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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2013 15:31:33 GMT -5
Wouldn't a lack of FB command lower the floor as opposed to the ceiling? My reasoning is that FB command is easier to develop than velocity and/or movement.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 28, 2013 15:56:30 GMT -5
Wouldn't a lack of FB command lower the floor as opposed to the ceiling? My reasoning is that FB command is easier to develop than velocity and/or movement. Probably both. Was thinking more along the lines of what happens to closers who can't control the fastball, etc. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2013 16:18:56 GMT -5
In general I agree with the basic idea that major league pitchers who can't command the fastball are worthless, no matter how good their stuff, while pitchers who have good command might be able to help you. I'll still take Frank Montas though and hope he develops command over some kid with great command who throws 87 and I think you would too  . When it comes to RDLR vs. Barnes I can see the argument for either. Barnes if he stays healthy is very likely to be a average to slightly above average pitcher because of his command. But RDLR could be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but is also more likely than Barnes to end up as a reliever. Would that be a fair analysis of the situation? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 28, 2013 20:24:02 GMT -5
If Barnes fastball and it's command is so good and that's the most important thing a starter can have, then it's more than a little concerning that he's projected to be a mid-rotation guy. That tells me he lacks the secondary offerings, most notably a change-up to be a top of the rotation starter. Not that there is anything wrong with a mid rotation starter; if I could sign up for that now with him, I would and be very happy.
For what it's worth Britton was a BA top 100 prospect in 2011 and I could have sworn Stolmy made a list or was close. The point was over-rating the shiny new toys so whether they are top 50 or top 100 doesn't really matter in this regard. Over-rating is over rating. No one is saying Barnes isn't a very good prospect. We're just comparing him to Webster and Ruby. A good new toy ranking inflation is Swihart was top 100 last in 2012. I'd argue he's the same prospect today as he was this time last year. Now he's not even in the top 100 discussion. More credit should be given to performance at AA and higher and less for performance at A ball. It's hard not to get excited about the new guy coming in and doing well though. The good news is we'll know a lot more about them all by June 1st.
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Post by mrnewengland on Mar 1, 2013 9:59:41 GMT -5
I've seen this said a few times now. I really think that as Sox fans we are letting ourselves get WAAAY too excited because of the Pedro connection and comparisons. There will never be another Pedro. |
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Post by bluechip on Mar 1, 2013 10:59:04 GMT -5
I've seen this said a few times now. I really think that as Sox fans we are letting ourselves get WAAAY too excited because of the Pedro connection and comparisons. I agree with this. There is no way we should consider Rubby De La Rosa as good as Bundy, Cole, or Jose Fernandez. There are a few other right-handed pitchers in the minors who are clearly ahead of him in my mind as well. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 1, 2013 11:01:24 GMT -5
I've seen this said a few times now. I really think that as Sox fans we are letting ourselves get WAAAY too excited because of the Pedro connection and comparisons. There will never be another Pedro. Hard not to agree with you here. Sox fans (all rabid fans of their teams) ride the emotional roller-coaster. Maybe it's the human condition. I think that we love the adrenaline rush...hope springing eternal and fantasizing about what could be.... It is fun tho...as long as we don't endure a hard landing. |
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Post by gatortough on Mar 1, 2013 15:51:14 GMT -5
I really think that as Sox fans we are letting ourselves get WAAAY too excited because of the Pedro connection and comparisons. Blasphemy! He's gonna be every bit as good as Pedro except pitch five years longer, AND he's gonna continually sign team friendly contracts a la Tom Brady. Mark it down. |
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Post by Guidas on Mar 1, 2013 16:08:38 GMT -5
I really think that as Sox fans we are letting ourselves get WAAAY too excited because of the Pedro connection and comparisons. Blasphemy! He's gonna be every bit as good as Pedro except pitch five years longer, AND he's gonna continually sign team friendly contracts a la Tom Brady. Mark it down. And a snappy dresser. |
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Post by remember04 on Mar 1, 2013 16:10:48 GMT -5
I really think that as Sox fans we are letting ourselves get WAAAY too excited because of the Pedro connection and comparisons. Blasphemy! He's gonna be every bit as good as Pedro except pitch five years longer, AND he's gonna continually sign team friendly contracts a la Tom Brady. Mark it down. How about that perpetual $4 million option that Wakefield had? Maybe one of those? |
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Post by bentossaurus on Mar 1, 2013 17:17:09 GMT -5
$4 million?!? The greedy b*stard! League minimum and not a cent more.
