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Post by DesignatedKyle on Nov 5, 2016 20:12:05 GMT -5
Kopech mowin' fools down in the All Star Game right now.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2016 20:39:34 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2016 21:13:17 GMT -5
Kopech 2 innings perfect, 3K.
20 pitches 14 strikes:
3rd inning 99 FB CS 99 FB CS 99 FB Ball 90 Slider FO,CF
91 FB CS (change ?) 92 FB SS (change ?) 100 FB Ball 98 FB CS
99 FB Ball 98 FB LO,2B
4th inning 96 FB Ball 97 FB GO,3B
96 FB foul 96 FB CS 96 FB CS
98 FB CS 88 SL Ball 86 SL Ball 97 FB SS 97 FB CS
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Nov 5, 2016 22:39:24 GMT -5
Kopech 2 innings perfect, 3K. 20 pitches 14 strikes: 3rd inning 99 FB CS 99 FB CS 99 FB Ball 90 Slider FO,CF 91 FB CS (change ?) 92 FB SS (change ?) 100 FB Ball 98 FB CS 99 FB Ball 98 FB LO,2B 4th inning 96 FB Ball 97 FB GO,3B 96 FB foul 96 FB CS 96 FB CS 98 FB CS 88 SL Ball 86 SL Ball 97 FB SS 97 FB CS I'm trying to keep my excitement in check but I really really like this kid
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 6, 2016 0:59:40 GMT -5
Based on his 136 fastballs in the AFL, here is how they compare 98.9 avg, 10.6 vertical movement, 2.3 horizontal movement Syndergaard 98.6 avg, 10.6 vertical movement, 6.9 horizontal movement Kopech 10.6 v-mov ("life", "rise", "jump") is 14th of 88 RH SP who threw 500+ last season. Salazar may be the closest fastball movement comparison, but he is only throwing 95.8. He has also thrown 44 sliders (87.7) and 14 changeups (90.6). In my analysis of FB effectiveness (based on 2013 plus the first half of 2014), that combination of speed and velocity ranks 2nd to Chapman among 450 pitchers. It's tied for 6th most movement, but everyone ahead of him but Jake McGee (who ranks 2nd on that list) threw 89 to 93. Furthermore, among RHP the movement would rank 2nd to Koji. For the combo of velocity and movement, Kelvin Herrera and Kimbrel were tied for #1 among RHP, and tied for 3 overall, but Kopech beats them by a large margin. The gap between Kopech and those two is as large as the gap between them and #17 Matt Harvey.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 6, 2016 1:24:48 GMT -5
Based on his 136 fastballs in the AFL, here is how they compare 98.9 avg, 10.6 vertical movement, 2.3 horizontal movement Syndergaard 98.6 avg, 10.6 vertical movement, 6.9 horizontal movement Kopech 10.6 v-mov ("life", "rise", "jump") is 14th of 88 RH SP who threw 500+ last season. Salazar may be the closest fastball movement comparison, but he is only throwing 95.8. He has also thrown 44 sliders (87.7) and 14 changeups (90.6). In my analysis of FB effectiveness (based on 2013 plus the first half of 2014), that combination of speed and velocity ranks 2nd to Chapman among 450 pitchers. It's tied for 6th most movement, but everyone ahead of him but Jake McGee (who ranks 2nd on that list) threw 89 to 93. Furthermore, among RHP the movement would rank 2nd to Koji. For the combo of velocity and movement, Kelvin Herrera and Kimbrel were tied for #1 among RHP, and tied for 3 overall, but Kopech beats them by a large margin. The gap between Kopech and those two is as large as the gap between them and #17 Matt Harvey. What do you have when comparing Kopech only to starters (other than Harvey)? Among starters, the only one I find that compares is Syndegaard. I actually have Kopech ahead of Syndegaard by a fair bit.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 6, 2016 9:10:24 GMT -5
In my analysis of FB effectiveness (based on 2013 plus the first half of 2014), that combination of speed and velocity ranks 2nd to Chapman among 450 pitchers. It's tied for 6th most movement, but everyone ahead of him but Jake McGee (who ranks 2nd on that list) threw 89 to 93. Furthermore, among RHP the movement would rank 2nd to Koji. For the combo of velocity and movement, Kelvin Herrera and Kimbrel were tied for #1 among RHP, and tied for 3 overall, but Kopech beats them by a large margin. The gap between Kopech and those two is as large as the gap between them and #17 Matt Harvey. What do you have when comparing Kopech only to starters (other than Harvey)? Among starters, the only one I find that compares is Syndegaard. I actually have Kopech ahead of Syndegaard by a fair bit. In 2013-14 Ventura had the best combo of velocity and movement. Call this VME for Velocity/Movement Effectiveness and do it relative like OPS+. You get: 117 Chapman 114 Kopech in AFL, 2016 112 McGee, Herrera 111 Kimbrel, Ventura, Carlos Martinez, Rosenthal What I'm leaving out and is a very big factor is Zone%. That's why Kopech throwing strikes like he did in the All-Star game is so important. I might redo the study with yearly data from 2008 to 2016 and a few ideas for refining the regression analysis that occurred to me later. A big source of error here is that I'm using FanGraphs tabular data, which relies on MLBAM's quick-and-dirty algorithm for separating 4-seamers (FA) from 2-seamers (FT). Even BrooksBaseball's revised classification isn't entirely trustworthy. One thing that just occurs to me is to measure the claimed movement difference between FA and FT and see how that relates to the prediction error, while at the same time combining the FA and FT for each pitcher and see if that gives a better prediction. The idea is to spot the guys who are actually not throwing two different pitches -- when their FA is divided into two different pitches, it obviously gives incorrect movement parameters.