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Prospect Development & Projection
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Post by bookiemetts on Jul 22, 2016 11:05:55 GMT -5
If we went back in time a few years and posted these 3 lines for JBJ/Xander/Mookie to this point in the season:
.297/.376/.548 15 hr
.324/.380/.470 11 hr
.306/.345/.527 19 hr
1) How many people would believe it?
2) If people had to guess which line belongs to who, what would be the consensus guess?
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Post by m1keyboots on Jul 22, 2016 11:49:57 GMT -5
If we went back in time a few years and posted these 3 lines for JBJ/Xander/Mookie to this point in the season: .297/.376/.548 15 hr .324/.380/.470 11 hr .306/.345/.527 19 hr 1) How many people would believe it? 2) If people had to guess which line belongs to who, what would be the consensus guess? Tbh I believed in JBJ, not so much in Xander. I know people don't take much stock in college baseball, but MVP of the college World Series is kind of telling. I think we were all in love with Mooks. I really had no idea Bogey was going to improve so much defensively, and contact wise. 1. JBJ 2. Mookie 3. Xander? Idk they're all awesome Stat lines. |
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 22, 2016 12:11:13 GMT -5
mYBAD
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 22, 2016 13:30:24 GMT -5
This is a pretty great exercise. I would say...
1. JBJ (career minor league: .294/.391/.460)
2. Mookie (career minor league: .316/.408/.472)
3. Xander (career minor league: .296/.373/.489)
In any case, I think we can all say we are happy with where they have all ended up, regardless of how they got there and regardless of differences from their minor league performance. Mookie's power is pretty unbelievable. Could be a 30-30 guy as soon as this year, at 23 years old.
I don't think anyone would believe you, because those lines are all probably hovering around the high projections for each of those players. Each of the lines is also outperforming what those players did in the minors. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up the rest of the season, especially with the harder schedule of games coming up through August.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2016 15:08:15 GMT -5
Without looking at what other people answered, I came up with the same one: JBJ, Mookie, Xander.
Based on PECOTA pre-season projections of TAv, Sox players are at the following percentiles:
99+% Bradley (that's what happens when you count 2014 and shouldn't have)
99% Ortiz
83% Bogaerts
71% Holt
64% Shaw
50% Betts
50% Pedroia
49% Ramirez
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Post by bookiemetts on Jul 22, 2016 16:20:46 GMT -5
Without looking at what other people answered, I came up with the same one: JBJ, Mookie, Xander. Based on PECOTA pre-season projections of TAv, Sox players are at the following percentiles: 99+% Bradley (that's what happens when you count 2014 and shouldn't have) 99% Ortiz 83% Bogaerts71% Holt 64% Shaw 50% Betts50% Pedroia 49% Ramirez Wow Betts is only at 50%? That's amazing. |
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Post by dnfl333 on Jul 22, 2016 20:21:56 GMT -5
Thank you Mr. Epstein
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2016 23:26:56 GMT -5
Without looking at what other people answered, I came up with the same one: JBJ, Mookie, Xander. Based on PECOTA pre-season projections of TAv, Sox players are at the following percentiles: 99+% Bradley (that's what happens when you count 2014 and shouldn't have) 99% Ortiz 83% Bogaerts71% Holt 64% Shaw 50% Betts50% Pedroia 49% Ramirez Wow Betts is only at 50%? That's amazing. BP has a much bigger Fenway park adjustment than FG, so they have Mookie as having the same year as last year. They also have Ortiz as the 9th best hitter in MLB rather than the best. What bugs me is that there is an objective way of determining the correct park factor, including how to weight this year versus previous years. But no one has done all the work, so we're stuck with multiple different takes on it. |
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wbcd
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Post by wbcd on Jul 23, 2016 7:35:39 GMT -5
Thank you Mr. Cherington. Very few Sox fans would have kept them together all these years. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 23, 2016 8:17:02 GMT -5
Thank you Mr. Cherington. Very few Sox fans would have kept them together all these years. Cherington was a big part of the team that got hold of those prospects, and yes, he refused to trade them away. In Bradley's case, at the very least, it would have been for something like a bag of used balls. Anyone who likes to point fingers could rummage through these threads and have a field day. What they needed was what the staff was willing to give them, which was playing time. That's despite the feral media that clutters the airwaves in Boston, demanding instant gratification while spewing endless sell-low scenarios that would have gutted the Sox. Cherington made mistakes, trying to buy more time by replicating the 2013 strategy of mining the bargain bins for talent till they could reap the rewards from all that young talent. But in the end this is his team as much as anyones. |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 23, 2016 8:41:43 GMT -5
