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Making Room for Moncada and Devers
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2016 13:00:44 GMT -5
Here are the facts. Tattooing them on your body Leonard Shelby-style is optional.
1. We agonized here about the offensive value Mookie Betts would lose by being moved from 2B to CF or, worse yet, an OF corner. There was much discussion about trading him to a team that needed a 2B. As we gradually realized just how good Mookie was, we got more and more comfortable with the idea of him in the OF. It's working out OK so far.
Interpretation: If you have a guy who projects to be elite, you find a place for him. It would be one thing if we had a big hole to fill among the 6 starters other than 1B / 3B/ DH and the 5 starting pitchers, in which case maybe you trade Devers to fill that hole, but we don't. Bundling Devers with someone to get a better version of that someone (e.g., E-Rod plus Devers as part of a Sale package) is a thing you do only when you can't find a place for the guy.
1a. Sometimes guys who didn't need to move to an easier position end up playing it so well they gain overall value. Examples: Albert Pujols going from 3B to 1B, Manny Machado going from SS to 3B.
2. The ETA for Moncada as a regular would appear to be next June or July, depending on how he takes to his new position.
3. Rafael Devers is right on his tail. He'll probably end up being promoted to AA about 6 or 7 weeks behind Moncada. He could probably help the MLB club by next August.
Interpretation: We should be looking to get them both into the 2018 starting lineup.
4. Travis Shaw is a solid to good starting MLB 3B and 1B, but he's not good enough to block either one. He can be traded if injuries or underperformance create a hole, but ideally he can be kept as a 10th player, giving you the sort of bench that wins championships.
5. The offensive value you lose by converting Moncada from 2B to 3B, and Devers from 3B to 1B, is the same as converting Moncada from 2B to 1B. (Simple math.) So if the pair end up filling the infield corners, your only concern is finding the best defensive arrangement. You can always change your mind and swap them at some later point.
6. Whether Hanley or someone acquired to supplant him ends up as DH is a separate issue. However, I will point out that any offensive advantage that Encarnacion has is partially offset by Hanley's better defense, when you need a 1B. And while it's beginning to look like we might not need to eat any of Hanley's contract (because of the scarcity of good 1B), he wouldn't fetch much in return, more or less the equivalent of a top draft pick -- which you would lose to sign Encarnacion. It seems very unlikely that any upgrade would be worth the extra money ... money which will come out of your pool for extending Bogaerts, Betts, and Bradley.
So, here's what I'd do.
1) I'd convert Moncada for the time being to 1B, where he could be off-the-charts good defensively. Keep Devers at 3B, where he looks to be very good. Moncada is staying on the same side of the infield to learn an easier position and will have a much quicker learning curve. Devers has no learning curve at all. I think that this is the better defensive alignment in the short term. Maybe at some later point you decide it should be the other other way around ... but by that time, Moncada may be moving back to 2B (which is always your plan).
2) For 2018, also teach Moncada to play RF. Now you have Shaw backing up almost everybody. Lose an OF, or need to give one a day off, Shaw goes to 1B. Ditto for a corner INF, Shaw goes there. Lose Pedroia for a week or more, Moncada goes there (and he never stops taking balls there in infield). Sometimes you'd use Holt instead of Shaw, but that gives you great flexibility .. you can withstand an injury and still have a 10th man.
1B and RF are easy positions to learn compared to 3B. You could have Moncada learn 1B this winter and next spring; in June he takes over at 1B, Hanley moves to DH, and Sandoval is traded or becomes a spare part. The next winter and spring he adds RF to his arsenal, in preparation for Devers' arrival as the regular 3B in 2018. In theory Shaw can be traded that winter, but optimally and likely, there's no need and he's kept as the 10th man.
What's your plan?
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Post by waterview on Jul 25, 2016 13:19:52 GMT -5
I was following along, nodding my head, at your suggestions re Moncada to first and Devers to third. While the Moncada part of that seems counterintuitive, I see the short-term logic and the flexibility that leaves us with.
But I don't get the RF idea for Moncada in the long term. What about Mookie? Adding RF to Moncada's arsenal as an occasional backup is fine, but not clear why that would be part of a long term plan.
By the time Moncada is ready for regular major league duty, the option of him as backup for Pedroia (and in the longterm, his replacement) makes better sense to me. With the length of Pedroia's contract, that remains questionable, but with injuries I do not at all rule it out.
