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Post by telluricrook on Nov 12, 2016 15:19:42 GMT -5
It's to good to be true. He is too wild. I just don't see it happening. As a Red Sox fan I wish he can fix that issue but he just doesn't have it in him.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 12, 2016 18:01:25 GMT -5
I just don't see it happening. As a Red Sox fan I wish he can fix that issue but he just doesn't have it in him. He's 20. He has like 100 pro innings. That's at least as ridiculous as deepjohn's claim that he only walks people because they never swing and umpires are too confused to throw strikes. |
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 12, 2016 19:33:27 GMT -5
I just don't see it happening. As a Red Sox fan I wish he can fix that issue but he just doesn't have it in him. He's 20. He has like 100 pro innings. That's at least as ridiculous as deepjohn's claim that he only walks people because they never swing and umpires are too confused to throw strikes. Hey, was that a backhanded compliment? I'll take it. Yes, "deepjohn's claim" is that walk rate, command/control and so on, are not predictive for Kopech, as a 20 year old pitcher in the Carolina league. There is too much random noise, and too many confounding co-variables. And there is no public access to the Carolina league pitchf/x data that might let us learn more. If you want to focus on command/control, then MiLB K-BB% (over about 120 TBF) should be predictive, I think, of what Ks and walks (or command/control) will eventually normalize to, given a translation from MiLB level (and age) to MLB. Yes, I understand that probably sounds ridiculously simple to people who scout, but it's the best quick reference I know of so far. Just trying to be helpful, FWIW. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2016 21:33:33 GMT -5
He's 20. He has like 100 pro innings. That's at least as ridiculous as deepjohn's claim that he only walks people because they never swing and umpires are too confused to throw strikes. Hey, was that a backhanded compliment? I'll take it. Yes, "deepjohn's claim" is that walk rate, command/control and so on, are not predictive for Kopech, as a 20 year old pitcher in the Carolina league. There is too much random noise, and too many confounding co-variables. And there is no public access to the Carolina league pitchf/x data that might let us learn more. If you want to focus on command/control, then MiLB K-BB% (over about 120 TBF) should be predictive, I think, of what Ks and walks (or command/control) will eventually normalize to, given a translation from MiLB level (and age) to MLB. Yes, I understand that probably sounds ridiculously simple to people who scout, but it's the best quick reference I know of so far. Just trying to be helpful, FWIW. Honestly I think you disregard the walks because it doesn't suit your narrative. The walks are real issues that if not addressed will definitely undermine his career. Steve Dalkowski could strike everybody out too but he couldn't control his pitches and his motion wasn't the easiest and he never amounted to what his arm's potential was. Maybe Kopech harnesses his control but to come up with a bunch of excuses for it is kind of silly. The kid has some serious bouts of control. The only thing I've noticed is when he has his control he's unhittable and has the makings of an ace, but when he lacks control he totally lacks control. The kind of problem that makes him unable to escape the 1st inning in A ball, and certainly the kind of problem that will plague him if it's not resolved. If it were easy to resolve Henry Owens would already be in the rotation for the Sox. It's not that simple. Sometimes pitchers harness their control and examples of that would be Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, but there are plenty of pitchers who could never find that control consistently and it could prevent him from being a starting pitcher, because if it takes him 20 pitches to get thru an inning he won't make it past the 5th most starts. Understand I like Kopech and have no real interest in seeing him traded, but I hardly think he's a slam dunk to be an ace starting pitcher. It could happen and I leave that possibility open but you can't pretend that there aren't real issues for him to overcome to get there and it could definitely prevent him from reaching his full potential if not conquered. |
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Post by telson13 on Nov 12, 2016 23:31:17 GMT -5
