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Whither a Mookie Extension
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Post by thursty on Aug 14, 2016 14:00:21 GMT -5
One could go on forever with the numbers, so I won't. But Mookie is on pace for 80 XBH this year; only 2 players in Red Sox history have done that at 23 years or younger.
Objectively he's been the best player for the Red Sox since he was ensconced as the starting CF in August 2014; fWAR 2014- 1.8 (in 1/3 of season) 2015 - 4.8 2016 - 7?
Among the 10 best players in the AL, arguably the top 5. Among the 2-3 best baserunners in the game.
I wrote that after the 2014 season, the #1 priority for BC was to sign him to a long-term extension (I guessed that 8/$50 might have done the trick) - well that ship has sailed.
If you're his agent, do you even take the call if you don't hear a 200 in the first sentence? I don't care; instead of frittering away prospects on overvalued pitchers, can't let Mookie get away.
And I still don't think he's figured it out yet.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 14, 2016 14:09:55 GMT -5
I seriously doubt he gets a 200m extension unless it's some sort of forever Stanton-like contract.
He's obviously a 200m player but he'll likely need to go to free agency to get it.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2016 14:10:00 GMT -5
If you're talking about an extension eating up 4 years of control, there's no way you get to $200 million, unless you're talking 10 years with no opt-outs. Even Mike Trout only got 6/144 which included 3 arb years, but not the 3rd pre-arb year, so call it 7/145 if Mookie got the same contract. He's not Mike Trout either.
edit - maybe he is. Give him a blank check to fill out.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2016 14:26:16 GMT -5
Right, to be clear, Betts has one more minimum-salaried year, and three arb years after that. He should blow past $100m on any extension that buys out free agent years, but should end up short of $200m. This offseason may be the last opportunity to get a meaningful discount. Once he starts getting arb money, there's a little less need for financial security.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 14, 2016 15:00:31 GMT -5
Some Mookie stats “@jlundbladespn: Mookie Betts is the youngest player with 3 HR & 8+ RBI in a game since Fred Lynn in 1975 (also for the Red Sox)” “@timbritton: Betts joins Michael Saunders as the only major-leaguers with 8 RBIs in a game this year. Last Red Sox with 8+ in a game: Bill Mueller, 2003.” “@ianmbrowne: The only other redsox player to have two three-homer games in the same season? Ted Williams, in 1957.”
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 14, 2016 15:08:12 GMT -5
Some Mookie stats “@jlundbladespn: Mookie Betts is the youngest player with 3 HR & 8+ RBI in a game since Fred Lynn in 1975 (also for the Red Sox)” “@timbritton: Betts joins Michael Saunders as the only major-leaguers with 8 RBIs in a game this year. Last Red Sox with 8+ in a game: Bill Mueller, 2003.” “@ianmbrowne: The only other redsox player to have two three-homer games in the same season? Ted Williams, in 1957.” I was watching the Fred Lynn game, if I remember right ,he also hit a triple that just missed going out.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 14, 2016 16:09:27 GMT -5
very tricky He is the only one of the big 3 that does not have boras for an agent. jbj and xb have scott boras. Ouch sounds expensive to me. Harper right now makes 5 mil and is up for arb for 2 more years. Who do you bench mark against? 7 yrs for 120. op yr after 5. salaries of 10,12,14,16,21,22,25. Still makes him 28 still probably in his prime for a bigger number. Is that what you are talking about.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2016 16:18:34 GMT -5
Some Mookie stats “@jlundbladespn: Mookie Betts is the youngest player with 3 HR & 8+ RBI in a game since Fred Lynn in 1975 (also for the Red Sox)” “@timbritton: Betts joins Michael Saunders as the only major-leaguers with 8 RBIs in a game this year. Last Red Sox with 8+ in a game: Bill Mueller, 2003.” “@ianmbrowne: The only other redsox player to have two three-homer games in the same season? Ted Williams, in 1957.” I was watching the Fred Lynn game, if I remember right ,he also hit a triple that just missed going out. I remember cutting that box score out of the paper.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2016 16:31:04 GMT -5
Right, to be clear, Betts has one more minimum-salaried year, and three arb years after that. He should blow past $100m on any extension that buys out free agent years, but should end up short of $200m. This offseason may be the last opportunity to get a meaningful discount. Once he starts getting arb money, there's a little less need for financial security. Which is why the Red Sox should have tried to extend both Betts and Bogaerts last off-season (no I don't know whether they tried or not, but it should have been a priority).
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2016 16:35:09 GMT -5
Right, to be clear, Betts has one more minimum-salaried year, and three arb years after that. He should blow past $100m on any extension that buys out free agent years, but should end up short of $200m. This offseason may be the last opportunity to get a meaningful discount. Once he starts getting arb money, there's a little less need for financial security. Which is why the Red Sox should have tried to extend both Betts and Bogaerts last off-season (no I don't know whether they tried or not, but it should have been a priority). I think it has been said that Mookie really has no interest in it because he doesn't really think about money so there weren't even talks. You can't extend someone who doesn't show any interest in it.
