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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 16, 2016 10:55:10 GMT -5
Does dombrowski revisit some combination of Robertson/Quintana/sale this offseason? I think Chicago is the first call dombrowski makes after the season ends. Pretty sure the first call will be to Encarnacion's agent. Don't think we'll see a blockbuster with CHC. Agree with the EE call. Shaw scares me a bit to just plug him into 1B. Hanley's bat plays for 1B, not DH only. EE can spell Hanley a bit @ 1st. We would be nowhere without our current DH's productivity.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2016 19:04:47 GMT -5
Pretty sure the first call will be to Encarnacion's agent. Don't think we'll see a blockbuster with CHC. Agree with the EE call. Shaw scares me a bit to just plug him into 1B. Hanley's bat plays for 1B, not DH only. EE can spell Hanley a bit @ 1st. We would be nowhere without our current DH's productivity.Unless the young players continue to improve, Leon shows he's for real, young future stars continue to join the team and the pitchers pitch like they are able to and what we expect.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2016 19:33:46 GMT -5
Agree with the EE call. Shaw scares me a bit to just plug him into 1B. Hanley's bat plays for 1B, not DH only. EE can spell Hanley a bit @ 1st. We would be nowhere without our current DH's productivity.Unless the young players continue to improve, Leon shows he's for real, young future stars continue to join the team and the pitchers pitch like they are able to and what we expect. What you say is very true, but I think I know what he meant. I'm sure all of our hearts skipped beats when we thought Ortiz had injured himself when he fouled the ball of his shin and the thought came that he could be done for the year. That would have been brutal.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2016 19:42:00 GMT -5
Unless the young players continue to improve, Leon shows he's for real, young future stars continue to join the team and the pitchers pitch like they are able to and what we expect. What you say is very true, but I think I know what he meant. I'm sure all of our hearts skipped beats when we thought Ortiz had injured himself when he fouled the ball of his shin and the thought came that he could be done for the year. That would have been brutal. Well, I took it to mean that he thinks we need EE no matter what next year. There is no replacing Papi. I think you have to do it throughout the roster, not just with one signing who could collapse and leave us with yet another bust of a 9 figure contract. Enough money has been wasted. It's time to start thinking about extending our core. I'd rather be able to extend JBJ than be forced to let him go, just so we can sign EE. At some point, the money runs out. There are a lot more mid 30's power hitters who collapse almost immediately than turn out to have the longevity of Papi.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 17, 2016 7:59:26 GMT -5
What you say is very true, but I think I know what he meant. I'm sure all of our hearts skipped beats when we thought Ortiz had injured himself when he fouled the ball of his shin and the thought came that he could be done for the year. That would have been brutal. Well, I took it to mean that he thinks we need EE no matter what next year. There is no replacing Papi. I think you have to do it throughout the roster, not just with one signing who could collapse and leave us with yet another bust of a 9 figure contract. Enough money has been wasted. It's time to start thinking about extending our core. I'd rather be able to extend JBJ than be forced to let him go, just so we can sign EE. At some point, the money runs out. There are a lot more mid 30's power hitters who collapse almost immediately than turn out to have the longevity of Papi. I would say kick the tires on ee and see what the market is? But, be VERY careful of what you offer. I would guess the market will be min 4yrs at 20 to 25. Certainly the Pablo number looks like dead weight now. Hanley is not worth what he is being paid. Is that a number you would want to take on knowing that you have a group coming that will probably cost a lot to retain. Rather see us trade Pablo for Donaldson. LOL