Hey, was that a backhanded compliment? I'll take it. Yes, "deepjohn's claim" is that walk rate, command/control and so on, are not predictive for Kopech, as a 20 year old pitcher in the Carolina league. There is too much random noise, and too many confounding co-variables. And there is no public access to the Carolina league pitchf/x data that might let us learn more. If you want to focus on command/control, then MiLB K-BB% (over about 120 TBF) should be predictive, I think, of what Ks and walks (or command/control) will eventually normalize to, given a translation from MiLB level (and age) to MLB. Yes, I understand that probably sounds ridiculously simple to people who scout, but it's the best quick reference I know of so far. Just trying to be helpful, FWIW. Honestly I think you disregard the walks because it doesn't suit your narrative. The walks are real issues that if not addressed will definitely undermine his career. Steve Dalkowski could strike everybody out too but he couldn't control his pitches and his motion wasn't the easiest and he never amounted to what his arm's potential was. Maybe Kopech harnesses his control but to come up with a bunch of excuses for it is kind of silly. The kid has some serious bouts of control. The only thing I've noticed is when he has his control he's unhittable and has the makings of an ace, but when he lacks control he totally lacks control. The kind of problem that makes him unable to escape the 1st inning in A ball, and certainly the kind of problem that will plague him if it's not resolved. If it were easy to resolve Henry Owens would already be in the rotation for the Sox. It's not that simple. Sometimes pitchers harness their control and examples of that would be Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, but there are plenty of pitchers who could never find that control consistently and it could prevent him from being a starting pitcher, because if it takes him 20 pitches to get thru an inning he won't make it past the 5th most starts. Understand I like Kopech and have no real interest in seeing him traded, but I hardly think he's a slam dunk to be an ace starting pitcher. It could happen and I leave that possibility open but you can't pretend that there aren't real issues for him to overcome to get there and it could definitely prevent him from reaching his full potential if not conquered. Love the Dalkowski reference. What a weird story. |
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Post by telson13 on Nov 12, 2016 23:42:18 GMT -5
Hey, was that a backhanded compliment? I'll take it. Yes, "deepjohn's claim" is that walk rate, command/control and so on, are not predictive for Kopech, as a 20 year old pitcher in the Carolina league. There is too much random noise, and too many confounding co-variables. And there is no public access to the Carolina league pitchf/x data that might let us learn more. If you want to focus on command/control, then MiLB K-BB% (over about 120 TBF) should be predictive, I think, of what Ks and walks (or command/control) will eventually normalize to, given a translation from MiLB level (and age) to MLB. Yes, I understand that probably sounds ridiculously simple to people who scout, but it's the best quick reference I know of so far. Just trying to be helpful, FWIW. Honestly I think you disregard the walks because it doesn't suit your narrative. The walks are real issues that if not addressed will definitely undermine his career. Steve Dalkowski could strike everybody out too but he couldn't control his pitches and his motion wasn't the easiest and he never amounted to what his arm's potential was. Maybe Kopech harnesses his control but to come up with a bunch of excuses for it is kind of silly. The kid has some serious bouts of control. The only thing I've noticed is when he has his control he's unhittable and has the makings of an ace, but when he lacks control he totally lacks control. The kind of problem that makes him unable to escape the 1st inning in A ball, and certainly the kind of problem that will plague him if it's not resolved. If it were easy to resolve Henry Owens would already be in the rotation for the Sox. It's not that simple. Sometimes pitchers harness their control and examples of that would be Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, but there are plenty of pitchers who could never find that control consistently and it could prevent him from being a starting pitcher, because if it takes him 20 pitches to get thru an inning he won't make it past the 5th most starts. Understand I like Kopech and have no real interest in seeing him traded, but I hardly think he's a slam dunk to be an ace starting pitcher. It could happen and I leave that possibility open but you can't pretend that there aren't real issues for him to overcome to get there and it could definitely prevent him from reaching his full potential if not conquered. Of course, even if he makes the BA top-20, it's something like a 20% chance that he becomes a 1 or 2. There's a strong suggestion that pitching prospects' prospects (heh heh) have improved with time, so maybe that number is low, but I doubt it's more than 33%. At least, he's a very good bet to be useful (over 70% in this analysis) camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html?m=1 |
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 13, 2016 1:23:10 GMT -5