Ok, maybe an incentive for every Cy Young he gets.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 1, 2013 17:56:47 GMT -5
When it comes to RDLR vs. Barnes I can see the argument for either. Barnes if he stays healthy is very likely to be a average to slightly above average pitcher because of his command. But RDLR could be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but is also more likely than Barnes to end up as a reliever.Would that be a fair analysis of the situation? Depends on what you mean by "on of the best". Top five, ie an ace? No, not gonna happen. Top 30, ie a good #2? Sure, it's possible. |
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Mar 1, 2013 20:41:12 GMT -5
rubby just threw a pie in the face or
Pittsburg appears pie eyed or
The pirates bats are made of rubby...no?
Remember that time with a 3 and 2 count you shook of the sign three times then threw a filthy change for strike three?
Rubby, that was awesome!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Mar 1, 2013 22:44:10 GMT -5
Kid looked filthy. Farrell said Portland or Pawtucket? WTF?? He pitched in the bigs last year. Should be AAA 75-80 pitches, then 90-100, and maybe let him get an out or two after he hits a hundred once in a while.
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Mar 1, 2013 23:38:35 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 2, 2013 7:39:48 GMT -5
This is a case where it's right to put him in AAA. Is he ready for the majors? Yes. If he wasn't limited in the number of innings, it'd be different, but he's probably only gong to throw 140-150, max. This kid needs to start so AAA is the best place to build back up and keep the innings down. No reason, if an aged properly, he can't start in Boston the last couple months.
That last AB was great. The 2-2 fastball was probably strike 3 on its own, if he were a vet. Looked to be a beauty right at the knees. So what does he do? Comes back with a dirty change up on the inside corner with great down and in action. If consistent that's a Plus pitch. It's also what separates him from Barnes at this point. It's going to be tough form Barnes to start without even an average change up and right now he's not close to that. Hopefully, he shows that this year.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 2, 2013 8:38:24 GMT -5
I assume that's just Farrell lowering expectations so reporters give up on De La Rosa making the big club. He's too advanced for AA and too valuable to risk in the wintry north rather than the sunny climes of Southern New England.
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Post by Chris Mellen on Mar 2, 2013 12:16:09 GMT -5
It's also what separates him from Barnes at this point. It's going to be tough form Barnes to start without even an average change up and right now he's not close to that. Hopefully, he shows that this year. I'm curious and am not trying to come across pointed or anything like that: Have you seen Matt Barnes' changeup? This is what I have in his SoxProspects scouting report based on my first-hand scouting and conversations with scouts. This is what I saw from the changeup when scouting Barnes in Salem last season. When I worked on the Baseball Prospectus Red Sox Top 10 with Jason Parks, this is what we had for Barnes' stuff. I'm very interested if you have seen something different out of Barnes' changeup. From what I saw of it in 2012, it made a lot of progress from his debut at Fall Instructs in 2011. Am I way off `with the change? |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 2, 2013 12:42:59 GMT -5
Watching De La Rosa's two innings on TV yesterday and I remain very impressed with his change-up. It's just a devastating pitch as he's got the motion down so that it's difficult to distinguish from the heat. Moreover, he can make it move one way or the other as it drops so he must have a very good feel for it. I think I saw one slider but I wasn't sure about that. He's really a good-looking pitcher.