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 17, 2016 10:44:28 GMT -5
My point was referring to Shaw. I just don't feel he has the bat for 1B (& maybe not even 3B as pitchers are exploiting holes in his swing) & Hanley doesn't for DH. I'm all for extending the kids, just don't sacrifice middle of the order power. I can see EE aging like Nelson Cruz (36) & with mostly DH duty, he should remain fairly durable.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 17, 2016 11:54:14 GMT -5
I would say kick the tires on ee and see what the market is? But, be VERY careful of what you offer. I would guess the market will be min 4yrs at 20 to 25. Certainly the Pablo number looks like dead weight now. Hanley is not worth what he is being paid. Is that a number you would want to take on knowing that you have a group coming that will probably cost a lot to retain. Rather see us trade Pablo for Donaldson. LOL I would guess the EE number would be 3/66 or 4/80 and will cost a draft pick for the qualifying offer. Red Sox payroll (assumes Buchholz option picked up) -16 Ortiz -11.3 Castillo (assuming stays off 40-man) -9 Uehara -3.4 Tazawa -2.9 Hanigan (assuming option not picked up) + arbs for Bogaerts, Holt, JBJ, Ross, Kelly, Pomeranz, Abad 66.3 AAV - Price, Porcello, E.Rodriguez, Buchholz, Wright 13.8 AAV - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Hembree 53.8 AAV - Pedroia, Betts, H.Ramirez, Shaw, Benintendi, Leon, Young, Sandoval, Swihart/Vazquez 151.9 AAV - covers 9 position players and 9 pitchers, excludes 7 arb players, assumes $18mm for benefits/40-man roster costs, etc. Note that the luxury tax threshold ($189mm in 2016) is likely to rise for 2017.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2016 12:39:43 GMT -5
For me the deciding factor about whether to go after EE would be if there is a forfeiture of a draft pick.
I don't know if that's changing this offseason.
If that penalty goes away and the Sox could get away with 3 years $66 million I'd be interested in him, although I suspect it's more likely 4 years $80 million. There's less competition for him given that he's a DH and most teams don't want to spend big bucks on a DH. I do think guys that are strictly DHs can last a bit longer because their bodies don't get quite as beat up as badly as position players, but there is a risk there.
It's not pretty but they can probably go into spring training with Sandoval back at 3b, Shaw at 1b, and Hanley DHing and wait for Yoan Moncada and/or Sam Travis to kick Sandoval out of 3b and if both are ready at some point next year, then Travis Shaw becomes trade bait around the trade deadline. The end game of Sam Travis at 1b, Yoan Moncada at 3b, and Hanley as DH could work well and save money for the Sox to use when the big free agent winter comes around.
Obviously if EE is around the season starts off in better shape with EE DHing, Hanley at 1b and Shaw at 3b, and soon enough Moncada can displace Shaw and render him as trade bait, but sooner or later I would think that Sam Travis could force Hanley off of 1b, but with EE around, Hanley would have nowhere left to go (or perhaps Sam Travis would simply become trade bait), and they'd already have Sandoval wasting away on the bench.
The one thing I know is that if the Red Sox have to surrender a draft pick and next year's draft class is considered very strong, I'd hate to see the Sox lose a draft pick, even if it's pick number 20 something. That would probably stop me from wanting to do the signing.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 17, 2016 15:14:11 GMT -5
A lot may depend on this years finish. If we win it all, EE won't be signed. If we get outslugged by Toronto or Texas, he may be signed. I'm waiting on a Moderator to remind us about staying on thread topic.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2016 15:51:49 GMT -5
If they add the DH to the NL this winter, it would drive his price way up.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 25, 2016 10:30:51 GMT -5
Is Robertson on the decline, or did all those innings finally catch up with him? He could be an ideal eighth inning guy if he bounces back next season.