Honestly I think you disregard the walks because it doesn't suit your narrative. The walks are real issues that if not addressed will definitely undermine his career. Steve Dalkowski could strike everybody out too but he couldn't control his pitches and his motion wasn't the easiest and he never amounted to what his arm's potential was. Maybe Kopech harnesses his control but to come up with a bunch of excuses for it is kind of silly. The kid has some serious bouts of control. The only thing I've noticed is when he has his control he's unhittable and has the makings of an ace, but when he lacks control he totally lacks control. The kind of problem that makes him unable to escape the 1st inning in A ball, and certainly the kind of problem that will plague him if it's not resolved. If it were easy to resolve Henry Owens would already be in the rotation for the Sox. It's not that simple. Sometimes pitchers harness their control and examples of that would be Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, but there are plenty of pitchers who could never find that control consistently and it could prevent him from being a starting pitcher, because if it takes him 20 pitches to get thru an inning he won't make it past the 5th most starts. Understand I like Kopech and have no real interest in seeing him traded, but I hardly think he's a slam dunk to be an ace starting pitcher. It could happen and I leave that possibility open but you can't pretend that there aren't real issues for him to overcome to get there and it could definitely prevent him from reaching his full potential if not conquered. Love the Dalkowski reference. What a weird story. Is it this Dalkowski, who had literally a 0 or even negative K-BB% when he was 20-21? Those were some crazy times. I think guys like that would not even be drafted now, right? |
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2016 2:31:07 GMT -5
Love the Dalkowski reference. What a weird story. Is it this Dalkowski, who had literally a 0 or even negative K-BB% when he was 20-21? Those were some crazy times. I think guys like that would not even be drafted now, right? Yup. Supposedly threw 108. Also supposedly according to Ted Williams, easily the hardest thrower he ever saw. Blew his arm out at 24 or 25, and allegedly had a Boggs-esque drinking habit to boot. And coke-bottle glasses. |
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2016 2:38:19 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2016 2:45:28 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2016 2:54:45 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2016 8:35:58 GMT -5
Hah, Cistulli references the 105 mph pitch! Is that like a running gag now, akin to Al Bundy's four touchdowns in one game?
Much like "Canton's Bobby Witt" I am going to refer to him by his full title "Michael Kopech who reportedly threw a pitch 105 miles per hour."
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 13, 2016 11:58:51 GMT -5
Kopech is so highly muscular (if the pics are not altered) that I wonder if that muscularity is not contributing to his control issues or the referred to violence of his delivery. I don't imagine that he is very flexible. Most have likely heard stories of beefed up football players being unable to hit a golf ball much more that 200 yards due to loss of flexibility and substitute muscular exertion to try to move the club head.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2016 20:10:07 GMT -5
Hah, Cistulli references the 105 mph pitch! Is that like a running gag now, akin to Al Bundy's four touchdowns in one game? Much like "Canton's Bobby Witt" I am going to refer to him by his full title "Michael Kopech who reportedly threw a pitch 105 miles per hour." He also referenced our 2015 report from instructs as if it were from this year, but whatever. Here's Callis on Kopech's command issues in his last start. m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/208677678/bostons-michael-kopech-gets-past-command/He notes that Kopech got bailed out some by his catcher, who threw out three attempted basestealers. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2016 4:39:41 GMT -5
Hah, Cistulli references the 105 mph pitch! Is that like a running gag now, akin to Al Bundy's four touchdowns in one game? Much like "Canton's Bobby Witt" I am going to refer to him by his full title "Michael Kopech who reportedly threw a pitch 105 miles per hour." He also referenced our 2015 report from instructs as if it were from this year, but whatever. Here's Callis on Kopech's command issues in his last start. m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/208677678/bostons-michael-kopech-gets-past-command/He notes that Kopech got bailed out some by his catcher, who threw out three attempted basestealers. He seems (here and in other places like BA's All-Star game coverage) to recognize issues and understand the basic problem. In this case, not so much the command but, the recognition that he was unable to make adjustments. From BA's coverage:
His performance in the Fall Stars Game reflected what Kopech came into the AFL looking to improve.
“I worked on a lot of stuff since I’ve been here,” Kopech said, “the main thing being fastball command and throwing the changeup in fastball counts. It’s been good to get consistent with the third pitch and that’s something that will work well next year and be another tool for me.”
Kopech missed more than two months at the beginning of the season after a spring training altercation with a teammate resulted in a broken hand, but he believes that the time on the sidelines was not wasted.
