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Post by bighead on Jan 3, 2013 19:19:08 GMT -5
I know there are those here who dislike Keith Law's evaluations, but for all the Xander fans, he did say this in his chat today (FWIW): Tom (LA): Is Will Middlebrooks or Xander Bogaerts the better long-term option at 3B as opposed to the outfield, defensively? Klaw (1:04 PM): What if Bogaerts stays at short? That's not as unlikely today as it looked a year ago. I realize this isn't a KLaw thread but I like this answer: Ryan (MA) After watching his 2011 age-22 starts on mlb do com, I think Rubby De La Rosa has been massively underplayed as part of The Trade as has his future impact on the Red Sox. I've seen people say he is going to end up in the bullpen. There is absolutely no way. Where do you see him settling in, middle of a rotation guy? Klaw (1:52 PM) I see him as a starter too. I wonder if he's been undersold because he's not on prospect lists, so it's harder to say that "he was the Nth best prospect in LA's system" to summarize his value in a few words.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 3, 2013 20:13:44 GMT -5
If he's anything like what he was before TJ surgery - and he was already launching it at 98 mph with a lot of what I believe Mellen calls "depth" - he's going to spin a few heads on this board. Add to that the fact that his changeup was also lights out and he does have a few tools. Those two pitches alone, if he controls them, are quite good enough to do a lineup in at least a few times around. If he does add to that arsenal by refining the rest of his stuff, then he's a potential number 2 I believe, he's that good, though I still think Webster may have an even higher ceiling - one he's further away from.
I think it's rational to expect that at least one very good starter will emerge from the current pool of minor league talent. In reality that's being quite pessimistic. The Sox really helped themselves by getting serious compensation for "allowing" the Dodgers to lift that quarter billion dollar burden off their backs. There's reason to look forward to the pitching depth that should emerge over the next few years.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 4, 2013 10:16:49 GMT -5
I also think that Rubby is being undersold by penciling him in as a future reliever. I think the main reasons though are that he has two dominant pitches and has the TJ injury so recently.
Rubby is one of my absolute binkies (I know that doesn't mean much, everyone around here probably thinks highly of him). I think his stuff compares to one particular sox pitcher and I won't look silly by mentioning his name *P* cough cough. I know it's blasphemous to even compare anyone to the *P* guy, but I have a super duper special feeling about Rubby.
I would have him starting in Boston by May....
I think we need a Rubby thread, so we can stop highjacking the X thread.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 4, 2013 13:34:50 GMT -5
I also think that Rubby is being undersold by penciling him in as a future reliever. I think the main reasons though are that he has two dominant pitches and has the TJ injury so recently. Rubby is one of my absolute binkies (I know that doesn't mean much, everyone around here probably thinks highly of him). I think his stuff compares to one particular sox pitcher and I won't look silly by mentioning his name *P* cough cough. I know it's blasphemous to even compare anyone to the *P* guy, but I have a super duper special feeling about Rubby. I would have him starting in Boston by May.... I think we need a Rubby thread, so we can stop highjacking the X thread. I'd say, other than Bogaerts, I'm most interested by Rubby De La Rosa. It seems that if he's going to have himself quite the career, he needs to harness his command. And it's interesting that you mentioned Pedro. He's got great stuff like Pedro, but Pedro had control of 3 pitches and an innate intelligence that was above and beyond. I've said this all along - I hope that in spring training that Pedro takes this kid under his wing. There is so much he can teach a guy with good stuff like De La Rosa. He just needs to listen and IIRC, he is a fan of Pedro, too - so maybe there's a few lessons in there for him to be learned. I know none of this is quantifiable, but I think Pedro, even if it's for a brief time in spring training, has a lot to offer. I keep dreaming that De La Rosa will be the poor man's Pedro and Webster will become the new Derek Lowe. While I'm at it, perhaps Stephen Wright becomes the new Tim Wakefield.
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Post by larrycook on Jan 4, 2013 14:00:11 GMT -5
I also think that Rubby is being undersold by penciling him in as a future reliever. I think the main reasons though are that he has two dominant pitches and has the TJ injury so recently. Rubby is one of my absolute binkies (I know that doesn't mean much, everyone around here probably thinks highly of him). I think his stuff compares to one particular sox pitcher and I won't look silly by mentioning his name *P* cough cough. I know it's blasphemous to even compare anyone to the *P* guy, but I have a super duper special feeling about Rubby. I would have him starting in Boston by May.... I think we need a Rubby thread, so we can stop highjacking the X thread. I'd say, other than Bogaerts, I'm most interested by Rubby De La Rosa. It seems that if he's going to have himself quite the career, he needs to harness his command. And it's interesting that you mentioned Pedro. He's got great stuff like Pedro, but Pedro had control of 3 pitches and an innate intelligence that was above and beyond. I've said this all along - I hope that in spring training that Pedro takes this kid under his wing. There is so much he can teach a guy with good stuff like De La Rosa. He just needs to listen and IIRC, he is a fan of Pedro, too - so maybe there's a few lessons in there for him to be learned. I think it is very hard to be a starter with only 2 pitches, even if one is a plus pitch. However it is very possible to be a great closer with two pitches, especailly if one is a plus pitch.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 4, 2013 14:28:35 GMT -5
I guess this is where I and some of the scouts/fans differ..... I don't see Rubby as just a 2 pitch pitcher. I think his slider is a very suitable 3rd pitch. I think he simply hasn't needed it yet and if he could learn to refine it , it also could be a borderline plus pitch.
