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Post by jmei on Aug 25, 2016 12:46:25 GMT -5
Ian has a scouting report out for Shawaryn (with bonus Shaun Anderson action): news.soxprospects.com/2016/08/scouting-scratch-mike-shawaryn-and.htmlHe's one of those tweener guys that the Cherington administration would have tried to keep a starter for as long as possible. Will Dombrowski do the same? He could move quickly as a reliever, but there have also been plenty of high-effort guys who ended up sticking in the rotation.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 25, 2016 17:11:43 GMT -5
Ian has a scouting report out for Shawaryn (with bonus Shaun Anderson action): news.soxprospects.com/2016/08/scouting-scratch-mike-shawaryn-and.htmlHe's one of those tweener guys that the Cherington administration would have tried to keep a starter for as long as possible. Will Dombrowski do the same? He could move quickly as a reliever, but there have also been plenty of high-effort guys who ended up sticking in the rotation. Its a great question. We've seen guys like Ben Taylor, Marc Brakeman, and Austin Glorious moved to the bullpen relatively quickly under the Dombrowski reign. An organizational view of Shawaryn as a reliever could help explain his slide to the 5th round. Personally, I feel like the delivery and stuff definitely makes it likely that he ends up in relief. That said, I'd give a long leash to stay in the rotation......his track record at Maryland was very good as a starter, and even with his down year he still managed a sub 1.00 WHIP with nearly a strikeout per inning. Statistically, he seems like a guy that just finds a way to succeed as a starter. Its a better college track record as a starter than Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, or Brian Johnson for that matter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 25, 2016 18:02:21 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 5, 2017 15:16:42 GMT -5
Bumping the Shawaryn thread on a slow day. He was filthy in Greenville and had a solid first start in Salem. I wanted to compare his time to Greenville to other recent college draftees to see just how good he was in a level he was probably expected to handle with ease. The following are Greenville stats for college draftees: Pitcher | Year | Innings | K% | BB% | GB% | OPS against | WHIP | ERA | Mike Shawaryn | 2017 | 53.1 | 35.8% | 6.0% | 40.3% | .640 | 1.07 | 3.88 | Shaun Anderson | 2017 | 38.2 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 51.0% | .594 | 1.06 | 2.56 | Ben Taylor | 2015 (draft year) | 45.0 | 19.3% | 7.8% | 37.2% | .653 | 1.29 | 3.40 | Jalen Beeks | 2015 | 145.2 | 16.2% | 4.5% | 43.0% | .742 | 1.26 | 4.32 | Brian Johnson | 2013 | 69.0 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 40.9% | .578 | 1.13 | 2.87 | Pat Light | 2013 | 28.1 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 44.8% | .948 | 2.05 | 8.89 | Matt Barnes | 2012 | 26.2 | 43.3% | 4.1% | 58.7% | .338 | 0.60 | 0.34 | Anthony Ranaudo | 2011 | 46.0 | 26.6% | 8.5% | 37.5% | .631 | 1.11 | 3.33 | Brandon Workman | 2011 | 131.0 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 40.1% | .694 | 1.23 | 3.71 | Clay Buchholz | 2006 | 103.0 | 28.5% | 7.1% | ?? | ?? | 1.04 | 2.62 |
Thoughts: Shawaryn's Greenville stint looks like the best in the last 10 years among college draftees not named Matt Barnes. I didn't even remove his first start which make his numbers look considerable worse. As a side -- good lord did Barnes dominate in that small sample. It was hard not to think that he had ace upside at that point in his career. I threw in Buchholz out of curiosity, but he came out of JUCO and I couldn't quickly find GB or OPS values. Anyways, Shawaryn's start is highly encouraging, and coupled with the positive scouting reports, he appears to resemble the dominant Sophomore from Maryland generating 1st round buzz. I think the reports of his mechanics could eventually factor into a move to the bullpen, but at the same time, his body and college performance suggest he has a real chance to start. For me, he sits in a tier with Lakins as the best pitching prospects not named Groome (Mata may be creeping though, and I'm interested to see how Beeks fares in Pawtucket over the rest of the year).