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 6, 2016 13:33:46 GMT -5
If Kopech keeps pitching like he has over the remainder of the AFL, meaning pitch quality not results, this is a serious BA top 5 candidate. This can't be going unnoticed by the powers that be.
Remember, you heard it here first.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 6, 2016 15:11:50 GMT -5
If Kopech keeps pitching like he has over the remainder of the AFL, meaning pitch quality not results, this is a serious BA top 5 candidate. This can't be going unnoticed by the powers that be. Remember, you heard it here first. Agree, you did tip me off first, after (what I consider) Kopech's earliest dominant start, by posting here that Kopech could definitely get MLB batters out. Nice catch. Plus, I think you were the first Kopech profile pic. In August, I heard industry scouts already saying that Kopech was the top milb pitching prospect, ahead of Giolito (and it's not close). Kopech's coaches have long marvelled at his spin rate. Now his AFL pitch data gives a first look at why. Thanks to the member soxscout for pointing me to mlbfarm.com, BTW. Good stuff there, and free.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Nov 6, 2016 16:49:37 GMT -5
Kopech *might* have a case to skip AA and go right to Pawtucket to start the year. White Sox did it with Rodon and Giants did it with Lincecum back in the day.
If you think about it, Kopech has just put up 16 dominating innings at a level that features either legit AA prospects or very advanced High A guys. If he can continue with his progression into spring training and avoid off the field crap, I wouldn't be surprised with an aggressive promotion.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 6, 2016 19:18:50 GMT -5
16! dominant inning sin the AFL? I would pencil him in to the Sox rotation next year.
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Post by doctorduck21 on Nov 6, 2016 19:30:13 GMT -5
While I think Kopech has a real shot at making the majors late next year. I would still start him at AA, at least for a month or so. See if this kind of dominance continues or if it's just a hot streak. He's definitely done far better then I thought in 2016. However 2018 would still be my guess as to when he's major league ready but that could change
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Nov 6, 2016 20:00:11 GMT -5
16! dominant inning sin the AFL? I would pencil him in to the Sox rotation next year. I don't think he'll see the majors next year, and in the remote chance that he does, it'll be as a reliever after the Pawtucket season ends in late September as an October audition. I mean the guy hasn't pitched more than 70 innings in a season as a professional. It's not only the 16 dominant innings in the AFL, it's the overall dominance he's shown all year. And I didn't advocate for it, I just said that it *might* be a possibility and that it wouldn't be surprising if it happened.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 6, 2016 20:27:50 GMT -5
A case could be made for Pawtucket over Portland based on weather. I'm sure that the average temps in Pawtucket are considerably higher in April/May there. Since the pitcher initiates the action, there's no real difference in pitches he'll throw, only the level of competition.
Assuming the CBA doesn't change on this, the earliest he would see Boston is mid to late July to avoid super-two status.
Again, assuming he is pitching like this next year, I'd expect them to limit his innings and give him the old DL stint in early June. There's no telling how many innings he pitched in 2015 because he was throwing simulated games during his PED suspension (I read that someplace, sorry, no link), that's not against the rules. That's also where he developed his change-up and dropped the curve.
ADD: It's not a question of how much the batters were dominated, it's a question of the quality of the pitches (speed & movement) and their location. Either he can get major league hitters out or he can't. If there aren't too many mistake pitches, the quality of his repertoire in the AFL would dominate major league hitters as well.