To me he doesn't simply have two pitches, one of which is "plus." I see him right now (admitedly through video) as having a plus fastball, a plus to better change and a average slider. That is a starters repetoire. If he can refine the slider, he would be a top of the rotation (#2 or #3) starter.... If he had that plus or better slider now, he'd be a future #1 (as long as he commands the fastball)......
Again, thats just my personal take, but he is one of my favorite if not my favorite current "prospect." I am probably higher on him than most. If he can stay healthy I think the sky's the limit for Rubby.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 4, 2013 15:49:24 GMT -5
And just to add.............what a great name!
I'm on board also, I can't wait to see him this spring.
I simply love our 3 young pitchers (Rubby, Webster, and Barnes), and I find it laughable when a Jim Bowden throws a Barnes in as an add-on for picking up Upton.
Everyone on this board will be watching extremely carefully what those 3, especially, do on their day to pitch.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 4, 2013 22:44:08 GMT -5
I also think that Rubby is being undersold by penciling him in as a future reliever. I think the main reasons though are that he has two dominant pitches and has the TJ injury so recently. Rubby is one of my absolute binkies (I know that doesn't mean much, everyone around here probably thinks highly of him). I think his stuff compares to one particular sox pitcher and I won't look silly by mentioning his name *P* cough cough. I know it's blasphemous to even compare anyone to the *P* guy, but I have a super duper special feeling about Rubby. I would have him starting in Boston by May.... I think we need a Rubby thread, so we can stop highjacking the X thread. I'd say, other than Bogaerts, I'm most interested by Rubby De La Rosa. It seems that if he's going to have himself quite the career, he needs to harness his command. And it's interesting that you mentioned Pedro. He's got great stuff like Pedro, but Pedro had control of 3 pitches and an innate intelligence that was above and beyond. I've said this all along - I hope that in spring training that Pedro takes this kid under his wing. There is so much he can teach a guy with good stuff like De La Rosa. He just needs to listen and IIRC, he is a fan of Pedro, too - so maybe there's a few lessons in there for him to be learned. I think it is very hard to be a starter with only 2 pitches, even if one is a plus pitch. However it is very possible to be a great closer with two pitches, especailly if one is a plus pitch. We really do need a separate thread for Rubby. Maybe a Mod can spin some of this out... I think calling Rubby's fastball a plus pitch is selling him short. At least some scouting reports place Rubby's fastball as a plus plus pitch prior to the injury. Obviously he will need his secondary pitches to be a starter, but his plus plus fastball makes me eager to see what he can do in the rotation.
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Post by mainesox on Jan 4, 2013 23:11:36 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 4, 2013 23:44:21 GMT -5
I can't understand why BC signed Dempster and is scouting Javier Vasquez, without first looking at what he already has in Rubby.
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Post by jmei on Jan 5, 2013 0:17:03 GMT -5
Rubby is coming off Tommy John surgery and has topped out at 110.1 IP in 2010 and 100.2 IP in 2011. He will be on a fairly strict innings cap and I'd be surprised if he pitched more than 130-40 innings in 2013. He certainly will not be ready for major league action as a full-time starter coming out of Spring Training, no matter how good he looks. He may be a candidate for spot starts over the course of the season and may transition to a bullpen role in the major leagues later in the season if the Red Sox are in the pennant race and need a reliever, but it's hard to see de la Rosa playing a more significant role than that in 2013. He might be ready for a full season's worth of innings by 2014, but even that might be a stretch.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 5, 2013 7:47:26 GMT -5
Yes, it's ridiculous to compare anyone to PEDRO MARTINEZ, maybe up there with Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky as the greatest players in any sport I've seen, but just on the subject of his pinpoint control compared to Rubby's wildness: Pedro had a 3.7 BB/9 rate in the minors, Rubby has a 4.0. Not a huge difference.
Pedro had a 2.2 in the majors, tho, an outrageous improvement, including those amazing years of 1.3-1.6 in his peak. Man, any reason to go back and look at Pedro's stats in his first few years on the Sox is a good one.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 5, 2013 8:44:24 GMT -5
Rubby is coming off Tommy John surgery and has topped out at 110.1 IP in 2010 and 100.2 IP in 2011. He will be on a fairly strict innings cap and I'd be surprised if he pitched more than 130-40 innings in 2013. He certainly will not be ready for major league action as a full-time starter coming out of Spring Training, no matter how good he looks. He may be a candidate for spot starts over the course of the season and may transition to a bullpen role in the major leagues later in the season if the Red Sox are in the pennant race and need a reliever, but it's hard to see de la Rosa playing a more significant role than that in 2013. He might be ready for a full season's worth of innings by 2014, but even that might be a stretch. The calm voice of reason in the hyperbolic din.....