If we went back in time a few years and posted these 3 lines for JBJ/Xander/Mookie to this point in the season: .297/.376/.548 15 hr .324/.380/.470 11 hr .306/.345/.527 19 hr 1) How many people would believe it? 2) If people had to guess which line belongs to who, what would be the consensus guess? 1. Zero, that all 3 panned out. 2. I would have it JBJ, Betts, Xander |
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Post by larrycook on Jul 23, 2016 20:17:03 GMT -5
Thank you Mr. Cherington. Very few Sox fans would have kept them together all these years. I am so glad bc over valued prospects and I just wished dombrowski would be more like bc in that regard. |
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Post by bosox81 on Jul 23, 2016 20:19:08 GMT -5
Thank you Mr. Cherington. Very few Sox fans would have kept them together all these years. Cherington was a big part of the team that got hold of those prospects, and yes, he refused to trade them away. In Bradley's case, at the very least, it would have been for something like a bag of used balls. Anyone who likes to point fingers could rummage through these threads and have a field day. What they needed was what the staff was willing to give them, which was playing time. That's despite the feral media that clutters the airwaves in Boston, demanding instant gratification while spewing endless sell-low scenarios that would have gutted the Sox. Cherington made mistakes, trying to buy more time by replicating the 2013 strategy of mining the bargain bins for talent till they could reap the rewards from all that young talent. But in the end this is his team as much as anyones. FWIW, Cherington denied the JBJ for Furbush rumors. |
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Post by bosox81 on Jul 23, 2016 20:31:20 GMT -5
Thank you Mr. Cherington. Very few Sox fans would have kept them together all these years. Yeah, I also think had DDO taken over for Theo, at least one of those three would've been gone by now. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2016 12:10:30 GMT -5
This is a pretty great exercise. I would say... 1. JBJ (career minor league: .294/.391/.460) 2. Mookie (career minor league: .316/.408/.472) 3. Xander (career minor league: .296/.373/.489) In any case, I think we can all say we are happy with where they have all ended up, regardless of how they got there and regardless of differences from their minor league performance. Mookie's power is pretty unbelievable. Could be a 30-30 guy as soon as this year, at 23 years old. I don't think anyone would believe you, because those lines are all probably hovering around the high projections for each of those players. Each of the lines is also outperforming what those players did in the minors. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up the rest of the season, especially with the harder schedule of games coming up through August. At first blush, I would've given Bogaerts the first line, but after thinking about it and factoring in that Bradley had to have one of those lines (I'd have signed him up for less power), I think I agree with everyone else. Funny how player dev works sometimes... |
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2016 12:31:39 GMT -5
If we went back in time a few years and posted these 3 lines for JBJ/Xander/Mookie to this point in the season: .297/.376/.548 15 hr .324/.380/.470 11 hr .306/.345/.527 19 hr 1) How many people would believe it? 2) If people had to guess which line belongs to who, what would be the consensus guess? A few years, and I would say I'd buy any of the three for Xander, would be surprised one was JBJ, and would be incredulous if you threw in Mookie. He exploded from lottery ticket to meteor. Even Jackie, though: I never thought he'd hit with so much power. I figured 15 homeruns would be a peak season. All else aside, I am happy to pay to watch them everyday. |
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jul 26, 2016 12:36:20 GMT -5
Thank you Mr. Cherington. Very few Sox fans would have kept them together all these years. Cherington was a big part of the team that got hold of those prospects, and yes, he refused to trade them away. In Bradley's case, at the very least, it would have been for something like a bag of used balls. Anyone who likes to point fingers could rummage through these threads and have a field day. What they needed was what the staff was willing to give them, which was playing time. That's despite the feral media that clutters the airwaves in Boston, demanding instant gratification while spewing endless sell-low scenarios that would have gutted the Sox. Cherington made mistakes, trying to buy more time by replicating the 2013 strategy of mining the bargain bins for talent till they could reap the rewards from all that young talent. But in the end this is his team as much as anyones. It's my impression -- and this post is at least as much a question as a statement -- that Cherington had a lot of the organizational control over the farm system after Hoyer left, and that while it took a year or two to make the transition, Cherington did a lot of the heavy lifting in building the farm system while working for Epstein. While Hoyer was unquestionably very good, I think Cherington probably should get the most credit for the improved international and increased depth of the system. Is that far wrong? |
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