I'll be surprised, however, if all of the big three (Benintendi, Moncada & Devers) end up as regulars on the same major league team. I hope they do, but I suspect the RS recurring need for pitching will mean one (probably Devers) gets traded. In which cases the idea of Moncada moving to third becomes attractive again.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2016 13:28:45 GMT -5
If Moncada, Benintendi and Devers all work out and reach their ceilings, they would be better off trying to acquire a King's ransom for Mookie or JBJ or think about moving on from Pedroia. Prospects seem to be undervalued now, even though the league is being led by prospects from a year or two ago.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2016 13:40:25 GMT -5
The only way you have a real logjam that necessitates moving one of Devers/Moncada to 1B is if, (a) two years from now, all of Moncada, Devers, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Bradley, Betts and Benintendi are (b) healthy and (c) look like star-level players (at least 3+ WAR each) and (d) that statement remains true for a sustained period of time (a couple months or more). The odds of all that happening are pretty low, and it seems like a bad idea to preemptively and materially affect Moncada's development based on those odds.
Even if all those statements are true, the solution is to trade one of the aforementioned names if and when all those conditions are met. Moncada loses a ton of his value as a first baseman, even if you assume he makes up some of it with his defense. Same reason you trade one of Vazquez/Swihart rather than making Swihart a LF-only guy (I'll note that Eric was generally against moving Swihart to LF/1B).
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jul 25, 2016 13:41:27 GMT -5
I agree with this with JBJ being the most likely candidate considering he has the most service time. All of these young guys will become expensive via arb and FA before you know it. If Devers continues his development at 3B, you may be looking at Benintendi and Moncada both in the OF. From what I've heard though, Devers most likely landing spot is 1B.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2016 14:27:56 GMT -5
I don't see this as a problem. Dave Dombrowski is going to trade Devers and/or Benintendi away most likely.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Jul 25, 2016 14:39:22 GMT -5
Moncada is athletic enough for me not to worry about him adjusting to 3B if necessary. LF: Benintendi CF: Bradley RF: Betts 3B: Moncada or Shaw/ SS: Bogaerts 2B: Pedroia or Moncada 1B: Devers
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Post by manfred on Jul 25, 2016 14:39:45 GMT -5
I don't operate under the assumption Monada and Devers are going to overlap for a long time. Moncada could help this year with his speed, and he might stick by next year. Get him to 3B asap. Devers seems a few years away. Next year will be another full year in the minors at third. Then, who knows? Hanley'll be gone, Shaw may have turned into a pumpkin etc. He should develop independent of what is happening on Sox in '16 or '17.
But I anticipate Moncada will be well established at 3B before Devers is even ready to sniff big leagues. And, yes, Devers might get traded anyway.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 25, 2016 15:18:40 GMT -5
My typical I'm not a scout disclaimer, but I said last year I thought Moncada was an outfielder long term and I don't think I've seen anything this year that would change me off that opinion. He has infield "tools", so I'm ok with them keeping him in the infield for now but I think he'd be better off using his speed and his arm in the outfield.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2016 15:37:37 GMT -5
From 108 Stitches today
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Post by redsox1534 on Jul 25, 2016 19:15:30 GMT -5
I like some of your points. Devers to 1b moncada to 3b. But one thing I don't agree with is devers being ready mybe to compete late next year. He's having a great last what 6-8 weeks? After struggling bad. He's young has lots of growing pains still to come and as much as I love him and believe in him he's a ways away. He should be in double a next year and mybe at some point get a taste of aaa next year. So at best mid 2018 we should expect to see him. I'd say 2019 is realistic to see him everday.
Moncada on the other hand could play right now. He still got things that he's working on but by next year if not the start then midway he wI'll be in the majors he's just so good. I hope he develops 30 hr power but I'm not holding my breath year I think he is likely a 20 hr guy. By the time both these guys are playing the mlb together pedroia could be the odd man out which presents a 1000 scenarios.
I wouldnt trade moncada but the rigt hitter I'd consider trading moncada for due to him lacking big power. If i could get a young star who can replace Papi.
Like a Trout, Harper, Stanton, Schawrbar
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 25, 2016 19:47:04 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I'd be very surprised if Devers actually winds up with the Red Sox. I do anticipate he will be traded, probably this winter or next trade deadline. I can see Dombrowski considering Devers to be surplus with Moncada winding up at 3b.
But honestly I don't see Devers as surplus. I think he has an all-star caliber power bat, the kind of LH power, that the Red Sox aren't particularly deep in.
Personally, Moncada is my 3b next year by mid-season if not by May. Travis Shaw would be trade bait, and Sandoval (yuck!) would be a placeholder until Moncada pushes him aside.