“I’m big on the mental side of the game and we have a very good mental skills coach in Justin Su’a,” Kopech said. “He sat down with me almost every day the whole time I was out and we just talked about things and he got me not only to where I was more confident in myself but ready for a comeback.” Read more at www.baseballamerica.com/minors/brent-honeywell-michael-kopech-dominate-fall-stars-game/#OcwB0UOGzDDL8MtM.99 |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2016 11:05:22 GMT -5
Hah, Cistulli references the 105 mph pitch! Is that like a running gag now, akin to Al Bundy's four touchdowns in one game? Much like "Canton's Bobby Witt" I am going to refer to him by his full title "Michael Kopech who reportedly threw a pitch 105 miles per hour." Since I'm kind of on the fence about the 105, take this with a salt grain. After the game (paraphrasing here), one of the coaches (not Abbott) said that when the pitcher charting said 105, he looked at the gun because the 3 and 5 are similar and it was clearly 105. After the game, he said he confirmed it with someone else (I'm guessing the other team's gun but he didn't say). Also, one of the BA articles references multiple guns. If it was actually 105 as a barely 20 year old, we'll likely see it again as a 21 year old. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 14, 2016 12:22:36 GMT -5
Hah, Cistulli references the 105 mph pitch! Is that like a running gag now, akin to Al Bundy's four touchdowns in one game? Much like "Canton's Bobby Witt" I am going to refer to him by his full title "Michael Kopech who reportedly threw a pitch 105 miles per hour." Since I'm kind of on the fence about the 105, take this with a salt grain. After the game (paraphrasing here), one of the coaches (not Abbott) said that when the pitcher charting said 105, he looked at the gun because the 3 and 5 are similar and it was clearly 105. After the game, he said he confirmed it with someone else (I'm guessing the other team's gun but he didn't say). Also, one of the BA articles references multiple guns. If it was actually 105 as a barely 20 year old, we'll likely see it again as a 21 year old. 1) My source said the same thing re: both guns behind the plate having 105. They confirmed it right after the pitch, not after the game. 2) It was a single pitch. This has gotten so blown out of proportion it's incredible. Where he sits and can touch regularly are so much more important than what he may or may not have done (the fact that both guns had it only makes it a little bit more likely that he actually hit that velo, imo) on a single pitch and failed to do before or after that it really Most important takeaways for me so far in the AFL for Kopech: 1) When he has his command, he's capable of dominating the AFL, which is something. Doesn't mean MLB dominance by any stretch, but it's something. 2) The change is improving, potentially. This is crucial for his development as a starter. 3) He's still prone to losing mechanics (or something) leading to bouts of wildness he's unable to work out of. Fixing this is also crucial for him developing as a starter. 4) Slider can be a mf'er but is still not entirely consistent. I'd say net positive, but it's not like he's raising his stock significantly unless you weren't paying attention during the season. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2016 13:19:16 GMT -5
To me the development of the change and the stark difference in command over the regular season raises his stock significantly. (I also like the attitude which was an unknown because of his history). We'll have to agree to disagree but I think he'll be top 20 in the national rankings if not higher. There's big time buzz going on here. I also think he'll pass Devers in their rankings and that has nothing to do with Devers.
