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Trumbo, Encarnacion, Bautista
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2016 11:07:53 GMT -5
It should not about be replacing Ortiz-- he's gone either way, and the goal is to have the best team, not the best DH. With that said, I think 1B/DH is clearly the weakest spot on the 2017 roster. The rotation, the OF, SS and 2B are set. Catcher will be Leon and Vazquez, which may be worth upgrading if you're not a Leon believer, but there's not much in terms of upgrades on the market (only Wieters, and he'd be expensive and cost a pick). 3B will be Shaw or Sandoval, but the winner of that battle should be at least averagish, and Moncada is on the horizon. 1B/DH (whichever one Hanley doesn't play), though? Right now, it's one of Shaw or Sandoval, either of which would be well below-average for the position with the bat. Meanwhile, there's a pretty good crop of 1B/DH types in free agency. There's time to figure out which one fits the best, but I think it's a no-brainier that that's the position they'll be looking at. If they think it through (and I think they will), Sandoval would be the 1B and Hanley the DH vs. RHP. Vs. LHP, Hanley would play 1B and Chris Young would DH. Pablo is a career .288 TAv hitter. PECOTA projected him at .272 for this year. His Steamer projection is essentially identical, while ZiPS is a bit worse. Over the last 10 years, 1B are .282 hitters, but they've been .279 over the last 2, 3, 4, or 5 years (and are actually .274 this year). Now, I don't have time today to re-run the figures with Pablo's numbers versus RHP, plus Young's versus LHP, but that's pretty obviously a more or less average 1B bat, or better. You've got an elite team at virtually every other position. At 1B, you've got a league-average player whose entire contract you'd have to eat if you dumped him. There's a solid chance he regains value if you play him. I do think there's a sense in which looking to replace that guy would be a "no-brainer," but it's not the one you intended. |
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Post by joshmoody23 on Aug 28, 2016 11:09:06 GMT -5
Travis Shaw to me should be playing significantly less. If next years roster/lineup looked something like this, I think most of us would be pretty stoked.
Pedroia 2B
Xander SS
Mookie RF
Edwin Encarnarcion 1B/DH
Hanley 1B/DH
JBJ CF
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Sandy Leon C
Andrew Benintendi LF
Bench
Chris Young OF
Brock Holt UT
Travis Shaw 1B/3B
Blake Swihart/Vasquez C
We'd be in pretty good shape offensively. There would be no pressure at all on Pablo. I know Sandoval is the question mark and Moncada could potentially be a full time 3B by mid year next year but if you give Pablo at least spring training to show he can hit, maybe him or Shaw can fetch you something in a deal assuming the Sox eat a significant part of the deal but by the beginning of next year the contract won't be as bad with only 3 years left. I'd assume at this point Pablo Sandoval is in next years plans.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2016 11:40:35 GMT -5
It should not about be replacing Ortiz-- he's gone either way, and the goal is to have the best team, not the best DH. With that said, I think 1B/DH is clearly the weakest spot on the 2017 roster. The rotation, the OF, SS and 2B are set. Catcher will be Leon and Vazquez, which may be worth upgrading if you're not a Leon believer, but there's not much in terms of upgrades on the market (only Wieters, and he'd be expensive and cost a pick). 3B will be Shaw or Sandoval, but the winner of that battle should be at least averagish, and Moncada is on the horizon. 1B/DH (whichever one Hanley doesn't play), though? Right now, it's one of Shaw or Sandoval, either of which would be well below-average for the position with the bat. Meanwhile, there's a pretty good crop of 1B/DH types in free agency. There's time to figure out which one fits the best, but I think it's a no-brainier that that's the position they'll be looking at. If they think it through (and I think they will), Sandoval would be the 1B and Hanley the DH vs. RHP. Vs. LHP, Hanley would play 1B and Chris Young would DH. Pablo is a career .288 TAv hitter. PECOTA projected him at .272 for this year. His Steamer projection is essentially identical, while ZiPS is a bit worse. Over the last 10 years, 1B are .282 hitters, but they've been .279 over the last 2, 3, 4, or 5 years (and are actually .274 this year). Now, I don't have time today to re-run the figures with Pablo's numbers versus RHP, plus Young's versus LHP, but that's pretty obviously a more or less average 1B bat, or better. You've got an elite team at virtually every other position. At 1B, you've got a league-average player whose entire contract you'd have to eat if you dumped him. There's a solid chance he regains value if you play him. I do think there's a sense in which looking to replace that guy would be a "no-brainer," but it's not the one you intended. You can't pencil Young in as the DH when he'll already be starting in LF versus most LHP (giving Benintendi or Bradley days off). After essentially missing an entire year and being a year older, you can bet Sandoval's projections will be a tick worse next year. You need extra players to build up depth in case of injury-- having Sandoval be your backup 1B is a lot better than, say, Allen Craig. Even the most optimistic projection has 1B as their worst starting spot (including the rotation), so if they're to make any non-bullpen upgrades at all, that's the first position they should look at. |