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Post by elguapo on Jan 5, 2013 10:27:39 GMT -5
It's not hyperbole when talking about De La Rosa's potential. Yes, because of the injury and lost time he's unlikely to be able to fully break out in 2013. But if he can lay the health/recovery questions to rest, he's our #1 pitching prospect/post-prospect and on the cusp of being a top of the rotation starter. He's already had some major league success as a starter.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 5, 2013 11:54:30 GMT -5
Taking his probable limit this season, the best case scenario for Rubby is to 1) be healthy the whole season; 2) throw a quality 130 innings in AAA, and 3) come up in September start 2 or 3 games....and blow us away.
His potential is outstanding, but I see him as part of the rotation in 2014, and then only be able to give us 170 innings top.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 5, 2013 17:35:55 GMT -5
Taking his probable limit this season, the best case scenario for Rubby is to 1) be healthy the whole season; 2) throw a quality 130 innings in AAA, and 3) come up in September start 2 or 3 games....and blow us away. His potential is outstanding, but I see him as part of the rotation in 2014, and then only be able to give us 170 innings top. Time will tell Steve. As Sox fans, and particularly as long time sox prospect fans (as distinct from Soxprospects), we have had our share of emotional highs and lows. I can remember year after year fantasizing about this guy or that only to find out that he didn't make it, had injury issues or was traded. I guess that is the life of any ardent fan of his baseball team. With age, and I have goodly mileage, I have become more guarded...maybe to protect myself from the 'prospect' of letdown. I would rather have someone exceed my lowered expectations than go the other way.
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Post by larrycook on Jan 7, 2013 14:12:21 GMT -5
Rubby is coming off Tommy John surgery and has topped out at 110.1 IP in 2010 and 100.2 IP in 2011 He may be a candidate for spot starts over the course of the season and may transition to a bullpen role in the major leagues later in the season if the Red Sox are in the pennant race and need a reliever, . Rubby seems like a perfect candidate to take over as closer. I don;t know if Hanrahan has the command to be successful in the American League East, But if Rubby shows command at Pawtucket, his stuff is just as electric as anybody else we will have in Boston.
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Post by mainesox on Jan 7, 2013 15:08:57 GMT -5
Rubby seems like a perfect candidate to take over as closer. I don;t know if Hanrahan has the command to be successful in the American League East, But if Rubby shows command at Pawtucket, his stuff is just as electric as anybody else we will have in Boston. If Rubby shows command in Pawtucket he's not going to be a closer.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 7, 2013 15:20:15 GMT -5
He shouldn't be a reliever until he actually fails as a starter.
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Post by tjb21 on Jan 7, 2013 15:53:03 GMT -5
He shouldn't be a reliever until he actually fails as a starter. This and only this.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 9, 2013 13:04:31 GMT -5
Rubby De La Rosa said yesterday goal is to be the best pitcher in MLB. Has worked with brother of fmr best pitcher in MLB, Ramon Martinez- Rob Bradford
At least he's setting the bar high.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 9, 2013 13:58:59 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 9, 2013 17:49:54 GMT -5
I mentioned in a post a while back that I'd watched a Dodger's game in 2011 after they brought him up. Pure luck, and I had no idea who he was. Didn't take but a few innings to send me scurrying to the nearest digital device to find out more. The batters had my complete sympathy as he made them look like the rookies, so devastating was his stuff. Completely over-matched, probably because like me they has no clue about the guy. That said, there are a few pitchers who can get you out even when you know what's coming and even though it's in the strike zone. Not many, just a few. I'm not a pro scout and this was on TV, but that's how he came across.
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Post by mantush on Jan 9, 2013 22:10:37 GMT -5
Have the Red Sox ever had three better pitching prospects (de la Rosa, Barnes, Webster) that project to be MLB starters in their system at one time?
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Post by jmei on Jan 9, 2013 23:03:12 GMT -5
In the 2007-08 offseason, Buchholz, Bowden, and Masterson were a pretty highly rated combo. In February 2008, Baseball America had Buchholz ranked 4, Masterson at 64, and Bowden at 94. That's probably on par with the top three this season, since Buchholz was more highly rated than any of the 2013 guys, which makes up for Masterson and Bowden probably being weaker prospects than de la Rosa and Webster.
Also, don't forget Lester, Papelbon (then a starter), and Anibal Sanchez in 2005-06. BA had Lester at 22, Papelbon at 37, and Sanchez (traded to the Marlins that offseason) at 40 in their 2006 rankings.
(Sidenote: the farm system had a crazy amount of talent after the 2005 draft. Prominent names include (listed in order of their SP.com 2005 year-end rank): Papelbon, Lester, Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Delcarmen, Pedroia, Shoppach, David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz, and Kevin Youkilis.)
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