Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 5, 2013 20:21:20 GMT -5
Interesting article from Hardball Times about Uehara, Cliff Lee, and the proper way to use Ks and BBs when evaluating a pitcher. The claim, borrowed from another article, is that the difference between K rate and BB rate - the rates taken as percentages of plate appearances - should be used instead of the ratio of K/9 over BB/9.
The writer goes on to mention Lee and, peripherally, Uehara, as being more properly evaluated this way. He then undermines his case with the following statement:
I looked at the totals for that metric over the last year. Just about all the top numbers belong to relievers, as you'd expect, right down to number 39 on the list where Stephen Strasburg makes an appearance with a K%-BB% of 22.9%.
Uehara's in the top 10, and if you eliminate everyone who pitched less than 20 innings, he's third at 30.8% behind only Craig Kimbrel at 44.1% and Aroldis Chapman at 35.9%. So this one is a head-scratcher. I guess I need a definition for "elite". There's also a bit of false logic, about how ratios with respect to 9 innings are deceptive. The 9 innings is irrelevant once you take the ratio of K/9 and divide by the BB/9, since the 9 cancels out of course. In any case it's a good read.
Uehara is going to be interesting. Amazing numbers during his time in the majors. Whatever he does to get batters out, he seems to do very well.
The writer goes on to mention Lee and, peripherally, Uehara, as being more properly evaluated this way. He then undermines his case with the following statement:
Going by K/BB, Uehara’s among the best relievers in the game. However, investigating Uehara a little deeper and understanding the flaws in the statistic he dominates show why the Red Sox were right to pay him at a rate that reflects his 2012 K%-BB%, a still excellent but not elite 30.8%, much more so than his K/BB (14.33).
I looked at the totals for that metric over the last year. Just about all the top numbers belong to relievers, as you'd expect, right down to number 39 on the list where Stephen Strasburg makes an appearance with a K%-BB% of 22.9%.
Uehara's in the top 10, and if you eliminate everyone who pitched less than 20 innings, he's third at 30.8% behind only Craig Kimbrel at 44.1% and Aroldis Chapman at 35.9%. So this one is a head-scratcher. I guess I need a definition for "elite". There's also a bit of false logic, about how ratios with respect to 9 innings are deceptive. The 9 innings is irrelevant once you take the ratio of K/9 and divide by the BB/9, since the 9 cancels out of course. In any case it's a good read.
Uehara is going to be interesting. Amazing numbers during his time in the majors. Whatever he does to get batters out, he seems to do very well.