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 5, 2017 15:53:44 GMT -5
Bumping the Shawaryn thread on a slow day. He was filthy in Greenville and had a solid first start in Salem. I wanted to compare his time to Greenville to other recent college draftees to see just how good he was in a level he was probably expected to handle with ease. The following are Greenville stats for college draftees: Pitcher | Year | Innings | K% | BB% | GB% | OPS against | WHIP | ERA | Mike Shawaryn | 2017 | 53.1 | 35.8% | 6.0% | 40.3% | .640 | 1.07 | 3.88 | Shaun Anderson | 2017 | 38.2 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 51.0% | .594 | 1.06 | 2.56 | Ben Taylor | 2015 (draft year) | 45.0 | 19.3% | 7.8% | 37.2% | .653 | 1.29 | 3.40 | Jalen Beeks | 2015 | 145.2 | 16.2% | 4.5% | 43.0% | .742 | 1.26 | 4.32 | Brian Johnson | 2013 | 69.0 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 40.9% | .578 | 1.13 | 2.87 | Pat Light | 2013 | 28.1 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 44.8% | .948 | 2.05 | 8.89 | Matt Barnes | 2012 | 26.2 | 43.3% | 4.1% | 58.7% | .338 | 0.60 | 0.34 | Anthony Ranaudo | 2011 | 46.0 | 26.6% | 8.5% | 37.5% | .631 | 1.11 | 3.33 | Brandon Workman | 2011 | 131.0 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 40.1% | .694 | 1.23 | 3.71 | Clay Buchholz | 2006 | 103.0 | 28.5% | 7.1% | ?? | ?? | 1.04 | 2.62 |
Thoughts: Shawaryn's Greenville stint looks like the best in the last 10 years among college draftees not named Matt Barnes. I didn't even remove his first start which make his numbers look considerable worse. As a side -- good lord did Barnes dominate in that small sample. It was hard not to think that he had ace upside at that point in his career. I threw in Buchholz out of curiosity, but he came out of JUCO and I couldn't quickly find GB or OPS values. Anyways, Shawaryn's start is highly encouraging, and coupled with the positive scouting reports, he appears to resemble the dominant Sophomore from Maryland generating 1st round buzz. I think the reports of his mechanics could eventually factor into a move to the bullpen, but at the same time, his body and college performance suggest he has a real chance to start. For me, he sits in a tier with Lakins as the best pitching prospects not named Groome (Mata may be creeping though, and I'm interested to see how Beeks fares in Pawtucket over the rest of the year). Thanks for putting this together. It really helps me notice guys I probably wouldn't. I will be watching and hoping for the best.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 5, 2017 15:56:03 GMT -5
Thanks for this. This is why we don't want to read the world into a college pitcher's performance at the A+ level. The stuff can play extremely well only to get really tested as the player advances. Barnes has phenomenal stuff, not quite as good as Kelly's but close. He's been plagued at the ML level by the same lack of command of all his pitches that Kelly has slowly cured himself of. Setting hitters up means throwing strikes early because they won't chase pitches out of the zone, most are too disciplined for that. Get behind in the count and get in trouble fast, after one or two batters. It's never good for a pitcher but for a late-inning reliever, it's especially bad.
Barnes has finally started to look good sequencing his pitches and using the hammer curve to great effect, but it's taken a while. So it's useful to keep some perspective on those SAL performances.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2017 18:03:05 GMT -5
Has Shawaryn done enough so far to up his projection as a reliever to possible starter?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 5, 2017 20:28:40 GMT -5
To me he's in the category of Jalen Beeks or Justin Masterson (which is the comp I think we've heard quite a bit). The delivery is certainly more like that of a reliever, and the stuff is too, but he has the build of a starter and I think they'll give him every chance to make it there. Masterson was better than either Shawaryn or Beeks but I think that's a useful baseline as kind of a perfect-world projection.