Eventually Devers, if by some miracle he's still in the organization, could wind up at 1b or even DH if Moncada is excelling at 3b defensively. I'm thinking that Devers is pushing his way up by mid 2018, so the Sox could have Sam Travis at 1b by then and Hanley Ramirez DHing. In that scenario, the Sox have a trade possibility at their disposal.
They could deal Devers, or determine that his ceiling is high enough to dislodge the steady Sam Travis and send him packing in a deal, or push him aside to DH if Hanley is in steep decline.
Of course, muddying up the waters is my belief that Edwin Encarnacion will be signed to DH for the next four seasons.
Devers could wind up at 3b, with Travis at 1b, Encarnacion DHing and Ramirez nearing the end of his contract.
At this point Moncada could get moved to CF and JBJ becomes a major trade candidate. At some point the Sox have to think about approaching Betts and Bogaerts with contract extensions. Their youth and skills blend makes them candidates for the Sox to spend their big $ on. Bradley is less likely to be extended, although if Mookie isn't, Bradley has the arm and bat to shift over to RF if need be, but I would anticipate that the Sox actually have a better shot at Betts re-signing than Bradley.
Maybe by 2019 Sam Travis is good trade bait which allows Devers to slide over to 1b with Moncada remaining at 3b. Otherwise, JBJ nearing the end of his deal, becomes trade bait with Travis remaining at 1b, Devers remaining at 3b, and Moncada sliding over to CF, but unfortunately I don't think Devers will be long for this organization.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 25, 2016 19:50:54 GMT -5
I like some of your points. Devers to 1b moncada to 3b. But one thing I don't agree with is devers being ready mybe to compete late next year. He's having a great last what 6-8 weeks? After struggling bad. He's young has lots of growing pains still to come and as much as I love him and believe in him he's a ways away. He should be in double a next year and mybe at some point get a taste of aaa next year. So at best mid 2018 we should expect to see him. I'd say 2019 is realistic to see him everday. Moncada on the other hand could play right now. He still got things that he's working on but by next year if not the start then midway he wI'll be in the majors he's just so good. I hope he develops 30 hr power but I'm not holding my breath year I think he is likely a 20 hr guy. By the time both these guys are playing the mlb together pedroia could be the odd man out which presents a 1000 scenarios. I wouldnt trade moncada but the rigt hitter I'd consider trading moncada for due to him lacking big power. If i could get a young star who can replace Papi. Like a Trout, Harper, Stanton, Schawrbar Does he lack big power? I know I've read that they think he's a 15 - 20 homer guy, but he's starting to show some big power in AA. I'm not convinced that he's not a 25 - 30 home run guy with 30 plus steals speed, who can hit, and is disciplined at the plate. That's a helluva combo.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Jul 25, 2016 20:04:34 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to move Moncada around. Despite Sandoval and his contract, only Shaw stands in Moncada's way at 3B. And as mentioned earlier in the thread, he's not really standing in the way. On the plus side, both players allow you to give Moncada the time he needs to adjust to 3B and better hitters. If that's earlier than expected, he comes up to take his rightful place and some mix of Sandoval, Shaw, and Ramirez man 1B and DH.
And that's where the issue lies in my opinion, at 1B, though likely in two years. By 2018 you may have these three plus Travis vying for ABs at two positions, all blocking Devers. But in two years a lot of things can sort themselves out. And if Devers is pushing the issue at the age of 21, they will figure out how to make room for him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 25, 2016 20:06:54 GMT -5
There's also another possibility.
Pedroia could get injured enough to the point that he's either a shell of what he is by the time Devers would be ready.
I hope that doesn't happen but Moncada could ultimately wind up at 2b as well with Devers at his natural position, 3b, and the Killer Bs outfield intact. What happens after 2021 is anybody's guess. I'd hope by then we'd have other great prospects knocking down the door.
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fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 26, 2016 2:38:23 GMT -5
our lineup next year should be
CF-JB 2ND-Pedy RF-Betts SS-Bogaerts 1ST-Hanley 3RD-Shaw C-Swihart/Vasquez DH-Pablo/Travis LF-Benintendi
if for what ever reason Pablo fails and Moncada is ready you stick him at DH and let him focus on hitting for a few months with Sam Travis and work them into the field backing up Pedy, Shaw and Hanley. I really hope JF moves the lineup around and gets Mookie to the 3rd spot and JBJR to 1st. oh and if you didn't know by know.....Devers won't be playing on the Red Sox unless Shaw gets a season ending injury. Im pretty sure even if that happened Moncada or Pablo would be at 3rd and the other at DH.