Bradley, Buchholz, Pomeranz and Hernandez for Quintana and Robertson.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 25, 2016 14:47:46 GMT -5
I'd be interested in Robertson as a salary dump, no need for us to trade Bradley.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 25, 2016 17:10:37 GMT -5
I'd be interested in Robertson as a salary dump, no need for us to trade Bradley. Absolutely. Couple of (B- to C+-grade) prospects and take on a couple of overpriced years in full. Otherwise, no thanks.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 25, 2016 17:12:26 GMT -5
Is Robertson on the decline, or did all those innings finally catch up with him? He could be an ideal eighth inning guy if he bounces back next season. Bradley, Buchholz, Pomeranz and Hernandez for Quintana and Robertson. Pomeranz and Quintana put up pretty similar numbers last year. So you'd basically be giving away JBJ for a tin of Kodiak.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 1, 2016 23:44:08 GMT -5
Is Robertson on the decline, or did all those innings finally catch up with him? He could be an ideal eighth inning guy if he bounces back next season. Bradley, Buchholz, Pomeranz and Hernandez for Quintana and Robertson. Pomeranz and Quintana put up pretty similar numbers last year. So you'd basically be giving away JBJ for a tin of Kodiak. Except almost all of pomeranz's success was in the national league. All I saw was a future tommy John victim every time I saw him pitch after the trade. I could watch Quintana pitch all day. When he is mechanically right, he is a beast, the white sox would be fools to unload him, but stranger things have happened in the past.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 2, 2016 0:41:13 GMT -5
I think Quintana is great, but if you're going to trade for him wouldn't it make more sense to give up another prospect to get Sale instead? Quintana has an additional year of control, but if the cost is almost as steep as Sale would be, I'd rather just trade for him, albeit at a steeper cost.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2016 1:13:49 GMT -5
Pomeranz and Quintana put up pretty similar numbers last year. So you'd basically be giving away JBJ for a tin of Kodiak. Except almost all of pomeranz's success was in the national league. All I saw was a future tommy John victim every time I saw him pitch after the trade. I could watch Quintana pitch all day. When he is mechanically right, he is a beast, the white sox would be fools to unload him, but stranger things have happened in the past. Bradley-Quintana is a WAR-neutral deal. And Robertson had a huge jump in BB rate to over 4.6/9 last year, has a declining K rate and increasing ERA/FIP, along with an $11.5M AAV salary for two years. Pomeranz was worth three times what Robertson was last year, and is on the "good" end of the peak performance/aging curve. By trading Buchholz, you're losing valuable depth. Same for Hernandez. The Sox could get substantially more in return by trading each player separately. Plus, the additional $12-$15M in salary will put them well over the cap, increasing their tax. So it'll cost $16-$20M a year, effectively, to have a marginal benefit on the rotation, add a 7th-inning arm, a major loss in the OF, and a significant hit to the team's depth. I don't see how that trade helps them. It's a rotation upgrade that creates a huge hole elsewhere and increases costs. I like Quintana, but this team doesn't *need* him.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 5, 2016 0:47:13 GMT -5
Except almost all of pomeranz's success was in the national league. All I saw was a future tommy John victim every time I saw him pitch after the trade. I could watch Quintana pitch all day. When he is mechanically right, he is a beast, the white sox would be fools to unload him, but stranger things have happened in the past. Bradley-Quintana is a WAR-neutral deal. And Robertson had a huge jump in BB rate to over 4.6/9 last year, has a declining K rate and increasing ERA/FIP, along with an $11.5M AAV salary for two years. Pomeranz was worth three times what Robertson was last year, and is on the "good" end of the peak performance/aging curve. By trading Buchholz, you're losing valuable depth. Same for Hernandez. The Sox could get substantially more in return by trading each player separately. Plus, the additional $12-$15M in salary will put them well over the cap, increasing their tax. So it'll cost $16-$20M a year, effectively, to have a marginal benefit on the rotation, add a 7th-inning arm, a major loss in the OF, and a significant hit to the team's depth. I don't see how that trade helps them. It's a rotation upgrade that creates a huge hole elsewhere and increases costs. I like Quintana, but this team doesn't *need* him. I guess in my mind,it is a rotation upgrade that, while taking us over the cap, also takes us back to the World Series. I do not think the current rotation can get us there. Porcello- really put things together last season. Had the sinker, two seam and four seam working well together. Plus he really benefitted from a ton of run support. Hard to imagine him duplicating 2016 again. Price - really came out the gate flat. Over throwing and missing spots or leaving pitches up. He got better later in the summer, but declined after surpassing 200 innings. I expect improvement from him to start the year and another swoon to end the year. pomeranz- was really good in the national league. Struggled when he joined us, then got a bit better. Should easily double his Red Sox win total in 2017, provided his ucl is not already damaged. Wright - knuckle baller saved our bacon in the first half of the year, provided Farrell keeps him off the base paths, should have a similar year for us, starts out ok then in the heat of the summer wilts, then picks in up again as the cooler temps move back in. Rodriguez- nothing but upside. Love to watch him pitch, hopefully we keep him healthy. Buchholz - one of two things. Either is mechanically good and does a great job until breaking down physically in July or he is mechanically off and spends most of the year in the bullpen. Would not a sale easily be an upgrade over Pomeranz or wright or Buchholz? Provided the bullpen does not implode, would not a rotation of sale-porcello-price-wright/Buchholz-Rodriguez just about seal the deal for us in the American League?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 5, 2016 1:59:08 GMT -5
Bradley-Quintana is a WAR-neutral deal. And Robertson had a huge jump in BB rate to over 4.6/9 last year, has a declining K rate and increasing ERA/FIP, along with an $11.5M AAV salary for two years. Pomeranz was worth three times what Robertson was last year, and is on the "good" end of the peak performance/aging curve. By trading Buchholz, you're losing valuable depth. Same for Hernandez. The Sox could get substantially more in return by trading each player separately. Plus, the additional $12-$15M in salary will put them well over the cap, increasing their tax. So it'll cost $16-$20M a year, effectively, to have a marginal benefit on the rotation, add a 7th-inning arm, a major loss in the OF, and a significant hit to the team's depth. I don't see how that trade helps them. It's a rotation upgrade that creates a huge hole elsewhere and increases costs. I like Quintana, but this team doesn't *need* him. I guess in my mind,it is a rotation upgrade that, while taking us over the cap, also takes us back to the World Series. I do not think the current rotation can get us there. Porcello- really put things together last season. Had the sinker, two seam and four seam working well together. Plus he really benefitted from a ton of run support. Hard to imagine him duplicating 2016 again. Price - really came out the gate flat. Over throwing and missing spots or leaving pitches up. He got better later in the summer, but declined after surpassing 200 innings. I expect improvement from him to start the year and another swoon to end the year. pomeranz- was really good in the national league. Struggled when he joined us, then got a bit better. Should easily double his Red Sox win total in 2017, provided his ucl is not already damaged. Wright - knuckle baller saved our bacon in the first half of the year, provided Farrell keeps him off the base paths, should have a similar year for us, starts out ok then in the heat of the summer wilts, then picks in up again as the cooler temps move back in. Rodriguez- nothing but upside. Love to watch him pitch, hopefully we keep him healthy. Buchholz - one of two things. Either is mechanically good and does a great job until breaking down physically in July or he is mechanically off and spends most of the year in the bullpen. Would not a sale easily be an upgrade over Pomeranz or wright or Buchholz? Provided the bullpen does not implode, would not a rotation of sale-porcello-price-wright/Buchholz-Rodriguez just about seal the deal for us in the American League? Why do you expect Price to fade? Historically his worst months have always been April/May and he just keeps getting better. There is no fade at end of year after he goes over 200 innings. Last year was really an outlier in all ways when looking at his career. He sucks in Playoffs overall, but has great regular season numbers in Sept/Oct, so for me that's not him wearing down. His playoff struggles sure seem more mental than physical.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 5, 2016 3:23:00 GMT -5
Bradley-Quintana is a WAR-neutral deal. And Robertson had a huge jump in BB rate to over 4.6/9 last year, has a declining K rate and increasing ERA/FIP, along with an $11.5M AAV salary for two years. Pomeranz was worth three times what Robertson was last year, and is on the "good" end of the peak performance/aging curve. By trading Buchholz, you're losing valuable depth. Same for Hernandez. The Sox could get substantially more in return by trading each player separately. Plus, the additional $12-$15M in salary will put them well over the cap, increasing their tax. So it'll cost $16-$20M a year, effectively, to have a marginal benefit on the rotation, add a 7th-inning arm, a major loss in the OF, and a significant hit to the team's depth. I don't see how that trade helps them. It's a rotation upgrade that creates a huge hole elsewhere and