A 3.88 ERA is kind of hilariously out of sync with his peripherals there. Of all the guys on that list, only Barnes outpitched his underlying stats, but Shawaryn is toward the back of the pack in ERA.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 5, 2017 21:04:26 GMT -5
To me he's in the category of Jalen Beeks or Justin Masterson (which is the comp I think we've heard quite a bit). The delivery is certainly more like that of a reliever, and the stuff is too, but he has the build of a starter and I think they'll give him every chance to make it there. Masterson was better than either Shawaryn or Beeks but I think that's a useful baseline as kind of a perfect-world projection. A 3.88 ERA is kind of hilariously out of sync with his peripherals there. Of all the guys on that list, only Barnes outpitched his underlying stats, but Shawaryn is toward the back of the pack in ERA. Yeah I hesitated to even include ERA. As many here know, he gave up 9 ER in his first 2 innings....16 in his next 56.1 (2.57 ERA). His OPS against goes down considerably too if you remove those first two innings.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 6, 2017 9:11:55 GMT -5
FYI, there's a decent amount of Beeks and Shawaryn talk on the podcast we recorded last night.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 4, 2018 9:03:58 GMT -5
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 20, 2018 11:00:07 GMT -5
Two quick questions:
1) does he have an innings limit for this season? Or is he at the point when they just let him go?
2) does he see any time in September in Boston?
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 20, 2018 11:06:52 GMT -5
Two quick questions: 1) does he have an innings limit for this season? Or is he at the point when they just let him go? 2) does he see any time in September in Boston? I’m not sure if this would have anything to do with service time or anything, but a Shawaryn isn’t Rule 5 Eligible until December 2019.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 20, 2018 11:15:20 GMT -5
Personal opinion here:
1) I don't think he'd realistically have an innings limit. I don't think they'd want him to get past 170ish, but he's not getting there without working as a starter in September. And if he's working as a starter in September either the PawSox had some kind of hisoric comeback in the IL wild card race, or something has gone awry with the major league club.
2) I'd be surprised but not shocked. He's not Rule 5 eligible until next year, so I don't know that there's a good reason to add to a 40-man roster crunch and start his options running just to get him a half-dozen innings out of the bullpen in September. But given how they pushed Ben Taylor and Bobby Poyner onto the active roster without a whole lot of regard to such things, if they think Shawaryn is marginally better than who they otherwise might promote then maybe?
Thinking about him in terms of roster expansion adds, I think Lakins (who needs to be added to the 40-man anyway) will be up. Plus Walden, Poyner, probably Scott. Maybe Haley and/or Cuevas if they want another guy who can give some length. Chandler Shepherd has had an under-the-radar solid season after a kind of rough transition to starting in April - I think they held off on him in order to keep him on a rotation, but now that the Pawtucket season is over they might be willing to give him a call. You absolutely could argue that Shawaryn is better than any of this group, but I don't see him as so much better, right now, that it would make the difference and outweigh the reasons not to call on him. But the Red Sox may disagree and I don't think that would be crazy or anything.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 20, 2018 11:34:43 GMT -5
Personal opinion here: 1) I don't think he'd realistically have an innings limit. I don't think they'd want him to get past 170ish, but he's not getting there without working as a starter in September. And if he's working as a starter in September either the PawSox had some kind of hisoric comeback in the IL wild card race, or something has gone awry with the major league club. 2) I'd be surprised but not shocked. He's not Rule 5 eligible until next year, so I don't know that there's a good reason to add to a 40-man roster crunch and start his options running just to get him a half-dozen innings out of the bullpen in September. But given how they pushed Ben Taylor and Bobby Poyner onto the active roster without a whole lot of regard to such things, if they think Shawaryn is marginally better than who they otherwise might promote then maybe? Thinking about him in terms of roster expansion adds, I think Lakins (who needs to be added to the 40-man anyway) will be up. Plus Walden, Poyner, probably Scott. Maybe Haley and/or Cuevas if they want another guy who can give some length. Chandler Shepherd has had an under-the-radar solid season after a kind of rough transition to starting in April - I think they held off on him in order to keep him on a rotation, but now that the Pawtucket season is over they might be willing to give him a call. You absolutely could argue that Shawaryn is better than any of this group, but I don't see him as so much better, right now, that it would make the difference and outweigh the reasons not to call on him. But the Red Sox may disagree and I don't think that would be crazy or anything. Thanks! A very thoughtful analysis. Shepherd is an interesting one. They stretched him, but surely his future (with the Sox at least) is likely the Pen, no? I am hoping Shawaryn might provide some value to the big club next year.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 5, 2018 12:52:00 GMT -5
Here is a scouting report on Mike Shawaryn from 2080 baseball. In touches on his potential as starter/reliever and largely corroborates our own site's projection as a likely RP: The scouting report includes more detail about each pitch and also his velo drop, so check the report if you're interested.
