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Making Room for Moncada and Devers
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2016 11:48:58 GMT -5
I have not seen much of Moncada, just a few videos, but regarding a move to 1B:
A) isn't he a little short? Not prohibitively, but just below typical height? B) isn't it a waste of his athleticism? If he is a guy playing second and considerd reasonable at third or in OF, first serms like an odd place for him.
Hanley's been good, and I like him there for one more year. Maybe Travis comes back from his knee injury strong and slots in in 2018, or they get someone else. And eventually maybe Devers goes there. But... as good as Devers has been of late, and as good as he may be, if there is any prospect I'd be actively shopping for a significant upgrade, it's him.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 26, 2016 11:54:14 GMT -5
Isn't this whole point based on the supposition that Moncada and Devers would be equally good at third? I don't think that is a given. Accordingly, don't you want your strongest defensive players at the most important defensive positions or am I missing something here? The drop off from Moncada to Devers at third is greater than the improvement of Moncada from Devers at first.
For example, the Red Sox could play Xander at first and Hanley at short, and both would be on the infield and Xander would be an exceptional first baseman. But since first baseman's role is more limited, Xander's range, arm, instincts, ect would be wasted, whereas Hanley's defensive limitations at short would be exposed. By the same token, Ozzie Smith could have been the greatest defensive first baseman in history, but that would have been less valuable to the Cards than him being so much better than every other short stop.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 26, 2016 12:02:55 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to move Moncada around. Despite Sandoval and his contract, only Shaw stands in Moncada's way at 3B. And as mentioned earlier in the thread, he's not really standing in the way. On the plus side, both players allow you to give Moncada the time he needs to adjust to 3B and better hitters. If that's earlier than expected, he comes up to take his rightful place and some mix of Sandoval, Shaw, and Ramirez man 1B and DH. And that's where the issue lies in my opinion, at 1B, though likely in two years. By 2018 you may have these three plus Travis vying for ABs at two positions, all blocking Devers. But in two years a lot of things can sort themselves out. And if Devers is pushing the issue at the age of 21, they will figure out how to make room for him. I agree that the key point is that Devers' bat, if it is as advertised, will play. He's hitting well, very age-advanced, at high A, despite having (largely BABIP-bad-luck-driven) trouble for the first half of the year. He's also doing well in a terrible offensive environment, without the lineup around him that Moncada, Benintendi, and Dubon had. He's getting close to being a lock to start 2017 in Portland. That means he's probably two years away, possibly less. Sandoval's contract is dead weight, but Hanley has played himself into viability. His contract could theoretically be moved, if there were a viable 1b alternative. Shaw is a solid player, probably a 3-WAR guy (if he goes on another hot streak, maybe 4) who is above-average at 3b. He has value. Sam Travis is a total unknown right now. If Moncada shows he's ready next year at 3b, Shaw can be moved, either in trade or to 1b. Hanley can DH, where he hits very well. By the time Devers is ready, there's almost guaranteed to be sufficient attrition to make room for him.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2016 12:08:08 GMT -5
Isn't this whole point based on the supposition that Moncada and Devers would be equally good at third? I don't think that is a given. Accordingly, don't you want your strongest defensive players at the most important defensive positions or am I missing something here? The drop off from Moncada to Devers at third is greater than the improvement of Moncada from Devers at first. For example, the Red Sox could play Xander at first and Hanley at short, and both would be on the infield and Xander would be an exceptional first baseman. But since first baseman's role is more limited, Xander's range, arm, instincts, ect would be wasted, whereas Hanley's defensive limitations at short would be exposed. By the same token, Ozzie Smith could have been the greatest defensive first baseman in history, but that would have been less valuable to the Cards than him being so much better than every other short stop. I don't think you can assume that Moncada would be as good at 3B as Devers is, but I get your point. I think that Moncada's speed is wasted at 3B (and 1B of course), but I'm not that concerned with who plays where as long as they're not traded.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 26, 2016 21:03:13 GMT -5
I agree with this with JBJ being the most likely candidate considering he has the most service time. All of these young guys will become expensive via arb and FA before you know it. If Devers continues his development at 3B, you may be looking at Benintendi and Moncada both in the OF. From what I've heard though, Devers most likely landing spot is 1B. Strictly regarding arbitration the Sox should never be concerned with that, ever. If I was DDo I would find out which of the Killer B's is most adverse to risk and attempt to sign that player first to the most team friendly deal possible making it at least possible to extend all three. I assume we'll at least extend 2 of the 3. If for whatever reason we are not contending during one of these players respective 5th season, we have to explore what there value could be in that market. That said, its more likely each of these players spend at least their first 6 seasons with us. Shaw is