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Post by soxjim on Aug 28, 2016 11:42:03 GMT -5
The Sox will have about 35 home runs and 120 RBIs to make up for. No way they go into 2017 without picking up a DH over the winter. Of the four (Encarnacion, Trumbo, Bautista, and Beltran) I'll take Encarnacion by a mile. He has a track record the last 4-5 years of producing the kind of numbers Ortiz is putting up this year. I would spend the dough and make it happen. The scouts in Money Ball said something very similar to Billy Beane when they were discussing replacing Giambi. As we saw, it does not have to come from one position, or be a one player replacing another with similar production. First, EE, Trumbo, or Beltran would all be great adds for this team. Not sold on Joey Batts, as I see the cliff approaching due to health concerns. Now, can the Sox replace Papi's production from within? Here's why they may possibly make a stand pat choice: - A full year of Andrew Benintendi has some offset - A health, and motivated Sandoval has some offset - A year more comfortable David Price has some offset - A comfortable Pomeranz for a full year has some offset - Another year of maturity for all the kids has some offset - Healthy and effective Smith and Workman provide some offset - The 2017 emergence of Moncada has some offset That's 13 roster positions where a means to offset Papi's lost production can occur. This is however, 13 question marks where they can't lock in that production value. In the end, it may be that the variable is too great to not pull the trigger on one of the bats available. My guess is EE; because he wants to play 1B, and Hanley wants to DH, and it fits better than trying to fit in a lesser outfielder. The money is another unknown. We would all expect the LT value to go up, but small market teams are going to fight too large an increase. If 2017 goes over $200M, then I do see them making a splash. If it doesnt, the choices become murkier Where did you read that Hanley wants to DH? Also, I would think if Sox got EE then why would Sox put Hanley at DH when Hanley is probably a better defender? We're going to sacrifice our pitching/defense a bit because an older player wants to play 1b at the cost of hurting the team? Too much to not like here- not that I wouldn't doubt Sox make a move- they do make some decisions that are highly questionable sometimes. I'd be really upset if they put EE there unless he really is a better or equal defender than Hanley.
Also- we would expect a better year from ERod too, right? And Buchholz? Maybe not with Wright or Porcello. This might not be a wash because it appears now Buchh can get to the bullpen.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Aug 28, 2016 11:59:00 GMT -5
The scouts in Money Ball said something very similar to Billy Beane when they were discussing replacing Giambi. As we saw, it does not have to come from one position, or be a one player replacing another with similar production. First, EE, Trumbo, or Beltran would all be great adds for this team. Not sold on Joey Batts, as I see the cliff approaching due to health concerns. Now, can the Sox replace Papi's production from within? Here's why they may possibly make a stand pat choice: - A full year of Andrew Benintendi has some offset - A health, and motivated Sandoval has some offset - A year more comfortable David Price has some offset - A comfortable Pomeranz for a full year has some offset - Another year of maturity for all the kids has some offset - Healthy and effective Smith and Workman provide some offset - The 2017 emergence of Moncada has some offset That's 13 roster positions where a means to offset Papi's lost production can occur. This is however, 13 question marks where they can't lock in that production value. In the end, it may be that the variable is too great to not pull the trigger on one of the bats available. My guess is EE; because he wants to play 1B, and Hanley wants to DH, and it fits better than trying to fit in a lesser outfielder. The money is another unknown. We would all expect the LT value to go up, but small market teams are going to fight too large an increase. If 2017 goes over $200M, then I do see them making a splash. If it doesnt, the choices become murkier Where did you read that Hanley wants to DH? Also, I would think if Sox got EE then why would Sox put Hanley at DH when Hanley is probably a better defender? We're going to sacrifice our pitching/defense a bit because an older player wants to play 1b at the cost of hurting the team? Too much to not like here- not that I wouldn't doubt Sox make a move- they do make some decisions that are highly questionable sometimes. I'd be really upset if they put EE there unless he really is a better or equal defender than Hanley.