increases costs. I like Quintana, but this team doesn't *need* him. I guess in my mind,it is a rotation upgrade that, while taking us over the cap, also takes us back to the World Series. I do not think the current rotation can get us there. Porcello- really put things together last season. Had the sinker, two seam and four seam working well together. Plus he really benefitted from a ton of run support. Hard to imagine him duplicating 2016 again. Price - really came out the gate flat. Over throwing and missing spots or leaving pitches up. He got better later in the summer, but declined after surpassing 200 innings. I expect improvement from him to start the year and another swoon to end the year. pomeranz- was really good in the national league. Struggled when he joined us, then got a bit better. Should easily double his Red Sox win total in 2017, provided his ucl is not already damaged. Wright - knuckle baller saved our bacon in the first half of the year, provided Farrell keeps him off the base paths, should have a similar year for us, starts out ok then in the heat of the summer wilts, then picks in up again as the cooler temps move back in. Rodriguez- nothing but upside. Love to watch him pitch, hopefully we keep him healthy. Buchholz - one of two things. Either is mechanically good and does a great job until breaking down physically in July or he is mechanically off and spends most of the year in the bullpen. Would not a sale easily be an upgrade over Pomeranz or wright or Buchholz? Provided the bullpen does not implode, would not a rotation of sale-porcello-price-wright/Buchholz-Rodriguez just about seal the deal for us in the American League? Because to get Sale, they'll need to trade Bradley, or completely mortgage any hope for the future. Trade Bradley, and you're robbing Peter to pay Paul. The *team* gets no better. Pitching improves, defense and offense get worse. Sale guarantees nothing...if they don't win in the next couple of years with him (and it's far from given), the team will stink when he's gone, the young guys aren't cheap anymore, and there's zero contribution coming up from the minors. Get Sale and, if you're lucky, you've got the 2009 Yankees. I don't care about winning a single WS. They've won 3 this (short) century. I want to watch a perennially good team that has a shot at winning every year.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 7, 2016 23:48:36 GMT -5
I guess in my mind,it is a rotation upgrade that, while taking us over the cap, also takes us back to the World Series. I do not think the current rotation can get us there. Porcello- really put things together last season. Had the sinker, two seam and four seam working well together. Plus he really benefitted from a ton of run support. Hard to imagine him duplicating 2016 again. Price - really came out the gate flat. Over throwing and missing spots or leaving pitches up. He got better later in the summer, but declined after surpassing 200 innings. I expect improvement from him to start the year and another swoon to end the year. pomeranz- was really good in the national league. Struggled when he joined us, then got a bit better. Should easily double his Red Sox win total in 2017, provided his ucl is not already damaged. Wright - knuckle baller saved our bacon in the first half of the year, provided Farrell keeps him off the base paths, should have a similar year for us, starts out ok then in the heat of the summer wilts, then picks in up again as the cooler temps move back in. Rodriguez- nothing but upside. Love to watch him pitch, hopefully we keep him healthy. Buchholz - one of two things. Either is mechanically good and does a great job until breaking down physically in July or he is mechanically off and spends most of the year in the bullpen. Would not a sale easily be an upgrade over Pomeranz or wright or Buchholz? Provided the bullpen does not implode, would not a rotation of sale-porcello-price-wright/Buchholz-Rodriguez just about seal the deal for us in the American League? Because to get Sale, they'll need to trade Bradley, or completely mortgage any hope for the future. Trade Bradley, and you're robbing Peter to pay Paul. The *team* gets no better. Pitching improves, defense and offense get worse. Sale guarantees nothing...if they don't win in the next couple of years with him (and it's far from given), the team will stink when he's gone, the young guys aren't cheap anymore, and there's zero contribution coming up from the minors. Get Sale and, if you're lucky, you've got the 2009 Yankees. I don't care about winning a single WS. They've won 3 this (short) century. I want to watch a perennially good team that has a shot at winning every year. In the one hand, we now have sale atop our impressive rotation. And have a relatively young big league team with a legitimate shot at bringing home the trophy every year for the next three years! But sadly, we have to rebuild our nuked minor league system......... Aka boston's "white sands" farm system!!! In conclusion however, I'll take sale and send over the prospects everyday of the week and twice on Saturday!!!
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