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Post by jdb on Aug 14, 2016 16:59:09 GMT -5
Any top tier young star would be crazy to sign an extension before the Harper's and Machados hit the market.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 14, 2016 17:06:03 GMT -5
10 years / 300 million. It will be cheap by the time he is done. That's what 40 WAR.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 14, 2016 17:08:46 GMT -5
Jayson Stark @jaysonst 3m3 minutes ago .@eliassports tells us Mookie Betts is the 3rd player ever to have two 3-HR games before turning 24. The others: Juan Gonzalez & Boog Powell
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 14, 2016 17:43:33 GMT -5
Right, to be clear, Betts has one more minimum-salaried year, and three arb years after that. He should blow past $100m on any extension that buys out free agent years, but should end up short of $200m. This offseason may be the last opportunity to get a meaningful discount. Once he starts getting arb money, there's a little less need for financial security. Which is why the Red Sox should have tried to extend both Betts and Bogaerts last off-season (no I don't know whether they tried or not, but it should have been a priority). Boras seems to push towards free agency, I would guess even if they tried he would have told wait. The comment was made why would these sign anything until harper and macaho sign. Probably right Boras has harper not sure who has manny
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 14, 2016 17:47:14 GMT -5
Manny is with a guy named Lozano. He will probably look at what harper does.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 14, 2016 17:56:24 GMT -5
It will be interesting how mookie,jbj, and xb play out. hanley is off after 18, Pablo is off in 19, and porcello is off in 19. Do sox plan on signing their guys and use money coming off? Do they try to sign another big ticket fa between now and when these guys want their money? Looks like lots of salary planning to me?
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Post by bluechip on Aug 14, 2016 18:34:17 GMT -5
It will be interesting how mookie,jbj, and xb play out. hanley is off after 18, Pablo is off in 19, and porcello is off in 19. Do sox plan on signing their guys and use money coming off? Do they try to sign another big ticket fa between now and when these guys want their money? Looks like lots of salary planning to me? Price also can opt out after 2018, which he might do if he bounces back in 2017 and 2018.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 14, 2016 20:32:35 GMT -5
Fifteen years, $800 quadrillion seems pretty reasonable.
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Post by giatree12 on Aug 15, 2016 5:09:32 GMT -5
Which is why the Red Sox should have tried to extend both Betts and Bogaerts last off-season (no I don't know whether they tried or not, but it should have been a priority). Boras seems to push towards free agency, I would guess even if they tried he would have told wait. The comment was made why would these sign anything until harper and macaho sign. Probably right Boras has harper not sure who has manny Unless this was an aberration, Boras got Strasburg signed before free agency. The timing, however, could mean that both Bogaerts/Bradley will not get extensions until the 2018-2019 free agency period is over. If that happens, best case scenario is getting something done that spring 2019 (assuming of course both continue to produce at about the same level, if not better). In Betts case, I am not too familiar with his agents. But at this point, I would take my chances with that and try to maximize the value for JBJ around that time if they realize it will be too expensive to keep all 3 Betts/Bogey/JBJ (similar to the patriots shipping Chandler Jones to Arizona). This, of course, is taking into account that they can move either Beni or Betts to center and find a good, cheaper (and younger) replacement for Bradley.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 15, 2016 6:52:20 GMT -5
Some Mookie stats “@jlundbladespn: Mookie Betts is the youngest player with 3 HR & 8+ RBI in a game since Fred Lynn in 1975 (also for the Red Sox)” “@timbritton: Betts joins Michael Saunders as the only major-leaguers with 8 RBIs in a game this year. Last Red Sox with 8+ in a game: Bill Mueller, 2003.” “@ianmbrowne: The only other redsox player to have two three-homer games in the same season? Ted Williams, in 1957.” I was watching the Fred Lynn game, if I remember right ,he also hit a triple that just missed going out.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 15, 2016 7:41:28 GMT -5
Mookie has Relativity Sports as his agency. Whats the rap on them?
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 15, 2016 8:00:56 GMT -5
Which is why the Red Sox should have tried to extend both Betts and Bogaerts last off-season (no I don't know whether they tried or not, but it should have been a priority). I think it has been said that Mookie really has no interest in it because he doesn't really think about money so there weren't even talks. You can't extend someone who doesn't show any interest in it. That's why he has an agent.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 15, 2016 9:13:59 GMT -5
I think it has been said that Mookie really has no interest in it because he doesn't really think about money so there weren't even talks. You can't extend someone who doesn't show any interest in it. That's why he has an agent. His agent likely said that he's not interested right now. I thought it was implied that the agent was doing his talking for him.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2016 10:48:51 GMT -5
Where does Mookie rank in a rational MVP argument? Here's bWAR adjusted for WPA (which is to say, value including offensive clutch):
7.3 Trout 6.2 Donaldson 5.7 Betts 5.6 Machado 4.7 Altuve
Mookie has a 710 OPS in high leverage and -0.9 clutch wins as a result. Altuve is even worse, at -1.1; his high-lev splits aren't awful, but with LI > 2.2 he's .214 / .261 / .286 in 46 PA (excluding IBB).
It looks like a nice 3-way race among the AL contenders, although Trout will get some support from voters who feel that being on an awful team (they finish last without him, too*) shouldn't matter.
*There are meanings of the word "valuable" where this is a valid point. I've always felt that there should be a separate Player of the Year, given to the player who was best in a predictive-stats sense (and hence you'd ignore WPA and even adjust BABIP based on exotic velocity and angle data), freeing the MVP up to go to the guy who really did make the most difference to his team's fortunes. I'd like to see defensive clutch measured, in that case.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 15, 2016 15:03:58 GMT -5
I'm not so sure mookie isn't the most valuable piece in all of baseball. Maybe an extension to even buy one year of FA would work for all parties.
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