray. Clay still is at 91-94.
IMO Clay is not done. Confidence, mechanics may be factors but he has looked pretty good out of the pen...and is a multiple innings eater there. If we bring Kelly back and put him in the pen, maybe we can hold Clay in AAA to work on things (if there are things to be worked on). If Kelly falters in the pen or if we have a blip in the rotation, Buch has value to us. Trading him would remove a security blanket and likely not generate a return greater than that loss of comfort.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 17, 2016 7:17:16 GMT -5
There are a lot of pitchers having bad years including the oft pined for Sonny Gray. Clay still is at 91-94. IMO Clay is not done. Confidence, mechanics may be factors but he has looked pretty good out of the pen...and is a multiple innings eater there. If we bring Kelly back and put him in the pen, maybe we can hold Clay in AAA to work on things (if there are things to be worked on). If Kelly falters in the pen or if we have a blip in the rotation, Buch has value to us. Trading him would remove a security blanket and likely not generate a return greater than that loss of comfort. This may or not be true, but a change of scenery is probably best for both sides at this point.
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 17, 2016 7:17:39 GMT -5
Sox already have 2 maybe 3 pitchers in the pen that are inconsistent and that is not including Koji who has given it up as well.
Why would Dombrowski add 2 more un-reliable arms to the mix in Kelly or Bucholz?
Kelly is gone at seasons end if not at the deadline, far as bucholz, like posters have said, maybe the last guy out of the pen for now.
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Post by trotfan on Jul 17, 2016 7:41:10 GMT -5
Clay may benefit from weight training his core and adding some 20 lbs before I give up on him ...Clay seems like a cardio freak he is lanky and frail .I would simplify Clay and have him concentrate on his mechanics .Clay is not done just like Verlander was not done ....Strength and less cardio and core work will help clay hone in the mechanics and put him at elite level in a matter of months ...this year I would give him one last shot and if he bombs shut him down but keep him and start the program the next day ....up his caloric intake and protein and start deadlifting ...This was bad clay next year is good clay .I think Clay is lost his mechanics much like a golfer may lose there swing ...Don't give up on this kid yet .I blame this situation on the training and coaching staff his mechanics have been a mess for awhile now.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jul 17, 2016 7:59:27 GMT -5
Buchholtz is not done, but he needs a fresh start in a more pitcher friendly park. The Dodgers may be an option to trade an outfielder at the Deadline or in August if they acquire an impact outfielder as expected.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 17, 2016 8:04:49 GMT -5
I don't believe doing dead lifts will turn Clay around anytime soon. His metabolism is one in which he could put away 5000 plus calories everyday and maybe gain an ounce.
The problem to me is the numbers game. Some of you thought Kelly may be the one that goes. Maybe the idea is, as mentioned, to keep him around, at least, till Kimbrel is healthy and then decide. Can't see him going to AAA, but maybe that can be done (with his permission and no one claiming him).
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Post by ryantoworkman on Jul 17, 2016 8:26:59 GMT -5
I'll always be thankful for the contributions to championships in 07 and 13, but both sides need to move on at this point.
Put him on the market, and get the best return possible. Miami needs a starter and have little to deal. I also think the big ballpark, and heavy FL air would help him a great deal. The pitiful NL East offenses would help also.
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 17, 2016 9:28:23 GMT -5
What exactly would the point be of trading the last guy in the pen, the guy designated for mop-up duty? To get a B- prospect? To clear a roster spot for Tommy Layne? You have to weigh the very small benefits of trading him soon, versus the chance that he turns back into himself while pitching for us, and the benefits if that happens. Those benefits could be huge, since "himself" is a #1 or #2 starter. You come out ahead if it the odds of it happening are 5% to 10%. We are now into the Bret Saberhagen/Ramon Martinez level of reclamation project odds, a former elite pitcher trying to re-discover what once was. In those cases they got a chance because there were no better alternatives, but now (barring injury) our rotation seems set for this year and beyond. If you can get a solid relief prospect like Luis Ysla for Alexandro De Aza I think we could get some type of decent return for Clay if we eat that salary, and would very much be inclined to do so at the deadline or in August if an opportunity comes up. That clears space for Kelly/Kimbrel, gives Clay a shot to revive his career and get his $13m option picked up, and ideally nets us a buy-low prospect. Of course I totally understand your counterpoint in the first paragraph, Buchholz could be stellar in longer relief outings and may be a better spot starter option than anyone else we have. But even those scenarios are not givens, especially if Kelly and Brian Johnson begin forcing the issue in the next couple weeks. ADD: Assuming Kelly does well in the relief role, Tommy Layne is long gone already... SP (5) - Price/Wright/Porcello/Pomeranz/E-Rod RP (4) - Ziegler, Tazawa, Ross, Uehara Fight for last 3-4 spots between: Barnes Hembree Buchholz Layne Kelly Kimbrel (assuming his return before rosters expand) Layne would be the first to go when Tazawa returns, then either Buchholz goes or Hembree is sent down if they choose to call up Kelly. Kimbrel coming back before Sept would either send both Kelly and Hembree down or Buchholz goes with one of the two sent down. Basically, Clay needs an injury or very poor performance by someone else to even be the last man on this staff right now.
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 17, 2016 9:52:36 GMT -5
Clay may benefit from weight training his core and adding some 20 lbs before I give up on him ... I literally said the exact same thing....back in 2008.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jul 17, 2016 10:20:42 GMT -5
I don't believe doing dead lifts will turn Clay around anytime soon. His metabolism is one in which he could put away 5000 plus calories everyday and maybe gain an ounce. The problem to me is the numbers game. Some of you thought Kelly may be the one that goes. Maybe the idea is, as mentioned, to keep him around, at least, till Kimbrel is healthy and then decide. Can't see him going to AAA, but maybe that can be done (with his permission and no one claiming him). I'd give my entire worldly fortune (such as it is) for that!
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 17, 2016 10:49:14 GMT -5
Call it like it is, Bust
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 17, 2016 10:50:35 GMT -5
I think he stays as mop up guy/ depth. Doubt he would agree to go down. I don't think a few good starts at AAA does much for his value, but another DL trip or getting hit down there could lower it even more. Doubt anyone would pick up the option. He most likely plays for a lot less, with an incentive heavy contract next year.
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Post by trotfan on Jul 17, 2016 11:30:30 GMT -5
Clay may benefit from weight training his core and adding some 20 lbs before I give up on him ... I literally said the exact same thing....back in 2008. Im sick over this ..he's got so much talent and he can turn his career around but it's going to take someone to actually believe what we believe and shut him down and start this program Monday ...I'm only talking core work and gaining muscle through core workouts ...I'm telling you Clay would be incredible with this program .I wish someone would intervene on Clays behalf very soon do not trade Clay until this is tried .Clay is an elite pitcher
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