Edit: Anyone who's been on the board longer than a few months knows that I don't like absolute ratings. I just feel that at this stage, it's very hard to compare prospects in a completely rational way. This site continuously re-evaluates its rankings and that's exactly what it should do in my opinion. It's one of the reasons I stick around. Right now, I'm just excited that the team has stocked up on such quality pitching, a lot of it close to major league ready.
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Post by charliezink16 on Mar 2, 2013 20:02:42 GMT -5
I think we should all thank RDLR for lowering out expectations of Matt Barnes. Poster aren't putting all their eggs in the "Barnes needs to be an ace" basket. Barnes is going to be vastly underrated on this board throughout the season, and maybe that's not such a bad thing considering the last "potential ace", Ranaudo, hasn't fulfilled expectations.
ADD: I really like the blue stars on your avatar, oregonnorm. Makes is look legit!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 3, 2013 2:24:10 GMT -5
... ADD: I really like the blue stars on your avatar, oregonnorm. Makes is look legit! That's the illusion I'm striving for. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Mar 3, 2013 11:35:24 GMT -5
I think we should all thank RDLR for lowering out expectations of Matt Barnes. Poster aren't putting all their eggs in the "Barnes needs to be an ace" basket. Barnes is going to be vastly underrated on this board throughout the season, and maybe that's not such a bad thing considering the last "potential ace", Ranaudo, hasn't fulfilled expectations. ADD: I really like the blue stars on your avatar, oregonnorm. Makes is look legit! Ranaudo was my binky before my main man Keith Couch blew me away. 2012 was a lost year for Ranaudo, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 3, 2013 20:52:45 GMT -5
I haven't seen Barnes in person so I can't draw my own conclusion. I'm happy to ear that you saw improvement and Klaw said the same thing so that's important. It's still a below verge pitch and I see it as the key to his development. I'm no expert so I could be wrong, but it seems like a difficult pitch to develop into an above average offering. If he gets it there then ill look at him a lot differently then I do right now. To me he's a clear 3rd choice behind the other two for that and his lower competition. That's not an insult. I'm glad he's in the organization, and this year will tell a lot. Captain obvious.
I try to temper the enthusiasm on players who haven't reached AA yet.
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Post by mainesox on Mar 4, 2013 1:28:17 GMT -5
I haven't seen Barnes in person so I can't draw my own conclusion. I'm happy to ear that you saw improvement and Klaw said the same thing so that's important. It's still a below verge pitch Chris just gave you three examples of where he has said that it is an average pitch. Not below average. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 4, 2013 8:29:58 GMT -5
It appears in some people's opinion it is approaching average. That's great and encouraging. I'm pretty sure this is still a subjective opinion. If that's the case, then in my opinion I'm not at be point of there being enough evidence for me to being comfortable calling it an average pitch.
We can only draw our opinions off of the evidence we have plus past experience in reading scouting reports. Here is some reading between the lines that past with it. In his own words he called it fringe-average to average. On the BP they cumulatively gave it a grade of average. Those collaboration grades are a group consensus and whether intentional or not his grade is probably bumped slightly because of some projection due to his trend. Those grades get done infrequently so they need to last a bit. The day he saw it in Salem it was average in his opinion. Again, great news. The way the report was written makes me feel the average result is more a product of his improvement rather than major league average.
I'm not trying to be difficult but sorry for not being sold on the pitch, I'm extremely happy it's improved and during this conversation Chris and some others give me higher hopes on it. However, taking the next step with the pitch is huge for what he'll become as a pitcher at the next level. The Red Sox seem to agree as they are making it the point of emphasis for his development.
Who knows maybe he's made great progress this offseason and by the end of April it can be considered a consistent pitch. Perhaps I'm just off on what average means and I should just refer to it as a weakness in his arsenal that needs to be improved before I can see a high level of success for him as a starter at the upper levels.
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