more valuable to others teams, because he has a good bat can play 1,3 and LF adequately and has 4.5 more years left before FA, than he would be to us as a 10th player. In fact he's the most tradable positional player we have and just maybe why we have A. Hill on board. But then again the best time to trade Shaw may just be next years trade deadline when Moncada should be likely to take over 3rd base which is in fact the position they just moved him to. This is of course heavily, pun fully intended, dependent on if the Sox can move the imoveable incredible Bulk. I'm sure the Sox are likely to attempt to have him build some value back by starting with him on the roster next season and moving him as early as they can. The news you are hearing on Devers appears to be at least a year old as the news has been for a while now that he's improved alot, takes instruction well and works very hard on his defense.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 26, 2016 21:19:36 GMT -5
Mookie to CF, Moncada to RF, Devers to 3B, JBJ for a stud pitcher. So in this situation how does any of it work in an actual timeline? Devers is yrs away and likely will struggle for a year or two before finding his stride. Moncada while much closer cannot be counted on to produce well right out of the gate. Trading JBJ makes no sense until at least one of the those 2 items happen and by then he won't have the value by himself to trade for a stud pitcher.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2016 21:47:24 GMT -5
Mookie to CF, Moncada to RF, Devers to 3B, JBJ for a stud pitcher. So in this situation how does any of it work in an actual timeline? Devers is yrs away and likely will struggle for a year or two before finding his stride. Moncada while much closer cannot be counted on to produce well right out of the gate. Trading JBJ makes no sense until at least one of the those 2 items happen and by then he won't have the value by himself to trade for a stud pitcher. No, there is no timeline. It's what I'd aim towards doing, before I declare that a prospect is redundant and blocked so he has to be traded.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 26, 2016 21:52:40 GMT -5
I agree with this with JBJ being the most likely candidate considering he has the most service time. All of these young guys will become expensive via arb and FA before you know it. If Devers continues his development at 3B, you may be looking at Benintendi and Moncada both in the OF. From what I've heard though, Devers most likely landing spot is 1B. Strictly regarding arbitration the Sox should never be concerned with that, ever. If I was DDo I would find out which of the Killer B's is most adverse to risk and attempt to sign that player first to the most team friendly deal possible making it at least possible to extend all three. I assume we'll at least extend 2 of the 3. If for whatever reason we are not contending during one of these players respective 5th season, we have to explore what there value could be in that market. That said, its more likely each of these players spend at least their first 6 seasons with us. Shaw is more valuable to others teams, because he has a good bat can play 1,3 and LF adequately and has 4.5 more years left before FA, than he would be to us as a 10th player. In fact he's the most tradable positional player we have and just maybe why we have A. Hill on board. But then again the best time to trade Shaw may just be next years trade deadline when Moncada should be likely to take over 3rd base which is in fact the position they just moved him to. This is of course heavily, pun fully intended, dependent on if the Sox can move the imoveable incredible Bulk. I'm sure the Sox are likely to attempt to have him build some value back by starting with him on the roster next season and moving him as early as they can. The news you are hearing on Devers appears to be at least a year old as the news has been for a while now that he's improved alot, takes instruction well and works very hard on his defense. I like the extension approach; it also sets an "internal" benchmark. Ideally they extend all three, and if the right offer comes along, and they have a viable internal replacement, possibly trade JBJ, with Mookie sliding to center. Moncada to RF and Devers when ready to 3b. Bradley Jr (who I'd be happy to see them keep) could theoretically return a young TOR starter+. Or, if he's destined to leave as a Boras client, trade him in arb with at least a year, and he'll still get you a good return. Of course, the trick will be getting to that point with the pitching.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 27, 2016 7:06:50 GMT -5
The only way you have a real logjam that necessitates moving one of Devers/Moncada to 1B is if, (a) two years from now, all of Moncada, Devers, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Bradley, Betts and Benintendi are (b) healthy and (c) look like star-level players (at least 3+ WAR each) and (d) that statement remains true for a sustained period of time (a couple months or more). The odds of all that happening are pretty low, and it seems like a bad idea to preemptively and materially affect Moncada's development based on those odds. Even if all those statements are true, the solution is to trade one of the aforementioned names if and when all those conditions are met. Moncada loses a ton of his value as a first baseman, even if you assume he makes up some of it with his defense. Same reason you trade one of Vazquez/Swihart rather than making Swihart a LF-only guy (I'll note that Eric was generally against moving Swihart to LF/1B). In a vacuum your logic is true, but I don't think it plays out as well in the real world as it does on paper. First of all, Swithart and Moncada are on different levels so that makes a lot of difference. Secondly, you can't just assume the perfect trades and free agents are available to fulfill your plan. Thirdly, a great player is a great player regardless of position. So what if Mookie would have more value doing what he's doing as a second baseman vs in right field. Same with Moncada at first or second or third or where ever. If he's going to be the offensive player we think he is then he plays anywhere and when he does he will be one hell of a valuable player and one that you probably can't replace. What do we expect from him with the bat? Or what can we project as a possibility with him that even makes this conversation worth having? If he hits .270/.350/.480 with 20-30hrs and 30 steals, how many first basemen can do that even taking the steals out of it? I think it's time to take a gander at what's being run out at first base these days.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 27, 2016 7:13:12 GMT -5