Also- we would expect a better year from ERod too, right? And Buchholz? Maybe not with Wright or Porcello. This might not be a wash because it appears now Buchh can get to the bullpen.
Hanley has made many statements about his affinity for being a DH. There is nothing in what I wrote that would preclude them from splitting time at the 2 positions. Yes, better years could be expected from ERod and Buchholz. Lots of ifs, not sure how they read those tea leaves. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2016 12:53:10 GMT -5
I don't want the Sox to do what they did with Pablo: overpay a player that is not what they want to fill a need. To me, they are better off getting Mark Reynolds or Casey McGehee cheap, maybe platoon Moncada until he transitions to an everyday player. Hold the money for a better option or spend it on a different weakness. Or make a big trade for a DH. I'm still open to JBJ, Devers, Swihart for someone game changing to step in for Papi. That someone, though, needs to be a 5 year centerpiece, though.
No on these guys, though. Being able to sign the best (most expensive) free agents doesnt typically mean it IS best to do so. Pablo was "best" 3B on the market, but that just meant they should've been more patient solving the 3B problem. If they pay big for another aging player, it could be subtraction by addition for a few years.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 28, 2016 13:16:43 GMT -5
Encarnacion is the only one of these guys I'd really even consider. Bautista is ancient and having a bad year; Trumbo has never been good and isn't even that good this season. Get a Napoli or a a Moss or whoever for a stopgap, spend the big bucks on Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Rodriguez, etc.
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Post by jdb on Aug 28, 2016 13:17:22 GMT -5
Thinking out loud here for a second.
Would Andre Eithier be a viable trade option and essentially platoon him with Young and give you flexibility to rest starters in the the DH spot more frequently?
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Post by soxjim on Aug 28, 2016 13:52:12 GMT -5
If they think it through (and I think they will), Sandoval would be the 1B and Hanley the DH vs. RHP. Vs. LHP, Hanley would play 1B and Chris Young would DH. Pablo is a career .288 TAv hitter. PECOTA projected him at .272 for this year. His Steamer projection is essentially identical, while ZiPS is a bit worse. Over the last 10 years, 1B are .282 hitters, but they've been .279 over the last 2, 3, 4, or 5 years (and are actually .274 this year). Now, I don't have time today to re-run the figures with Pablo's numbers versus RHP, plus Young's versus LHP, but that's pretty obviously a more or less average 1B bat, or better. You've got an elite team at virtually every other position. At 1B, you've got a league-average player whose entire contract you'd have to eat if you dumped him. There's a solid chance he regains value if you play him. I do think there's a sense in which looking to replace that guy would be a "no-brainer," but it's not the one you intended. You can't pencil Young in as the DH when he'll already be starting in LF versus most LHP (giving Benintendi or Bradley days off). After essentially missing an entire year and being a year older, you can bet Sandoval's projections will be a tick worse next year. You need extra players to build up depth in case of injury-- having Sandoval be your backup 1B is a lot better than, say, Allen Craig. Even the most optimistic projection has 1B as their worst starting spot (including the rotation), so if they're to make any non-bullpen upgrades at all, that's the first position they should look at. I think you can pencil in Young for example if you have Swihart in leftfield and Holt be more in align with his 2014 and 2015 splits at 3b until Moncada is ready. Holt his lefties very well in those seasons yet this year he is a train wreck vs them.