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Post by tookme55 on Nov 6, 2016 20:35:21 GMT -5
What would be the ceiling for him in terms of # of pitches next year? 100-120? Do you call him up late to just pitch in relief?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 6, 2016 21:34:53 GMT -5
I found this interesting since he's the baseline comp.
Noah Syndergaard after his age 21 season:
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Future Value 65 / 70 ...50 / 55....50 / 55....45 / 50+....60 *
This was Kopech's age 20 season (closer to 19 1/2). Noah was about 18 months older.
* per Fangraphs
Call me crazy (you wouldn't be the first) but the more I look at Brooksbaseball and eric's work above the more I'm convinced that this is an "8" ceiling pitcher, right now.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 7, 2016 4:56:07 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 7, 2016 5:52:33 GMT -5
Interesting that the stadium gun had him generally at 99 but the scouts had him at 100 five times. Also, pitch fx shows no changeups and Kopech said he threw some: "Pitching against the best guys in Minor League Baseball, it's fun to compete with them and see how your stuff matches up," Kopech said. "I tried to mix in some changeups, mix in some sliders, change eye levels. Most guys try to sit on my fastball, so I tried to put my other pitches in early to throw them off and keep them off my fastball."
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 7, 2016 7:01:27 GMT -5
If Kopech keeps pitching like he has over the remainder of the AFL, meaning pitch quality not results, this is a serious BA top 5 candidate. This can't be going unnoticed by the powers that be. Remember, you heard it here first. Agree, you did tip me off first, after (what I consider) Kopech's earliest dominant start, by posting here that Kopech could definitely get MLB batters out. Nice catch. Plus, I think you were the first Kopech profile pic. In August, I heard industry scouts already saying that Kopech was the top milb pitching prospect, ahead of Giolito (and it's not close). Kopech's coaches have long marvelled at his spin rate. Now his AFL pitch data gives a first look at why. Thanks to the member soxscout for pointing me to mlbfarm.com, BTW. Good stuff there, and free. Not to brag, but I've had a Kopech Avatar since December 2015 when we traded my boy Cecchini. Back then everyone was asking me who that was because no one had a clue. Maybe I wasn't first, but I sure don't remember seeing any back then.
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Post by m1keyboots on Nov 7, 2016 7:48:11 GMT -5
This is a little nitpicking, but it feels like he should be fiddling with a change more. I see a guy throw sliders so much and it just makes me cringe
Maybe some more 2 seamers and change ups---shorter innings etc etc
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 7, 2016 10:05:20 GMT -5
I'll be interested in seeing him pitch against major leaguers in spring training.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 7, 2016 11:29:02 GMT -5
I'll be interested in seeing him pitch against major leaguers in spring training. Yes that would answer some questions. A n d if he does prove his promise, give him a working plan for getting to the Majors 2017, or not. I sincerely hope DO and Wren can keep their trading hands off the top 10 prospects.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 7, 2016 21:12:00 GMT -5
I'll be interested in seeing him pitch against major leaguers in spring training. Yes that would answer some questions. A n d if he does prove his promise, give him a working plan for getting to the Majors 2017, or not. I sincerely hope DO and Wren can keep their trading hands off the top 10 prospects. I'm guessing that Kopech is the most untouchable of our prospects because of being a pitcher. On more than one occasion, in interviews with DD, he mentioned that the Sox were aware of the fact that the position player pipeline has significantly exceeded the pitching pipeline in recent years. That's one of the primary reasons for bringing in Bannister in the first place.
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Post by 11mikem on Nov 8, 2016 10:35:26 GMT -5
And for trading away Anderson Espinoza for a number five starter/bullpen arm? That sure showed the priority of keeping and developing the pitching pipeline.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2016 13:07:19 GMT -5
Interesting that the stadium gun had him generally at 99 but the scouts had him at 100 five times. Also, pitch fx shows no changeups and Kopech said he threw some: "Pitching against the best guys in Minor League Baseball, it's fun to compete with them and see how your stuff matches up," Kopech said. "I tried to mix in some changeups, mix in some sliders, change eye levels. Most guys try to sit on my fastball, so I tried to put my other pitches in early to throw them off and keep them off my fastball." Pitch/fx does say he threw 2 changeups in the 3rd. Inning Pitch No Vel Hm Vm 3 FB 7 100.7 -7.4 12.2 4 FB 8 98.6 -7.5 10.7 3 CH 2 93.3 -9.0 6.0 3 SL 1 91.8 -0.2 2.3 4 SL 2 88.6 0.4 0.3
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