ADD: Nobody is saying that one pitch is more important than where he sits (98.7 is nothing to sneeze at) but I don't think it's at all blown out of proportion when you consider that a just turned 20 year old might have thrown the fastest pitch ever recorded. (Currently 105.1 by Chapman vs. a debatable 105.? for Kopech). That is significant and not at all out of proportion.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 14, 2016 18:09:18 GMT -5
Since I'm kind of on the fence about the 105, take this with a salt grain. After the game (paraphrasing here), one of the coaches (not Abbott) said that when the pitcher charting said 105, he looked at the gun because the 3 and 5 are similar and it was clearly 105. After the game, he said he confirmed it with someone else (I'm guessing the other team's gun but he didn't say). Also, one of the BA articles references multiple guns. If it was actually 105 as a barely 20 year old, we'll likely see it again as a 21 year old. 1) My source said the same thing re: both guns behind the plate having 105. They confirmed it right after the pitch, not after the game. 2) It was a single pitch. This has gotten so blown out of proportion it's incredible. Where he sits and can touch regularly are so much more important than what he may or may not have done (the fact that both guns had it only makes it a little bit more likely that he actually hit that velo, imo) on a single pitch and failed to do before or after that it really Most important takeaways for me so far in the AFL for Kopech: 1) When he has his command, he's capable of dominating the AFL, which is something. Doesn't mean MLB dominance by any stretch, but it's something. 2) The change is improving, potentially. This is crucial for his development as a starter. 3) He's still prone to losing mechanics (or something) leading to bouts of wildness he's unable to work out of. Fixing this is also crucial for him developing as a starter. 4) Slider can be a mf'er but is still not entirely consistent. I'd say net positive, but it's not like he's raising his stock significantly unless you weren't paying attention during the season. Yeah, I think people are getting caught up on if the 105 was "real." I'm pretty confident that it was an accurate reading. But that doesn't make it reproducible. As someone with command/mechanical issues who's young, it wouldn't be surprising if there was a confluence of things "just going right" where he reached his true physical peak, if only briefly. I was a collegiate sprinter, and set a conference record in my event one winter. But I was often injured, so I had some issues with my form, and that race wasn't close to the fastest I ever ran. THAT would have been after getting in an argument with a girlfriend, where I just felt like Forrest Gump and took off running. For whatever reason, be it total focus or adrenaline or what, I don't need a timer to tell me that everything was just "ON" for that brief 10-15 seconds. If I'd done that in a race consistently, I'd have been a whole different class of runner. Night and day. I think Kopech's 105 was like that. It all came together. Doesn't mean he'll do it again, but with ontinued development, he might come close more often. |
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Post by joshbbr on Nov 15, 2016 15:40:23 GMT -5
1) My source said the same thing re: both guns behind the plate having 105. They confirmed it right after the pitch, not after the game. 2) It was a single pitch. This has gotten so blown out of proportion it's incredible. Where he sits and can touch regularly are so much more important than what he may or may not have done (the fact that both guns had it only makes it a little bit more likely that he actually hit that velo, imo) on a single pitch and failed to do before or after that it really Most important takeaways for me so far in the AFL for Kopech: 1) When he has his command, he's capable of dominating the AFL, which is something. Doesn't mean MLB dominance by any stretch, but it's something. 2) The change is improving, potentially. This is crucial for his development as a starter. 3) He's still prone to losing mechanics (or something) leading to bouts of wildness he's unable to work out of. Fixing this is also crucial for him developing as a starter. 4) Slider can be a mf'er but is still not entirely consistent. I'd say net positive, but it's not like he's raising his stock significantly unless you weren't paying attention during the season. Yeah, I think people are getting caught up on if the 105 was "real." I'm pretty confident that it was an accurate reading. But that doesn't make it reproducible. As someone with command/mechanical issues who's young, it wouldn't be surprising if there was a confluence of things "just going right" where he reached his true physical peak, if only briefly. I was a collegiate sprinter, and set a conference record in my event one winter. But I was often injured, so I had some issues with my form, and that race wasn't close to the fastest I ever ran. THAT would have been after getting in an argument with a girlfriend, where I just felt like Forrest Gump and took off running. For whatever reason, be it total focus or adrenaline or what, I don't need a timer to tell me that everything was just "ON" for that brief 10-15 seconds. If I'd done that in a race consistently, I'd have been a whole different class of runner. Night and day. I think Kopech's 105 was like that. It all came together. Doesn't mean he'll do it again, but with ontinued development, he might come close more often. You said what I was thinking pretty well. 105 is a feat but you don't actually need him to hit that, nor should you want to. You wan't to see him rely more on lower body mechanics to push the energy up the chain more than the upper body that he is right now. You want to see him land on the front foot seperate from the shoulder opening consistently on the same spot. When you see those two things in action you are looking at a 98-102MPH average pitcher that just increased his control and probably innings capability significantly. Kopech is an athletic freak but he isn't quite there yet. Reminds me a lot of where the Nats are at with Reynaldo Lopez right now. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2016 0:08:53 GMT -5