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Post by ramireja on May 23, 2019 17:33:09 GMT -5
This Prospects Live scouting report contains a look at Shawaryn from Ralph Lifshitz. It probably reads a little optimistically but I thought this was an encouraging report overall with some interesting observations:
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 12, 2019 12:51:23 GMT -5
Based on Cora's pregame news conference today it seems like Shawaryn has been shifted to the bullpen full time. The Sox think he stuff is better in short stints.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 12, 2019 13:24:44 GMT -5
Based on Cora's pregame news conference today it seems like Shawaryn has been shifted to the bullpen full time. The Sox think he stuff is better in short stints. That is fine. Good for 2019. Like so many others he could also go back to starting. My concern was he would he shipped down soon in favor of a lesser pitcher that AC likes more (I.e. Josh Smith). It is possible that Shawaryn could be to the Pen what Chavis and Marco have done for the lineup.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 12, 2019 15:59:01 GMT -5
Based on Cora's pregame news conference today it seems like Shawaryn has been shifted to the bullpen full time. The Sox think he stuff is better in short stints. We've been saying this for a while now. Second time through the order has been an issue for him in Pawtucket, as has maintaining velo.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2019 18:10:02 GMT -5
We've been saying this for a while now. Second time through the order has been an issue for him in Pawtucket, as has maintaining velo. Do you think his stuff will play up enough to be a late-ish inning guy, or is he more of a multi-inning sort? I'm guessing he becomes a middle reliever who generally goes 1 inning but could go 2 if you really need it. So not exactly a setup man or closer, but not quite the swingman Johnson/Velazquez are.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 13, 2019 15:11:41 GMT -5
Do you think his stuff will play up enough to be a late-ish inning guy, or is he more of a multi-inning sort? I'm guessing he becomes a middle reliever who generally goes 1 inning but could go 2 if you really need it. So not exactly a setup man or closer, but not quite the swingman Johnson/Velazquez are. Wherever he is used, he has been a refreshing addition to an already tired bullpen. 3 strong debut appearances might mean one of several big holes in the Pen has been fixed. Who is next up??
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 13, 2019 15:23:33 GMT -5
I'm guessing he becomes a middle reliever who generally goes 1 inning but could go 2 if you really need it. So not exactly a setup man or closer, but not quite the swingman Johnson/Velazquez are. Wherever he is used, he has been a refreshing addition to an already tired bullpen. 3 strong debut appearances might mean one of several big holes in the Pen has been fixed. Who is next up?? I'm not ready to say that he has solved a bullpen issue based on 3 outings. He's looked good so far so he has certainly earned more looks. The next person up for the bullpen is most likely Steven Wright. The questions with him are how effective will he be and for how long can he stay healthy? He's probably the most likely to give a boost to the bullpen over the next few months, but it's not something you can really count on.
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Post by gerry on Jun 13, 2019 15:39:31 GMT -5
Wherever he is used, he has been a refreshing addition to an already tired bullpen. 3 strong debut appearances might mean one of several big holes in the Pen has been fixed. Who is next up?? I'm not ready to say that he has solved a bullpen issue based on 3 outings. He's looked good so far so he has certainly earned more looks. The next person up for the bullpen is most likely Steven Wright. The questions with him are how effective will he be and for how long can he stay healthy? He's probably the most likely to give a boost to the bullpen over the next few months, but it's not something you can really count on. Hopefully Wright returns to All Star form, and the “might mean Shawaryn fills a hole” to Shawaryn “is here to stay”. I just noticed that Lakins is back up, so let’s hope he can get back his 2018 helium. That would be awesome even before Wright returns. There is hope ... and a trade deadline.
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