I don't want to quote the full post but I wanted to comment on extending Betts and Bogaerts. Obviously, they would love to tie them up at some point before they hit free agency, but they are in a spot where they need to take advantage of their minimum salaries. Im not giving an opinion on what they should do just commenting on their situation. They need to weigh a lot of things with regards to timing, as once they are extended, they go from young cheap players to young expensive ones. That affects your roster construction quite a bit and takes away from having the young stud.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 27, 2016 7:17:54 GMT -5
It's way too early to worry about where Devers fits. All they need to know at this point is that he's not blocked so he's not necessarily surplus so they should be cautious about moving him. He's not a Guerra or Margot that probably couldn't crack the lineup.
Beyond that, he's 19 in A ball so we shouldn't be planning for his arrival like its a forgone conclusion. If he's ever raking in AA, then we can have that discussion.
Moncada and Benintendi are both raking in AA and getting work at new positions that the MLB club needs help at.
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fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 28, 2016 2:18:01 GMT -5
I think Moncada & Benintendi both make the team next year. I think Moncada plays 1B & Benintendi plays LF, Hanley is the DH & Shaw stays at 3B. Panda stays on the bench, 3B/1B/DH. Devers gets to AA. Sam Travis hits his way onto the team by July. Devers gets to AAA in 2018 & Shaw becomes trade bait at the deadline to make room for him. August 2018 C- Vazquez 1B- Moncada 2B- Pedroia 3B - Devers SS- Bogaerts LF- Benintendi CF- JBJ RF- Betts DH- Hanley Bench Swihart Travis Panda Holt So you're trying to predict the lineup 2 years from now.......HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA start with April 2017 which you will still get wrong.
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fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 28, 2016 2:22:19 GMT -5
lineup beginning of next season should be
JBJR Pedy Betts Bogaerts Hanley Shaw Swihart Panda Benintendi
Thats what i predict.
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fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 28, 2016 2:23:53 GMT -5
dont rush up Moncada or Devers. Let them force there way in. I see Pedy sliding to DH kicking Panda to role player and Moncada playing 2nd with X-man fighting with the astros for the best middle infield of all time lol
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 28, 2016 7:20:31 GMT -5
Why would you slide Pedey to DH? His greatest value comes from his incredible defense. Once Papi is gone they will use DH to give guys rests. Hanley might get most of the time there but he's actually very good at first base. I think it's used to avoid guys getting run down too much in the field.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2016 8:03:11 GMT -5
Why would you slide Pedey to DH? His greatest value comes from his incredible defense. Once Papi is gone they will use DH to give guys rests. Hanley might get most of the time there but he's actually very good at first base. I think it's used to avoid guys getting run down too much in the field. I think they'll sign Encarnacion. They probably figure they're going to lose a lot of offense with him gone. The short-term issue is that when next season starts, if they don't get Encarnacion, you likely have Ramirez sliding into the DH role, Shaw moving back to 1b, and Sandoval occupying 3b. In that scenario the offensive drop off will be pretty big, essentially replacing Ortiz with Sandoval. In that scenario you hope that Sam Travis is ready to play 1b rather quickly and/or you hope that Moncada can transition and make the jump to 3b. Honestly, both could be ready by June and Shaw could become trade bait at the 2017 trade deadline. But for two months the offense takes a pretty big hit, and even in June when one or the other or both are ready, they might not take the league by storm right away. I would think both would be pretty good in 2018, but we're talking somewhere between 2 months to a year of major offensive dropoff. That's why I think the Sox will sign Encarnacion to DH and give up their first pick in what's supposed to be a pretty strong draft. I really hope they don't do that, but I suspect they will. If they do, then once Moncada is ready the Travises become trade bait I would think, or perhaps Hanley could even be sent packing if the Sox provide enough cash.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2016 8:04:48 GMT -5
dont rush up Moncada or Devers. Let them force there way in. I see Pedy sliding to DH kicking Panda to role player and Moncada playing 2nd with X-man fighting with the astros for the best middle infield of all time lol DHing Pedroia makes no sense whatsoever. A lot of his value comes from being a strong defensive 2b. You don't make a guy like that a DH. He doesn't hit with the power that you'd want from a DH and you'd be totally devaluing him as a player.