Last day or the season today (Thursday). Surprise will clinch the West unless they lose and Glendale (on the road) wins. And if they do clinch, it seems like Kopech will start the championship game Saturday at 1:00 PM on the MLB Network.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2016 1:54:39 GMT -5
To me the development of the change and the stark difference in command over the regular season raises his stock significantly. (I also like the attitude which was an unknown because of his history). We'll have to agree to disagree but I think he'll be top 20 in the national rankings if not higher. There's big time buzz going on here. I also think he'll pass Devers in their rankings and that has nothing to do with Devers. ADD: Nobody is saying that one pitch is more important than where he sits (98.7 is nothing to sneeze at) but I don't think it's at all blown out of proportion when you consider that a just turned 20 year old might have thrown the fastest pitch ever recorded. (Currently 105.1 by Chapman vs. a debatable 105.? for Kopech). That is significant and not at all out of proportion. Called strikeout rate (of batters faced): .054, first 5 Salem starts .094, other 7 Salem starts (including post-season) .178, AFL (including All-Star game) Also, his best Strike % games, in order: .763, AFL 11/1 .714, AFL 10/15 .700, AFL All-Star game .699, Salem 8/18 (11 SO, 0 BB) .694, AFL, 10/21 .679, Salem, 8/2 (10 SO, 1 BB, 1 H) .673, AFL, 10/27 That's all of his AFL games except his last (which was second worst after his Salem regular season finale). He's gone from .609 to .643. If you toss out the best and worst game of each, he's gone from .627 to .693. The median has gone from .618 to .694. How good is .693 / .694? Kershaw's .692 was 7th in MLB of 382 pitchers with 40+ IP. If you look at all of his games, the two regular season finales are huge outliers. Without them, the distribution has almost no skew at all, and the two outliers are 3.1 and 5.1 standard deviations below it. He's not a guy with awful command problems, but a guy who once every dozen starts can't find his mechanics at all. That would seem to be fixable. At Salem he had 24th percentile strike percentage, relative to MLB pitchers this year (excluding the one start where he had no mechanics at all). In the AFL, with the same caveat and with only 214 pitches ... he's been 99th percentile. You can regress that to the mean quite a bit and it's still startling progress. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2016 2:45:32 GMT -5
Honestly I think you disregard the walks because it doesn't suit your narrative. The walks are real issues that if not addressed will definitely undermine his career. Steve Dalkowski could strike everybody out too but he couldn't control his pitches and his motion wasn't the easiest and he never amounted to what his arm's potential was. Maybe Kopech harnesses his control but to come up with a bunch of excuses for it is kind of silly. The kid has some serious bouts of control. The only thing I've noticed is when he has his control he's unhittable and has the makings of an ace, but when he lacks control he totally lacks control. The kind of problem that makes him unable to escape the 1st inning in A ball, and certainly the kind of problem that will plague him if it's not resolved. If it were easy to resolve Henry Owens would already be in the rotation for the Sox. It's not that simple. Sometimes pitchers harness their control and examples of that would be Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, but there are plenty of pitchers who could never find that control consistently and it could prevent him from being a starting pitcher, because if it takes him 20 pitches to get thru an inning he won't make it past the 5th most starts. Understand I like Kopech and have no real interest in seeing him traded, but I hardly think he's a slam dunk to be an ace starting pitcher. It could happen and I leave that possibility open but you can't pretend that there aren't real issues for him to overcome to get there and it could definitely prevent him from reaching his full potential if not conquered. Of course, even if he makes the BA top-20, it's something like a 20% chance that he becomes a 1 or 2. There's a strong suggestion that pitching prospects' prospects (heh heh) have improved with time, so maybe that number is low, but I doubt it's more than 33%. At least, he's a very good bet to be useful (over 70% in this analysis) camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html?m=1Of course, very few of the guys in those studies had a FB with velocity that would rank 2nd in MLB (of 382 pitchers with 40+ IP; he just edges Syndergaard) with movement that ties for 11th -- a combination almost unheard of, as the median rank