I think Swihart can be back up leftfielder and I believe in Holt. So the lineup on some days could be when you sub for Bradley:
1 Pedey 2b 2- XB ss 3 Betts rf 4 Hanley 1b 5 Young or Beni (DH or cf) 6 Young or Beni (DH or cf) 7 Leon c 8- Swihart LF 9 Holt 3b
IF Holt can revert back to 2014/2015 form until Moncada comes (Holt wears down in 2nd half of seasons with too many at bats not the 1st half) - this would be a darn good lineup. A lineup doesn't have to be prolific. It can be good without it. And our pitching should be strong next year with even just 1 good bullpen pickup. And it will be really strong if Barnes picks up another level.
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2016 14:44:04 GMT -5
How about this: place claim on Puig, trade big for him, hire Papi next year as a mentor? Guy is 25. He has star potential still, and attitudes improve. I'd be open to a good prospect package for him.
i include this in this thread to repeat my larger point: don't solve the problem of Papi's loss by sinking money in aging DHs. Do something more creative that looks longer term.
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Post by adamoraz on Aug 28, 2016 16:50:30 GMT -5
Here's an idea for DH. If you're a believer in Sandy Leon's bat then train Swihart at 1B and let Leon and Vazquez share the catching duty, with each catching about half the games each week.
Then when Leon catches, you can let Vazquez be his back up, Swihart can play 1B and Hanley can DH.
When Vazquez catches you have Swihart backup, Hanley at 1B and Leon DH.
That way you get Leon's bat every game without him getting warn out behind the plate too much, get Swihart's bat into the lineup, avoid a long term contract for a straight DH and improve your depth since Swihart can also play LF.
I don't think this has any chance of happening, but I thought it was an intriguing idea.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 28, 2016 16:52:35 GMT -5
Encarnacion is the only one of these guys I'd really even consider. Bautista is ancient and having a bad year; Trumbo has never been good and isn't even that good this season. Get a Napoli or a a Moss or whoever for a stopgap, spend the big bucks on Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Rodriguez, etc.This please. Everything else is secondary. |
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,962 
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Post by jimoh on Aug 28, 2016 17:28:55 GMT -5
Hmm, Mike Napoli has 29 hrs. Would not be an above average offensive 1b, but could be a bargain as a cog in a strong lineup.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2016 22:26:19 GMT -5
If they think it through (and I think they will), Sandoval would be the 1B and Hanley the DH vs. RHP. Vs. LHP, Hanley would play 1B and Chris Young would DH. Pablo is a career .288 TAv hitter. PECOTA projected him at .272 for this year. His Steamer projection is essentially identical, while ZiPS is a bit worse. Over the last 10 years, 1B are .282 hitters, but they've been .279 over the last 2, 3, 4, or 5 years (and are actually .274 this year). Now, I don't have time today to re-run the figures with Pablo's numbers versus RHP, plus Young's versus LHP, but that's pretty obviously a more or less average 1B bat, or better. You've got an elite team at virtually every other position. At 1B, you've got a league-average player whose entire contract you'd have to eat if you dumped him. There's a solid chance he regains value if you play him. I do think there's a sense in which looking to replace that guy would be a "no-brainer," but it's not the one you intended. You can't pencil Young in as the DH when he'll already be starting in LF versus most LHP (giving Benintendi or Bradley days off). After essentially missing an entire year and being a year older, you can bet Sandoval's projections will be a tick worse next year. You need extra players to build up depth in case of injury-- having Sandoval be your backup 1B is a lot better than, say, Allen Craig. Even the most optimistic projection has 1B as their worst starting spot (including the rotation), so if they're to make any non-bullpen upgrades at all, that's the first position they should look at. In the 40-man roster thread I mentioned several times that we'd be adding a RH bat who could play 3B instead of signing one of the guys being talked about, e.g. Danny Valencia. I would have mentioned that if I had gotten around to the short-term version of the argument. If depth is your concern, you don't need to invest $80M and spend a draft pick. You can't pencil Young in as the DH when he'll already be starting in LF versus most LHP (giving Benintendi or Bradley days off).