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fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 28, 2016 14:16:53 GMT -5
dont rush up Moncada or Devers. Let them force there way in. I see Pedy sliding to DH kicking Panda to role player and Moncada playing 2nd with X-man fighting with the astros for the best middle infield of all time lol DHing Pedroia makes no sense whatsoever. A lot of his value comes from being a strong defensive 2b. You don't make a guy like that a DH. He doesn't hit with the power that you'd want from a DH and you'd be totally devaluing him as a player. I only said that because i wanna see X-man and Moncada in the middle IF for the next decade.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 29, 2016 7:28:16 GMT -5
I agree beni makes the team next year and has a good chance to start. He is a center fielder and can play like ellsbury did a few years back in left. Moncada is a good athlete but not a great fielder. You are asking a lot of a young palyer to come to the bigs and play a position he has never played. Also the sox do not need hitting as much as they need to play defense. Shaw or travis play excellent d. hanley to dh. If moncada shows he can play 3rd or 1st I say ok, but that may be at least 2 years.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 29, 2016 9:49:27 GMT -5
I think Moncada & Benintendi both make the team next year. I think Moncada plays 1B & Benintendi plays LF, Hanley is the DH & Shaw stays at 3B. Panda stays on the bench, 3B/1B/DH. Devers gets to AA. Sam Travis hits his way onto the team by July. Devers gets to AAA in 2018 & Shaw becomes trade bait at the deadline to make room for him. August 2018 C- Vazquez 1B- Moncada 2B- Pedroia 3B - Devers SS- Bogaerts LF- Benintendi CF- JBJ RF- Betts DH- Hanley Bench Swihart Travis Panda Holt So you're trying to predict the lineup 2 years from now.......HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA start with April 2017 which you will still get wrong. I did. Read my post, again. 2017 C- Vazquez 1B- Moncada 2B- Pedroia 3B - Shaw SS- Bogaerts LF- Benintendi CF- JBJ RF- Betts DH- Hanley Bench Holt Swihart Young/(Travis-by July) Panda
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Post by justen on Jul 29, 2016 12:34:08 GMT -5
So you're trying to predict the lineup 2 years from now.......HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA start with April 2017 which you will still get wrong. I did. Read my post, again. 2017 C- Vazquez 1B- Moncada 2B- Pedroia 3B - Shaw SS- Bogaerts LF- Benintendi CF- JBJ RF- Betts DH- Hanley Bench Holt Swihart Young/(Travis-by July) Panda Doesn't Yoan look more like a potential third baseman with Shaw sliding to first? Makes a lot more sense in my opinion. He profiles there better physically and so does Shaw at 1st.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 29, 2016 13:27:44 GMT -5
Looked at moncada's stats at Portland. interesting, k's almost 40% of the time with over 100 ab's. Does that mean he is overmatched for the level? Does that still put him on the train to be in boston by next year?
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 29, 2016 13:33:30 GMT -5
minor note that Devers is Rule 5 eligible in DEC '17. So putting him the roster in Aug or Sept '17 has no roster repercussions.
But, no, I doubt Devers forces himself into the starting lineup next summer. I also doubt the Sox will have Moncada play 1B at this point or next year. Not their modus operandi with minor leaguers.
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fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 29, 2016 17:18:04 GMT -5
What if we just DH'd Moncada. Let him focus on hitting then finding a place to put him in the field? Wouldn't that make the most since then we could have Benintendi in LF and Moncada at DH.
Mookie Pedy Bogaerts Hanley Shaw Bradley Swihart Moncada Benintendi
That lineup would be fun to watch but panda will be DH next year and I'm hoping he comes back with a chip on his shoulder.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 29, 2016 19:03:04 GMT -5
What if we just DH'd Moncada. Let him focus on hitting then finding a place to put him in the field? Wouldn't that make the most since then we could have Benintendi in LF and Moncada at DH. Mookie Pedy Bogaerts Hanley Shaw Bradley Swihart Moncada Benintendi That lineup would be fun to watch but panda will be DH next year and I'm hoping he comes back with a chip on his shoulder. Only problem is that you're DHing a guy who is young and probably the best athlete on the team.
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