of guys who threw 95 or harder was 177th (between Syndergaard and Herrera). Chapman is the movement leader of that group - and he ranks 47th. And then, of course, there's the strike %. If you remove the last game as an outlier, you've got ... Clayton Kershaw's strike % and FB movement (+2%), but he throws it at 98.7 instead of 93.8. Or ... Aroldis Chapman's FB, less 2.5% velocity but with 7% more movement, with an even better Strike % (Chapman ranked 19th). Chapman's FB was in a class by itself until Kopech showed up in the AFL with one that is potentially even better. He just needs to maintain the command he showed before his last start (and he could well regress), and reduce the days where he has no command at all to a more typical level (never for most guys, maybe once a year for others. Although I want to study that, maybe). |
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 17, 2016 3:09:58 GMT -5
Of course, even if he makes the BA top-20, it's something like a 20% chance that he becomes a 1 or 2. There's a strong suggestion that pitching prospects' prospects (heh heh) have improved with time, so maybe that number is low, but I doubt it's more than 33%. At least, he's a very good bet to be useful (over 70% in this analysis) camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html?m=1Of course, very few of the guys in those studies had a FB with velocity that would rank 2nd in MLB (of 382 pitchers with 40+ IP; he just edges Syndergaard) with movement that ties for 11th -- a combination almost unheard of, as the median rank of guys who threw 95 or harder was 177th (between Syndergaard and Herrera). Chapman is the movement leader of that group - and he ranks 47th. And then, of course, there's the strike %. If you remove the last game as an outlier, you've got ... Clayton Kershaw's strike % and FB movement (+2%), but he throws it at 98.7 instead of 93.8. Or ... Aroldis Chapman's FB, less 2.5% velocity but with 7% more movement, with an even better Strike % (Chapman ranked 19th). Chapman's FB was in a class by itself until Kopech showed up in the AFL with one that is potentially even better. He just needs to maintain the command he showed before his last start (and he could well regress), and reduce the days where he has no command at all to a more typical level (never for most guys, maybe once a year for others. Although I want to study that, maybe). I tend to go with the Jamesian idea that dominant pitchers (almost) never actually have bad games. Once I see that a pitcher is dominant (and of course, that's extremely rare), then I conclude the walks will not matter. I thought we could infer early on that Kopech is dominant from lack of hard contact and high whiff %. Now, we're seeing the pitchf/x to go with it. It's also why I think that with such a young pitcher, who is doing so much so early, when he has an apparent "bad" game, you can diagnose it backwards to a dead-arm injury. Yes, it could be called "mechanical" or "fixable" but that's sort of the same thing, with a young dominant pitcher. For a dominant pitcher, a dead-arm injury makes it look like the mechanics went wrong, when it's actually the swelling in the joint that's causing the problem. |
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 17, 2016 3:12:50 GMT -5
To me the development of the change and the stark difference in command over the regular season raises his stock significantly. (I also like the attitude which was an unknown because of his history). We'll have to agree to disagree but I think he'll be top 20 in the national rankings if not higher. There's big time buzz going on here. I also think he'll pass Devers in their rankings and that has nothing to do with Devers. ADD: Nobody is saying that one pitch is more important than where he sits (98.7 is nothing to sneeze at) but I don't think it's at all blown out of proportion when you consider that a just turned 20 year old might have thrown the fastest pitch ever recorded. (Currently 105.1 by Chapman vs. a debatable 105.? for Kopech). That is significant and not at all out of proportion. Called strikeout rate (of batters faced): .054, first 5 Salem starts .094, other 7 Salem starts (including post-season) .178, AFL (including All-Star game) Also, his best Strike % games, in order: .763, AFL 11/1 .714, AFL 10/15 .700, AFL All-Star game .699, Salem 8/18 (11 SO, 0 BB) .694, AFL, 10/21 .679, Salem, 8/2 (10 SO, 1 BB, 1 H) .673, AFL, 10/27 That's all of his AFL games except his last (which was second worst after his Salem regular season finale). He's gone from .609 to .643. If you toss out the best and worst game of each, he's gone from .627 to .693. The median has gone from .618 to .694. How good is .693 / .694? Kershaw's .692 was 7th in MLB of 382 pitchers with 40+ IP. If you look at all of his games, the two regular season finales are huge outliers. Without them, the distribution has almost no skew at all, and the two outliers are 3.1 and 5.1 standard deviations below it. He's not a guy with awful command problems, but a guy who once every dozen starts can't find his mechanics at all. That would seem to be fixable. At Salem he had 24th percentile strike percentage, relative to MLB pitchers this year (excluding the one start where he had no mechanics at all). In the AFL, with the same caveat and with only 214 pitches ... he's been 99th percentile. You can regress that to the mean quite a bit and it's still startling progress. Thanks for all this work. You never cease to amaze. |
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