Yes, you want Chris Young to give JBJ and Benny some time off, but 55-ish combined games seems excessive given their platoon splits and his defensive limitations. That he's no longer a big honking upgrade as a platoon partner is a rationale for using him as a DH, because you do want his bat in the lineup against LHP. I'd say 20 - 25 starts in LF sounds more like it. And as much as possible you'd do that in Fenway, where his defensive limitations are masked. And in those games, you can keep Hanley at DH and have Shaw play 1B. He's a hugely better hitter in Fenway than on the road, and given his plus 1B defense, his bat vs. LHP in Fenway still makes him a decent starting option. Even the most optimistic projection has 1B as their worst starting spot (including the rotation), so if they're to make any non-bullpen upgrades at all, that's the first position they should look at.
I don't disagree with that at all. You might look into a deal for Fredddie Freeman where Shaw was one of the players going the other way, for instance. However, you have to ask whether such an upgrade would make sense, in terms of cost versus benefit. Imagine you have a luxurious home stocked with great goods, and you drive a beautiful car, but your wife's car is good, but nothing special. That's the first thing in your life you'll look at to improve. You would do it today if cost were no object. But imagine that you have financial limitations looming. Now maybe it's not a good idea. Oh, and your rich uncle who has cancer and is unlikely to live for more than about two years has exactly the sort of car you'd buy for your wife (a Devers HR-30) and, although you can't be certain, you have sound reason to believe he's left it for you in his will. |
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Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2016 6:48:50 GMT -5
To be clear, I'm not saying they have to sign Encarnacion no matter what. I'm saying that they should probably acquire a starting-caliber 1B/DH-type, because they can easily do better than penciling Sandoval in as their DH for 130+ games. I'd be fine with, and probably have a slight preference for, say, Beltran or Napoli or Steve Pearce. But if Encarnacion's or Bautista's market proves weaker than expected and the Red Sox can sign one of them for a reasonable price? I'd be fine with that, too.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 29, 2016 9:32:24 GMT -5
As Ryan said above, you can look at the Moneyball thing to replace Papi's production. AB may take a year or 2 to be really productive, like it did with 3 B's. Can you really bank on Sandoval/Shaw? I agree SP will be better. EE would almost be guaranteed production @ (mostly) DH. He should age like Nelson Cruz. We can't gamble on these few years we have with our young core.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 29, 2016 11:55:23 GMT -5
As Ryan said above, you can look at the Moneyball thing to replace Papi's production. AB may take a year or 2 to be really productive, like it did with 3 B's. Can you really bank on Sandoval/Shaw? I agree SP will be better. EE would almost be guaranteed production @ (mostly) DH. He should age like Nelson Cruz. We can't gamble on these few years we have with our young core. I think going after youth (Freeman) is much better served than going after am aging EE. We have an abundance of starting pitching for trade and with all the other player's we have, imo the move should be for a younger star, not an aging DH. Freeman is perfect.
Or find a cheap left bat that maybe can plat 1st. But frankly, I still don't see any move with Pablo other than keep off the field for defense. So imo he only has one use other than an outright cut. And that's DH.
And as for Betts he didn't struggle much. Shaw was awesome when he 1st came up. Swhart got pretty hot after 1st month or so. Every player is different. And so far Beni imo has no resemblance to JBJ.
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Post by Coreno on Aug 29, 2016 12:16:37 GMT -5
can we trade Rusney and Trey Ball to ARI for Goldschmidt?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 29, 2016 15:31:06 GMT -5
can we trade Rusney and Trey Ball to ARI for Goldschmidt? |
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 29, 2016 15:38:49 GMT -5
As Ryan said above, you can look at the Moneyball thing to replace Papi's production. AB may take a year or 2 to be really productive, like it did with 3 B's. Can you really bank on Sandoval/Shaw? I agree SP will be better. EE would almost be guaranteed production @ (mostly) DH. He should age like Nelson Cruz. We can't gamble on these few years we have with our young core. I think going after youth (Freeman) is much better served than going after am aging EE. We have an abundance of starting pitching for trade and with all the other player's we have, imo the move should be for a younger star, not an aging DH. Freeman is perfect.
Or find a cheap left bat that maybe can plat 1st. But frankly, I still don't see any move with Pablo other than keep off the field for defense. So imo he only has one use other than an outright cut. And that's DH.
And as for Betts he didn't struggle much. Shaw was awesome when he 1st came up. Swhart got pretty hot after 1st month or so. Every player is different. And so far Beni imo has no resemblance to JBJ.