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Post by scarr0214 on Jul 26, 2016 6:04:10 GMT -5
Personally, I would definitely go with Moncada at 3B and Devers at 1B if you plan on keeping both guys, which I would. Moncada's athleticism makes him a candidate to someday be an incredible defender at third, while Devers still needs to fill out a little bit and as that happens he'll inevitably slow down.
I think at this point we've invested way too many assets into improving our pitching staff as is to consider moving any more significant prospects. I would move Shaw way before any top 10 prospect.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2016 6:13:12 GMT -5
Mookie to CF, Moncada to RF, Devers to 3B, JBJ for a stud pitcher.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 26, 2016 6:24:31 GMT -5
devers is at least 2 years away. He has not faced advanced pitching yet. moncada is at double a and doing well. But is he ready for big league pitching by next year. JBR struggled for 2 years before he found his groove. So how close are either one of these guys. Both appear to be good hitters and good athletes. But we already have a team that can hit. Both have defensive short comings that may get better. Prospects or suspects. We will see.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2016 7:29:50 GMT -5
There isw good logic to Eric's proposals but a couple of issues come to mind. First, how soon will Devers be ready? He is only 19 and it took him a while to figure it out this year. He probably is about ready to go to AA but that is a big jump. I can't see him ready for the majors before 2018, if then.
Putting Moncada at 1B makes some sense, especially if he is to be Pedroia's successor but it seems fairly obvious that the Sox need a defensive upgrade at 3B. Shaw is better defensively at 1B.
I would be reluctant to also put Moncada in the outfield. Remember what happened to Bogaerts when he suddenly was shifted to 3B? It's a lot to ask for a player to shift to one other position and a whole lot more to try to have him learn two positions.
One other point, why is there so much interest in trading JBJ? He is one of the best CFs in the game now, both defensively and offensively. The Sox have him for four more years. There is no basis for believing that any of the Sox prospects would be better than him. Why screw with a good thing?
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Post by barney27 on Jul 26, 2016 7:58:22 GMT -5
trade moncada, marreoro, henry o and roenis to white sox for sales and a prospect. loosens up a couple of pitchers who have seemed to have fallen off the radar from spring training a middle infielder who has played in the majors and a major prospect. the 2 pitchers have pitched in the majors and could sort of replace sales. the middle infielder backs up Anderson at short.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 26, 2016 8:28:56 GMT -5
to make room for devers and moncada the sox have to make a trade to free up spots. right now 2nd ,ss, center and right are blocked with young players of all star level. catcher is blocked with 2 young quality looking kids, plus leon. shaw plays 1st and 3rd at a major league level. maybe not a star. travis and longhi both look like potential major league 1st basemen. Andrew b looks like he is ahead in the left field spot. 3rd base and possibly left are all that's left, maybe. They also have in their top 20 prospect list 3 infielders who have played both short and 3rd. you keep both devers and moncada and you trade in the next 2 years some of the players listed above them. Or you trade one or both for something they do not seem to have quality young pitching. But I do not think any of this will happen this year or next unless somebody like trout or sales becomes available. Hopefully Dave D does not trade away the farm system and not constantly replace with new quality young players.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Jul 26, 2016 10:23:21 GMT -5
trade moncada, marreoro, henry o and roenis to white sox for sales and a prospect. loosens up a couple of pitchers who have seemed to have fallen off the radar from spring training a middle infielder who has played in the majors and a major prospect. the 2 pitchers have pitched in the majors and could sort of replace sales. the middle infielder backs up Anderson at short. They'll want Rodriguez or Pomeranz as well. They'll probably want Swihart as well. I wish they would take your offer, but I don't see it being enough.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 26, 2016 11:06:06 GMT -5
I think Moncada & Benintendi both make the team next year. I think Moncada plays 1B & Benintendi plays LF, Hanley is the DH & Shaw stays at 3B. Panda stays on the bench, 3B/1B/DH. Devers gets to AA. Sam Travis hits his way onto the team by July. Devers gets to AAA in 2018 & Shaw becomes trade bait at the deadline to make room for him.
August 2018 C- Vazquez 1B- Moncada 2B- Pedroia 3B - Devers SS- Bogaerts LF- Benintendi CF- JBJ RF- Betts DH- Hanley
Bench
Swihart Travis Panda Holt
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2016 11:30:57 GMT -5
trade moncada, marreoro, henry o and roenis to white sox for sales and a prospect. loosens up a couple of pitchers who have seemed to have fallen off the radar from spring training a middle infielder who has played in the majors and a major prospect. the 2 pitchers have pitched in the majors and could sort of replace sales. the middle infielder backs up Anderson at short. uhhhhhhh
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