It would all depend on what Atlanta wants for Freeman. I do not see us being able to trade a SP as we are not very deep there. Shaw +  . Freeman is owed 5/106 after this year. EE would only cost a pick & money (4/75?). |
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 29, 2016 15:43:19 GMT -5
I think going after youth (Freeman) is much better served than going after am aging EE. We have an abundance of starting pitching for trade and with all the other player's we have, imo the move should be for a younger star, not an aging DH. Freeman is perfect.
Or find a cheap left bat that maybe can plat 1st. But frankly, I still don't see any move with Pablo other than keep off the field for defense. So imo he only has one use other than an outright cut. And that's DH.
And as for Betts he didn't struggle much. Shaw was awesome when he 1st came up. Swhart got pretty hot after 1st month or so. Every player is different. And so far Beni imo has no resemblance to JBJ.
It would all depend on what Atlanta wants for Freeman. I do not see us being able to trade a SP as we are not very deep there. Shaw + . Freeman is owed 5/106 after this year. EE would only cost a pick & money (4/75?). Freeman is 26 and pretty much guaranteed to not start regressing much due to age unlike EE. He also seems to have a Fenway swing. Lots of HR to LF. Of course it depends on the trade cost, but acquiring Freeman should be much less risky. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 29, 2016 15:51:52 GMT -5
As Ryan said above, you can look at the Moneyball thing to replace Papi's production. AB may take a year or 2 to be really productive, like it did with 3 B's. Can you really bank on Sandoval/Shaw? I agree SP will be better. EE would almost be guaranteed production @ (mostly) DH. He should age like Nelson Cruz. We can't gamble on these few years we have with our young core. You are allowed to make in-season trades if original plan isn't working. A guy like Cargo will be in last year of contract. |
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 30, 2016 7:44:50 GMT -5
I think going after youth (Freeman) is much better served than going after am aging EE. We have an abundance of starting pitching for trade and with all the other player's we have, imo the move should be for a younger star, not an aging DH. Freeman is perfect.
Or find a cheap left bat that maybe can plat 1st. But frankly, I still don't see any move with Pablo other than keep off the field for defense. So imo he only has one use other than an outright cut. And that's DH.
And as for Betts he didn't struggle much. Shaw was awesome when he 1st came up. Swhart got pretty hot after 1st month or so. Every player is different. And so far Beni imo has no resemblance to JBJ.
It would all depend on what Atlanta wants for Freeman. I do not see us being able to trade a SP as we are not very deep there. Shaw + . Freeman is owed 5/106 after this year. EE would only cost a pick & money (4/75?). Definitely freeman or Goldschmidt before big bucks for ee and company. Hard to tell what d-backs would want? The braves would want probably 2 young vets and 2 prospects. Definitely one a pitcher probably 2. Probably want kopech or groome. Ouch!! I don't think that would happen but there are other possibilities. I think a lot depends on where they think sam travis is at.. |
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Post by jdb on Aug 30, 2016 8:52:31 GMT -5
Unless the Braves front office are huge Red Sox fans I'm guessing any Freeman deal centers around Moncada and probably includes either Devers or Benny.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 30, 2016 9:05:47 GMT -5
I wouldn't do any of the above. This teams offense should be fine without a big addition and you have the possibility adding either Travis or Moncada during the season. Sandoval isn't going anywhere so you might as well see if he can bring something anything either at first or third. Yea yea he's below average at first but the lineup is above average to great at a bunch of other spots so the collective is good. Spending long term dollars on anyone affects things when looking to resign Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, ERod and anyone else. It even affects thing when just when they hit arbitration.
A lineup consisting of these guys should be very good:
Leon (C)
Shaw/Panda (3b/1b)
Pedroia (2b)
Xander (SS)
Betts (rf)
Bradley (cf)
Benintendi (lf)
Hanley (DH)
Bench:
Holt
Young
Catcher
Free agent
Teach Young how to play first base or let Hanley play first while Young DHs in certain spots.
Spend the money on shorter term options like in the bullpen or something.
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. Freeman is owed 5/106 after this year. EE would only cost a pick & money (4/75?).
